Giro 2017, stage 16: Rovetta – Bormio 222 km

[killswitch]

Re:

The elastic will snap in the valley in Switzerland if Nairo is ahead with teammates.

Umbrail looks similar to Blockhaus. The question is, what difference make the descent and the two preceding climbs... And the rest day and the two weeks of racing.
Everybody's thinking what this stage means for Quintana, but it's more interesting to think about what it means for Dumo.

The length and average gradient are similar but Blockhaus is very irregular and Umbrail while regular goes up to 2500m altitude.
Really curious how (or if) the altitude will influence Tom's climbing.

 

[Escarabajo]

There is no way that the Andorra stage at the 2015 Vuelta was harder than this one. No way. Length and altitude changes are different. The length of the climbs are different. I usually fear 1 long dragging climb than two smaller steep ones. I have seen it over the years since I have been watching cycling last 30 years.

Having said that, every rider knows the script. Tell me who doesn't. Movistar and Bahrain to put the riders up the road and Nibali and Quintana to try to bridge somewhere from the Stelvio (Mortirolo is too soon). Dumoulin will be prepared. It will come down to the Umbrail pass for a reduced group. The forum will be depressed at that moment. It will all depend on Quintana and Nibali's strength at that point. I predict that Quintana won't take as much time as everyone expects, but Dumoulin will bleed more time in the upcoming stages because of his effort on this one. With Nibali in the race it will certainly be an ambush somewhere. Will it be enough? who knows If I knew the future I would be in Las Vegas now.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

The elastic will snap in the valley in Switzerland if Nairo is ahead with teammates.

Umbrail looks similar to Blockhaus. The question is, what difference make the descent and the two preceding climbs... And the rest day and the two weeks of racing.
Everybody's thinking what this stage means for Quintana, but it's more interesting to think about what it means for Dumo.

The length and average gradient are similar but Blockhaus is very irregular and Umbrail while regular goes up to 2500m altitude.
Really curious how (or if) the altitude will influence Tom's climbing.

Yes, the altitude is another factor.
Blockhaus looked pretty regular to me. The middle third of it looked the steepest, but every third, although different in gradient, looked uniformly inclined.
Anyway, the point is - we can't claim Umbrail is the place where Quintana will crack Dumoulin.

 

[klintE]

Stelvio is the key IMO. More than 1 hour of climbing. Maybe I'm wrong but I suppose TD would rather choose three separate 20-minute climbs.
If he survive there, he will survive everything.

 

[staubsauger]

The Andorra stage at the Vuelta was raced far more conservatively. If Quintana ain't gonna attack on Stelvio he's a major goof and all those claims about him being the new Pantani were pure blasphemy.

Formolo needs to go berserk as well. Wouldn't be surprised if he attacks on Stelvio as well. Maybe with Dombrowski as relais station.

Also this is where Dombrowski, Foliforov & Hirt finally need to end their hibernation! If not they should be fired.

 

[BullsFan22]

People didn't expect Quintana to lose as much time as he did in the TT. People don't expect Dumoulin to lose so much in this stage, but like the TT, there could be a surprise.

For the sake of excitement, I hope Dumoulin doesn't lose too much time before the final TT. If he is within striking distance of Quintana before the final TT, it could be quite a battle, perhaps something similar to the Lemond/Fignon battle in the 1989 TDF.

 

[Velolover2]

Landa should already start to attack on Mortirolo.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

Nahhh, Tiago Machado will win this bike race.

In the sport of professional bike racing?

 

[HelloDolly]

Very interesting from the cycling podast on the level at the Giro

Seemingly Pinot's people had done all the calculations and felt Pinot was at the level to win the Giro and are surprised at how strong Dumoulin is

Also Bahrain say Nibali is better than he has been since 2014 and are also surprised at Dumoulin (Nibali was his strongest in 2014)

And opinion is divided as to whether Dumoulin can be broken ......Matt White thinks he can,Cataldo not so certain

What strikes me most about Dumoulin is not his climbing or TT but how confident he is ....he talks already as if he is the winner ...must have done his numbers better than the rest ....

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

This is where I think Tom will start bleeding time. The only saving grace for him is that the Canazei stage isn't that hard after the first half. A one-two punch with the Ortisei stage would have been lethal I think. Piancavallo seems to fit into the kind of stage that suits him. Basically one-climbers. There he can hang or even gain as we saw on Oropa.

Wonder if I'll be surprised though!

Bleeding is okay but not gushing. So far Quintana has minimal gains on the MTFs but if he also fails on this one to claw back reasonable time then he is relying more on Dumoulin to have one stage where he cracks badly. If Dumoulin gets through this stage with a minimal time loss it's a big win for him. Quintana knows he has to have a reasonable lead going into the TT.

 

[Jancouver]

TJ to lose 30min or DNF ... that's given. Zakarin will secure podium and Dumoutrain will control Quintana. Nib to lose big time.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

TJ to lose 30min or DNF ... that's given. Zakarin will secure podium and Dumoutrain will control Quintana. Nib to lose big time.

Somehow, what you say makes a lot of sense!

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

TJ to lose 30min or DNF ... that's given. Zakarin will secure podium and Dumoutrain will control Quintana. Nib to lose big time.

Ewan packed his bags yesterday. TJVG should have done the same. The third week is so hard even more so for riders that can't climb or are out of form.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Who knows if any of the GC guys had a chat for a common plan against Dumoilin on Tue.
A combined attack Nibali-Quintana-Pinot, working together to break the Dutch for good putting him definitely out of contention and postponing the showdown among themselves to a later stage.
Dumoilin will be soon isolated on Tue. That's his main big weakness. On a single final climb, that doesn't matter too much. But on a 220km stage? It could mean death warrant.

so far it doesn't smells like a probable showdown, more like quintana comfortably smashing nibali and pinot on upcoming mountain top finishes. not sure, they are going to bridge to nairo at all costs. I wouldn't very much be surprised to see nibali and pinot relying on dimoulin tempo climbing as they tried to do on the oropa.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Landa will win here. He looks to be in great shape and won't be marked by anyone. Of the GC riders, I think that Quintana, Dumoulin, Zakarin and Kruijswijk will prevail as the strongest.

 

[glassmoon]

Would love to see Landa to win and major Tom to lose just under 1 min.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Every time people have predicted Landa or Zakarin to do anything nothing has happened so I am going to stick with Quintana. I think that he wants bonus seconds as well and when racing is hard from the start I find it hard to belive that breakaway will manage to get very far considering that Quintana is going to send his teammates to breakaway so that he can bridge to them.

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

The Andorra stage at the Vuelta was raced far more conservatively. If Quintana ain't gonna attack on Stelvio he's a major goof and all those claims about him being the new Pantani were pure blasphemy.

Formolo needs to go berserk as well. Wouldn't be surprised if he attacks on Stelvio as well. Maybe with Dombrowski as relais station.

Also this is where Dombrowski, Foliforov & Hirt finally need to end their hibernation! If not they should be fired.

I really can't see Formolo and Hirt showing themselves to be honest. Both are aiming for Top 10 and Top 20 GC respectively and that probably requires more conservative riding rather than attacking and risk blowing up. They are currently edging their way up GC as planned.

Dombrowski and Foliforov have no such excuses however and most definitely need to start showing themselves now.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Landa to go up the the road and win the stage, while the notorious 3rd week, multiple high mountain specialists Quintana, Nibali and Kruijswijk will break lose on Stelvio and increase their gaps on Umbrailpass. Quintana to take the jersey, Landa the mountain one

 

[Cance > TheRest]

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.
Nibali should be good. It would have been better for him if the stage had come a little later in the race.
I think Bauke and Kruijswijk will fall out of the top 10.

 

[Nirvana]

I don't understand why for a stage like this there isn't the coverage from the start, going live at 13:05 (Raisport) and 13:15 (Eurosport) mean the probably we can't see the Mortirolo expecially if they start in a crazy way like last two stages.

Anyway i hope that Doumulin won't lose much time, if he mantain the lead there is an incentive for Quintana to attack in the coming stages, if Quintana will be in pink with margin tomorrow evening could be a borefest until Milano.

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

TJ to lose 30min or DNF ... that's given. Zakarin will secure podium and Dumoutrain will control Quintana. Nib to lose big time.

Zakarin will crash out somewhere in the descents like last year on the Agnello.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

The day of judgment. If Quintana does not gain 2 to 3 minutes on Dumoulin, it is starting to look difficult to win the race.

Not sure if I agree. Not yet, anyway. As of right now, I don't think 2-3 minutes is necessary for Quintana at all. Assuming Dumoulin fades like he did at the Vuelta, and "just" rides at a significantly higher level than back then, it's more about making him suffer consistently, day after day. It's more about the build-up, IMO.

 

[Dukerojo]

I think that by the end of the stage Nairo will be in pink or be within a 30 seconds of TD. If he is not within that margin, he may just take it easy on the next stages and start to think on TdF, don't forget that TdF only have 37KM total of TT.

 

[scapewalker]

How tough is the last descent anyways?
Can Nibs put some time into the likes of Pinot and Zakarin there?