Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186km

[wirral]

The fan clubs will be spacing their members out up the mountain as we type to create effective chains of pushers.

 

[dusty red roads]

I didn't watch yesterday's stage, so I didn't see Chaves condition, just read people here saying he was bad, but at the beginning of backstage pass (Mitchelton) Juul-Jenson said the climbers were told to sit up and spin the legs in the final, maybe that's at least part of the reason Chaves finished with the last. Or - he's just really cactus.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Finally a real climb. There is no way a big group can stay together on these ramps. It will soon be broken down into small groups of 2-7 riders. On the second half of the climb it should be each for his own and the best climbers should emerge.

 

[Random Direction]

Froome to win by 16 seconds. Hope not thougj

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Although now I read something Kelderman said which completely baffles me. He says Tom likes super steep climbs like the Zoncolan and actually hates long gradual climbs with non-steep percentages

https://www.ad.nl/giro/dat-steile-van-de-zoncolan-dat-vindt-tom-echt-mooi~ac54defa/

Liking something does not equal being good at it.
He might do well because he is able to do pretty steep stuff without getting out of his seat. A part of the extra energy he has to use because of his bigger weight could be offset by this advantage he has over riders who need to dance on the pedals to keep their pace up.

Unfortunately I totally agree.

I really like sex.

Too much information

 

[Kafviar]

Formolo have lost enough time already, might be able to ride away while the others mark each other. Looks to be in fine form.

 

[wirral]

Re:

Formolo have lost enough time already, might be able to ride away while the others mark each other. Looks to be in fine form.

Yes, yes, yes and yes to the 4 points in this post. Very possible.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Formolo have lost enough time already, might be able to ride away while the others mark each other. Looks to be in fine form.

Absolutely. Same scenario for Betancur.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

So how much time will Froome lose to the best GC finisher here? I’ll start the over/under at 90 seconds.

Premonition: Froome will be dragged by Wout Poels through the upper reaches of the Zoncolan, unable to attack, will blow up and lose 72 seconds. While being sheparded to the line by Poels, who will look over his shoulder nervously

72

My 96, your 72, and usually we fall flat on our faces. So win or 150? We don't know and it makes it one more reason to watch.

215 seconds

 

[RattaKuningas]

I have a feeling that Aru is going to win today. This is a very tough profile and eventhough he hasn't been very good so far, he is a real fighter, who can grind it out today.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

I really hope Sky gives Poels his freedom. He unobtrusively might have been the strongest on Zoncolan in 2014 (apart from Nairo, probably) and is always great on Angliru. He can absolutely win this.

Miguel Angel Lopez my top pick but Poels a good outside prospect.

Yes! He got to have a free role today. Could attack on one of initial climbs before reaching Zoncolan. Poels is properly the best ultra-steep mountain specialist since Horner.

He looked stronger than his captain on Angliru as well.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

So how much time will Froome lose to the best GC finisher here? I’ll start the over/under at 90 seconds.

90 seconds seems right. I actually think he will finish inside top 10.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Formolo is a good shout IMO. He looks in superb form.

 

[Rollthedice]

Had a dream last night. Tom was warming up the Zonc before the stage, we were friends. He was smiling, I told I trust him. Then he wants to go back to the hotel, on the side of the road there's a car in a ditch and a few guys trying to push it out. Tom goes to help. The car, instead of moving forwards it goes backwards and struck Tom who is taken to the hospital, the Giro is over. Then I wake up.

 

[wirral]

Re:

Had a dream last night. Tom was warming up the Zonc before the stage, we were friends. He was smiling, I told I trust him. Then he wants to go back to the hotel, on the side of the road there's a car in a ditch and a few guys trying to push it out. Tom goes to help. The car, instead of moving forwards it goes backwards and struck Tom who is taken to the hospital, the Giro is over. Then I wake up.

I know what he really went in the ditch for. I think you do too.

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

Froome to win by 16 seconds. Hope not thougj

Froome to lose 2+ minutes and bow out of the giro at the rest day. Dumoulin to win the GC battle. Sunweb have apparently worked out the watts he needs to do for each KM.....
But I have a feeling stuff is going to go down early on previous climbs, with riders trying to bridge to the break.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

My guess

1. Lopez 2. Froome (-28) (or +6.27 therefore 46th place) 3. Dumo (-56) 4. Aru (-1.24) 5. Yates (-1.41) ..... the rest.

 

[Cookster15]

Hmmm, I don't really know either. But I think Dumo has a better chance than many seem to be giving him. He seems to be getting better as the race draws on judging by how he limited his losses to Yates to Osimo. The Zonc is too steep for explosive climbers. It will be a slug-fest.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

I don't know what to expect. i just re-watched the '10 Zonc on YouTube, Basso opening a big Gap on Cuggles between 2.2 and 1.6 km to go, going from a 30" advantage to a minute. The climbers need to stretch Dumo before that to hope for significant gains. I think it will be a great stage, I hope that yaco is right. For sure, it won't mark the end of Il Giro, but it's the first true test as fatigue is starting to accumulate.

It's the fact that the easier final 2km come after the super steep middle section that makes the difference, most gys are cooked and those who still have something left can extend their lead by pushing bigger gears on the more moderate gradients. The more constant pace on the middle section won't really help Dumoulin that much, drafting is a non factor and if you don't push the same w/kg you get dropped. I hope for a hard pace already on Duron, Astana should make the race hard and I hope that FDJ have saved their firepower for this stage.
Fun fact: Nibali lost minutes on the ascent in 2007, but since then only Basso and Anton have climbed it faster.
But that's not important.
Never forget:

Ah, the best memories from the best Giro I've watched. Makes me nostalgic every time I see it again.

Today and tomorrow are the decisive stages IMO. I hope Astana or any other team will make the race hard on the previous climbs already. Then, on the Kaiser no one will be able to hide. I want carnage and hopefully Domenico or another Italian to win.

Unfortunately, all I know about today is that neither Ivan Basso nor Alberto Contador is going to win this bike race.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Re: Re:

Had a dream last night. Tom was warming up the Zonc before the stage, we were friends. He was smiling, I told I trust him. Then he wants to go back to the hotel, on the side of the road there's a car in a ditch and a few guys trying to push it out. Tom goes to help. The car, instead of moving forwards it goes backwards and struck Tom who is taken to the hospital, the Giro is over. Then I wake up.

I know what he really went in the ditch for. I think you do too.

Ha ha, great

 

[Red Rick]

Tim Wellens DNS

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186

I don't know what to expect. i just re-watched the '10 Zonc on YouTube, Basso opening a big Gap on Cuggles between 2.2 and 1.6 km to go, going from a 30" advantage to a minute. The climbers need to stretch Dumo before that to hope for significant gains. I think it will be a great stage, I hope that yaco is right. For sure, it won't mark the end of Il Giro, but it's the first true test as fatigue is starting to accumulate.

Thing is though, Dumoulin won't go over his limit on the climb like Evans did. He'll just ride his own tempo, like Basso, and not try to follow anyone's wheel too much. I feel if the climb is ridden in robobasso style then it's Yates who will suffer.

Evans probably didn't go over his limit it's just that Basso was riding like a droid.

I don't think this stage will decide the overall but it could be the final nail in the coffin for a few. Chaves may not even finish the stage, Froome who knows what he will do ? All eyes will be on Dumoulin and what his time loss will be. Be interested to see how Dennis performs.

Evans went over his limit because basso rode like a driod. Scarponi rode his own pace and came only 11 seconds behind Evans after getting distanced early on. Evans held on way beyond what he could and lost a lot more than he would've otherwise. I don't think Dumoulin will do the same, I'm expecting a repeat of his blockhaus performance

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Fat Thomas Dekker climbed the Zoncolan:
https://www.ad.nl/video/~vp37820

"This was easier when I was 15kg lighter"

 

[pink_jersey]

Cadel imploded really hard in 2010 but Dumoulin will not be that stupid. If Evans would've just ride at his own pace he wouldn't lost more than 30 or 45seconds.
I think explosive climbers will suffer but not because Zoncolan doesn't suit them. In fact, I think if ridden in a mono-mountain stage like 2011 it really suits them but today the stage before Zoncolan is really hard. Duron is no joke. After all, Anton is much more an explosive climber than a tiempo one.
I think Pinot will be the strongest today. Watch out for Bennett. I think he's really strong.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Cadel imploded really hard in 2010 but Dumoulin will not be that stupid. If Evans would've just ride at his own pace he wouldn't lost more than 30 or 45seconds.
I think explosive climbers will suffer but not because Zoncolan doesn't suit them. In fact, I think if ridden in a mono-mountain stage like 2011 it really suits them but today the stage before Zoncolan is really hard. Duron is no joke. After all, Anton is much more an explosive climber than a tiempo one.
I think Pinot will be the strongest today. Watch out for Bennett. I think he's really strong.

I don't think it's about explosive vs not explosive at all.

Igor Anton at his peak was a really underrated climber and was basically a top 5 climber in the world anywhere between the Mur de Huy and the Zoncolan.