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Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 14: Castigliano delle Stiviere – Desenzano del Garda, 31.2k (ITT)

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On paper maybe. But then one of the two mountain stages would likely be neutralized by the peloton and the TV audience would just endlessly complain. TTs can't be neutralized. The best riders have to go full gas no matter what.

I love TTs. Perugia was incredibly entertaining for me. I would trade it with a mountain stage only if the organizers could guarantee me the riders will go full gas from far out. But they can't, so I'll gladly take the TT.
I love TTs too. However, most working folks can only watch on the weekend. So they should plan to offer a spectacle.
 
On paper maybe. But then one of the two mountain stages would likely be neutralized by the peloton and the TV audience would just endlessly complain. TTs can't be neutralized. The best riders have to go full gas no matter what.

I love TTs. Perugia was incredibly entertaining for me. I would trade it with a mountain stage only if the organizers could guarantee me the riders will go full gas from far out. But they can't, so I'll gladly take the TT.
My personal complaint would be the order of ITTs, in that the one that's 50% longer in duration is first.
 
Obviously this TT favours Ganna more, compared to the first one. However, it's not dead flat and has rolling sections. Pogacar lost 47 seconds on similar length in the first TT (first 2/3 of the route). However 3 factors indicate that his loss today should be smaller:
1) This TT is a bit more rolling than first 2/3 of the first one (basically dead flat).
2) Pogacar had a strong negative split strategy in the first half of that flat section while Ganna started the first TT super strong.
3) It's already the end of week 2. There haven't been many difficult stages since the last TT but it can matter a bit.

All things considered I think Pogacar will lose not more than 30 seconds to Ganna. I wouldn't even rule out him winning (but he's not the favourite). Obviously I'm expecting Pogacar to put 1 minute+ over most of GC guys (Thomas should fare better this time and may end up somewhat close to Pogacar).
 
Ganna, Sheffield and Arensman podium. Arensman matched Pog on the flat portion of the last TT and paced well enough to do well on the climb so he should be impressive. Also expecting a good ride from Thomas. Wouldn’t be surprised if Pog doesn’t overburden himself and lets the other guys duke it out.
I am thinking you can't read too much into the first TT? I think Pogacar was saving himself on the flat portion for the final climb which of course he demolished.
 
Tbh what's talked about basically nothing is how tame the battle has been behind Pogacar for 2 weeks now. They've basically only sprinted uphill a few times and done the ITT.
Well, Martinez and Thomas are both saving their matches for this TT where they hope to take second place, O‘Connor hasn‘t really had the courage to do anything after Oropa and Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far and just hasn‘t succeeded because he‘s been going kind of half-assed so far. Rubio has looked good up to now and should think about attacking at altitude on Sunday, because he‘ll be an hour down at that point. The others are fighting themselves using breakaways. I hope Bardet has found his mojo now because he‘s the one I‘d be looking at for a bigger move.
 
Well, Martinez and Thomas are both saving their matches for this TT where they hope to take second place, O‘Connor hasn‘t really had the courage to do anything after Oropa and Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far and just hasn‘t succeeded because he‘s been going kind of half-assed so far. Rubio has looked good up to now and should think about attacking at altitude on Sunday, because he‘ll be an hour down at that point. The others are fighting themselves using breakaways. I hope Bardet has found his mojo now because he‘s the one I‘d be looking at for a bigger move.
I mean the parcours also hasn't been great for the 2ndary contenders to fight, with the MTFs being on the moderate side which makes sprinting for 2nd behind Pogacar just have much more sense.

Every Giro has this lul around stage 10-13 with the Po plains and other nothing stages and frankly it's a bit of a slog every time.
 
I suppose that Saturday and Sunday slots are probably sold to host towns at a higher price than Fridays. This "touristic area" has an interest in showing off their storefronts or courtyards full of turquoise water or whatever attracts the travelers.
Storefronts and courtyards full of turquoise water would attract a small, niche group of flood enthusiasts (delugologists? indunationophiles?) Scarcely the basis for economy-sustaining mass tourism.
 
I expect Ganna winning with 20-30 seconds margin, typical no-brainer prediction.

Pogacar, Thomas and Arensman in top 6 of the stage, Martinez in top 10 easily. All of mentioned GC contenders within 1:30, no massive gaps.

Badret to lose 2:30 to the best GC guys.

Really interesting how Tiberi will perform... 🤔
 
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