Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 14: Castigliano delle Stiviere – Desenzano del Garda, 31.2k (ITT)

[Red Rick]

Any chance the T1 check is simply further along than they say?

 

[Netserk]

Any chance the T1 check is simply further along than they say?

Headwind there also implies negative split.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Technically youre not wrong, but "has attacked and is leading virtual GC" is a rather generous way of saying "hes in the doomed breakway of the day of 3"

Don't underestimate the great Mansada.

 

[Red Rick]

Headwind there also implies negative split.

47 is very slow on a flat even with a headwind

 

[QueenStagiaire]

47 is very slow on a flat even with a headwind

Well, it isn‘t exactly flat, a few twists and turns and a lot of up and down, more like the 2021 Tour ITT I cited above actually.

 

[Red Rick]

There has not been exact testing in windtunnels or controlled environments as far as i know. But there is a lot of circumstantial evidence and examples of "peculiar" outcomes. Then you also have common sense, knowing that slight changes in bikeframe, skinsuits (texture), helmets or postitioning in windtunnel testing, can give huge gains in a long TT. There has been extensive testing which indicates riding even 10m behind a motorbike gives immense advantages (i posted those on the forum a few years ago). It would be ridiculous to assume the advantage of being able to ride in someone's slipstream for a while would not result in a substantial gain.

The exact conditions would play a huge part obviously. Overtaking your minute man on a narrow, bendy or even straight-up technical parcours could very well hurt your end result, you might have to slow down to overtake the team car or the rider in a specific turn, while having had little aero draft in return. Also the rider himself would play a big role. If the guy is soft pedalling the TT at 10kmh slower, the amount of time you are drafting would be small. But if the guy is going all out and is for instance only 2s slower per km, then you get a large timeframe for potential draft. Then imagine you get to overtake him on a long straight road and the wind is in your face. You'd literally get slingshot past a rider after having benefitted for maybe multiple kilometers. In such a case i am certain we are not just talking about a 1 or 2 second gain but easily into 10+ seconds per rider you overtake. If one rider gets to overtake 3 riders, and the other 0, and the difference at the finish is 15 seconds, i 'd bet the outcome would have been different in equal conditions, let alone if the conditions were swapped.

If youre catching many guys the speed differential is also bigger which means youre not inside a serious draft for that long

 

[search]

Huh? Obviously nobody...

not "easy" of course, but Bora for example always prefers to save a bit of energy in time trials before mountain stages. O'Connor on the other hand said that this makes no sense to him, and he will go full out today. So I'm pretty sure teams will approach it a bit differently.

 

[tobydawq]

That's the slowest part (slower than I initially expected though). Cerny's final time will be a good indication.

34:30 and still 2.3 kilometers to go for Cerny. I think your guess is way off.

 

[Red Rick]

34:30 and still 2.3 kilometers to go for Cerny. I think your guess is way off.

Italian asphalt just isnt it I guess

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, looks like it. I guess all the bends and corners take more speed out of them than I thought.

Make it between 35'00" and 35'30" then.

 

[Taxus4a]

Headwind at the start and tail wind at the end, but last part is not really going to help. Soft wind ñbut riders at the first hour will have less wind, so better conditions for them. I think the winner will be at 52, no more with that headwind at the start and little bit hilly...but it is a fast ITT anyway.

 

[Jack_89]

I'd be surprised to see Pogacar within 30s of Ganna

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If youre catching many guys the speed differential is also bigger which means youre not inside a serious draft for that long

Likely, but not necessarily. You could gain a lot of time on a rider on the technical parts, or on the climbs and still be able to get a good draft on the flat straight when you overtake him. You could also be unlucky and overtake him in the technical section or on a climb and have little advantage if any. Like i said, it depends on circumstances. Imagine a TT frontloaded with climbs and ending in a 20km flat section. Roglic gets Ganna in his sights on the top of the climby section, and gets draft all the way to the line 5m behind Ganna, without ever overtaking him.

 

[Netserk]

The flat part in the first ITT:

 

[Red Rick]

Ganna started time for 25 mites of ads

 

[Tim Cahill]

Ganna victim 1 at 6 minutes, Edward Planckaert

 

[Extinction]

Which specific international TV audience are you speaking about?

Everyone that has a normal work week and has leisure time to watch TV in the afternoon on the weekend.

 

[Netserk]

21" ahead of Affini at T1.

 

[Red Rick]

Cerny started too fast so I dont think Ganna is bad here on the section that suits him the least

 

[JosefK]

Ganna not ganna do it, today?

 

[Tim Cahill]

Yes I would expect Pogacar to ride a slightly faster T1 than Ganna, last split is the most important I think

 

[Salvarani]

Pretty close at the finish amongst the guys who actually rode for the stage, so far.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Milesi must be top class if he's only a couple of seconds off Affini using whatever parts Movistar found in Unzue's garden shed

 

[Netserk]

We see too little of Ganna.

 

[search]

We see too little of Ganna.

those tv bikes know when to better switch off the camera