Post COVID the face of cycling has changed with super-aggressive racing in all types of racing including Grand Tours - The question to be asked is. Why have the last two editions of the Giro gone against the pattern.
Simple. Because both the Giro 22 and 23 were designed that way. An attempt to keep interest till the end, to have the race decided on the last climb, to keep it open as long as possible. Worked last year, suspense till the end. At the expence of spectacle. Blockhaus early, then really little until Fedaia. Torino was a positive surprise, but the other mountain stages were kind of designed in a way that made sure that it would be hard to make big differences.
This year the same, more TT early, more hard mountains, but by putting the Tre Cime-Lussari combination at the very end you sort of castrate everything before. Laceno did what it was supposed to do, Gran Sasso failed a bit, the wind, but that was going to be small differences anyway. Then Crans Montana, great stage, that could be a big GC battle. But in 90% of cases not with this placement. Crans Montana itself is too easy, Croix de Coeur is where the action would really have to start. But with all that's coming? Most likely outcome is waiting.
Bondone again, it's a nice stage, but the long final climb risks reducing it to a race just there, just the final climb, especially since the penultimate climb isn't all that hard. Now with nobody clearly in command, no contender that really desperately needs to gain time, normally it's just action on the Bondone. But even with Remco 2' ahead that seemed rather likely.
Stage 18 is nice in itself, 3 (or let's say 2,5) not too long but tough enough climbs in the last 30 km. Here things can happen. Oh wait, what's the next day? Right, Tre Cime, Which guarantees less action than there would be if there was an easier stage the next day. Or not clearly the most difficult one of the whole Giro.
Of course I still hope that we see a bit less suspense, more spectacle on Tuesday and Thursday, and expect that there will be differences, but most likely nobody will win the Giro there, just some riders fall out of contention. And then the win comes on Friday+Saturday.
The Giro is designed this way, planned this way, they invite waiting, they want suspense, not spectacle but a decided race on the second weekend. And while the riders make the race, the riders are not stupid either, they know that the differences are all made in the third week. Even with Remco there with 2' advantage we wouldn't have seen that much more action so far, Crans with a full stage, Remco's team as bad as they were until then, Tao still in, then hopefully yes. But basically the riders for the moment are riding exactly the way the route is telling them to ride. Wait for Tuesday, Thursday but mostly Friday. Saturday then is a bit of a mystery anyway...
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