Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I'm not so sure about his chances at Ronde, it's a tough race, for the specialists. He was good in 2014 at Dwars Door Vlaanderen, but not so good in E3 which is much harder race. Top 10 would be a success in my opinion, top 5 huge...

Top 5 would be an incredible achievement. I agree with you and don't really rate his chances of winning highly; the only possible scenario is if he somehow broke away with a group of 3/4 riders like Thomas, Terpstra and Vandenbergh who he could beat in a sprint.

In a really hard race (which Movistar aren't able to make anyway), he may be able to drop Kristoff and Degenkolb, but it's very difficult to see him getting rid of and holding off all of Cancellara, GVA, Stybar, Sagan etc. until the finish. It's not LBL - the guys contending for the win here can all unleash a really fast sprint after a hard race.

I really don't get this thinking. It's the OPPOSITE. Specialist will come to the fore if the race will be harder. So if the race is going to be really hard, Bala will be drop by specialists like Kristoff (Degenkolb not so sure). On a course like Richmond, he could follow guys like Stybar and Kristoff because the climbs were hardly 500 meters and on really good cobbles (or no cobbles). In Richmond pure explosive powers were more important then true power and kilo's. In Flanders, you've got Oude Kwaremont: 2 km's on bad cobbles. Really suited for true machines like Cancellara, Thomas, Stybar and Kristoff.

Just look at Kristoff on Paterberg this year. He was the guy who put Terpstra under pressure, not the other way around. Bala just doesn't have enough kilo's and true power to be a real contender in a race like Flanders.

Can you remember the finish in Strade? A lot of people thought he would win it, because it was a finish perfectly suited to him. But both Stybar and GvA dropped him because they have got more power. The same will happen on Paterberg, and surely on Oude Kwaremont.

My prediction: he will be dropped on Oude Kwaremont. He will be decent on Paterberg, but will finish somewhere between 10th-20th place. And that's because he doesn't have the experience in a race like Flanders, doesn't have enough power to follow the best on Kwaremont, doesn't have a really strong team and will have difficulty to place himself between the first 10 riders a the foot of EVERY climb.

This year was an easy race though. The first 200km were pretty much soft pedalled, which is why Greipel was leading the peloton 30km from the finish. If it had been ridden hard from the start of the bergs Kristoff would have been nowhere near winning. That's when strong riders like Terpstra, Thomas and Vanmarcke come to the front - the sprinters would have no chance. Whether Valverde is strong enough to stay with those kind of riders is another question; but he certainly has more of a chance than if he enters a sprint finish with one of Kristoff Degenkolb and Sagan.

I agree that the Kwaremont will be the biggest problem for him; he really needs to be out at the front with just a handful of other riders by that point. If everyone is on their limit then he has a chance, if everyone is relatively fresh (like Kristoff was this year), then Valverde will get blown away before the Paterberg. The key for him is a hard race.

 

[Flamin]

What? Kristoff benefited from an easy race? that's like saying Purito prefers long climbs over short steep ones.

Valverde obviously needs to go from far indeed. And I'm sure he will try it, since it's a race he doesn't have much to lose in, so we'll see the agressive Valverde.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I'm not so sure about his chances at Ronde, it's a tough race, for the specialists. He was good in 2014 at Dwars Door Vlaanderen, but not so good in E3 which is much harder race. Top 10 would be a success in my opinion, top 5 huge...

Top 5 would be an incredible achievement. I agree with you and don't really rate his chances of winning highly; the only possible scenario is if he somehow broke away with a group of 3/4 riders like Thomas, Terpstra and Vandenbergh who he could beat in a sprint.

In a really hard race (which Movistar aren't able to make anyway), he may be able to drop Kristoff and Degenkolb, but it's very difficult to see him getting rid of and holding off all of Cancellara, GVA, Stybar, Sagan etc. until the finish. It's not LBL - the guys contending for the win here can all unleash a really fast sprint after a hard race.

I really don't get this thinking. It's the OPPOSITE. Specialist will come to the fore if the race will be harder. So if the race is going to be really hard, Bala will be drop by specialists like Kristoff (Degenkolb not so sure). On a course like Richmond, he could follow guys like Stybar and Kristoff because the climbs were hardly 500 meters and on really good cobbles (or no cobbles). In Richmond pure explosive powers were more important then true power and kilo's. In Flanders, you've got Oude Kwaremont: 2 km's on bad cobbles. Really suited for true machines like Cancellara, Thomas, Stybar and Kristoff.

Just look at Kristoff on Paterberg this year. He was the guy who put Terpstra under pressure, not the other way around. Bala just doesn't have enough kilo's and true power to be a real contender in a race like Flanders.

Can you remember the finish in Strade? A lot of people thought he would win it, because it was a finish perfectly suited to him. But both Stybar and GvA dropped him because they have got more power. The same will happen on Paterberg, and surely on Oude Kwaremont.

My prediction: he will be dropped on Oude Kwaremont. He will be decent on Paterberg, but will finish somewhere between 10th-20th place. And that's because he doesn't have the experience in a race like Flanders, doesn't have enough power to follow the best on Kwaremont, doesn't have a really strong team and will have difficulty to place himself between the first 10 riders a the foot of EVERY climb.

This year was an easy race though. The first 200km were pretty much soft pedalled, which is why Greipel was leading the peloton 30km from the finish. If it had been ridden hard from the start of the bergs Kristoff would have been nowhere near winning. That's when strong riders like Terpstra, Thomas and Vanmarcke come to the front - the sprinters would have no chance. Whether Valverde is strong enough to stay with those kind of riders is another question; but he certainly has more of a chance than if he enters a sprint finish with one of Kristoff Degenkolb and Sagan.

I agree that the Kwaremont will be the biggest problem for him; he really needs to be out at the front with just a handful of other riders by that point. If everyone is on their limit then he has a chance, if everyone is relatively fresh (like Kristoff was this year), then Valverde will get blown away before the Paterberg. The key for him is a hard race.

And that's where i strongly disagree with you. Valverde needs a easy race, where the specialist don't get much chances to make the race hard/drop him. If the race will be hard, he will be drop early.

And saying Kristoff is just a sprinter, is not true and showing no respect to Kristoff. The guy has got a lot of power and potential on short steep cobble climbs. He's a true specialist for a race like Flanders too. And it was Kristoff who made the race hard last year. It was not like he was only following Terpstra in the last 20 km. He was the strongest guy in the race. And in general the race was not that easy. 2012 edition was.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

What? Kristoff benefited from an easy race? that's like saying Purito prefers long climbs over short steep ones.

Valverde obviously needs to go from far indeed. And I'm sure he will try it, since it's a race he doesn't have much to lose in, so we'll see the agressive Valverde.

Not really. Kristoff in the form he was in last year could probably have won it whichever way he wanted. The fact that it was more or less soft pedalled for the first 200km just made it really easy for him, because he had easily enough power on the final few climbs.

A harder race and he'd be closer to his limit on the final climbs and may have been dropped by the big engined cobbled riders. Like he was in 2013 and 2014. Both harder races and he fell just short.

 

[Flamin]

Then how do you explain his super fast Paterberg ascent in 2014? He was dropped on Kwaremont because that hill doesn't suit him very well, not because he suffered from the race being very hard.

The harder the better for Kristoff. There's a reason he sprints so well after 260-300km.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Then how do you explain his super fast Paterberg ascent in 2014? He was dropped on Kwaremont because that hill doesn't suit him very well, not because he suffered from the race being very hard.

The harder the better for Kristoff. There's a reason he sprints so well after 260-300km.

He did well on the Paterberg because he had kept his anaerobic powder relatively dry thanks to the easy pace of much of the race. Kristoff is great in a sprint after a long race - but that is neuromuscular power not a 1-2 min anaerobic effort like the bergs.

And you are basically agreeing with my point about Kristoff being dropped on the Kwaremont. He was able to win last year because they soft pedalled the Kwaremont the first few times, and then he only had to match Terpstra on the final time - it was an easier race. Of course if he is in the front and relatively fresh in the last 20km no-one is going to beat him. In a hard race where the Kwaremont is raced more intensely each time, Kristoff has been dropped on it. A hard race = Kristoff not there at the finish.

 

[KyoGrey]

With the decline of Boonen and Cancellara, there are no longer monster especialists in the hilly cobbles.

With a bunch filled with 4-star flandriens and clsssic-spints combo men, it is reasonable to think that the race will develop with the same "slow" speed as last year. If Valverde is near top form, he has a slight chance to podium or who knows what more.

I even think that he will do better in De Ronde than in other cobbles races, due to its length.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

He did well on the Paterberg because he had kept his anaerobic powder relatively dry thanks to the easy pace of much of the race. Kristoff is great in a sprint after a long race - but that is neuromuscular power not a 1-2 min anaerobic effort like the bergs.

You just said the opposite. That 2014 was a hard race.

And you are basically agreeing with my point about Kristoff being dropped on the Kwaremont. He was able to win last year because they soft pedalled the Kwaremont the first few times, and then he only had to match Terpstra on the final time - it was an easier race. Of course if he is in the front and relatively fresh in the last 20km no-one is going to beat him. In a hard race where the Kwaremont is raced more intensely each time, Kristoff has been dropped on it. A hard race = Kristoff not there at the finish.

No, I don't agree that a hard race is not good for Kristoff. Again, if that was the case, he wouldn't have been so good on Paterberg in 2014. It's just that Cancellara was there in 2013 and 2014 to drop him on Kwaremont.

 

[Mr.White]

With the decline of Boonen and Cancellara, there are no longer monster especialists in the hilly cobbles.

With a bunch filled with 4-star flandriens and clsssic-spints combo men, it is reasonable to think that the race will develop with the same "slow" speed as last year. If Valverde is near top form, he has a slight chance to podium or who knows what more.

I even think that he will do better in De Ronde than in other cobbles races, due to its length.

Exactly! I'm expecting Sagan to reach another level in next few years

 

[KyoGrey]

With the decline of Boonen and Cancellara, there are no longer monster especialists in the hilly cobbles.

With a bunch filled with 4-star flandriens and clsssic-spints combo men, it is reasonable to think that the race will develop with the same "slow" speed as last year. If Valverde is near top form, he has a slight chance to podium or who knows what more.

I even think that he will do better in De Ronde than in other cobbles races, due to its length.

Exactly! I'm expecting Sagan to reach another level in next few years

As obviously good Sagan is as a rider, it looks he will never be the stompers Cancellara or Boonen were in the cobbles.

The other candidato was Vanmarcke, but in 2015 he took a step backwards instead of progressing.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

What? Kristoff benefited from an easy race? that's like saying Purito prefers long climbs over short steep ones.

I thought that he preferred the bergs above anything. Right, Arredondo?

Which brings me to an important point. Who would have won if you had located Koppenberg as a hill top finish in the end of a stage without the rest of the cobbled climbs?

I think Valverde would have had a great chance then.

 

[Brullnux]

Yeah but it's not like that is it. No stage will ever finish in the Koppenberg so little point fantasising now. But ofc, an uphill finish will suit Valverde. But Flanders doesn't have one.

 

[Velolover2]

I like Valverde but he is never going to win or make it to the podium in the Tour of Flanders. People who say he needs a tough race to be in contention don't know how the cobbled classics work. He is way too light. His opponents are thirty pounds heavier on average. Raw power and muscle mass in important in these races. Of course there is a big difference between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, but not enough to be decisive in terms which riders who are good at these races.

He was good in Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Worlds in Richmond because they are less difficult. Top 10 would be a fine result.

 

[Aguirre]

He has to anticipate the course ora to be aggressive in order to hace a real chance.
Being in front before The kwaremont... Then he can have a chance, not in a tete a tete with sagan an co

 

[Mr.White]

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

Kristoff (winning races durning the whole season + RVV) or Degenkolb (2 Monuments +1 GT stage) winning the Velo d'Or insted of Valverde would have been ok, but I don't agree with Froome winning it, him winning in 2013 was fine, but this year other riders deserve it more.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

It's about the 2015 season. The 2nd part of Valverde's season was just not good enough i think to win it. if he had won Clasica or Lombardia, he would have surely got it.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

It's about the 2015 season. The 2nd part of Valverde's season was just not good enough i think to win it. if he had won Clasica or Lombardia, he would have surely got it.

So you think Froome deserved it? Cause I don't. Kristoff was better too...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

It's about the 2015 season. The 2nd part of Valverde's season was just not good enough i think to win it. if he had won Clasica or Lombardia, he would have surely got it.

What a load of rubbish. In the second half of his season he won the points jersey and a stage in the Vuelta, finished on the podium in the TdF, won the National Road Race title and finished top 5 in San Sebastian, Lombardia and the Worlds. Sure, it was the slightly weaker half of his season - but it was still more than most top professionals achieve in their entire careers.

Froome did what? Won the Tour de France and a warm up race for the Tour. Of course that's the biggest race, but if you're going to give the award to the rider that wins the Tour - regardless of what else he did or didn't achieve - then it's essentially a waste of time.

 

[LaFlorecita]

IMO Bala should have gotten the Velo d'Or, or Kristoff, but as usual the Tour is overrated by the journo's.
Froome won Andalucia ( a meaningless race), Dauphiné and TDF all by a relatively small margin.

 

[ice&fire]

UCI should give the WT winner a distinctive jersey to wear all season as they do with the WC. Nobody would care about silly awards given by a special class of armchair cyclists who happen to make their living telling the rest of us what goes on in bike races.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I remember I really got into cycling in 2006 (like, watching more than the Tour every year) and the thing that stands out from that year was obviously Bala going head to head against the Kazahks in the PT jersey (and the yellow, obviously). I actually really liked that. I would like to see them awarding such a jersey again.

 

[Taxus4a]

Froome of course deserve velo d Or, althoug the best season is for Valverde.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Apparently Froome gets Velo d'Or. I don't agree on that. I think that man who's name is in the title of this thread deserved it much more. Even if their seasons were some kind of equal, which they aren't in my opinion, the award should go to Don Alejandro as a recognition of his incredible career and consistency throughout the years!

It's about the 2015 season. The 2nd part of Valverde's season was just not good enough i think to win it. if he had won Clasica or Lombardia, he would have surely got it.

What a load of rubbish. In the second half of his season he won the points jersey and a stage in the Vuelta, finished on the podium in the TdF, won the National Road Race title and finished top 5 in San Sebastian, Lombardia and the Worlds. Sure, it was the slightly weaker half of his season - but it was still more than most top professionals achieve in their entire careers.

Froome did what? Won the Tour de France and a warm up race for the Tour. Of course that's the biggest race, but if you're going to give the award to the rider that wins the Tour - regardless of what else he did or didn't achieve - then it's essentially a waste of time.

I think Kristoff should have won it. With Bala a close 2nd.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Froome of course deserve velo d Or, althoug the best season is for Valverde.

I thought Velo d'Or is given to whomever had the best season?