Re: Re:
This year was an easy race though. The first 200km were pretty much soft pedalled, which is why Greipel was leading the peloton 30km from the finish. If it had been ridden hard from the start of the bergs Kristoff would have been nowhere near winning. That's when strong riders like Terpstra, Thomas and Vanmarcke come to the front - the sprinters would have no chance. Whether Valverde is strong enough to stay with those kind of riders is another question; but he certainly has more of a chance than if he enters a sprint finish with one of Kristoff Degenkolb and Sagan.
I agree that the Kwaremont will be the biggest problem for him; he really needs to be out at the front with just a handful of other riders by that point. If everyone is on their limit then he has a chance, if everyone is relatively fresh (like Kristoff was this year), then Valverde will get blown away before the Paterberg. The key for him is a hard race.
Arredondo said:DFA123 said:Mr.White said:I'm not so sure about his chances at Ronde, it's a tough race, for the specialists. He was good in 2014 at Dwars Door Vlaanderen, but not so good in E3 which is much harder race. Top 10 would be a success in my opinion, top 5 huge...
Top 5 would be an incredible achievement. I agree with you and don't really rate his chances of winning highly; the only possible scenario is if he somehow broke away with a group of 3/4 riders like Thomas, Terpstra and Vandenbergh who he could beat in a sprint.
In a really hard race (which Movistar aren't able to make anyway), he may be able to drop Kristoff and Degenkolb, but it's very difficult to see him getting rid of and holding off all of Cancellara, GVA, Stybar, Sagan etc. until the finish. It's not LBL - the guys contending for the win here can all unleash a really fast sprint after a hard race.
I really don't get this thinking. It's the OPPOSITE. Specialist will come to the fore if the race will be harder. So if the race is going to be really hard, Bala will be drop by specialists like Kristoff (Degenkolb not so sure). On a course like Richmond, he could follow guys like Stybar and Kristoff because the climbs were hardly 500 meters and on really good cobbles (or no cobbles). In Richmond pure explosive powers were more important then true power and kilo's. In Flanders, you've got Oude Kwaremont: 2 km's on bad cobbles. Really suited for true machines like Cancellara, Thomas, Stybar and Kristoff.
Just look at Kristoff on Paterberg this year. He was the guy who put Terpstra under pressure, not the other way around. Bala just doesn't have enough kilo's and true power to be a real contender in a race like Flanders.
Can you remember the finish in Strade? A lot of people thought he would win it, because it was a finish perfectly suited to him. But both Stybar and GvA dropped him because they have got more power. The same will happen on Paterberg, and surely on Oude Kwaremont.
My prediction: he will be dropped on Oude Kwaremont. He will be decent on Paterberg, but will finish somewhere between 10th-20th place. And that's because he doesn't have the experience in a race like Flanders, doesn't have enough power to follow the best on Kwaremont, doesn't have a really strong team and will have difficulty to place himself between the first 10 riders a the foot of EVERY climb.
This year was an easy race though. The first 200km were pretty much soft pedalled, which is why Greipel was leading the peloton 30km from the finish. If it had been ridden hard from the start of the bergs Kristoff would have been nowhere near winning. That's when strong riders like Terpstra, Thomas and Vanmarcke come to the front - the sprinters would have no chance. Whether Valverde is strong enough to stay with those kind of riders is another question; but he certainly has more of a chance than if he enters a sprint finish with one of Kristoff Degenkolb and Sagan.
I agree that the Kwaremont will be the biggest problem for him; he really needs to be out at the front with just a handful of other riders by that point. If everyone is on their limit then he has a chance, if everyone is relatively fresh (like Kristoff was this year), then Valverde will get blown away before the Paterberg. The key for him is a hard race.