Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think it's pretty simple. Any group over the Cherave must have Landa in it. Landa then does nothing in that group.

Wouldn't shock me if that will be part of Landa's role. Today he looked more than happy to work for Valverde, which he said he would do in the Ardennes.

Yeah, and that's a perfectly reasonable arrangement. Landa is coming off Pais Vasco anyway, so he has good form.

Sabotaging the breakaway is way easier than pulling it back in Fleche.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

I think you're way overstating it. 2 or 3 riders could be very dangerous. Jungels wasn't that far from staying away last year. If he had another one or maybe two strong riders - the likes of Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Izagirre or Kreuziger - they would be very difficult to catch for 7 man teams, who are filled mostly with climbers.

Everyone will lean on Movistar until the last possible moment, and there's a decent chance they will misjudge it and only start to help when it's too late.

I think teams that want a sprint that don't get into a break will help. I also think one of Landa's jobs will be to get into those breaks and sit on.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

I think you're way overstating it. 2 or 3 riders could be very dangerous. Jungels wasn't that far from staying away last year. If he had another one or maybe two strong riders - the likes of Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Izagirre or Kreuziger - they would be very difficult to catch for 7 man teams, who are filled mostly with climbers.

Everyone will lean on Movistar until the last possible moment, and there's a decent chance they will misjudge it and only start to help when it's too late.

I think teams that want a sprint that don't get into a break will help. I also think one of Landa's jobs will be to get into those breaks and sit on.

If Landa gets into the break then who is going to be left to pull for Valverde at the end of the race? Just Betancur and maybe Anacona? I don't think Movistar can afford to do that. Everyone will know Landa in the break is a bluff and will still lean on Movistar to work in the main group.

It would be crazy tactics to send their strongest domestique into a break, leaving Valverde, the odds on favourite, sat in the bunch and relying completely on other teams to give him a shot at winning the race.

Movistar need to do exactly the same tactics as in previous years. They just have to hope that having one fewer rider won't harm them, and also hope that they still have some allies around towards the finale.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

I think you're way overstating it. 2 or 3 riders could be very dangerous. Jungels wasn't that far from staying away last year. If he had another one or maybe two strong riders - the likes of Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Izagirre or Kreuziger - they would be very difficult to catch for 7 man teams, who are filled mostly with climbers.

Everyone will lean on Movistar until the last possible moment, and there's a decent chance they will misjudge it and only start to help when it's too late.

I think teams that want a sprint that don't get into a break will help. I also think one of Landa's jobs will be to get into those breaks and sit on.

If Landa gets into the break then who is going to be left to pull for Valverde at the end of the race? Just Betancur and maybe Anacona? I don't think Movistar can afford to do that. Everyone will know Landa in the break is a bluff and will still lean on Movistar to work in the main group.

It would be crazy tactics to send their strongest domestique into a break, leaving Valverde, the odds on favourite, sat in the bunch and relying completely on other teams to give him a shot at winning the race.

Movistar need to do exactly the same tactics as in previous years. They just have to hope that having one fewer rider won't harm them, and also hope that they still have some allies around towards the finale.

Why would Landa in the break be a bluff? He can win on Mur de Huy from the break, especially cause he won't do any work before the Mur. But I kind of agree with you that Landa won't go in any break far from the finish, that would be a job for Betancur or Amador. Anyway theoretically other teams would need to join forces against Movistar (Valverde), but because this race lacks places where it's easy to create chaos, I think it's not going to work that easy. They (teams) will try, but I think Movistar will control situation, and be very careful who to let into late breaks, which will in the end led to inevitable Mur de Huy sprint.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

For a break to succeed it would need at least 5-6 strong riders all willing to work AND have riders from all the teams (minus Movistar) who have a shot at a sprint on the Mur, otherwise any team left out is going to work with Movistar to bring them back.

I think you're way overstating it. 2 or 3 riders could be very dangerous. Jungels wasn't that far from staying away last year. If he had another one or maybe two strong riders - the likes of Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Izagirre or Kreuziger - they would be very difficult to catch for 7 man teams, who are filled mostly with climbers.

Everyone will lean on Movistar until the last possible moment, and there's a decent chance they will misjudge it and only start to help when it's too late.

I think teams that want a sprint that don't get into a break will help. I also think one of Landa's jobs will be to get into those breaks and sit on.

If Landa gets into the break then who is going to be left to pull for Valverde at the end of the race? Just Betancur and maybe Anacona? I don't think Movistar can afford to do that. Everyone will know Landa in the break is a bluff and will still lean on Movistar to work in the main group.

It would be crazy tactics to send their strongest domestique into a break, leaving Valverde, the odds on favourite, sat in the bunch and relying completely on other teams to give him a shot at winning the race.

Movistar need to do exactly the same tactics as in previous years. They just have to hope that having one fewer rider won't harm them, and also hope that they still have some allies around towards the finale.

Why would Landa in the break be a bluff? He can win on Mur de Huy from the break, especially cause he won't do any work before the Mur. But I kind of agree with you that Landa won't go in any break far from the finish, that would be a job for Betancur or Amador. Anyway theoretically other teams would need to join forces against Movistar (Valverde), but because this race lacks places where it's easy to create chaos, I think it's not going to work that easy. They (teams) will try, but I think Movistar will control situation, and be very careful who to let into late breaks, which will in the end led to inevitable Mur de Huy sprint.

I think it was Betancur who was tasked with that job last year. So maybe for that reason he'll be the one again this year doing that. Provided he's in shape.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

I can't remember that I have ever been this confident that Valverde will win Fléche and I have been pretty confident in the past... and then he probably won't win. Nah, he is scary right now, his attack on the very shallow Bemelerberg was actually close to split the group.

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

No, they don't.

Sure they will. Martin, Teuns, Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski/Henao will all fancy their chances in a sprint.

No, they (not all) will not.

 

[Velolover2]

They will all (be stupid enough to) fancy their chances in a sprint. But it's likely to be the same result as in the last 5 editions.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I agree that Valverde is close to a certainty for Fleche if Movistar keep it altogether. But surely, everyone knows that by now and will be racing against that scenario. I mean, even last year there were very slight doubts about his form after missing the move in Amstel, perhaps he could have been a little over-raced - there's no doubt at all right now that he's in superb shape.

I think it could be very tough for Movistar to control the whole race with just six guys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the winning move was made on that climb before Huy this year - a few riders get clear, and Movistar have one or maybe two guys to close the gap, and they can't do it.

I definitely would. Movistar, UAE, BMC, QuickStep and Sky will all want a sprint.

No, they don't.

Sure they will. Martin, Teuns, Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski/Henao will all fancy their chances in a sprint.

No, they (not all) will not.

Oh yeah? So how will they approach the race then? Do you really think any of them will do anything other than wait for the final ascent of the Mur?

 

[Koronin]

Re:

They will all (be stupid enough to) fancy their chances in a sprint. But it's likely to be the same result as in the last 5 editions.

Last 5? Valverde's only won 4 in a row, if he wins this one it will be 5 in a row and 6 overall. His first win at Fleche Wallone was in 2006.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

They will all (be stupid enough to) fancy their chances in a sprint. But it's likely to be the same result as in the last 5 editions.

Last 5? Valverde's only won 4 in a row, if he wins this one it will be 5 in a row and 6 overall. His first win at Fleche Wallone was in 2006.

Ah, I see. Still, I'm pretty confident that no one is as strong as Bala. They have to rethink the Mur.. use the entire climb. But only Sergio Henao and Dan Martin are a good enough climbers to do that and even then.. Valverde is still gonna win.

Valverde destroyed Ala and Wellens today in a flat sprint even after having done most of the work with Sagan. I think he was the strongest today. I'm sure he is ready for another Mur victory.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

They will all (be stupid enough to) fancy their chances in a sprint. But it's likely to be the same result as in the last 5 editions.

Last 5? Valverde's only won 4 in a row, if he wins this one it will be 5 in a row and 6 overall. His first win at Fleche Wallone was in 2006.

Ah, I see. Still, I'm pretty confident that no one is as strong as Bala. They have to rethink the Mur.. use the entire climb. But only Sergio Henao and Dan Martin are a good enough climbers to do that and even then.. Valverde is still gonna win.

Valverde destroyed Ala and Wellens today in a flat sprint even after having done most of the work with Sagan. I think he was the strongest today. I'm sure he is ready for another Mur victory.

I agree that Bala is the strongest once we get to Fleche Wallone and LBL. Actually I've been wanting to see that flat sprint for awhile between Valverde and Alaphilippe. We got that answer today. Dan Martin DNFed today, I have no clue what kind of form he actually has. Sky will probably be working for Kwait. Martin's not as good of a climber as Valverde is, nor are the Yate's twins. Henao on the other hand is the one who could give it a try, but I don't think he'd survive it. He's got a better shot at LBL. Wellens will try a solo attack at some point.
I think everyone, including the peloton will be surprised if Bala doesn't get 5 in a row on Wednesday.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

The climb that they introduced before the Mur kills the legs, since then we haven't really seen big attacks earlier on the Mur.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Yeah, it's just too long to try to go early. Valverde has ridden it as a pretty even paced effort the last two years. To beat him, by going early, you'd have to outclimb him while going massively into the red in the first minute and then trying to hold on. Which just isn't going to work.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Yeah, it's just too long to try to go early. Valverde has ridden it as a pretty even paced effort the last two years. To beat him, by going early, you'd have to outclimb him while going massively into the red in the first minute and then trying to hold on. Which just isn't going to work.

One other point is not many pure climbers are in this race. Those are the guys who can out climb Valverde. None of the punchuers have proven they can out climb him (or out sprint him for that matter). This race really is for the punchuers.

 

[Velolover2]

Oh, I forgot about the Yates twins. I think if Adam is there, he is by far Valverde's most dangerous rival. Not Alaphilippe, not Dan Martin but Adam Yates (Simon is explosive too but not as much as Adam). He is the only rider (other than Valverde himself) who is strong enough to attack further out (like 600-700 m) and make it.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Oh, I forgot about the Yates twins. I think if Adam is there, he is by far Valverde's most dangerous rival. Not Alaphilippe, not Dan Martin but Adam Yates (Simon is explosive too but not as much as Adam). He is the only rider (other than Valverde himself) who is strong enough to attack further out (like 600-700 m) and make it.

Remember Valverde's already beaten Adam in a climbing sprint finish at Valencia earlier this year. Stage 4 and Valverde let Adam go and then when he was ready to start accelerating, he easily caught and passed him to win the stage. So I'm not sure he's any more of a threat than Alaphilippe just that he'll go from a bit farther out.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Yeah, it's just too long to try to go early. Valverde has ridden it as a pretty even paced effort the last two years. To beat him, by going early, you'd have to outclimb him while going massively into the red in the first minute and then trying to hold on. Which just isn't going to work.

One other point is not many pure climbers are in this race. Those are the guys who can out climb Valverde. None of the punchuers have proven they can out climb him (or out sprint him for that matter). This race really is for the punchuers.

Pure climbers wouldn't stand a chance out-climbing him on a 3 minute effort anyway. If they could, then they would be in the race. 3 minute effort is kind of aerobic, but also using a lot of anaerobic power; so the one dimensional beasts with insane aerobic, but poor anaerobic power - like Froome and Quintana - wouldn't come close.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Oh, I forgot about the Yates twins. I think if Adam is there, he is by far Valverde's most dangerous rival. Not Alaphilippe, not Dan Martin but Adam Yates (Simon is explosive too but not as much as Adam). He is the only rider (other than Valverde himself) who is strong enough to attack further out (like 600-700 m) and make it.

For me Dylan Teuns is the real dark horse that could put up a decent fight, already 4th last year and this year he was impressive in Paris-Nice and Itzulia.

 

[yaco]

Re:

Oh, I forgot about the Yates twins. I think if Adam is there, he is by far Valverde's most dangerous rival. Not Alaphilippe, not Dan Martin but Adam Yates (Simon is explosive too but not as much as Adam). He is the only rider (other than Valverde himself) who is strong enough to attack further out (like 600-700 m) and make it.

Adam is better at handling short, sharp climbs but unfortunately he has a broken pelvis.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Every year some minor rider tries it.

The likes of Evans, Schleck, Rebellin all rode it a lot more agressively and a lot faster than Valverde's competitors do now.

 

[Blanco]

He has a chance to enter the history books once more. If he wins today he will become the only rider in history who won prominent one day race five times in a row!

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Every year some minor rider tries it.

The likes of Evans, Schleck, Rebellin all rode it a lot more agressively and a lot faster than Valverde's competitors do now.

Not sure if it's true, I think Dan Martin has 3rd fastest time on the Mur...

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Yeah I want to see a 100m by 100m breakdown of climbing times on the Mur de Huy. Should be a lot of time to be gained by attacking it earlier.

Except every year someone tries it and then gets caught and passed by the bunch. Valverde this week made a comment that you have know exactly how to measure your effort up the Mur de Huy and you can't go too soon because you expend energy you need later. Of course he also said if he has the lead with 200 to 250 meters left that it's very hard to beat him.

Every year some minor rider tries it.

The likes of Evans, Schleck, Rebellin all rode it a lot more agressively and a lot faster than Valverde's competitors do now.

Not sure if it's true, I think Dan Martin has 3rd fastest time on the Mur...

2014 was the only win of Valverde in Fleche that was actually a very fast time. The norm used to be in the 2'40s, 4 of Valverde wins are in the 2'50s for the last KM.