Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Inquitus]

This races seems to be down to Yates v Valverde, I think Valverde will take the Red Jersey by a small margin in the TT, and then stages 17,19 and 20 will decide which of the 2 wins the race!

 

[movingtarget]

This is about the level I expected from Valverde especially against riders like Quintana not at their best and younger riders that haven't managed to win a grand tour yet. Experience has to count for something plus motivation in what will possibly be his last good chance to win another grand tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Needs the ITT of his life, and can't be allow himself to get dropped afterwards. It's a tough ask, but I regret not putting money on him yesterday at 11/1

 

[Koronin]

He's still right there. He does need to put in the ITT is he is capable of riding on Tuesday and he'll be in red with a great shot at winning this thing. He also could have over a minute on both Quintana and Lopez. No way they make that much time up in the last three mountain stages unless he just totally cracks. The only time I remember him doing that in any Spanish race was 2016 when it was his 3rd GT in a single year and 5th in a row. He's got experience, knows himself, and will always ride within himself. Vamos Bala!

 

[Rollthedice]

He should take red on Tuesday and if he doesn't have a bad day, which happens rarely but happens, I think only stage 20 can upset him. Obviously Movistar has to ride for him from Tuesday on.

 

[Velolover2]

To be fair, I think Yates and Valverde are pretty equal in a lumpy, long-ish TT. I don't think Yates will lose the jersey. Valverde might gain 10 or 15 secs on him max. But the reverse scenario is possible too.

Yates has improved much and will have Valverde's time to chase. I'd except them both to finish in top 10. Kruijswijk is likely to jump ahead of both Lopez AND Quintana for the third spot.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

To be fair, I think Yates and Valverde are pretty equal in a lumpy, long-ish TT. I don't think Yates will lose the jersey. Valverde might gain 10 or 15 secs on him max. But the reverse scenario is possible too.

Yates has improved much and will have Valverde's time to chase. I'd except them both to finish in top 10. Kruijswijk is likely to jump ahead of both Lopez AND Quintana for the third spot.

I think a lot with this ITT is going to depend on how much Valverde is willing to risk on the corners. He's said he gave up time (possibly up to 10 seconds) on the opening TT because he was being extremely cautious in the corners.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

To be fair, I think Yates and Valverde are pretty equal in a lumpy, long-ish TT. I don't think Yates will lose the jersey. Valverde might gain 10 or 15 secs on him max. But the reverse scenario is possible too.

Yates has improved much and will have Valverde's time to chase. I'd except them both to finish in top 10. Kruijswijk is likely to jump ahead of both Lopez AND Quintana for the third spot.

I think a lot with this ITT is going to depend on how much Valverde is willing to risk on the corners. He's said he gave up time (possibly up to 10 seconds) on the opening TT because he was being extremely cautious in the corners.

Yeah, let's see how it goes. Valverde has the size advantage (2.5 inches taller/5 pounds heavier). I'd favor Valverde on those 3-4% hills.

https://www.cyclingstage.com/vuelta-2018-route/stage-16-spain-route-2018/

 

[Blanco]

Re:

He should take red on Tuesday and if he doesn't have a bad day, which happens rarely but happens, I think only stage 20 can upset him. Obviously Movistar has to ride for him from Tuesday on.

And I think they will, after reading their statement from the site. They're full of praise for Valverde's ride, and Quintana is barely mentioned.
I think both Valverde and Unzue are pissed because Quintana didn't want to work in the last 1.5 km for Valverde, and especially on that downhill part, so he could out sprint Yates and take the bonus.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

To be fair, I think Yates and Valverde are pretty equal in a lumpy, long-ish TT. I don't think Yates will lose the jersey. Valverde might gain 10 or 15 secs on him max. But the reverse scenario is possible too.

Yates has improved much and will have Valverde's time to chase. I'd except them both to finish in top 10. Kruijswijk is likely to jump ahead of both Lopez AND Quintana for the third spot.

I think a lot with this ITT is going to depend on how much Valverde is willing to risk on the corners. He's said he gave up time (possibly up to 10 seconds) on the opening TT because he was being extremely cautious in the corners.

He'll risk this time, there's no doubt. Overall win is on the table.

 

[bambino]

Re:

To be fair, I think Yates and Valverde are pretty equal in a lumpy, long-ish TT. I don't think Yates will lose the jersey. Valverde might gain 10 or 15 secs on him max. But the reverse scenario is possible too.

Yates has improved much and will have Valverde's time to chase. I'd except them both to finish in top 10. Kruijswijk is likely to jump ahead of both Lopez AND Quintana for the third spot.

There aren't that much statistic in recent years to make very good analysis between them.

Yates lost 1m37s in Giro to Dennis in 34,5km. This was Stage 16 when the big TT engines has slight lesser edge due to fatigue to GC folks than in 1 day TT's such as WC or national champs.

Valverde recently lost 1m04s to Castroviejo in National champs in 37,4km.

Normally I would estimate Castro max 30s behind Dennis in such distance.

Given those figures and the Spain advantage of Valverde, I'm expecting between 30-45s win for Valverde.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

He should take red on Tuesday and if he doesn't have a bad day, which happens rarely but happens, I think only stage 20 can upset him. Obviously Movistar has to ride for him from Tuesday on.

And I think they will, after reading their statement from the site. They're full of praise for Valverde's ride, and Quintana is barely mentioned.
I think both Valverde and Unzue are pissed because Quintana didn't want to work in the last 1.5 km for Valverde, and especially on that downhill part, so he could out sprint Yates and take the bonus.

Yeah, Quintana waved a couple of times at Valverde during the ascent. Somehow he is expecting him to do everything and Valverde is obviously still outclassing Quintana in the end of the stages anyways. Its a very weird dynamic. One specific danish commentator is probably still 100% sure that its all about Quintana and that Valverde is still a domestique, its amazing that people can't see that Valverde at least should be co-captain. Its not as blatant as 2017 (even though Valverde rode half a stage, he would have been significantly stronger - EVERYTHING points at that direction, but Quintana was the designated leader, at least on the outside). Tour de France 2016 is also a good example where they were equally strong.

 

[Red Rick]

Think that if Valverde wants to win it, he's gonna have to have red after Monte Oiz. And if he has it on that climb, I think Yates will take off and won't look back this time.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

He should take red on Tuesday and if he doesn't have a bad day, which happens rarely but happens, I think only stage 20 can upset him. Obviously Movistar has to ride for him from Tuesday on.

And I think they will, after reading their statement from the site. They're full of praise for Valverde's ride, and Quintana is barely mentioned.
I think both Valverde and Unzue are pissed because Quintana didn't want to work in the last 1.5 km for Valverde, and especially on that downhill part, so he could out sprint Yates and take the bonus.

Yeah, Quintana waved a couple of times at Valverde during the ascent. Somehow he is expecting him to do everything and Valverde is obviously still outclassing Quintana in the end of the stages anyways. Its a very weird dynamic. One specific danish commentator is probably still 100% sure that its all about Quintana and that Valverde is still a domestique, its amazing that people can't see that Valverde at least should be co-captain. Its not as blatant as 2017 (even though Valverde rode half a stage, he would have been significantly stronger - EVERYTHING points at that direction, but Quintana was the designated leader, at least on the outside). Tour de France 2016 is also a good example where they were equally strong.

Just look at when Yates waved to Quintana, frustrated cause he's not chasing Lopez. Quintana automatically looked behind to Valverde, hit the front for no more than 5-10 sec, and then Valverde took over and led to the finish.
That's why he lost that bonus by the way.

 

[Valv.Piti]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

 

[Robert5091]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

Someone else not planning on winning?!

 

[Koronin]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

Yep he wants it. Yet again we get to decipher what he's saying.

 

[lartiste]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

Someone else not planning on winning?!

Overall win is lying on the street, who ever will come and take it will win, hopefully Bala will be the first! But eventhough it will be not simple for him, this would be great finale of his career.

 

[Rollthedice]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

Someone else not planning on winning?!

Overall win is lying on the street, who ever will come and take it will win, hopefully Bala will be the first! But eventhough it will be not simple for him, this would be great finale of his career.

Finale? Maybe, just maybe Tokyo Olympics.

 

[Koronin]

"The red jersey is not an aspiration ‘per se’, though I’m feeling strong and close to the top guys. Tuesday’s route shouldn’t be bad for me; hopefully I can have a good day. I still think it will be tough for anyone to make a real gap in the GC to win this one.”

Yep, the red jersey is a huge aspiration and if/when he gets it, he will do everything in his might to keep it. Vamos Alejandro!

Someone else not planning on winning?!

Overall win is lying on the street, who ever will come and take it will win, hopefully Bala will be the first! But eventhough it will be not simple for him, this would be great finale of his career.

Finale? Maybe, just maybe Tokyo Olympics.

He's said he wants one more Olympics and this year he said next spring he'll make a decision on another contract based on how he's feeling. He's also said he doesn't see why he should retire while he's still having so much fun racing and while he's still winning. So 2020 is possible for retirement but we'll have to see.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.

Great question. If Bala takes red, his best defense is to just sit in wheels. The only rider he will likely need to worry about will be Yates due to what the time gaps most likely will be.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Re: Re:

Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.

Great question. If Bala takes red, his best defense is to just sit in wheels. The only rider he will likely need to worry about will be Yates due to what the time gaps most likely will be.

Yup. I think Quintana performing well in the ITT is pivotal. He has to be close in order to force GC rivals to mark his attacks.

The only way this backfires is if Yates drops Valverde in pursuit of Quintana. In this case I suppose the plan would be for Quintana to wait and work with Valverde.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.

Or they could just try to bring down every attack and control things with Quintana and Carapaz...

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Assuming Bala grabs red what tactics can we expect from Movistar? Sending Quintana up the road early and forcing GC men to mark him while Bala sits on wheels seems a good plan of action. With a high placed GC wild card to play Valverde shouldn't have his nose in the wind for a second on finishing climbs.

Great question. If Bala takes red, his best defense is to just sit in wheels. The only rider he will likely need to worry about will be Yates due to what the time gaps most likely will be.

Yup. I think Quintana performing well in the ITT is pivotal. He has to be close in order to force GC rivals to mark his attacks.

The only way this backfires is if Yates drops Valverde in pursuit of Quintana. In this case I suppose the plan would be for Quintana to wait and work with Valverde.

1. There are many different scenario's if Valverde takes red, in regards to gap size, how close Quintana is and how close Yates and MAL are.

2. The finish on wednesday is brutally steep and shouldn't actually be super tactical. Having red after Oiz matters more than red after the ITT. Anyone have a more detailed profile of that climb?

3. A lot depends on if Quintana will be ahead or behind MAL on the stage to Andorra. If he's ahead and good in Andorra, MAL might go long, in which case Quintana can just wheel suck MAL all day. If Quintana is behind MAL or bad that is a great way to waste the best possible domestique

4. MAL and Yates have been highly preoccupied with Quintana. If they stop worrying about Quintana tactics will change dramatically.

5. MAL and maybe even Pinot may be wildcards who don't have a big chance to win but may decide the outcome. If Pinot has a great day in Andorra I don't see him sitting on his ass all day.

6. Team strength. As much as Mitchelton has refused to do the work, they had 3 riders in the top 15 yesterday. Jack Haig was 15th and is solid on that level, while Adam Yates was 13th and is finally finding his form. He should be climbing on top 10 level in the crucial stages

7. Vincenzo Nibali training day may or may not strongly interfere with GC favorites plans in Andorra


As for overall stage tactics. I expect Astana to put in the work to track down breakaways cause MAL can't really miss out on bonifications at the finish line if he's the strongest. And if he isn't the strongest, he's not gonna win anyway. Only expect a break to win on La Rabassa, unless MTWN starts shining again