Hot racing coming up in Australia

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It's an opportunity for your quasi-Gerrans types (Impey/McCarthy) to win the GC based off the bonus seconds from that stage. Not really anything a Porte can do about it, has to try and drop them and stay away anyway as Sagan isn't hanging on.
 
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Ferminal said:
It's an opportunity for your quasi-Gerrans types (Impey/McCarthy) to win the GC based off the bonus seconds from that stage. Not really anything a Porte can do about it, has to try and drop them and stay away anyway as Sagan isn't hanging on.
This stage end on a fast and twisting 6km descent - This is where Porte could lose the TDU.
 
Yes Evans lost most of his advantage on the descent. Not sure if there was any headwind as usually he is an excellent descender. As seen before in the TDU, time bonuses are important and Porte really only can grab them on two possible stages which keeps the sprinters in contention.
 
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BalearicBeats said:
Does anyone know if Prades is getting a free role in this race? I'd expect him to do very well here but I don't know his form right now
no idea about his shape, but seeing the Movistar team for the race, he should be the clear captain. Sure, Valls and Fernandez have done well in the past, but they are coming back form a horrendous season
 
May 13, 2015
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WKA311 said:
So Valgren seems like having quite a good condition. Think he could do well in GC.
He'll get destroyed on Willunga Hill. And he isn't fast enough to get bonus seconds.

Only chance for him a a late attack in of the hilly stages. Ideally, the Uraidla stage. And then limit his loses on stage 4 and 6. He could survive stage 4 but will lose at least 20 seconds to Porte on the last stage.
 
May 13, 2015
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Cookster15 said:
WheelofGear said:
WKA311 said:
So Valgren seems like having quite a good condition. Think he could do well in GC.
He'll get destroyed on Willunga Hill. And he isn't fast enough to get bonus seconds.
I'm surprised by this comment after seeing how strong Valgren was in the worlds.
Being great in long, hard one-day races is different from being good at stage races. And these stages are quite short and explosive.

His only chance is an ambush attack. He should be dropped on Corkscrew and Willunga.
 
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tobydawq said:
RedheadDane said:
Aren't Dimension Data going to be riding for Slagter in the GC anyway?
Øh, no? They have a much, much better option in Valgren...
There's a strong possibility that Valgren might not be in particularly good shape here. Unless he has stated otherwise, I think he's here mostly for training miles. Slagter tends to do well in Australia, so he's a more likely option for Dimension Data. And O'Connor will probably test how well he can hang on.
 
May 13, 2015
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I'm not denying that Valgren is a really good rider but I think that he is made for the more unpredictable and draining one-day races. Even the best classics climbers like GVA are not able to win a one-week race with too many hard climbs. Tirreno-Adriatico was an exception because they removed the mountain stage.

I can't see him hanging on to the climbers on Corkscrew and Willunga.
 
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search said:
BalearicBeats said:
Does anyone know if Prades is getting a free role in this race? I'd expect him to do very well here but I don't know his form right now
no idea about his shape, but seeing the Movistar team for the race, he should be the clear captain. Sure, Valls and Fernandez have done well in the past, but they are coming back form a horrendous season

In Fernandez's case it was an season plagued by injuries. I'm hoping he can put together an injury free season this year. Prades could be the race leader for Movistar.
 
Interesting weather coming up for the peleton with 40+ C the first two days and then graduating to 2 days of mid 30's then Sat a bit cooler in the 20's and back to 30ish for Sunday. Winds look moderate at worst, so it won't be as draining as it could be with stronger northerly winds. It will still be very difficult to anyone who is not acclimatized properly. With the technology they have these days maybe it is time to have legends next to each rider the same as racehorses have for their form on fast, good, slow and heavy tracks.....bike riders could have the same for very hot, hot, moderate, cold and freezing rated on how they handle the conditions. Add in wet weather riding as well.

The Australian riders at the National Championships had a good hit out last weekend in reasonably warm weather so I think they will figure prominently. It will be interesting to see the MS tactics in the first two days with the extremely hot conditions and no sprinter. Maybe they will concentrate on picking up bonus points.
 
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Wilba60 said:
Interesting weather coming up for the peleton with 40+ C the first two days and then graduating to 2 days of mid 30's then Sat a bit cooler in the 20's and back to 30ish for Sunday. Winds look moderate at worst, so it won't be as draining as it could be with stronger northerly winds. It will still be very difficult to anyone who is not acclimatized properly. With the technology they have these days maybe it is time to have legends next to each rider the same as racehorses have for their form on fast, good, slow and heavy tracks.....bike riders could have the same for very hot, hot, moderate, cold and freezing rated on how they handle the conditions. Add in wet weather riding as well.

The Australian riders at the National Championships had a good hit out last weekend in reasonably warm weather so I think they will figure prominently. It will be interesting to see the MS tactics in the first two days with the extremely hot conditions and no sprinter. Maybe they will concentrate on picking up bonus points.
Yeah pretty standard for an Australian summer but some of the Euro's won't like it.
 
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movingtarget said:
Wilba60 said:
Interesting weather coming up for the peleton with 40+ C the first two days and then graduating to 2 days of mid 30's then Sat a bit cooler in the 20's and back to 30ish for Sunday. Winds look moderate at worst, so it won't be as draining as it could be with stronger northerly winds. It will still be very difficult to anyone who is not acclimatized properly. With the technology they have these days maybe it is time to have legends next to each rider the same as racehorses have for their form on fast, good, slow and heavy tracks.....bike riders could have the same for very hot, hot, moderate, cold and freezing rated on how they handle the conditions. Add in wet weather riding as well.

The Australian riders at the National Championships had a good hit out last weekend in reasonably warm weather so I think they will figure prominently. It will be interesting to see the MS tactics in the first two days with the extremely hot conditions and no sprinter. Maybe they will concentrate on picking up bonus points.
Yeah pretty standard for an Australian summer but some of the Euro's won't like it.
I would imagine the Spaniards would be fine with it as that seems fairly typical of Spanish summers as well. Their only issue would be that it's currently winter.
 
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Koronin said:
movingtarget said:
Wilba60 said:
Interesting weather coming up for the peleton with 40+ C the first two days and then graduating to 2 days of mid 30's then Sat a bit cooler in the 20's and back to 30ish for Sunday. Winds look moderate at worst, so it won't be as draining as it could be with stronger northerly winds. It will still be very difficult to anyone who is not acclimatized properly. With the technology they have these days maybe it is time to have legends next to each rider the same as racehorses have for their form on fast, good, slow and heavy tracks.....bike riders could have the same for very hot, hot, moderate, cold and freezing rated on how they handle the conditions. Add in wet weather riding as well.

The Australian riders at the National Championships had a good hit out last weekend in reasonably warm weather so I think they will figure prominently. It will be interesting to see the MS tactics in the first two days with the extremely hot conditions and no sprinter. Maybe they will concentrate on picking up bonus points.
Yeah pretty standard for an Australian summer but some of the Euro's won't like it.
I would imagine the Spaniards would be fine with it as that seems fairly typical of Spanish summers as well. Their only issue would be that it's currently winter.
That and the UV exposure is MUCH higher
 

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