Giro d'Italia Il Giro d'Italia 2025: Who will win? Pre-race poll.

[Rackham]

Rogla. GT win number 6.

But the bigger question should be what stages will actually go ahead as planned and according to the current profiles.

A bit of bad weather, a bit of cold, some adverse conditions... and suddenly all the stuff people are really looking forward to gets cut from the menu. It's happening a lot these days and it'll also impact predictions.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Cats are @Dazed and Confused. Supporting El Jaguar de Tulcan and the cat killer, Antonio "Sniper" Tiberi?

Like it.

well, usually its the sort of things teenage boys do when the hormone level hits peak levels and confusion reigns (hello), but since we are in 2025, I'm willing to increase the age bracket to 22 years of age.

 

[Pozzovivo]

well, usually its the sort of things teenage boys do when the hormone level hits peak levels and confusion reigns (hello)

Unsure if you're referring to killing cats or supporting both Carapaz and Tiberi at the same time

 

[OlavEH]

Ultimately it's a very similar field to Catalunya, so unless Ayuso stops flattering to deceive and starts turning the illusion of taking the next step into actually taking the next step, Roglic' biggest enemy is his ability to crash out. Overall the competition looks poor and I expect at least one podium finisher to be a clear indicator of a weak field, e.g. Bilbao doing a 2021 Caruso or Ciccone finally putting it all together.

I guess a better start list than this isn't very likely at the current moment. Pog, Vinge and Remco prioritize the Tour, the better Spanish (Mas and Rodriguez) don't care too much about the Giro and other riders (Jorgenson, Kuss, Almeida) are being domestiques in the Tour. I cant help thinking that the concentration of very good GC riders in UAE, Jumbo and Red Bull and the fierce competition between the big 3 (or big 4) are bad for the start list in the Giro.

We have Roglic, Ayuso, Yates, Yates, Hindley, Vine, Carapaz, Landa, Bilbao, Tiberi and Gaudu. It could have been worse.

 

[topcat]

Ayuso and I will be there to cheer him on.
Am I safe around Tiberi?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Roglic will dominate unless he crashes hard, in which case I put it at 50/50 eking out a win with people blasting his “negative racing” vs. dropping out.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Unsure if you're referring to killing cats or supporting both Carapaz and Tiberi at the same time

Ayuso and I will be there to cheer him on.
Am I safe around Tiberi?

I would take on a dog costume and bank every penny on this is a cat thing.

 

[Escarabajo]

Roglic will dominate unless he crashes hard, in which case I put it at 50/50 eking out a win with people blasting his “negative racing” vs. dropping out.

I am not sure about the bold. I have seen him crack a few times in the past plus he is aging. So He is not a sure thing like people makes him to be in here.

There are riders that will still improve like they have shown in the past. So I won't bet that if not for a crash He is a sure thing. No way.

 

[MLKarlos]

I think Roglic will also have the strongest team with him. Hindley, Martinez, Aleotti and maybe Pellinzarri are quite good as mountain domestique crew.

 

[MLKarlos]

or will pidcock rise from the ashes?

 

[Rackham]

I am not sure about the bold. I have seen him crack a few times in the past plus he is aging. So He is not a sure thing like people makes him to be in here.

There are riders that will still improve like they have shown in the past. So I won't bet that if not for a crash He is a sure thing. No way.

I don't want to jinx anything but I have this feeling that Rog might actually be peaking right here, right now, in 2025. You talk about his 'aging' but let's face facts, i.e. his performance in the Vuelta last year was the best he's ever been in terms of numbers and looking at Catalunya he's riding with a lot of confidence.

I think the Rog of the Vuelta 2024 and Catalunya 2025 edges Jumbo Rog. Definitely the Giro 2023 Rog.

 

[Lequack]

Is Pidcock going for GC?

 

[cen]

I don't want to jinx anything but I have this feeling that Rog might actually be peaking right here, right now, in 2025. You talk about his 'aging' but let's face facts, i.e. his performance in the Vuelta last year was the best he's ever been in terms of numbers and looking at Catalunya he's riding with a lot of confidence.

I think the Rog of the Vuelta 2024 and Catalunya 2025 edges Jumbo Rog. Definitely the Giro 2023 Rog.

Vuelta 24 was mythical Roglic so you might be on to something..

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I am not sure about the bold. (1) I have seen him crack a few times in the past plus he is aging. (2) So He is not a sure thing like people makes him to be in here.

There are riders that will still improve like they have shown in the past. So I won't bet that if not for a crash He is a sure thing. No way.

1. I agree, he has cracked at times, but AFAIK it's been associated with a crash (2023 Giro, though he didn't actually "crack"), preexisting injury (2022 spring campaign), or when his form has clearly not looked right from the get go (Paris-Nice last year, Dauphine last year, though he won, Tour last year). It could change this month, but at this point in time he's not coming off a crash, he isn't injured, and his form looks solid. As someone else said, last year for whatever reason he didn't find his form until the Vuelta. In the Giro, he was getting dropped by Almeida, Ayuso, etc. on very friendly terrain early in the Tour.
2. He's never a sure thing. I give him 75% chance of winning personally because I think only a crash can prevent him from winning, but I think there is a solid chance he crashes and a decent chance that crash is bad.

 

[red_flanders]

This edition is deeply missing Remco. I think it's Primoz in a walk.

 

[Rackham]

1. I agree, he has cracked at times, but AFAIK it's been associated with a crash (2023 Giro, though he didn't actually "crack"), preexisting injury (2022 spring campaign), or when his form has clearly not looked right from the get go (Paris-Nice last year, Dauphine last year, though he won, Tour last year). It could change this month, but at this point in time he's not coming off a crash, he isn't injured, and his form looks solid. As someone else said, last year for whatever reason he didn't find his form until the Vuelta. In the Giro, he was getting dropped by Almeida, Ayuso, etc. on very friendly terrain early in the Tour.
2. He's never a sure thing. I give him 75% chance of winning personally because I think only a crash can prevent him from winning, but I think there is a solid chance he crashes and a decent chance that crash is bad.

Something worth noting IMO is how happy and relaxed Rog looks right now. You can see it before, during and after stages. Just total zenitude on an industrial level.

He seems like he's in a really good place mentally and is now enjoying riding for Bora. Add it all together (including his climbing which seems to be really good) and yeah, big things are possible.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

1. I agree, he has cracked at times, but AFAIK it's been associated with a crash (2023 Giro, though he didn't actually "crack"), preexisting injury (2022 spring campaign), or when his form has clearly not looked right from the get go (Paris-Nice last year, Dauphine last year, though he won, Tour last year). It could change this month, but at this point in time he's not coming off a crash, he isn't injured, and his form looks solid. As someone else said, last year for whatever reason he didn't find his form until the Vuelta. In the Giro, he was getting dropped by Almeida, Ayuso, etc. on very friendly terrain early in the Tour.
2. He's never a sure thing. I give him 75% chance of winning personally because I think only a crash can prevent him from winning, but I think there is a solid chance he crashes and a decent chance that crash is bad.

During the first part of the season, I think he was clearly influenced by the team change, with a lot to fix at Bora. He was acting as a rider, director, coach, and nutritionist, if we're to believe certain statements from the staff, plus a lot of pressure to perform right away.
In any case, I think everything came together to make him look much worse than he actually was. I do believe that in the PN, without the horrible weather he had, he was in shape to fight for the podium and some stages at least.

At the Itzulia, I don't think he was far from his current form, not just because of his TT, I have the feeling, that he was ready to win that race, and then the famous crash happened. At the Dauphiné, he was riding after altitude, but he'd been on the back foot for a while with his knee before the training camp (a bit like in 2022) and was lacking a bit of form, but again, I think without those two crashes he had in the race (one of which hurt his shoulder quite badly), he would have won with much less suffering.
About the Tour, Bora admitted that they messed up in the second training camp and everyone arrived very burned out. Even so, just from what I saw in the time trial and at Le Lioran, it was clear that Roglic was recovering his legs just before his favorite terrain arrived (the collection of mountain finishes + the hilly time trial).

In other words, everything has a more or less logical explanation. The Vuelta wasjust the first time everything went well or normal, that despite the pain in his vertebrae.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Escarabajo]

Am I missing something? with this field how can he be a sure thing if not for a crash? 75% chance taking into account a crash is hugeeeee. If you are that sure you need to bet a million dollars with those odds. Those rae Pogacar's type odds.

 

[Netserk]

Am I missing something? with this field how can he be a sure thing if not for a crash? 75% chance taking into account a crash is hugeeeee. If you are that sure you need to bet a million dollars with those odds. Those rae Pogacar's type odds.

Only if his bankroll is ~$1.75M.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Am I missing something? with this field how can he be a sure thing if not for a crash? 75% chance taking into account a crash is hugeeeee. If you are that sure you need to bet a million dollars with those odds. Those rae Pogacar's type odds.

I’m probably overly enthusiastic, but it was meant to be a directional number, not a hard number. I didn’t think this through mathematically, just said more or less IMO if he doesn’t crash, he will win, and if he does, it’s 50/50. Definitely overstating it if you want to be pedantic.

Having said that, this field is not that good. None of them have proven to have a top level close to Roglic’s top level, even looking just in the last 9 months. Also, Roglic is very consistent - he typically wins or crashed out. Starting in 2020:

• Roglic has won 40% of the GTs he has started, at least 1 of which (Giro 2023) despite a bad crash during the race
• Completed but did not win 20% (losing to Pogacar in 2020 and the team cluster in 2023 Vuelta)
• Crashed out of 40%

 

[CyclistAbi]

IMHO there is a difference if you crash out or are crashed out. So the percentage of GTs, on where Rogla DNF due to crashing, rather low.

In grand scheme of things rather negligible.

 

[JoãoRamos]

Rogla, he is motivated as hell to show Ayuso who is the boss.

 

[red_flanders]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

You don't say.

 

[Netserk]

None of the favourites go for the GC in Tour of the Alps, so little to learn before the race. Ciccone, Bardet and Hindley have confirmed that they are on track, but for various reasons they are unlikely to be contenders for a top-5 in the GC. Gee and Tiberi will show what they've got come May. Martínez showed in Itzulia that he will be a non-entity for GC.

Little news since the start of the month about the startlist.

Any other updates over the past three weeks? Have some of the outsiders confirmed whether they target the GC or not?

PSA: Votes can be changed until the start of the race!