Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

[palmerq]

I think tomorrow even though there is long way to the finish from the top of the mountain... guys like basso(and his liquigas team) and sastre will try to do something..infact if they want to win they will need to start do something... so maybe the pace will be quite hard on the big climb and we will get a good look at all the contenders and how they are looking this year.. might be really boring though but I think it will help us see who is going to be fighting for the win.

 

[marinoni]

Too Early

As numerous times mentioned here, AS is a weak ITT rider. But I remember in 2008 when another Riis boy that was generally a weak ITT rider, showed an impressive ITT on the second last day and collected the Tour win by surprise. But AS will probably still need 2 if not 3 min on a 2009 AC for the ITT.

I agree with the others who say it's too early to say that Schleck is stronger than Contador. However, if he does find himself in the lead going into the time trial then you make a good point. Pantani in the 98 Giro is an even better example. He was generally far worse at TT's than Schleck, but when Tonkov threatened to take the overall in the final TT Pantani had the race of his life and kept his lead. If I were Contador in that situation I'd be very worried if I was more than 90 secs down.

Hopefully, tomorrow they will try to start the fireworks a bit earlier. I am fed up with these 2 to 3km mountainsprints...

I couldn't agree more but don't count on it. The days of watching GC contenders fighting it out over several kilometres of climbing are pretty much over.

 

[JFDavis]

The point was made. Schleck went and Contador couldn't follow. Schleck was testing. Next time Schleck will be confident to make a move further down the climb. The 10 seconds is irrelevant.

My hunch is - AS went and AC *didn't* follow to force a win. Just my hunch. Tactically isn't AC better off letting AS have the attention at this point? I think so, and it is the smarter move than wasting gas for a 2 second win, and for what? This was a test climb for all.

Also very hot day-which doubles the value of riding conservative and expend only enough to keep the upstarts in rein.

 

[oncehadhair]

My hunch is - AS went and AC *didn't* follow to force a win. Just my hunch. Tactically isn't AC better off letting AS have the attention at this point? I think so, and it is the smarter move than wasting gas for a 2 second win, and for what? This was a test climb for all.

Also very hot day-which doubles the value of riding conservative and expend only enough to keep the upstarts in rein.

For the extra effort for a few hundred metres it would have been in AC's interest to follow AS, if only to show him that he could have if he wanted to.

From the looks on their faces, all riders in the group at 10s were done. Evans was hanging on by the skin of his teeth. I'm not sure whether Contador was as bad but he didn't have it in him. Either that or he's smarter than I think he is.

Whatever, it makes for some great racing - spotlight off onenut and realistically 4 or 5 with a good chance. No room for slipups or bad days.

 

[montagna lunga]

I don't see it happening. The fact remains that Andy is not a very good TT'er.

Huh? He IS Luxembourg's TT Champion this year, is he not?

Maybe too early to tell, but remember, most of the clowns who make predictions here hafta wait 6-8 years for them to come "true"

My pick: Cadel

 

[taiwan]

Huh? He IS Luxembourg's TT Champion this year, is he not?

The fact remains that Andy is not a very good TT'er.

 

[montagna lunga]

The fact remains that Andy is not a very good TT'er.

We'll see, LeMonstre took a LOT of time out of a "better" time trialer.

The so-called race of truth was labeled that way for a reason, lost upon the average armchair BBS chatter...

Kinda funny to get so staunch about (as you've unoriginally stated) "the" fact...maybe ...maybe not...we'll just hafta see

 

[Cerberus]

My hunch is - AS went and AC *didn't* follow to force a win. Just my hunch. Tactically isn't AC better off letting AS have the attention at this point? I think so, and it is the smarter move than wasting gas for a 2 second win, and for what? This was a test climb for all.

No he's not better of, he loses 10 seconds and gives of a sign of weakness, and despite that he's still the favourite, just a favourite who might just be beatable after all. As someone who's won 2 GT by less than a minute I don't think Contador would just throw time away to his primary challenger. Honestly I don't think anyone would, can you think of a case where a favourite has just thrown time away to his primary challenger?

Also very hot day-which doubles the value of riding conservative and expend only enough to keep the upstarts in rein.

With the next day being rest day? Not really, certainly you don't go after Gesink, Kreuziger and even Van Den Broeck of all people, but let Andy Schleck go. It seems to me that you (and a number of other people) are so set in your belief that Contador is unbeatable that you can't believe your own eyes when he's not.

 

[sagard]

AC has shown a little weakness at the end of stage 3 (due to equipment) and now stage 8 (due to lack of steepness?). He is still only forty seconds down to his main rival and a minute to Cadel. Things are looking pretty good if your AC in my opinion.

However he probably can't afford a bad day now. At least it looks like there will interest going into the third week for a change.

 

[Road Hazard]

It may be a case over over-analyzing. The criticism against Contador has been that he has the talent but not the strategic wits, that he was coached to victory in spite of himself by Bruyneel et al.

Contador has been saying for months that the Pyrenees would decide the Tour. He may have told himself so many times to ride conservatively until the Pyrenees that he wasn't mentally prepared to respond on instinct to A. Schleck.

Who knows. I still think he'll have it on those (sadly) few mountain climbs that decide the Tour and the time trial.

 

[rata de sentina]

IMO the stage 8 finale is being completely over interpreted on this and other threads. The climb flattens out in the last km and the road is very smooth. What it does show is that AS has good form which a lot of people were questioning and the main surprise for me was that he beat SS in a sprint. I am not so sure that AS having a bit more speed than AC momentarily on 4% gradient after the latter had just chased countered two other attacks means a a lot in the scheme of things.

 

[Publicus]

IMO the stage 8 finale is being completely over interpreted on this and other threads. The climb flattens out in the last km and the road is very smooth. What it does show is that AS has good form which a lot of people were questioning and the main surprise for me was that he beat SS in a sprint. I am not so sure that AS having a bit more speed than AC momentarily on 4% gradient after the latter had just chased countered two other attacks means a a lot in the scheme of things.

Means even less since the final km had an average gradient of 2.1%.

 

[Road Hazard]

Well, to play devil's advocate, the flat part at the top should not trouble a championship level time trialist.?

Overall, I agree that too much is made of that last bit of the stage.

 

[Cerberus]

IMO the stage 8 finale is being completely over interpreted on this and other threads. The climb flattens out in the last km and the road is very smooth. What it does show is that AS has good form which a lot of people were questioning and the main surprise for me was that he beat SS in a sprint. I am not so sure that AS having a bit more speed than AC momentarily on 4% gradient after the latter had just chased countered two other attacks means a a lot in the scheme of things.

Obviously no one with a clue thinks that the Tour is settled by this or even that who is the best climber is settled. I do not however believe that the 2009 Contador would have been dropped by the 2009 AS under similar circumstances, in fact 2009 Contador might very well have attacked earlier and dropped everyone on the steeper sections.

Contador even said himself he had trouble on the climb, he might have been lying, but I think it's more likely he wasn't. It might just have been one of-day of cause, but I think the race is legitimately more open than it was before stage 8.

 

[Rb2112]

In the immortal words of Pam Anderson in Barb Wire (stolen by Phil Ligget): "are you coming or not"- at Morzine AC's answer was not. Hopefully at Ax-3 the answer will be "yes" and then some. Great tour so far!!

 

[M Sport]

Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

The winner will be either Contador, Schleck or Evans ..... IMO with this percentage chance;

AC 70%
AS 25%
CE 5%

So to answer your question, he has slightly more chance than when he started, but still slim. Evans has next to no chance but still worth mentioning.

The others. Forget about them, they are racing for the minor placings at best.

 

[flicker]

he needs 3 mins going into that final TT, that is a lot, he needs to drop contador on each of the remaining mountain finishes, by a long way. i don't think he can do that.

I disagree. I think Andy has a chance against Contador with2 :50 before the TT. I might be wrong though.

 

[flicker]

No disrespect to Frank, Andy or the Schleck family but having Andy on his own is beneficial to Andy.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

^ I don't think it makes a lot of difference. Frank looked good this year, having two real threats can work wonders.

The winner will be either Contador, Schleck or Evans ..... IMO with this percentage chance;

AC 70%
AS 25%
CE 5%

So to answer your question, he has slightly more chance than when he started, but still slim. Evans has next to no chance but still worth mentioning.

The others. Forget about them, they are racing for the minor placings at best.

Curious to how the statistics were formed. Can't be based on GT history, (a proven GT winner -menchov-... who didn't ride the hardest GT in recent memory... but yeah... evans is a much more likely winner) cause I don't get it..

I think it's a joke when people give riders like menchov , basso etc no hope. Ignorance is bliss.

That being said I do agree AC is still the favorite, and andy probably the next best.

 

[flicker]

Curious to how the statistics were formed.

I think it's a joke when people give riders like menchov (a proven GT winner... who didn't ride the hardest GT in recent memory... but yeah... evans is a much more likely winner), basso etc no hope. Ignorance is bliss.

Sorry Contador is unbeatable. He is the new Merckx, with the same class as Merckx. Different catagory rider then Menchov, Basso etc. I do think Lars Boom will be up there in a few years.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Sorry Contador is unbeatable. He is the new Merckx, with the same class as Merckx. Different catagory rider then Menchov, Basso etc. I do think Lars Boom will be up there in a few years.

That's interesting...
....Yeah Lars boom will never be up there.... unless he signs for garmin maybe

And yeah my post wasn't really in relation to AC, I would actually have him higher then 70% (I don't think he is unbeatable though... no way. There are guys here who can climb with him, but he is overall a better rider for sure.) More to the fact that some discount some really good riders.

 

[flicker]

That's interesting...
....Yeah Lars boom will never be up there.... unless he signs for garmin maybe

And yeah my post wasn't really in relation to AC, I would actually have him higher then 70% (I don't think he is unbeatable though... no way. There are guys here who can climb with him, but he is overall a better rider for sure.) More to the fact that some discount some really good riders.

I will stick to my guns here. Andy is way better off without Frank. Andy even sans Frank doesn't have it in the head to beat Contador. Contador blew it Sunday, but his team blew all the riders off except Andy Kruetzenger and Sanchez. A tactical error. You see the hurt they put on Cadel and he is top knotch right now. Contador is the man for the next 5 years. Andy never to beat him. I still like Lars Boom though. Just a feeling.

 

[ScottyMuser]

Huh? He IS Luxembourg's TT Champion this year, is he not?
l

Thats fairly irrelevant - IIRC there were 3 pros who actually rode that course, and Frank is even weaker than Andy. The prologue showed how weak Schleck is at time trialling - he lost 40 secs, after putting one of his better TTs in, to Contador who didn't ride as well as he did last year, over 8km.

 

[Cerberus]

Thats fairly irrelevant - IIRC there were 3 pros who actually rode that course, and Frank is even weaker than Andy. The prologue showed how weak Schleck is at time trialling - he lost 40 secs, after putting one of his better TTs in, to Contador who didn't ride as well as he did last year, over 8km.

The opening TT was one of Andy Schlecks worst TTs, probably the worst ever in any race he cared about. It was certainly not one of his best or even one of his normal ones. Andy Schleck lost more time on this 8 K TT to Cancellara than he did in the 30 K TT in 2008, that might have been one of his better TTs.

 

[theyoungest]

I will stick to my guns here. Andy is way better off without Frank. Andy even sans Frank doesn't have it in the head to beat Contador. Contador blew it Sunday, but his team blew all the riders off except Andy Kruetzenger and Sanchez. A tactical error. You see the hurt they put on Cadel and he is top knotch right now. Contador is the man for the next 5 years. Andy never to beat him. I still like Lars Boom though. Just a feeling.

Yeah, there's been some stories in the Dutch media about why he's the Dutch GC hope, and not Gesink. I have no idea why. He has no consistency, and when he feels slightly off he just lets go completely. He's talented, sure, but he's more the type of rider who shines on one day and fades away on the next.