Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

[theyoungest]

Obviously, but why would he be happy to follow if he was sure he could have dropped Andy like he did last year? 41 seconds is probably something Contador can take twice over on the TT, but what if Contador has a bad day, on the TT or on another day? A 41 second deficit going out of this stage isn't a bad situation for Contador by any means, but it's hardly ideal either. Last year at this point Contador had put his stamp firmly on the race, this year he hasn't. I think that means that Andy is closer in strenght, but as I said I'm obviously just speculating.

Andy looks closer than last year, sure, but I think Contador was content to put time into the other rivals. Maybe he was even hoping for Sammy Sanchez to latch on in the descent, to make the final 10 k less of an ordeal. But even without Sanchez, with the two of them they created more of an advantage than either of them could have done on their own.

 

[Cerberus]

Andy looks closer than last year, sure, but I think Contador was content to put time into the other rivals. Maybe he was even hoping for Sammy Sanchez to latch on in the descent, to make the final 10 k less of an ordeal.

They didn't want SS to latch on they were clearly working to distance him as much as anyone, otherwise they'd have waited when he was 12 seconds behind on the bottom of the descent.

But even without Sanchez, with the two of them they created more of an advantage than either of them could have done on their own.

That's probably true , but IMO either of them can take time on anyone except the other any time they want. That makes time taken form the other far more valuable than time on the people fighting for third. I think either of them would happily have traded 2 minutes on everyone save the other for 1 minute on everybody including the other.

Still we'll probably see Contador try something on the Pyrenees (and if he doesn't that tells something to) and we'll then know more about their relative strenght - that won't stop me from speculating wildly in the interim though.

 

[Angliru]

Obviously, but why would he be happy to follow if he was sure he could have dropped Andy like he did last year? 41 seconds is probably something Contador can take twice over on the TT, but what if Contador has a bad day, on the TT or on another day? A 41 second deficit going out of this stage isn't a bad situation for Contador by any means, but it's hardly ideal either. Last year at this point Contador had put his stamp firmly on the race, this year he hasn't. I think that means that Andy is closer in strenght, but as I said I'm obviously just speculating.

Because it's easier to gain time as two than as one. Additionally, with km's of flat leading in to the finish riding solo would be more taxing at this juncture and its about gaining time AND conserving energy for the 3rd week.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Didn't any one watch Andy's interview after stage 9?

First off, he is actually very funny. Asked by Andreu/Ventura (sorry, can't recall) if he was testing AC's legs he scoffed. It was no test 'I was all in'.

He also said that if he attacked one more time on the climb he would have dropped himself.

He is a good natured guy, so he was not ticked off or at least didn't show it, but did seem a little like 'What the heck does it take to drop AC?'

We'll see how it goes while in yellow. It hasn't been a good luck charm lately. I expect he will have it all week, though, if not more.

 

[Publicus]

Obviously, but why would he be happy to follow if he was sure he could have dropped Andy like he did last year? 41 seconds is probably something Contador can take twice over on the TT, but what if Contador has a bad day, on the TT or on another day? A 41 second deficit going out of this stage isn't a bad situation for Contador by any means, but it's hardly ideal either. Last year at this point Contador had put his stamp firmly on the race, this year he hasn't. I think that means that Andy is closer in strenght, but as I said I'm obviously just speculating.

Because of the situation of the stage (no MTF, with long descent and 10KM flat run in). Better to have someone else to work with and maximize the advantage. If he goes over alone, he is likely caught on the descent and all of the work to drop Andy is for naught.

As for not putting a stamp on this Tour, that's fair point. Last year, however, was a totally different course (opening TT, TTT and internal team strife), which warranted different tactics. I don't think AC or Astana has any interest in having the yellow jersey, or taking the weight of the race on their shoulders. Certainly they've shown their strength when it was advantageous (Stage 8 and 9), but they've otherwise been content to just minimize their effort where possible.

More to the point, Andy HAS to put his stamp on this Tour much sooner principally because of his relative weakness in the final TT. He needs (or needed) to gain as much time as possible on his rivals in advance of Stage 19. AC doesn't have that same impetus and cane be more selective about when he attacks. So I don't know if you can draw any conclusions about AC's form because he has not elected to attack.

 

[Cerberus]

Because of the situation of the stage (no MTF, with long descent and 10KM flat run in). Better to have someone else to work with and maximize the advantage. If he goes over alone, he is likely caught on the descent and all of the work to drop Andy is for naught.

As for not putting a stamp on this Tour, that's fair point. Last year, however, was a totally different course (opening TT, TTT and internal team strife), which warranted different tactics. I don't think AC or Astana has any interest in having the yellow jersey, or taking the weight of the race on their shoulders. Certainly they've shown their strength when it was advantageous (Stage 8 and 9), but they've otherwise been content to just minimize their effort where possible.

More to the point, Andy HAS to put his stamp on this Tour much sooner principally because of his relative weakness in the final TT. He needs (or needed) to gain as much time as possible on his rivals in advance of Stage 19. AC doesn't have that same impetus and cane be more selective about when he attacks. So I don't know if you can draw any conclusions about AC's form because he has not elected to attack.

Don't start arguing against my perfectly reasonable wild speculation, damn you!

Really though, considering Astana's strenght I don't think the jersey would be a problem for them, but we should see something more definitive in the Pyrenees. If Contador plays solely defence there I think it has to be because he can't do anymore, if he does attack we'll see whether he can drop Andy and if the gaps are smaller than last year. If Andy drops Contador I'm obviously going to have to go back to my posts from around now quoting selected potion to make it seem like I predicted it all along.

 

[Publicus]

Don't start arguing against my perfectly reasonable wild speculation, damn you!

Really though, considering Astana's strenght I don't think the jersey would be a problem for them, but we should see something more definitive in the Pyrenees. If Contador plays solely defence there I think it has to be because he can't do anymore, if he does attack we'll see whether he can drop Andy and if the gaps are smaller than last year. If Andy drops Contador I'm obviously going to have to go back to my posts from around now quoting selected potion to make it seem like I predicted it all along.

LOL. Let's just say you've boxed in the possible choices and should be covered in any event.

 

[Cerberus]

LOL. Let's just say you've boxed in the possible choices and should be covered in any event.

Well if Klöden makes a spectacular comeback and wins the race I might have to eat crow. I haven't covered Van den Broeck either (who has incidentally been the big positive surprise this year IMO). But yeah, I have this inborn reluctance to make to firm predictions based on less than conclusive evidence.

 

[ttrider]

on stage 9 they were equal andy even said he feared damage if he did another attack and contador had no issues

they both chose the sensible option of making it a 2 horse race at the end of the day....
why risk blowing each other to pieces with a descent to the finish and 2 weeks till paris??

 

[jamfra67]

We will know who is stronger on stages 12, 14 and 16.I beleive that's where El Pistolero will make his moves. The pressure is on Andy now and there is no need for AC to go for it yet. the battle lines are drawn. The other contenders will attack to make up time which will most likely work in AC's favour

 

[Rb2112]

AC to get back 1/2 his deficit from AS Friday at Mende & win the stage to Ax-3 on Sunday.

 

[flicker]

We will know who is stronger on stages 12, 14 and 16.I beleive that's where El Pistolero will make his moves. The pressure is on Andy now and there is no need for AC to go for it yet. the battle lines are drawn. The other contenders will attack to make up time which will most likely work in AC's favour

Why should cont. bother? Wait till the tt. Cont is 100X better then Andy.

 

[Cerberus]

Why should cont. bother? Wait till the tt. Cont is 100X better then Andy.

Because he's going to feel damn stupid if Andy puts out a super performance on the ITT or if Contador has a puncture, crash or off-day.

 

[flicker]

Don't start arguing against my perfectly reasonable wild speculation, damn you!

Really though, considering Astana's strenght I don't think the jersey would be a problem for them, but we should see something more definitive in the Pyrenees. If Contador plays solely defence there I think it has to be because he can't do anymore, if he does attack we'll see whether he can drop Andy and if the gaps are smaller than last year. If Andy drops Contador I'm obviously going to have to go back to my posts from around now quoting selected potion to make it seem like I predicted it all along.

Andy is cute in his sprints and interviews. Other than that Contador rules. Ultra pregunta por favor.

 

[Tangled Tango]

AC to get back 1/2 his deficit from AS Friday at Mende & win the stage to Ax-3 on Sunday.

Exactly what I expect. Friday a nasty attack at the bottom of the final climb.
Sunday an all out attack for yellow. Defend Monday and Tuesday and seal the deal stage 17 on the Tourmalet. By then AC won´t need to do too much in the TT.

Could all go wrong, but this is how I see it unfolding.

 

[balkou]

Tomorrow we'll get an idea if AC is in trouble or not. Surely Andy looks in better form, but what if Contador has planned to peak in the last week?

In any case, Andy must create a cushion of 1'30''-2' if he's fancying the victory.