Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

[LiboHC]

Andy capable of doing some fireworks (like in Morzin), but for the yellow in Paris. I guess,White jersey suits him more!

 

[ManInFull]

The opening TT was one of Andy Schlecks worst TTs, probably the worst ever in any race he cared about. It was certainly not one of his best or even one of his normal ones. Andy Schleck lost more time on this 8 K TT to Cancellara than he did in the 30 K TT in 2008, that might have been one of his better TTs.

AS and AC will do better in TTs that include a good bit of climbing. That's why they both did well in last year's last TT. The upcoming TT is very flat and will hurt AS more than AC.

 

[M Sport]

I think it's a joke when people give riders like menchov , basso etc no hope. Ignorance is bliss.

That being said I do agree AC is still the favorite, and andy probably the next best.

I wouldn't rule Basso out if he was even or near Evans' time, fact is right now he is 2.41 down, likewise I rate Menchov but he's not close enough to Evans and he would need to be in front of Contador now by a large margin to have any chance of winning in Paris.

The cold hard facts are unless some crazy fan or random mechanical act takes both them out then the winner will be Andy or Alberto, with a slight remote chance of an Evans win.

 

[ManInFull]

For the extra effort for a few hundred metres it would have been in AC's interest to follow AS, if only to show him that he could have if he wanted to.

From the looks on their faces, all riders in the group at 10s were done. Evans was hanging on by the skin of his teeth. I'm not sure whether Contador was as bad but he didn't have it in him. Either that or he's smarter than I think he is.

Whatever, it makes for some great racing - spotlight off onenut and realistically 4 or 5 with a good chance. No room for slipups or bad days.

I just don't think AC had it. If he did, then why didn't he test the GC contenders after his last domestique was done with a phenomenal pull? It wouldn't have hurt anything and maybe he would have gotten 10, 20, or 30 seconds on Cuddles and GS. AC just didn't have it.

 

[ManInFull]

I wouldn't rule Basso out if he was even or near Evans' time, fact is right now he is 2.41 down, likewise I rate Menchov but he's not close enough to Evans and he would need to be in front of Contador now by a large margin to have any chance of winning in Paris.

The cold hard facts are unless some crazy fan or random mechanical act takes both them out then the winner will be Andy or Alberto, with a slight remote chance of an Evans win.

I think Basso would also have to have at least 2:30 or more on AS or Cuddles prior to the TT.

 

[Cerberus]

AS and AC will do better in TTs that include a good bit of climbing. That's why they both did well in last year's last TT. The upcoming TT is very flat and will hurt AS more than AC.

I wasn't talking about the TTs last year (at least not only) because they did indeed have climbs. Look at the stage 20 of the 2007 Giro.(flat 43 k) or stage 4 of the 2008 Tour (30 k flat). In both races Schleck lost about 1 minute 30 sec to the winner and only 1 minute to the best GC rider. Schleck will obviously lose time, but he might not lose as much time as many think. The notion that the prologue was a "good" or even passable performance by Schlecks' normal standard certainly has no basis in reality.

 

[palmerq]

I think schleck lost around 1:45 to contador last year but it was 10 km or so shorter I think.... but if contador is not on as good form as last year and andy is on good form then the time loss could be the same again on this longer tt... I think it all depends on what form contador is on... if he rides as well as last year he will win but I think he is quite a bit below last years level so schleck has a chance of victory..

 

[Angliru]

My hunch is - AS went and AC *didn't* follow to force a win. Just my hunch. Tactically isn't AC better off letting AS have the attention at this point? I think so, and it is the smarter move than wasting gas for a 2 second win, and for what? This was a test climb for all.

Also very hot day-which doubles the value of riding conservative and expend only enough to keep the upstarts in rein.

Astana and AC spent a lot of time in the wind setting the tempo. Riding 2nd and 3rd wheel compared to riding further down in the pack is a bit more taxing. Also as stated, AC answering the attacks of Kreuziger, Van Den Broeck and Gesink was what put the nail in the coffin for his legs, leaving him unable to answer AS' attack. He seldom makes the same mistake twice and I believe he'll have more than enough to respond when AS attacks again.

 

[Angliru]

Huh? He IS Luxembourg's TT Champion this year, is he not?

Maybe too early to tell, but remember, most of the clowns who make predictions here hafta wait 6-8 years for them to come "true"

My pick: Cadel

That's a massive talent pool there. His only competition(Kirchen) is in a hospital. Speaking of, what is the latest on Kirchen's condition?

 

[Angliru]

IMO the stage 8 finale is being completely over interpreted on this and other threads. The climb flattens out in the last km and the road is very smooth. What it does show is that AS has good form which a lot of people were questioning and the main surprise for me was that he beat SS in a sprint. I am not so sure that AS having a bit more speed than AC momentarily on 4% gradient after the latter had just chased countered two other attacks means a a lot in the scheme of things.

Precisely. I just think many see the action in the final km's of stage 8 as an indication that just maybe there will be more of a race for 1st instead simply everyone else battling for the 2 remain podium places. I see it as AC still gaining experience in how to guage his efforts and smartly choose his battles admitting after the stage these very same things, that he mistakenly chased too many attacks instead of waiting for the most important one, inevitably coming from AS.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Schleck was going more for the stage win. There was a headwind and he knew he would not put much time into those riders. 10 seconds is nothing he will need at least another minute on Contador before the time trial.

I think Contador always intended to hold back until the Pyrenees and conserve as much as possible on the cobbles. He did admit that he struggled on the previous stage but so did many others. At least the Tour is shaping up as being much more competitive than last years inevitable win. The first mountaintop finish in the Pyrenees will shake things up. People like Basso, Sastre and Evans may be struggling by then. I hope not though. The more dramatic and closer, the better. Be very interesting to see how long Van Den broek and Kreuziger can hang in. Both are riding well as is Gesink.

 

[unsheath]

Its all pretty simple really. If AC was in AS's shoes he would have won the stage. You can't pull back consecutive attacks and expect to win the stage.

 

[Christian]

That's a massive talent pool there. His only competition(Kirchen) is in a hospital. Speaking of, what is the latest on Kirchen's condition?

Went to visit Fränk Schleck, who was in the same hospital, then got released from the hospital, went right to the next hospital to witness the birth of his twin boys.

I think that's the latest

He seems to be healthy again, but no news on what may have caused his cardiac arrest. There has been some speculation about genetic reasons though, since two relatives of his have also suffered cardiac arrests before

 

[saganftw]

andy has to attack on the flat,today was obvious he is not strong enough to go away in mountains

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yeah, had the stage finished on the top i'm sure ac would have gotten away. he didn't even try to get awaay from schleck, had more sense with the descent in mind. Plus he followed schlecks moves with ease.

 

[Angliru]

Went to visit Fränk Schleck, who was in the same hospital, then got released from the hospital, went right to the next hospital to witness the birth of his twin boys.

I think that's the latest

He seems to be healthy again, but no news on what may have caused his cardiac arrest. There has been some speculation about genetic reasons though, since two relatives of his have also suffered cardiac arrests before

Thanks for the update!

 

[JFDavis]

For the extra effort for a few hundred metres it would have been in AC's interest to follow AS, if only to show him that he could have if he wanted to.

From the looks on their faces, all riders in the group at 10s were done. Evans was hanging on by the skin of his teeth. I'm not sure whether Contador was as bad but he didn't have it in him. Either that or he's smarter than I think he is.

Whatever, it makes for some great racing - spotlight off onenut and realistically 4 or 5 with a good chance. No room for slipups or bad days.

I agree with what your saying here somewhat now. I don't have access to live stream coverage. I saw the pics of the finish after my post yesterday and AC does look a tad wasted. Good on Schleck if he has the spare fuel/physio in the high temps. He's got the thin lanky frame which is a good radiator

Anyway...looking at post counts after this weekend indicates we are enjoying this year venture...

 

[scribe]

yeah, had the stage finished on the top i'm sure ac would have gotten away. he didn't even try to get awaay from schleck, had more sense with the descent in mind. Plus he followed schlecks moves with ease.

I saw AC begging Andy to work together in reeling in the breakaway.

 

[Cerberus]

I saw AC begging Andy to work together in reeling in the breakaway.

I think that they were looking for time on their competitors, not for a stage win.

 

[scribe]

I think that they were looking for time on their competitors, not for a stage win.

The breakaway today really electrified the stage. AC/AS clearly were not aiming for the stage win, but they also didn't need so many minutes on the field behind, even though that was bonus.

 

[Publicus]

I saw AC begging Andy to work together in reeling in the breakaway.

I don't if it was begging, so much as it was AC showing much more tactical sense than Andy.

The breakaway today really electrified the stage. AC/AS clearly were not aiming for the stage win, but they also didn't need so many minutes on the field behind, even though that was bonus.

You have that backwards in my opinion. They needed as much time on the folks behind them as they could get in this situation. That was the only reason to work together.

 

[Cerberus]

I don't if it was begging, so much as it was AC showing much more tactical sense than Andy.

I'm re-watching the stage right now, based on the footage it looks like it was Andy who stopped attacking and called for the truce. In any case I don't think that it's about tactical sense. If either of them could have dropped the other I think that would have made perfect sense. Andy tried and failed while Contador didn't try. I think he didn't try because he wasn't sure he could do it, but that's obviously a matter of speculation.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador didn't try because he was happy to follow. And Andy Schleck stopped because the attacks cost a lot of energy and he went all out in trying to drop Contador. When the last one didn't work they just decided to drop Sanchez who kept coming back

 

[Mellow Velo]

I also just re-watched the attacks. Contador really wasn't put into any difficulty.
Andy soon realised the inevitable and made the "pact".

I have always thought this race was about 3rd week form.
Sunday should tell us much more.

 

[Cerberus]

Contador didn't try because he was happy to follow.

Obviously, but why would he be happy to follow if he was sure he could have dropped Andy like he did last year? 41 seconds is probably something Contador can take twice over on the TT, but what if Contador has a bad day, on the TT or on another day? A 41 second deficit going out of this stage isn't a bad situation for Contador by any means, but it's hardly ideal either. Last year at this point Contador had put his stamp firmly on the race, this year he hasn't. I think that means that Andy is closer in strenght, but as I said I'm obviously just speculating.