Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

[McClimber]

10 secs is not much. Andy is going to have to do that everyday to get enough time by the TT.

Andy is going to need 5 minutes by the TT it keep ahead of the others.

There are lots of mountain days for the battles to continue.

Good thing there are riders willing to attack and counter attack. Radio Shack is just going to sit back an watch.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Good thing there are riders willing to attack and counter attack. Radio Shack is just going to sit back an watch.

If they sit any further back, they'll be watching on TV.

 

[rshimizu12]

I was amazed as well that Contador could not keep up with Schleck. One probable reason is because Astana was doing most of the work. I think Astana should have tried to make others and Schleck lead the break. I doubt the heat and pollen reasons played a factor.

 

[VeloCity]

It is too early to call but I agree, I don't think AC is as strong in the climbs as last year

i wonder if that may be part of the overall plan - Contador has been stressing the importance of the Pyrenees for a while now, and of course being Spanish he probably wants to impress the homefolk, so I get the sense that he's maybe just a wee tiny little bit below tip-top form at the moment, with the idea being that he'll ride himself into tip-top shape for the Pyrenees. And if that's the case, watch out.

But if that is even remotely true, it's a dangerous game, cause there's always the chance of losing too much time before then.

Definitely going to be an interesting stage tomorrow if AS smells a little blood.

 

[theyoungest]

Denis Menchov(cyclist) doesn t even speaks English very well.

No offense, but I think Menchov's fluency in English is on par with yours.

 

[US Patent Exploding Cyclist]

If AS is going to win he'll need to answer an attack from riders like Sastre or Gesink that the other favorites cannot or do not cover. (Unlikely)

As discussed in the Menchov-Contador thread, it doesn't help Shleck if he gets 3 min on Menchov and in the process pulls Contador up the slopes with him. (More Likely)

He has to gain time solo or with people that can't beat him in the TT. (A bit too obvious but I'll leave it)

 

[Cerberus]

10 secs is not much. Andy is going to have to do that everyday to get enough time by the TT.

Andy is going to need 5 minutes by the TT it keep ahead of the others

I hope that's deliberate hyperbole. Andy is going to need 1-3 minutes to his GC competitors.

 

[woodburn]

IMHO, different courses and situations though. Last year he attacked on the Arcalis climb which has an average of slope of almost 8 % at the end of a 224 km where he was always protected by teammates (i.e. he was fresh and Astana slowed down the tempo quite a bit);yesterday's climb was quite tough at the beginning but then flattens a bit, he also spend some of time in the wind making sure Armstrong would never see the front and to bury his GC chances.

It is too early to call but I agree, I don't think AC is as strong in the climbs as last year but I also think AS is opening his mouth way too soon.

Should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow...

AS might be a bit overconfident but that might be because he sees it realistic that he can win. His comments come because how good he felt on the climb and that he dropped AC.

That said, I don't think he will do much tomorrow. No need to waste energy with 30k after the final climb.

 

[JPbianchi]

Andy has a long way to win the tour

I do not think that AC is in trouble afterall with the huge speeed on the last climb and he did respond to 3 attacks before Andy left him. We'll see next week and hopefully they will be all tired and it will not be a business of team, and mates but just a battle among the leaders. AC is very smart and andy on the climb still has to be aware that AC will not be dropped that easily

 

[Christian]

That being said, I think Andy is already reading too much into what happened yesterday. He took it to mean that he is now the strongest climber. AC said going in that the Alps would not be decisive, that the winner of the stage might get a few seconds on the other contenders. That it would be a stage about fitness. Which is pretty much what happened.

Well everyone already knew he was one of the strongest climbers anyways - I think this stage win was mostly a boost for his moral. Last year he tried to drop Contador countless times and never succeeded, so this was really important psychologically, even if 10 seconds is not much.

On the other hand, I think it's delusional to think any of the GC contendors could gain more than 30 or 45 seconds on Contador at one time, so you have to collect all the seconds that you can.

I don't see it happening. The fact remains that Andy is not a very good TT'er.

That is definitely true, but if you look at two similar ITT's then that might give Andy some hope:

1) The ITT of the 2007 Giro: Similar length (43 km) and profile to this year's and also the penultimate stage.
Granted, the field was not as strong as the Tour's this year, but still, Andy's result was pretty impressive: he came in 6th with 50 seconds on Zabriskie and 12 on Bruseghin, both really good time trialers. Schleck went into the ITT 2nd overall and was able to keep that place, even gain time on Di Luca (who was, in hindsight, probably doped).

2) The ITT of the 2008 Tour de France: exactly 53 km, also the penultimate stage, a little hillier though. While Andy's performance was not extraordinary (30th, 2 mins down on Evans and Menchov), we have to remember that he had absolutely nothing to gain or lose anymore, as he was in 12th place overall, over 10 minutes back before the ITT.
However, it is not Andy's performance in this specific ITT that I want to draw your attention to, but Carlos Sastre's: he came in 12th, roughly 30 seconds behind Evans and Menchov. Sastre was and still is not known as a good ITT'er, but he went into a relatively flat 53 km long ITT on the Tour's penultimate stage wearing yellow and he was able to hold on to it.

What I'm trying to say is that on long, flat ITT's at the very end of a GT, motivation and recovery play a very important role. If Andy goes into the ITT wearing yellow (of which there is a realistic chance IMO), and if he recovers well, then he can do much better than what one might expect of him.

Of course the odds are still against him, but I do think those are valid examples to prove that an extraordinary showing by Andy in the ITT is not that unlikely. The odds were also against Sastre back in 2008 (at least from what I expected), but he managed to hold on to 1 minute.

So if Schleck hais 1:30 on Contador (which would be another 50 seconds to what he already has), then he might be able to pull off a Sastre - depending on how Contador will do.

I think Andy is getting a bit ahead of himself. I recall last year he said the very same thing, that he was the best climber in the world. If he actually still believe that was the case why did he wait so long to attack? I think he's playing with fire by making these silly public statements.

I wouldn't take his statements too seriously: I compare it to the comments of boxers previous to a match. You need to fire yourself up and try to destabilize the opponent as much as you can. He's trying to motivate himself, that's all I'd say. He needs to believe in himself, otherwise you can't win the Tour. So I'd be worried if he said "It was a nice stage win but I don't want to give it too much importance since it was only 2,1%. Alberto is still the strongest and I'm really scared for the Pyrenées."

He probably is scared for the Pyrenées, but you just don't say that, you need to be confident and if not then at least appear really confident.

I hope that's deliberate hyperbole. Andy is going to need 1-3 minutes to his GC competitors.

Yes I think that is much more accurate too.

 

[franciep10]

Of course andy is capable of beating AC but he dropped contador on the flat section of the climb on a 2% gradient nothing spectacular about that, a good win but nothing spectacular if he's dropping Contador in the Pyrenees then we have something to talk about

 

[rickibobbi]

I agree, the last km wasn't uphill in any real way, any speculation on AC's fitness, etc is premature and naive. And let's assume AC was having problems breathing, imagine what that means when he isn't!?! And I'm not a fan(atic) booster of any particular rider. But so far there is no useful info that any one existing GC contender is stronger/weaker than thought. The problem is that anything could happen, a crash, a puncture, etc, that throws things up for grabs. Think about how lucky Armstrong has been through the years and how bad luck can change everything. So, what we have is a general idea of form, if this holds, its Contador's race because, at the least, he's as good a climber as Schleck (probably much better) and a much better time trialist. And others like Evans and Basso and Menchov just don't have the explosive climbing power of either Schleck or Contador and are no better now at the TT as AC. Again, this is if form holds. The one thing that should cause other teams to pause is that Astana has looked like a very strong team, contrary to expectations.

 

[rickibobbi]

Sastre in 2008 benefited from Evans being really banged up for the final TT, (remember Evans was in a really bad fall, urinating blood etc.). So its not clear that's a good example for Schleck and AC.

 

[Christian]

Sastre in 2008 benefited from Evans being really banged up for the final TT, (remember Evans was in a really bad fall, urinating blood etc.). So its not clear that's a good example for Schleck and AC.

Hm I didn't remember that but still Sastre's performance was better than anyone expected of him

 

[Cerberus]

Hm I didn't remember that but still Sastre's performance was better than anyone expected of him

Also in the first TT where he had something to gain Andy beat Sastre and conceded only 1 minute to Evans and Menchov (the best Gc contender on that stage) in a flat 30 k TT.

 

[Publicus]

@Christian:

I don't doubt that he took a psychological boost from it, but I'll say he should be a bit more measured in how much of a boost he's taken. It wasn't like he dropped him on the steepest slopes of the climb.

 

[Mont Ventoux]

Andy did show a certain amount of cockiness, but I'm not sure that it will have staying power.
Alberto will have to worry about avoiding trouble and maybe even a misplaced RadioShack musette.
Vive Le Tour.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I think Andy is getting a bit ahead of himself. I recall last year he said the very same thing, that he was the best climber in the world. If he actually still believe that was the case why did he wait so long to attack? I think he's playing with fire by making these silly public statements. He's has potential of becoming the uphill version of a certain sprinter with HTC, except he has someone that actually might hand him his head. Also what makes him think that he was any stronger than Samuel Sanchez since only a cramp and a premature start to the sprint stopped Samu from taking the stage win.

Could be a mindgame by andy to draw AC into needless attacks more out of pride than out of tactics. I am sticking with AC ftw. Tomorrow's stage should be interesting simply because it is the biggest climbs yet, but we'll have to see about them all coming back together on the descent. YAWN! Unless Evans gets buried on the climb and has to descend like a madman to prevent a massive time loss.

I think astana gets the day off tomorrow, except for AC, who hopefully has his allergy problem in hand. Not anticipating much shakeup in the top 4 tomorrow. RS becomes a sideshow just to see if they can survive or make a difference. I am actually hoping Lance is well enough to continue. Of course, simply so that he can get smoked next weekend once and for all.

 

[theswordsman]

I think a lot of what this is what I call the Verbier-effect. If Contador doesn't crush his competition like on Verbier, that means he is off his game. Verbier was stage 15 of last year's Tour. We just completed Stage 8. Andy launched his attack with less than 800 meters to go, on a 2.1% grade. I don't think it tells you anything about who is stronger or weaker in the mountains. It's just too early.

That being said, I think Andy is already reading too much into what happened yesterday. He took it to mean that he is now the strongest climber. AC said going in that the Alps would not be decisive, that the winner of the stage might get a few seconds on the other contenders. That it would be a stage about fitness. Which is pretty much what happened.

Andy is about to find out what it feels like to be the focal point of EVERY GC candidate. And the absence of Frank is definitely going to be felt when the attacks start flying. Hopefully AC keeps his calm and doesn't try to mark EVERY attack like he did yesterday. He just has to hold Andy's wheel and let him do the work.

^This. I admit I was a bit disappointed when I saw it. But I believed Alberto in the spring when he said he wouldn't accelerate his training to win the Criterium du Dauphine, because it was too soon and he wouldn't be in top shape for week three of the Tour. Think Cadel & Vino in top form for the classics. Or RS said Jani was 100% fit for the Dauphine, & despite a disturbing tweet that he had added 40 watts after that, he'll be riding in the mountains like a guy who peaked in June.

I hope that Alberto hits his peak around Sunday, then puts on serious shows on two Tourmalet stages. Sanquer has said that champions need to be allowed a little creativity, so when Contador has "good sensations", I expect him to go.

My big questions right now are is Basso is building to another peak, and will Cadel be better or worse a week from now?

Tuesday will be fun. BMC will be expected to work at the front. A weakened Saxo will have to work hard for Andy. And Astana won't need to be the ones doing the hard work at the front unless Cadel or Andy are in trouble. They can sit back and wait for Col de la Madeleine. It's gonna be a great Tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think people are getting a bit over the top as firstly it was the 1st mountain stage and secondly it was a 10 second gain. WOW!

 

[md2020]

It seemed to me as though AC was covering moves at the finish that he didn't need to. Didn't he chase down Gesink and Kreuziger before AS made his move? He should just let guys like that go.

 

[Publicus]

It seemed to me as though AC was covering moves at the finish that he didn't need to. Didn't he chase down Gesink and Kreuziger before AS made his move? He should just let guys like that go.

He did. And you are correct. He admitted he should have let them go today at his press conference. Live and learn.

 

[oncehadhair]

I was amazed that contador could not keep up with andy schleck. it might be because contador has not hit top form yet. and he also said that he is better on the long time trials

Sure looks like Schleck is stronger. Long way to go.

 

[Thee_chisa]

he needs 3 mins going into that final TT, that is a lot, he needs to drop contador on each of the remaining mountain finishes, by a long way. i don't think he can do that.

 

[oncehadhair]

I think people are getting a bit over the top as firstly it was the 1st mountain stage and secondly it was a 10 second gain. WOW!

The point was made. Schleck went and Contador couldn't follow. Schleck was testing. Next time Schleck will be confident to make a move further down the climb. The 10 seconds is irrelevant.