Is Andy Schleck capable of beating Alberto Contador after such a strong showing

[dlwssonic]

I was amazed that contador could not keep up with andy schleck. it might be because contador has not hit top form yet. and he also said that he is better on the long time trials

 

[happychappy]

He's gonna need more than a few seconds since Contador will make him look silly in the TT.

 

[dlwssonic]

yup it would be great to see who is stronger in the pyrenees

 

[ManInFull]

I was amazed that contador could not keep up with andy schleck. it might be because contador has not hit top form yet. and he also said that he is better on the long time trials

Since AC never tried to attack at the end of yesterday's stage, I felt that something was up. He was cooked! Undoubtedly, Andy will now give it a go earlier at the end of an upcoming stage. Let's see how AC responds. I think Andy needs over 2:30 on AC before heading into the TT.

 

[dlwssonic]

Since AC never tried to attack at the end of yesterday's stage, I felt that something was up. He was cooked! Undoubtedly, Andy will now give it a go earlier at the end of an upcoming stage. Let's see how AC responds. I think Andy needs over 2:30 on AC before heading into the TT.

Ya i thought AC would easily counter AS attack. AS time trialing would be much worse if it starts to rain

 

[pedaling squares]

We'll have to wait and see how things look when the mountains are bigger and their slopes steeper. There are stages to come that suit Contador very well. He might not need a TT to put time into Andy Shleck. How nice is it to have a wide open GT after week 1? It's no longer the Bore de France.

 

[dlwssonic]

We'll have to wait and see how things look when the mountains are bigger and their slopes steeper. There are stages to come that suit Contador very well. He might not need a TT to put time into Andy Shleck. How nice is it to have a wide open GT after week 1? It's no longer the Bore de France.

Ya this is more exciting then last years tour when it was all contador.

 

[vcampbell]

Ya this is more exciting then last years tour when it was all contador.

Still it can be all Contador.

 

[dlwssonic]

Still it can be all Contador.

Im counting on schleck that it would not be one

 

[Publicus]

I think a lot of what this is what I call the Verbier-effect. If Contador doesn't crush his competition like on Verbier, that means he is off his game. Verbier was stage 15 of last year's Tour. We just completed Stage 8. Andy launched his attack with less than 800 meters to go, on a 2.1% grade. I don't think it tells you anything about who is stronger or weaker in the mountains. It's just too early.

That being said, I think Andy is already reading too much into what happened yesterday. He took it to mean that he is now the strongest climber. AC said going in that the Alps would not be decisive, that the winner of the stage might get a few seconds on the other contenders. That it would be a stage about fitness. Which is pretty much what happened.

Andy is about to find out what it feels like to be the focal point of EVERY GC candidate. And the absence of Frank is definitely going to be felt when the attacks start flying. Hopefully AC keeps his calm and doesn't try to mark EVERY attack like he did yesterday. He just has to hold Andy's wheel and let him do the work.

 

[Sophistic]

As others have already posted: too early to tell
but we have to remind us that with the exception of his dominant performance in 09, Contador won all of his other GTs by a relative small margin/was at the brink of defeat, so an Andy Schleck or even Cadel Evans in top shape could well beat him. If he doesn't have the shape to dominate in the mountains, then he is also not in the shape for a Cancellara type TT like last year and AS lost just 1:45 to an Über-Contador back then. Considering how strong he looked yesterday, his poor prologue was probably just a result of the bad weather + nagging injuries. Well at the current betting odds of 1,66 for Contador and 2,75 for Schleck i would rather bet on AS.

 

[Lady Luck]

I think a lot of what this is what I call the Verbier-effect. If Contador doesn't crush his competition like on Verbier, that means he is off his game. Verbier was stage 15 of last year's Tour. We just completed Stage 8.

But you forget his first attack last year took place on stage 7, when he made a surprise attack and gained an easy 20 seconds in only about 1km.

I agree that the margin and ease of victory last year has put pressure on him. Everybody said he was "holding back" and could have attacked even more often if it wasn't for the bad man.

Well the bad man is not in the GC race anymore and wasn't on his team to begin with, so the pressure is on AC to show us just what a super star he is without any bad people cramping his style.

He's still probably the best over all and the likely winner, but he hasn't impressed in the prologue or in the first couple of mountain stages compared to last year.

 

[BikeCentric]

I don't see it happening. The fact remains that Andy is not a very good TT'er. And while he certainly had a nice win yesterday, I don't see how a very short all-out effort in the last couple hundred meters makes him the dominant climber in the race. We won't find out who that is untill the Pyrenees. I think the real story yesterday was Evans, hanging with AC and AS all the way to the finish. But again, we need to hit some steeper slopes before we find out who has the best climbing legs.

 

[Angliru]

I think a lot of what this is what I call the Verbier-effect. If Contador doesn't crush his competition like on Verbier, that means he is off his game. Verbier was stage 15 of last year's Tour. We just completed Stage 8. Andy launched his attack with less than 800 meters to go, on a 2.1% grade. I don't think it tells you anything about who is stronger or weaker in the mountains. It's just too early.

That being said, I think Andy is already reading too much into what happened yesterday. He took it to mean that he is now the strongest climber. AC said going in that the Alps would not be decisive, that the winner of the stage might get a few seconds on the other contenders. That it would be a stage about fitness. Which is pretty much what happened.

Andy is about to find out what it feels like to be the focal point of EVERY GC candidate. And the absence of Frank is definitely going to be felt when the attacks start flying. Hopefully AC keeps his calm and doesn't try to mark EVERY attack like he did yesterday. He just has to hold Andy's wheel and let him do the work.

I think Andy is getting a bit ahead of himself. I recall last year he said the very same thing, that he was the best climber in the world. If he actually still believe that was the case why did he wait so long to attack? I think he's playing with fire by making these silly public statements. He's has potential of becoming the uphill version of a certain sprinter with HTC, except he has someone that actually might hand him his head. Also what makes him think that he was any stronger than Samuel Sanchez since only a cramp and a premature start to the sprint stopped Samu from taking the stage win.

 

[palmerq]

It is veyr possible for schleck to beat contador especially with only one time trial... It is still hard to tell though and it has only been one mountain stage. I get the impression from contador season so far he is not on the same form as last year(for whatever reason that could be) so I would not be so surprised if schleck beats him more in the coming mountains...

Back last year Contador attacked on the first(I think) mountaintop finish in andorra he only gained a wee bit of time but he attacked and left the others behind... this year it seems to be the opposite way around :S..


I would still say contador is the favourite though.

 

[Rb2112]

I think we will probably know AS & AC relative climbing strengths after this Friday at Mende and this Sunday at Ax-3. At Mende, after watching what happened to AC in the last km Morzine-what the heck will happen in the last 3 km @ 10%? Then on Sunday, Ax-3 (avg. 8.6%) right after Port de Pailheres, I think will blow up the leaders group. Heck, look what Morzine did to them. Either way by Ax-3 we'll know who the better climber is.

 

[Publicus]

It is veyr possible for schleck to beat contador especially with only one time trial... It is still hard to tell though and it has only been one mountain stage. I get the impression from contador season so far he is not on the same form as last year(for whatever reason that could be) so I would not be so surprised if schleck beats him more in the coming mountains...

Back last year Contador attacked on the first(I think) mountaintop finish in andorra he only gained a wee bit of time but he attacked and left the others behind... this year it seems to be the opposite way around :S..


I would still say contador is the favourite though.

I definitely think Andy can beat him. He has a decent cushion at the moment and all he has to do is wheel suck and then try and jump away at some point.

 

[Squares]

I'd say that all the talk about As vs AC is premature.

Neither on of them holds the Yellow Jersey and the guy holding it CAN Time Trial and hold his own in the mountains. Evans has finished 2nd twice so he is clearly no slouch. Evans finished with AC yesterday.

Another guy who finished with AC yesterday who can also time trial is Levi. He is behind AC now by almost a minute, but if AC is not on his climbing game who knows. He will gain time on AS in the last time trial.

Same goes for Menchov and Basso. What about Kreuzinger and Sastre?

In the end, there are a lot of people besides AS and AC who have a role in deciding the rest of the race. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few pacts form to keep AC from winning it all (plus AC doesn't have the Hog juice).

 

[flicker]

I'd say that all the talk about As vs AC is premature.

Neither on of them holds the Yellow Jersey and the guy holding it CAN Time Trial and hold his own in the mountains. Evans has finished 2nd twice so he is clearly no slouch. Evans finished with AC yesterday.

Another guy who finished with AC yesterday who can also time trial is Levi. He is behind AC now by almost a minute, but if AC is not on his climbing game who knows. He will gain time on AS in the last time trial.

Same goes for Menchov and Basso. What about Kreuzinger and Sastre?

In the end, there are a lot of people besides AS and AC who have a role in deciding the rest of the race. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few pacts form to keep AC from winning it all (plus AC doesn't have the Hog juice).

Awesome team work by Astana. Seems like not so good tactical riding by Contador. Personal tactics by Contador maybe not so good?

 

[DenisMenchov]

Yes Andy can probably beat him in the mountains, but can he win the Tour is the true question. This years Tour is much harder to win then last years was. 2009 was all astana battle between Lance and AC. Andy was too young, Roman also, basso wasn t there, evans, Sastre and Menchov out of form. Levi out with broken wrist(if my memory serves me right). 2010 is the one that all will remember.

 

[Squares]

basso wasn t there, evans, Sastre and Menchov out of form. Levi out with broken wrist(if my memory serves me right). 2010 is the one that all will remember.

Anyone know if this is "The" DenisMenchov posting here or if it is someone using his anme?

Yes, I think this year will be the one to remember!!!

 

[DenisMenchov]

Anyone know if this is "The" DenisMenchov posting here or if it is someone using his anme?

Yes, I think this year will be the one to remember!!!

Denis Menchov(cyclist) doesn t even speaks English very well.

 

[la.margna]

Considering that AC didn't feel good, Astana's tactics to Avioraz were great, let's face it. Nobody had the courage to attack until the last km as everybody was scared of AC power-attack that we have seen often.

As numerous times mentioned here, AS is a weak ITT rider. But I remember in 2008 when another Riis boy that was generally a weak ITT rider, showed an impressive ITT on the second last day and collected the Tour win by surprise. But AS will probably still need 2 if not 3 min on a 2009 AC for the ITT.

It is sad, that we have only about two (if we take Mende three) real mountaintop finishes left. Again rather an easy Tour edition (designed for a 40yr old?).

However, Gesink will need 4 to 5 min and we could see some fireworks from him in the mountains as well as from Kreuziger and van de Broek. VdB seemed to be in pretty good shape on the climb to Avoriaz, like Gesink.

If AC was suffering from the heat and had problems to breathe, and conditions remain so hot, we might be in for a surprise, although I would really be surprised.

Hopefully, tomorrow they will try to start the fireworks a bit earlier. I am fed up with these 2 to 3km mountainsprints...

 

[indurain666]

But you forget his first attack last year took place on stage 7, when he made a surprise attack and gained an easy 20 seconds in only about 1km.

IMHO, different courses and situations though. Last year he attacked on the Arcalis climb which has an average of slope of almost 8 % at the end of a 224 km where he was always protected by teammates (i.e. he was fresh and Astana slowed down the tempo quite a bit);yesterday's climb was quite tough at the beginning but then flattens a bit, he also spend some of time in the wind making sure Armstrong would never see the front and to bury his GC chances.

It is too early to call but I agree, I don't think AC is as strong in the climbs as last year but I also think AS is opening his mouth way too soon.

Should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow...

 

[Lady Luck]

IMHO, different courses and situations though. Last year he attacked on the Arcalis climb which has an average of slope of almost 8 % at the end of a 224 km where he was always protected by teammates (i.e. he was fresh and Astana slowed down the tempo quite a bit)...

If you mean Astana slowed down when he attacked, that was not the case. They were all on the limit and spitting blood.

At the time lots of people said if it wasn't for the team orders holding him back, AC could have gone earlier and gained a minute.