Is any rider able to challenge Contador in his peak form at the 2015 Tour De France?

[LaFlorecita]

You are assuming that a career arc is not parabolic. We are just making different assumptions and viewing the data differently. He might rack up another ~40 Cq/day season next year even if the data don't predict it. The numbers represent a small sample set, so there will be a lot of variability. Personally, his parabola might be more flat than the data indicate because 2013 was also likely an outlier as I stated to Netserk.

His career arc is of course parabolic. But I don't think he started his decline in 2012. I think it has not started yet. That is why I believe 2013 is the outlier and not 2014.

 

[pigoonse]

my 2 cents: 2013 was an aberration. 2014 saw a return to his champion form level and confidence. 2015 will be closer to 2014 than to 2013.

I wouldn't underestimate him yet

 

[Red Rick]

Actually that fits my observation even better. It is a flatter parabola with a broader peak between 09 and 11 with a decline as he hits his later years. 2014 still stands as the clear outlier. Graph it out.

You know, it's probably possible to fit in a n grade polynoma to fit your theory, but it doesn't make it true. In 2009, 2010 and 2011 he didn't race after the Tour, in 2012 he didn'r race untill Eneco and last year he was crap. This year he crashes out the Tour and he's still gonna get his highest score ever. Last year was definitely the outlier

 

[Electress]

Regression isn't correlation; r2 is only a measure of goodness of fit of the curve. It does not imply any relationship between variables or determine the degree to which any relationship is significant. You need to do some correlation. I’m guessing, but the number of data points is so few that it'd be hard to achieve a statistically significant correlation, which means any curve is basically just a line. Especially since 2012 is not comparing like with like and so should be removed.

I don't think you can really predict from the data alone about his potential future form. The only thing you can say is he was pretty consistent prior to 2013, 2013 was crap, and he's improved.

 

[Red Rick]

Also, if you're using the points/race day stat, cut out his points and race day's during the Tour, cause he didn't finish the race, see how it looks then

 

[LaFlorecita]

Also, if you're using the points/race day stat, cut out his points and race day's during the Tour, cause he didn't finish the race, see how it looks then

46

 

[sponsor]

Form is just one part

As we saw this year, form is just part of it. Staying off the ground, not getting sick, teamwork and mechanics another.

So yes - he can be challenged.

 

[djpbaltimore]

You know, it's probably possible to fit in a n grade polynoma to fit your theory, but it doesn't make it true. In 2009, 2010 and 2011 he didn't race after the Tour, in 2012 he didn'r race untill Eneco and last year he was crap. This year he crashes out the Tour and he's still gonna get his highest score ever. Last year was definitely the outlier

An additional problem is trying to fit a curve when all the data for his career is not there yet. The CQ/day was really a more fair way to present the data, so credit to LaFlorecita for crunching those numbers. I was completely surprised to see that 2014 was his 4th best year by that metric.

The best part was that my tweet was favorited by someone who was clearly a Contador fan, so it all depends on how you look at the data. I am a scientist by trade, despite what my twitter tag says, so I am trained to look for patterns in data that signify trends.

 

[LaFlorecita]

An additional problem is trying to fit a curve when all the data for his career is not there yet. The CQ/day was really a more fair way to present the data, so credit to LaFlorecita for crunching those numbers. I was completely surprised to see that 2014 was his 4th best year by that metric.

The best part was that my tweet was favorited by someone who was clearly a Contador fan, so it all depends on how you look at the data. I am a scientist by trade, despite what my twitter tag says, so I am trained to look for patterns in data that signify trends.

Look at my post, 46 points/day without TDF

And the points/day stat can be found here http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_stats.asp?riderid=387



And that Contador fan that favorited your tweet favorites every tweet related to Contador. I know this from experience

 

[ILovecycling]

An additional problem is trying to fit a curve when all the data for his career is not there yet. The CQ/day was really a more fair way to present the data, so credit to LaFlorecita for crunching those numbers. I was completely surprised to see that 2014 was his 4th best year by that metric.

The best part was that my tweet was favorited by someone who was clearly a Contador fan, so it all depends on how you look at the data. I am a scientist by trade, despite what my twitter tag says, so I am trained to look for patterns in data that signify trends.

ohh man,good luck with that. you clearly missed the point.its a parabole ,but he rode only 3 months in 2008 and he was undertrained utter **** in 2013. without those year,its a line ,not your freakin parabola

 

[djpbaltimore]

Regression isn't correlation; r2 is only a measure of goodness of fit of the curve. It does not imply any relationship between variables or determine the degree to which any relationship is significant. You need to do some correlation. I’m guessing, but the number of data points is so few that it'd be hard to achieve a statistically significant correlation, which means any curve is basically just a line. Especially since 2012 is not comparing like with like and so should be removed.

I don't think you can really predict from the data alone about his potential future form. The only thing you can say is he was pretty consistent prior to 2013, 2013 was crap, and he's improved.

Small sample size is a huge problem. When the season is an 'n' of 1 there is really no way to make an exact prediction. You could probably safely specify a range, assuming no bad luck, but there are so many variables that the natural aging parabola is outweighed by other factors. It is like an election when a normally Red state goes Democrat for some extraneous reason. The data predicts one outcome based on past history, but misses the randomness of single events.

 

[djpbaltimore]

ohh man,good luck with that. you clearly missed the point.its a parabole ,but he rode only 3 months in 2008 and he was undertrained utter **** in 2013. without those year,its a line ,not your freakin parabola

I don't even understand your argument after your baseless personal attack. Stay classy, friend.

Cheers,
Dr. Daniel Prantner PhD

 

[Jspear]

I don't even understand your argument after your baseless personal attack. Stay classy, friend.

Cheers,
Dr. Daniel Prantner PhD

Yes, very classy....Flo and others are ding dongs, and you are a doctor...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Yes, very classy....Flo and others are ding dongs, and you are a doctor...

Did I not just credit LaFlo? Feel free to twist reality to what suits your agenda.

 

[Jspear]

Did I not just credit LaFlo? Feel free to twist reality to what suits your agenda.

I don't have an agenda. I interpreted you inserting your name there as a cheap shot....was I wrong?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes, very classy....Flo and others are ding dongs, and you are a doctor...

I am a lot but not a doctor

 

[LaFlorecita]

Did I not just credit LaFlo? Feel free to twist reality to what suits your agenda.

I don't have an agenda. I interpreted you inserting your name there as a cheap shot....was I wrong?

Hey hey let's keep it friendly

 

[Jspear]

I am a lot but not a doctor

Ya. I just get irked sometimes when people puff themselves up. He had already said he was a doctor. But, he had to also sign his next post with his full name. Whatever....just a form...I'm over it.

 

[Jspear]

Hey hey let's keep it friendly

Agreed......

 

[djpbaltimore]

I don't have an agenda. I interpreted you inserting your name there as a cheap shot....was I wrong?

Why would that be a cheap shot? It seemed like the poster was questioning the veracity of my claim. So I gave him my credentials. I can argue with people like Netserk and LaFlo because I respect their opinions even if we don't agree. Suggesting that I am implying that either of those two are dingdongs is totally off-base. Especially in light of the tone of our exchanges today. Please post anything remotely derogatory I have said about any poster.

 

[escheator]

Throwing out a trolling accusation is poor sauce.

Here is the graph. To me it looks like a parabola. YMMV

https://twitter.com/DanielPrantner/status/512677770980118528/photo/1

So, this is how the forum looks like almost off-season people do all kinds of crazy stuff like data science

From such small dataset you can make it be whatever you like.

Anyway, if you're fitting some model to this, show confidence bounds to see how funny it all is.

 

[Ryaguas]

I don't even understand your argument after your baseless personal attack. Stay classy, friend.

Cheers,
Dr. Daniel Prantner PhD

Totally unnecessary man but anyway... in internet anyone can be anything etc etc.

What we can get from this year is that Alberto found his mojo again and is ready to take the tour next year. He still have a lot of class and I'm pretty sure that He can take other PN and Tirreno, maybe a FW other Giro and maybe 2 more Vueltas.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't even understand your argument after your baseless personal attack. Stay classy, friend.

Cheers,
Dr. Daniel Prantner PhD

Does that argument work in your professional field?

Anyone should know this doesn't even come close to exact science, so telling people you've got a PhD doesn't mean anything, regardless of you good you are in your professional field.

 

[SeriousSam]

I thought I'd do a proper analysis where you fit a form curve based on a data set of riders in terms of age and years competed at pro tour level but I don't think CQ/days raced per year is an informative enough measure of what we are all interested in - predicting TdF form - to warrant the effort.

Now, if we had consistent power data... that would be much more interesting.

 

[Electress]

Small sample size is a huge problem. When the season is an 'n' of 1 there is really no way to make an exact prediction. You could probably safely specify a range, assuming no bad luck, but there are so many variables that the natural aging parabola is outweighed by other factors. It is like an election when a normally Red state goes Democrat for some extraneous reason. The data predicts one outcome based on past history, but misses the randomness of single events.

Then we basically agree (Saddo that I am, I actually did a quick and dirty back of a *** packet correlation - absolutely no significance. Might as well use the breakfast cereal he ate that morning as a predictor. Waaaaaay too small a sample to derive any kind of model out of that.)

Roll on Lombardia before I'm resorting to peering over excel spreadsheets of power data to get my AC fix.. LOL!

PSSST - Anyone know where I might be able to get a life…?

(Wow, this forum automatically removes the word 'f ag'…as in 'cigarette'. Just wow)