Jayco al-'Ula and its GreenEdge predecessors

[tobydawq]

Of course, but it turns out that you actually can pluralize names...

http://grammar.ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/plurals.htm

"When a family name (a proper noun) is pluralized, we almost always simply add an "s." So we go to visit the Smiths, the Kennedys, the Grays, etc. When a family name ends in s, x, ch, sh, or z, however, we form the plural by added -es, as in the Marches, the Joneses, the Maddoxes, the Bushes, the Rodriguezes. Do not form a family name plural by using an apostrophe; that device is reserved for creating possessive forms."

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

I expect Kreuziger having best shape of all year at the Tour, great shape. At least like last year or better. That's race he knows how to prepare for.

And, yes, that would be very nice indeed. But it will count for very little if he has failed to "gell" with the other personalities in the team .... and especially the designated GC men.

You could say that about anyone. Why are you mentioning that? I don't see people usually mentioning that blending well with the rest of the team is advantage.

For the plain and simple reason that team chemistry is very often the difference between a team success or eventual undoing. Kreuziger DID ride well in the Ardennes but as yet, the only major race he's ridden with a GC man was Pais Vasco with SY.

With most others on the team, we have clear evidence of how Rider X has performed when riding with/for Rider Y; as yet we don't know if Kreuziger will gell with either of the Yates or Chaves or the team in general.

Only Pais Vasco? And what about Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Romandie? Are those not major races? So far hi sacrificed himself in all this races plus one day races quite exemplary. Maybe that's why I find your comment strange.

I said that he rode well in the Ardennes. Perhaps I overlooked Romandie where he was certainly servicable but in all honesty he was overshadowed by Howson & Haig. As for T-A, I seem to recall he had to pull out with illness. I will also grant that on reflection, he has lined up alongside SY a few times with the overall result reading positive.

I have NOT being trying to put a knock on the guy, far from it, but rather just indicating that its still early days for him at the team and far too early to really assess whether he'll be the big plus that some are assuming he'll be OR a big money misfit ...... or something in between.

I expect Kreuziger having best shape of all year at the Tour, great shape. At least like last year or better. That's race he knows how to prepare for.

2013 Tour form would be a bonus !

That would be great. On top of that Contador is no longer his teammate and in Orica they are much more flexible regarding who can ride his own race or so. At least I would like to see Kreuziger given chance to fight for a stage win.

Not sure he'll be given the freedom to ride his own race unless Chaves is a non-starter. Your 2nd scenario .... could be plausible if he's riding well

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

For the plain and simple reason that team chemistry is very often the difference between a team success or eventual undoing. Kreuziger DID ride well in the Ardennes but as yet, the only major race he's ridden with a GC man was Pais Vasco with SY.

With most others on the team, we have clear evidence of how Rider X has performed when riding with/for Rider Y; as yet we don't know if Kreuziger will gell with either of the Yates or Chaves or the team in general.

Only Pais Vasco? And what about Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Romandie? Are those not major races? So far hi sacrificed himself in all this races plus one day races quite exemplary. Maybe that's why I find your comment strange.[/quote]

I said that he rode well in the Ardennes. Perhaps I overlooked Romandie where he was certainly servicable but in all honesty he was overshadowed by Howson & Haig. As for T-A, I seem to recall he had to pull out with illness. I will also grant that on reflection, he has lined up alongside SY a few times with the overall result reading positive.

I have NOT being trying to put a knock on the guy, far from it, but rather just indicating that its still early days for him at the team and far too early to really assess whether he'll be the big plus that some are assuming he'll be OR a big money misfit ...... or something in between.

Not sure he'll be given the freedom to ride his own race unless Chaves is a non-starter. Your 2nd scenario .... could be plausible if he's riding well[/quote]
Tirreno - Adriatico is a stage race and he DNS 6th stage, so it is not like he wasn't there at all. Regarding Romandie - what are we talking about? I thought we are talking about blending with the team, so how was he overshadowed by Haig and Howson? I don't get it. Anyway you've made one race of three races and that is just not right.

Regarding Tour, you've really nailed it regarding Tour. Yep, if Chaves is in the race AND is ok, healthy or better, certainly Chaves is be da man. See? Anyway it is reasonable to have more options.

Why are we talking about putting knock on Kreuziger?

 

[dirkprovin]

I made the comment re "putting a knock on Kreuziger" due to the highly defensive tone of your comments which gave me the impression that you thought I was knocking him. I was NOT, just making an observation that, as yet, we don't really know if Kreuziger and Orica will be a combination that "clicks" or one where things don't quite work out. So far we have some mildly promising signs but nothing overly tangible.

I chose to basically overlook T-A for the reason that it was somewhat of a false start for the team for whilst there was a promising early showing from AY; the team ended up being decimated first by a crash then illness .... therefore very little concrete evidence to be garnered from it.

Hope you now understand where I'm coming from; I'm not being critical of Kreuziger, am just taking a more cautious line than some who seem to be assuming he's going to be such a major asset.

As I said previously, Romandie WAS an oversight on my part and it should've been seen as a success both on individual terms for SY and for the team. Fair comment that we could take that Kreuziger played a real part in that; however it could also be argued that he was overshadowed by 2 riders of lesser stature than he in Howson (finished 11th) & Haig (22nd).

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

I made the comment re "putting a knock on Kreuziger" due to the highly defensive tone of your comments which gave me the impression that you thought I was knocking him. I was NOT, just making an observation that, as yet, we don't really know if Kreuziger and Orica will be a combination that "clicks" or one where things don't quite work out. So far we have some mildly promising signs but nothing overly tangible.

I chose to basically overlook T-A for the reason that it was somewhat of a false start for the team for whilst there was a promising early showing from AY; the team ended up being decimated first by a crash then illness .... therefore very little concrete evidence to be garnered from it.

Hope you now understand where I'm coming from; I'm not being critical of Kreuziger, am just taking a more cautious line than some who seem to be assuming he's going to be such a major asset.

As I said previously, Romandie WAS an oversight on my part and it should've been seen as a success both on individual terms for SY and for the team. Fair comment that we could take that Kreuziger played a real part in that; however it could also be argued that he was overshadowed by 2 riders of lesser stature than he in Howson (finished 11th) & Haig (22nd).

Regarding GC he was overshadowed by Haig and Howson, yes. But we were not talking GC that's I was pointing at. As a dom I dare to say Kreuziger overshadowed them and that's what we talked about, I might be wrong though.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I made the comment re "putting a knock on Kreuziger" due to the highly defensive tone of your comments which gave me the impression that you thought I was knocking him. I was NOT, just making an observation that, as yet, we don't really know if Kreuziger and Orica will be a combination that "clicks" or one where things don't quite work out. So far we have some mildly promising signs but nothing overly tangible.

I chose to basically overlook T-A for the reason that it was somewhat of a false start for the team for whilst there was a promising early showing from AY; the team ended up being decimated first by a crash then illness .... therefore very little concrete evidence to be garnered from it.

Hope you now understand where I'm coming from; I'm not being critical of Kreuziger, am just taking a more cautious line than some who seem to be assuming he's going to be such a major asset.



As I said previously, Romandie WAS an oversight on my part and it should've been seen as a success both on individual terms for SY and for the team. Fair comment that we could take that Kreuziger played a real part in that; however it could also be argued that he was overshadowed by 2 riders of lesser stature than he in Howson (finished 11th) & Haig (22nd).

Regarding GC he was overshadowed by Haig and Howson, yes. But we were not talking GC that's I was pointing at. As a dom I dare to say Kreuziger overshadowed them and that's what we talked about, I might be wrong though.

Hit the nail on the head - In the stage races Kreuziger ridden he's been at the side of Adam and Simon every step of the stage.

 

[Galic Ho]

Re:

I expect Kreuziger having best shape of all year at the Tour, great shape. At least like last year or better. That's race he knows how to prepare for.

He is very solid.

This will all come down to Chaves form.

If he is on fire, then the team should back him.

If not, he should ride to get form FOR the Vuelta.

Naturally, the roles of the Yates' and Kreuziger will vary accordingly.

Roman is more than capable of getting into breaks and winning stages. He is also not riding for an unstable team run by a megalomaniac and in need of a new contract for next season. Expect him to be reasonably secure and consistent.

Which is precisely why Orica acquired his services. He's consistent.

 

[Galic Ho]

Re: Re:

Think we're on the same page re White; I think he does possess some qualities that are valuable to the development of the team but I'm increasingly less "sold" on his capacities as a race DS. The tactical brains behind Orica's successful 'set pieces' at last years Vuelta was Stephens who appears to have the closest connection amongst the team hierarchy with Chaves.

Who is the DS for the Tour? If it's Stephens, that bodes very well for the team, rather than just being 'well or good enough' with White behind the reins.

Fair point re what/whom Chaves will be up against at this year's Tour. Froome - goes without saying, Quintana - agree that he should be stronger at the Tour, Bardet - agree he's certainly a podium contender, Valverde - tick, Contador - I will admit to a sly liking for old Bertie the Bounder but whilst he cannot be underestimated, I'm thinking he might be hard pressed to make the podium; Porte - sorry but no sale, a great super dom but hasn't the brains/makes panic mistakes under pressure & his TT is uneven and frankly over-rated.

Agreed about Porte's time trial formerly being very soild. It's lagged in recent years. From my very brief observation, based on the Romandie ITT, Porte has his form back. The proof, is how that translates on the road relative to his GC rivals in the Tour. I'm thinking he might actually have it at a very strong level this year. I'd agree it was on par with his rivals last year excusing Froome of course. That's fine, but should Richie manage to do a top 5-10 chrono ,based on times relative to the opposition on the day, and that is only 30 seconds to a minute behind Froome maximum, we've got a serious race on our hands.

Why? Porte looked to be similar to Froome climbing last year. Maybe a little behind...Ventoux he looked far stronger. The stage Bardet won, in heavy rain, he fell off. Take that and the silly flat tyre on stage 2 away, Richie is a very dangerous rider. I can see him making the podium, maybe winning if Froome is pushed hard.

Fully agree that UK Postal's "Modus Opperandi" is "all in" for the Tour whereas they can vary between haphazard to a rabble at the other 2 GTs. I think that having all 3 GC men finish top 6 last year DID essentially lock Orica into giving each a chance to lead at one GT; tricky to manage and its an open question as to whether Chaves' knee problems have simplified or complicated the issue. DO I think Orica made a mistake by altering what worked last year for Chaves by bringing out to race early season in AUS .... yes, I do, wonderful PR but not sure it was worth it. The only positive is that they've made the mistake in the first year of his new contract so hopefully they won't screw it up in future !!

Only Chaves and Orica know the extent of the knee injury. Froome was stating, politely BTW, that Geraint Thomas Giro injury and abandon plays out well for the TEAM at the Tour. It makes them stronger because he gets more recovery time to prepare to help Chris.

That's my point in comparing objectives. Sure, it looks good for a rider, if he finished a top 10 in a GT. It looks better for the team however, if they win a GT and have the guys who did really well, work for their BEST rider. Orica may do that at the Tour.

What I am suggesting is they emulate as close as possible, Sky's order. That means having a designated leader. He is the numero uno. Based on last season, that has to be Chaves.

Don't see AY backing up for the Tour seeing how he was running on empty at the end of the Giro. Quite agree with the scenario you plotted for Orica at the Tour. It would not surprise to see them allow one or two of the puncheurs/rouleurs to have a freelance at some finishes with a stage win being a pleasant bonus. Sending either Kreuziger or Howson up the road for a set-piece would not surprise. Much will depend on whether UK Postal will see them as a particular danger to themselves or actually be happy to see some of their prime competition fighting amongst themselves ?

I think those set pieces would work at the Vuelta. At the Tour, it's nice to imagine...but very hard to dislodge and disrupt the Sky boys. Would have been better at the Giro, but I'd argue waiting for the Vuelta and then expending all your ammunition on trying to win that, would be better.

As I said earlier, I think Vuelta probably is their best shot and, especially given Chaves' interrupted season, this is what I'd have him peaking for. Realistically he's not going to be quite there at the start of the Tour so swing the main thrust towards SY for that one and whatever Chaves can produce later in the Tour will be a pleasant bonus.

Agreed. Doesn't mean they cannot stage hunt or fight for things at the Tour...we'll see what they do. Chaves and any GC rider cannot afford to have an 'off' first week. Nobody loses time in the Tour these days and can then gain minutes back like Nibali did in the 2016 Giro. That won't work for the win or podium. A GC attempt has to have very little margin of error. Porte's tyre on stage 2 last year cost him second overall.

You make the statement that many teams would like to have the climbing talent that Orica possesses and that seems a fair point. The issue is actually getting that potential to gell into successful units. We know that Chaves has amazing rapport with many who've raced with him and Howson looks to be developing into an excellent super-dom for the mountains who could in future maybe place highly at one weekers in his own right. Plaza is a veteran but was very valuable at this recent Giro. Haig has looked a very promising climbing talent. Kreuziger's CV speaks for itself but as yet, its unclear whether he can/will gell with either Chaves or either Yates. Verona --- jury still out.

I am of the opinion that if Kreuziger doesn't comply, you make him.

He was ripped apart on this forum by many last year, for just leaving Contador behind. Granted Alberto had crashed, but when he struggled in the first week after his crash, Roman was caught looking back at him, leaving him (it was caught on photo) and then claiming he didn't see Contador dropped. Naturally this was ridiculed and laughed at as an obvious fallacy and intentional lie to preserve some credibility.

Orica, need the polar opposite from Kreuziger this year. The same can be said of the Yateses. Aru had his entire team stay beside him last year when he cracked. Orica have to ride the same way, simply to build rapport and belief in their squad. Irrespective of how they go, that's what needs to occur. A strong DS can encourage this. Chaves appears to have that support with some of the riders already. Time to build it up and go for the win...in the Vuelta, unless he finds some super level form at the Tour.

What I DO hope they have learned from this Giro is that they CANNOT support both a GC campaign plus a bunch sprinter who requires real support. A classics type quick man (ala Matthews) is certainly still a viable selection as they require less support and do offer support utility to the GC in return. FWIW, what probably was the sealer for Matthews leaving was his desire to pursue the green jersey rather than just stage wins; the latter was still viable with Orica whereas the former meant a dilution of resources. My one worry is that I'm not sure that its yet registered with Mr White that Ewan is becoming an increasingly poor fit.

Caleb won a Giro stage. They will probably support him more. I've got no problem with that. Except sending a Yates brother to the same race as a GC rider is not wise. You can't do both.

Michael Matthews win the green jersey? Against Peter Sagan!!

That's very amusing. Very, very amusing. He's good, but let's not forget, to simply beat Peter last year, he need 2 team mates in a breakaway group, totaling 3 out of the 7 riders, which included Greg van Avermaet. Good win, but Sagan came second and did 50% of the work in the break. Then he backed up again in another break away the following stage.

Bling is a good rider. He's not Peter Sagan. Sagan is far too versatile and strong to even warrant such a go.

Plus Sunweb have Barguil for GC at the Tour. A Frenchman versus an Aussie. We'll see though. My thoughts are that Peter has that jersey as long as he wants it.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

I expect Kreuziger having best shape of all year at the Tour, great shape. At least like last year or better. That's race he knows how to prepare for.

He is very solid.

This will all come down to Chaves form.

If he is on fire, then the team should back him.

If not, he should ride to get form FOR the Vuelta.

Naturally, the roles of the Yates' and Kreuziger will vary accordingly.

Roman is more than capable of getting into breaks and winning stages. He is also not riding for an unstable team run by a megalomaniac and in need of a new contract for next season. Expect him to be reasonably secure and consistent.

Which is precisely why Orica acquired his services. He's consistent.

Agree fully re Chaves' Tour, I suspect it will be the case that he ends up riding to get miles/form for the Vuelta .... and if he's up for some late Tour stage hunting, then go for it.

Kreuziger is signed for both 2017 & 2018

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Who is the DS for the Tour? If it's Stephens, that bodes very well for the team, rather than just being 'well or good enough' with White behind the reins.

We're on precisely the same page !

Agreed about Porte's time trial formerly being very soild. It's lagged in recent years. From my very brief observation, based on the Romandie ITT, Porte has his form back. The proof, is how that translates on the road relative to his GC rivals in the Tour. I'm thinking he might actually have it at a very strong level this year. I'd agree it was on par with his rivals last year excusing Froome of course. That's fine, but should Richie manage to do a top 5-10 chrono ,based on times relative to the opposition on the day, and that is only 30 seconds to a minute behind Froome maximum, we've got a serious race on our hands.

Why? Porte looked to be similar to Froome climbing last year. Maybe a little behind...Ventoux he looked far stronger. The stage Bardet won, in heavy rain, he fell off. Take that and the silly flat tyre on stage 2 away, Richie is a very dangerous rider. I can see him making the podium, maybe winning if Froome is pushed hard.

Sorry but I'm just not sold on Richie being a major GC threat. A superb mountain super dom; unquestionably but whilst he climbs well; I'm just not sold that he won't have that off day (and when he has off days they're right off).

As for his TT, in AUS at least we have been sold the story of Richie the super TTer but his TT record just doesn't read that way. Yes, he has won a national TT crown and in AUS, that's no pushover but my issue is that he's far too inconsistent to be considered elite. Rather he is someone who, on his day, TT's very very well especially on a rolling or hilly course; on a pancake flat course he's far less a factor. Nor does he always bring his A TT game when the pressure is on.

Finally, I just don't think he's the sharpest tool in the shed and under pressure he's liable to panic

Only Chaves and Orica know the extent of the knee injury. Froome was stating, politely BTW, that Geraint Thomas Giro injury and abandon plays out well for the TEAM at the Tour. It makes them stronger because he gets more recovery time to prepare to help Chris.

That's my point in comparing objectives. Sure, it looks good for a rider, if he finished a top 10 in a GT. It looks better for the team however, if they win a GT and have the guys who did really well, work for their BEST rider. Orica may do that at the Tour.

What I am suggesting is they emulate as close as possible, Sky's order. That means having a designated leader. He is the numero uno. Based on last season, that has to be Chaves.

In principle, I agree completely. The problem for Orica is that Chaves' injury has, by necessity, forced them to look at option B's. I think with AY at Giro, it was always going to be a further examination of how he handles going in as the GC man and potentially where he stands in relation to other "2nd tier" GC men

Totally agree that Chaves IS the man at Orica who has demonstrably been able to galvanise a team around him, as yet its unclear with either Yates

I think those set pieces would work at the Vuelta. At the Tour, it's nice to imagine...but very hard to dislodge and disrupt the Sky boys. Would have been better at the Giro, but I'd argue waiting for the Vuelta and then expending all your ammunition on trying to win that, would be better.

Agree. Postal will only allow it IF, in their eyes, its not going to endanger their position ..... but may cause headaches for their major competitors

Agreed. Doesn't mean they cannot stage hunt or fight for things at the Tour...we'll see what they do. Chaves and any GC rider cannot afford to have an 'off' first week. Nobody loses time in the Tour these days and can then gain minutes back like Nibali did in the 2016 Giro. That won't work for the win or podium. A GC attempt has to have very little margin of error. Porte's tyre on stage 2 last year cost him second overall.


Tend to think Dauphine will teach us much re Chaves situation, tend to think it will be SY as GC man; Chaves to ride for race miles ... with potential for late Tour fireworks; and otherwise allow whichever puncheurs/rouleurs to have a crack at selective finishes or Kreuziger in a break. As with AY at the Giro, I suspect the Tour will be revelatory with regards to how SY handles GC responsibilities at GT level

I am of the opinion that if Kreuziger doesn't comply, you make him.

He was ripped apart on this forum by many last year, for just leaving Contador behind. Granted Alberto had crashed, but when he struggled in the first week after his crash, Roman was caught looking back at him, leaving him (it was caught on photo) and then claiming he didn't see Contador dropped. Naturally this was ridiculed and laughed at as an obvious fallacy and intentional lie to preserve some credibility.

Orica, need the polar opposite from Kreuziger this year. The same can be said of the Yateses. Aru had his entire team stay beside him last year when he cracked. Orica have to ride the same way, simply to build rapport and belief in their squad. Irrespective of how they go, that's what needs to occur. A strong DS can encourage this. Chaves appears to have that support with some of the riders already. Time to build it up and go for the win...in the Vuelta, unless he finds some super level form at the Tour.

Nothing that I can really disagree with. I'm not willing to prejudge Kreuziger either way. Chaves clearly has that bonding with guys he's rode multiple GTs with its likely that there will be a few on the Tour squad with whom he's raced very infrequently. Also a question of whether either Yates can build this level of trust/understanding.

Caleb won a Giro stage. They will probably support him more. I've got no problem with that. Except sending a Yates brother to the same race as a GC rider is not wise. You can't do both.

Michael Matthews win the green jersey? Against Peter Sagan!!

That's very amusing. Very, very amusing. He's good, but let's not forget, to simply beat Peter last year, he need 2 team mates in a breakaway group, totaling 3 out of the 7 riders, which included Greg van Avermaet. Good win, but Sagan came second and did 50% of the work in the break. Then he backed up again in another break away the following stage.

Bling is a good rider. He's not Peter Sagan. Sagan is far too versatile and strong to even warrant such a go.

Plus Sunweb have Barguil for GC at the Tour. A Frenchman versus an Aussie. We'll see though. My thoughts are that Peter has that jersey as long as he wants it.

I honestly agree with you that Matthews is probably fighting a losing battle trying to wrest the green jersey away from Sagan.

My point with Matthews is that he IS the brand of sprinter that Orica COULD very comfortably accomodate in a GT line-up along with a GC campaign. He can finish tough GTs; has utility to be useful when called upon to work; a major asset if there is a TTT; can be competitive over a wide range of terrain and he doesn't need the extensive support of a pure bunch sprinter. Likewise, young Cort looks to be along somewhat similar lines although probably more cobbles oriented than Ardennes ... maybe Edmondson as well

Ewan, on the other hand, is none of the above !! He won a stage at the Giro ...... whoopdee bloody doo ..... that's after batting 1 from 8 (in baseball parlance). You also need to look at how much labour was expended with men on the front during those stages. In essence, he requires a full lead-out train in order to be consistently competitive with the big boys at GT level ..... and Orica is no longer in the position or business of being able to deliver that. He needs to find a team that can/will

 

[dirkprovin]

Team for Dauphine: Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, Jack Haig, Damien Howson, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Roman Kreuziger, and Simon Yates.

Add Durbridge and you may well have the Tour line-up. I thought that Haig would be for the Vuelta but he has ridden exceptionally well this year (following on from an excellent neo-pro season) and I'm not really seeing either Plaza or Verona backing up after Giro. Leaving Chaves & SY with just Howson & Kreuziger may be cutting it a bit thin although Impey's 2016 Tour performance was nigh akin to that of a mountain dom.

Otherwise, its a team of strong riders who can be useful at minimum over a wide variety of terrain and the likes of Keukeleire, Impey & Gerrans can be green-lighted to have a run at some reduced sprints without needing to divert major resources.

Bewley IS Chaves' designated "minder" and we would think he would then be in the Tour line-up. He may well be but that call may actually be held off until they see how Chaves is faring at Dauphine. If he's looking OK, then Bewley will be in; if Chaves is really looking rusty and will therefore be riding Tour primarily for race miles then they may well hold Bewley back for the Vuelta where Chaves will hopefully be back firing.

Who goes out if Bewley is in ? Durbridge is the most obvious "like for like" but I suspect Durbridge will be there regardless. In that case, it may be Keukeleire who has in any case been a Vuelta man the past 2 seasons or Gerrans unless they choose to go one outright climber down and hold Haig back for Vuelta.

 

[yaco]

Interesting to see Orica work hrd in stage 1 to bring back the break - Probably should have assisted from 60 or 70 kms to achieve success - At least Orica tries to give most of their riders a chance to win a stage or race during the season - Imagine they will try to set up Gerrans or Impey for a sprint type stage.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Team for Dauphine: Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, Jack Haig, Damien Howson, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Roman Kreuziger, and Simon Yates.

Add Durbridge and you may well have the Tour line-up. I thought that Haig would be for the Vuelta but he has ridden exceptionally well this year (following on from an excellent neo-pro season) and I'm not really seeing either Plaza or Verona backing up after Giro. Leaving Chaves & SY with just Howson & Kreuziger may be cutting it a bit thin although Impey's 2016 Tour performance was nigh akin to that of a mountain dom.

Otherwise, its a team of strong riders who can be useful at minimum over a wide variety of terrain and the likes of Keukeleire, Impey & Gerrans can be green-lighted to have a run at some reduced sprints without needing to divert major resources.

Bewley IS Chaves' designated "minder" and we would think he would then be in the Tour line-up. He may well be but that call may actually be held off until they see how Chaves is faring at Dauphine. If he's looking OK, then Bewley will be in; if Chaves is really looking rusty and will therefore be riding Tour primarily for race miles then they may well hold Bewley back for the Vuelta where Chaves will hopefully be back firing.

Who goes out if Bewley is in ? Durbridge is the most obvious "like for like" but I suspect Durbridge will be there regardless. In that case, it may be Keukeleire who has in any case been a Vuelta man the past 2 seasons or Gerrans unless they choose to go one outright climber down and hold Haig back for Vuelta.

Durbridge is slightly stronger on rolling stages than Keukeleire, who is a far better sprinter. Durbridge has also had some very good form at Aus nationals and the classics. He looked decent at that Hammer series as well, but I guess the races were too short to give a real indication.

Either will do a very good job, but for a GC team Durbridge is a slightly better option.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Team for Dauphine: Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, Jack Haig, Damien Howson, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Roman Kreuziger, and Simon Yates.

Add Durbridge and you may well have the Tour line-up. I thought that Haig would be for the Vuelta but he has ridden exceptionally well this year (following on from an excellent neo-pro season) and I'm not really seeing either Plaza or Verona backing up after Giro. Leaving Chaves & SY with just Howson & Kreuziger may be cutting it a bit thin although Impey's 2016 Tour performance was nigh akin to that of a mountain dom.

Otherwise, its a team of strong riders who can be useful at minimum over a wide variety of terrain and the likes of Keukeleire, Impey & Gerrans can be green-lighted to have a run at some reduced sprints without needing to divert major resources.

Bewley IS Chaves' designated "minder" and we would think he would then be in the Tour line-up. He may well be but that call may actually be held off until they see how Chaves is faring at Dauphine. If he's looking OK, then Bewley will be in; if Chaves is really looking rusty and will therefore be riding Tour primarily for race miles then they may well hold Bewley back for the Vuelta where Chaves will hopefully be back firing.

Who goes out if Bewley is in ? Durbridge is the most obvious "like for like" but I suspect Durbridge will be there regardless. In that case, it may be Keukeleire who has in any case been a Vuelta man the past 2 seasons or Gerrans unless they choose to go one outright climber down and hold Haig back for Vuelta.

Durbridge is slightly stronger on rolling stages than Keukeleire, who is a far better sprinter. Durbridge has also had some very good form at Aus nationals and the classics. He looked decent at that Hammer series as well, but I guess the races were too short to give a real indication.

Either will do a very good job, but for a GC team Durbridge is a slightly better option.

Hhmm; we'll know a lot more post Dauphine as to what the Tour strategy may be with regards to Chaves' prospects and approach .... and this may, in turn, influence final selections.

As for Durbridge v Keukeleire; completely agree that they are both top class riders who would do an excellent job. I'd slightly differ with you with regards to their characteristics.

Durbo has it hands down with regards to flat-land grunt; I would certainly favour him as the numero uno P-R option post Hayman. However, his hill method is that of grinding away which can leave him gapped on hills by those more explosive. Keukeleire is better able to respond to such moves and as such I'd rate him the better prospect for RVV. Ergo, I think he has the edge going uphill. He most certainly has the sprinting ability that Durbo lacks.

Given fitness and good health, both men should deliver value to the team at whichever GT they are sent to .... I think we're on the same page re that.

 

[dirkprovin]

Solid bloc of performances in Dauphine ITT.

Impey has always been a solid TTer, and given he's just back racing after injury, all the more creditable.

Yates was never going to match the real top line TTers amongst the GC men but 19th on the stage and only really leaking major time to Porte & Valverde has him bordering on the top 10 with more than reasonable hopes that he can move significantly higher should his climbing legs be sound.

Howson has probably let his TT take a back seat over the past few years with his reassignment as a key climbing domestique but a very solid ride on/around top 20.

Haig has generally been seen as primarily a climber but his 25th today follows on from a similar showing at Romandie. Perhaps some signs that there may be some GC potential a few years down the line but also a point in his favour for future GT selection where there's a TTT. Whilst Orica may no longer set out to win these stages, they will still be looking NOT to haemorrage significant time gaps and thus not carry passengers

Kreuziger clearly did extend himself but given his role for this race, there was clearly no call to do so.

Keukeleire has never been known as a TTer but quite surprising to see him as high as 40th and within 2 min of Porte. Clearly has some good form going

Gerrans is actually capable of a very presentable prologue when he actually wants to but normally goes through the motions once the distance increases. 50th & only 2 min down on Porte is probably significantly more than what would normally be the case

Chaves' lack of time on the bike was always going to be shown up most in the TT where he clearly could not have been able to spend the time that would normally have been the case. Not great but nothing particularly disastrous. Being 2.41 down may allow him a little license to have a dash off the front if his legs are good in the mountains.

 

[yaco]

Team for tour of Suisse is

Durbridge
Albasini
Cort
Power
Edmondson
Hayman
Plaza
Verona

Orica will try to sneak a stage win in a reduced spring or in the prologue - Interesting to see how long Power can stay in the mountains.

Emergency Alert - Mitch Docker - One GT since 2014 an unfinished Vuelta in 2015 - No Giro or TDF in 2017 - Can't get a ride in either Romandie or Suisse.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Team for tour of Suisse is

Durbridge
Albasini
Cort
Power
Edmondson
Hayman
Plaza
Verona

Orica will try to sneak a stage win in a reduced spring or in the prologue - Interesting to see how long Power can stay in the mountains.

Emergency Alert - Mitch Docker - One GT since 2014 an unfinished Vuelta in 2015 - No Giro or TDF in 2017 - Can't get a ride in either Romandie or Suisse.

Fair summation of the likely prospects; Durbridge or Cort realistically the main stage hopes although it is Switzerland ..... and we know what that does to Albasini LOL. Given this is probably Cort's first race back, he may be a little "short of a gallop" in horse racing terms. Barring news that he's already signed elsewhere for next year, he'll be the quick guy for the Vuelta ala 2016

Can only see Durbridge and Albasini being in Tour selection calculations. Others are backing up after Giro so expecting very little when it starts going seriously uphill unless Plaza has still got some shape. The nearest we've seen to anything so far from Power have been top 20s at La Rioja & Indurain then Tour of Norway. Am not really expecting anything from him and there's no way known I'd have him anywhere near a ride at the Vuelta !

Could be right re Docker, raced ok over the cobbles but think he's looking very much on the outer and being left for the B races.

 

[greenedge]

Edmondson could challenge in the prologue, he's ridden superbly all year.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Edmondson could challenge in the prologue, he's ridden superbly all year.

Plausible scenario but remember he's just coming off the Giro and whilst he didn't finish, 2 weeks is a lot longer than he's ever raced before. Wasn't exactly prominent at Hammer and most probably is still feeling after effects of Giro. If he DOES ride a good prologue then that's a great bonus but am not exactly expecting it.

 

[yaco]

Albasini always performs well in the Prologue,while Durbridge needs it longer - Keukeliere riding the Tour of Slovenie - Rule him out of the TDF.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Albasini always performs well in the Prologue,while Durbridge needs it longer - Keukeliere riding the Tour of Slovenie - Rule him out of the TDF.

Hhmm, probably shorter than optimal for Durbridge but still far from out of the question for him to be thereabouts. Agree re Albasini, but then again (despite never being a major TTer), he always seems to be in the top 1/3 of the field in any TT at major races.

That would seem to indicate Keukeleire to Vuelta which has been his usual schedule for the past 2 years; think his presence at recent altitude camp had some thinking Tour may've been on the cards.

How does this leave Tour team predictions ? Barring accidents/illness over intervening period, we should be able to pencil in SY, Chaves, Impey, Howson as dead certs.
Durbridge probably at 90% cert then most likely Bewley.
Last 3 is where its staring to get a little tricky. I'd take one out of Albasini & Gerrans but not sure I'd take both ... would send one of them (prob Gerrans) to the Vuelta. It may well be that they DO send both but its at the expense of their Vuelta campaign which will probably be the better paying chance
Ideally you might like another climber but Plaza & Verona have just done the Giro so they're more in need of battery recharge. Haig comes to mind but we hear he's riding Slovenia which steers towards Vuelta. Power ... just aint anywhere near ready.
Hayman does enter calculations and may well get a ticket but just not sure he actually adds anything that other seasoned hands with better survivability could do so.

Beyond that, you either asking for Giro back-ups or taking a fast guy without specialist support .... which I see them doing at Vuelta with Cort but not at the Tour

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Albasini always performs well in the Prologue,while Durbridge needs it longer - Keukeliere riding the Tour of Slovenie - Rule him out of the TDF.

Hhmm, probably shorter than optimal for Durbridge but still far from out of the question for him to be thereabouts. Agree re Albasini, but then again (despite never being a major TTer), he always seems to be in the top 1/3 of the field in any TT at major races.

That would seem to indicate Keukeleire to Vuelta which has been his usual schedule for the past 2 years; think his presence at recent altitude camp had some thinking Tour may've been on the cards.

How does this leave Tour team predictions ? Barring accidents/illness over intervening period, we should be able to pencil in SY, Chaves, Impey, Howson as dead certs.
Durbridge probably at 90% cert then most likely Bewley.
Last 3 is where its staring to get a little tricky. I'd take one out of Albasini & Gerrans but not sure I'd take both ... would send one of them (prob Gerrans) to the Vuelta. It may well be that they DO send both but its at the expense of their Vuelta campaign which will probably be the better paying chance
Ideally you might like another climber but Plaza & Verona have just done the Giro so they're more in need of battery recharge. Haig comes to mind but we hear he's riding Slovenia which steers towards Vuelta. Power ... just aint anywhere near ready.
Hayman does enter calculations and may well get a ticket but just not sure he actually adds anything that other seasoned hands with better survivability could do so.

Beyond that, you either asking for Giro back-ups or taking a fast guy without specialist support .... which I see them doing at Vuelta with Cort but not at the Tour

You left out Kreuziger...

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Verona & Plaza would be certain to do their home GT

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

Albasini always performs well in the Prologue,while Durbridge needs it longer - Keukeliere riding the Tour of Slovenie - Rule him out of the TDF.

Hhmm, probably shorter than optimal for Durbridge but still far from out of the question for him to be thereabouts. Agree re Albasini, but then again (despite never being a major TTer), he always seems to be in the top 1/3 of the field in any TT at major races.

That would seem to indicate Keukeleire to Vuelta which has been his usual schedule for the past 2 years; think his presence at recent altitude camp had some thinking Tour may've been on the cards.

How does this leave Tour team predictions ? Barring accidents/illness over intervening period, we should be able to pencil in SY, Chaves, Impey, Howson as dead certs.
Durbridge probably at 90% cert then most likely Bewley.
Last 3 is where its staring to get a little tricky. I'd take one out of Albasini & Gerrans but not sure I'd take both ... would send one of them (prob Gerrans) to the Vuelta. It may well be that they DO send both but its at the expense of their Vuelta campaign which will probably be the better paying chance
Ideally you might like another climber but Plaza & Verona have just done the Giro so they're more in need of battery recharge. Haig comes to mind but we hear he's riding Slovenia which steers towards Vuelta. Power ... just aint anywhere near ready.
Hayman does enter calculations and may well get a ticket but just not sure he actually adds anything that other seasoned hands with better survivability could do so.

Beyond that, you either asking for Giro back-ups or taking a fast guy without specialist support .... which I see them doing at Vuelta with Cort but not at the Tour

You left out Kreuziger...

Damned right I did !! Knew someone was missing ...... I blame these heavy duty pain killers I'm stuck taking atm :redface:

 

[yaco]

Chaves will be cherry ripe for the Vuelta - S.Yates very disappointing but he's the type of rider who could turn it on in the next two stages - Kreuziger seemed to lots of pacing for Yates when he was struggling on the climb - A solid ride by Haig who is keeping something back for the Tour of Slovenie.