Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Peyroteo94]

It is actually very much true. Plenty of people bet on their favourite rider (or the one they've heard of) and that lowers the odds for the said rider.

Of course, there's an unwritten rule "never bet on a favourite team/rider but people don't follow it and they bet on their favourites.

It's very rare to see odds misjudged. At least when we talk about favorites (top5). Most of the time, they are pretty accurate even if they change with significant people betting on a specific rider. You don't see Remco with lower odds than Vingegaard despite being more popular (people who bet large amount of money, don't bet only with his heart).

 

[Berniece]

It's very rare to see odds misjudged. At least when we talk about favorites (top5). Most of the time, they are pretty accurate even if they change with significant people betting on a specific rider. You don't see Remco with lower odds than Vingegaard despite being more popular (people who bet large amount of money, don't bet only with his heart).

Odds are influenced by favoritsm and irrationality.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105905602300059X

 

[Pogacsa]

Odds reflect what money is being bet! It is not a prediction by the bookies, it is strategy so the bookies make money long term. Odds are driven by punters

 

[theyoungest]

Humiliation? What a poor choice of words for someone who thought he was dying 2.5 months before TDF

Of course there's a reason for it, this was far from the best Vingegaard ever. But the fact remains that he wasn't anywhere close to Pogacar. He hasn't been for quite a while now. Let's first see on the road if he's anything like his usual self again. I haven't seen it, so far. Plugge tends to get ahead of himself a little, and it doesn't benefit anyone, including (and especially) Vingegaard.

 

[theyoungest]

That's not true. Emotional side doesn't matter for odds. Numbers don't have soul.
I think Pogacar has very low odds but this is due to Vingegaard's poor spring season. The true is Pogacar did an incredible season and Vingegaard his worst season until now. I also think Vingegaard will give us an incredible battle and to be honest, I think Vingegaard has 45% of winning this Tour. I would put Pogacar with 50%, 3% to Remco, 1% to Almeida and 1% to other riders.

This is just not true. It's not an objective measure, it depends on the market where most betters come from, it depends on their cycling knowledge, it depends on favouritism, it depends on a lot of things that aren't related to actual performances. If my neighbour would bet on the Tour he'd bet on Pogacar, because that's the only guy she knows. Take a hundred people like that and the odds for Pogacar become lower.

45% chance of Vingegaard winning the Tour is incredibly high, btw. Talk about emotional! That's just irrational, there's no indication at all that he has almost a 50/50 chance of winning.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is just not true. It's not an objective measure, it depends on the market where most betters come from, it depends on their cycling knowledge, it depends on favouritism, it depends on a lot of things that aren't related to actual performances. If my neighbour would bet on the Tour he'd bet on Pogacar, because that's the only guy she knows. Take a hundred people like that and the odds for Pogacar become lower.

45% chance of Vingegaard winning the Tour is incredibly high, btw. Talk about emotional! That's just irrational, there's no indication at all that he has almost a 50/50 chance of winning.

Those percentages are my opinion. Not what it should be. Bookies has Pogacar with 1.50. Very low IMHO.

 

[hayneplane]

Those percentages are my opinion. Not what it should be. Bookies has Pogacar with 1.50. Very low IMHO.

Bookies odds are far too short for a 3 week rave with the opportunity to crash out, get sick or simply facing an all time elite rider in Vingegaard who, if healthy, can push him to the fullest.

 

[Berniece]

Of course there's a reason for it, this was far from the best Vingegaard ever. But the fact remains that he wasn't anywhere close to Pogacar. He hasn't been for quite a while now.

That's true, but I wouldn't say someone humiliated another person when they aren't in their best shape. I can also completely destroy someone in a sprint against someone on crutches, but I wouldn't say I humiliated them. I would probably be humiliating myself.

 

[Rou]

That's true, but I wouldn't say someone humiliated another person when they aren't in their best shape. I can also completely destroy someone in a sprint against someone on crutches, but I wouldn't say I humiliated them. I would probably be humiliating myself.

Very true. Too bad that Visma were the ones mocking Pogacar in 2023 when he exploded. Were they humiliating themselves?

 

[theyoungest]

Very true. Too bad that Visma were the ones mocking Pogacar in 2023 when he exploded. Were they humiliating themselves?

Visma have never ever mocked Pogacar. If anything they've shown him too much deference. The only time you could say they did was when Dumoulin commented after the infamous Belles Filles time trial that Pogacar "sits on his bike like a miner"... and even that was actually a compliment, because he was amazed that Pogi could still go so fast.

 

[Rou]

Visma have never ever mocked Pogacar.

I can't believe that somebody can make that statement. I won't bother to give you examples.

 

[theyoungest]

I can't believe that somebody can make that statement. I won't bother to give you examples.

You're welcome to, because I'm pretty sure there aren't any. Maybe something was lost in translation, but they've been nothing but extremely deferential to Pogi.

 

[Berniece]

Very true. Too bad that Visma were the ones mocking Pogacar in 2023 when he exploded. Were they humiliating themselves?

So? That’s whataboutism

 

[Oldman]

And we go live to the Pog and Vingo fanboy camps, a month before the Tour...

Naw....that's two Italians from the same team fighting each other. You know, like in the Giro.

 

[Extinction]

Naw....that's two Italians from the same team fighting each other. You know, like in the Giro.

Actually it was Banesto against Carrera. Maybe they were both Italians, I don't remember.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Cycling is a team sport, for Jonas more than Pogi (who more or less can handle himself), I would say more than anyone else...

And looking at present state of affairs at Visma, strong forces leaving the team, injuries galore, and now most recently downright critics from the Giro team's GC guy about the team tactics, Plugge's monopolistic ruling, etc..

A month before it gets loose I regard this as some of the very worst conditions for Jonas, regardless of whether he has rocket legs installed or a 100% concussion recovery for the cobbles stage.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Actually it was Banesto against Carrera. Maybe they were both Italians, I don't remember.

Arrieta Gonzales (Spain, Banesto) and Leonardo Sierra (Venezuela, Carrera Jeans) were the two gents getting a bit irritated.
Vuelta 1995.

 

[Oldman]

Arrieta Gonzales (Spain, Banesto) and Leonardo Sierra (Venezuela, Carrera Jeans) were the two gents getting a bit irritated.
Vuelta 1995.

They actually looked serious. Word to wannabe combatants in our ranks: take off your shoes, first. They make good weapons and then you don't look like a worse version of that fight. Also, plan to leave the sport and maybe spend some money.

 

[AmRacer]

Wout is back.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Certainly feel better about his chances than worse after this Giro

 

[AupaPyama]

But as a GC contender: do you want two guys in your team that went full gas 4 weeks earlier? And Van Aert already raced spring races.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

But as a GC contender: do you want two guys in your team that went full gas 4 weeks earlier? And Van Aert already raced.. spring races.

yes you definitely do , because of who the guys are

 

[Tim Cahill]

They don't have anyone else appropriate of Van Aert or Yates' quality even if they are tired, Zingle/Cian are out and Matthew/Hagenes are too young

 

[Berniece]

But as a GC contender: do you want two guys in your team that went full gas 4 weeks earlier? And Van Aert already raced spring races.

Why not? Pogacar won Giro+TDF

 

[Rou]

Wout is building his form and will be even stronger in the Tour. We saw in last year's Tour he was average and was stronger in the Vuelta.