Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Netserk]

I'm not only talking about the past week or so of this Vuelta. And the context that Visma has had way more underperformers than overperformers for the second season running, while having most of their riders deliberately doing light schedules, is also a red flag.

They have always had light racing schedules. Both this and last year were more obviously affected by illness and crashes.

Jorgenson was great last year, and he had the exact same schedule up to the Tour. He had a saddle sore in the pre-Dauphiné training camp and got ill during the Tour this year. In the spring, he was super strong.

 

[theyoungest]

For Jonas and his stans my concern is the one ive maintaned throughout all year, and thats; relative to for instance Almeida and some riders he has lost a edge he normally cleared easily and mainly that trajectory which concern me.

Vingegaard is about to (probably) win a GT without even being in really good shape... you can call that a worrying sign, or you can call it class.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Very lucky with a shortened ITT today. Not a real victory if he wins and woudl therefore sit on 2,5 GTs

 

[Netserk]

Kuss doing only the Vuelta and sucking last year is pretty funny after he won it doing all 3. This year he's back to his normal schedule, and basically back to his normal level.

And I think the cause for that was upstream of his schedule.

 

[YavorD]

Vingegaard is about to (probably) win a GT without even being in really good shape... you can call that a worrying sign, or you can call it class.

We can call it worrying sign if we are looking long tern with him as a potential opponent for Pogacar.
We can call it class if we compare him to the "normal" guys.
Perception matters.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

They have always had light racing schedules. Both this and last year were more obviously affected by illness and crashes.

Yes, and they aren't adjusting the schedules accordingly. Even with crashes, you still need to get in a certain number of racing kilometres to hit your best level. Vingegaard not racing anything between Paris-Nice and Dauphiné after scrapping Catalunya was madness, and he's not the only one who has IMO done too few races after returning from injury.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Very lucky with a shortened ITT today. Not a real victory if he wins and woudl therefore sit on 2,5 GTs

To be fair he would have won the 2023 Vuelta had the team management allowed him to, so those two will cancel each other out assuming he hangs on on Saturday.

 

[theyoungest]

Very lucky with a shortened ITT today. Not a real victory if he wins and woudl therefore sit on 2,5 GTs

Canceled or half-canceled stages happen quite often, but somehow if it happens to Vingegaard his win doesn't count? I don't know if the gap would have been bigger with a longer TT btw, if you look at the Tour over a longer distance Vingegaard was actually closer to Almeida.

 

[theyoungest]

We can call it worrying sign if we are looking long tern with him as a potential opponent for Pogacar.
We can call it class if we compare him to the "normal" guys.
Perception matters.

If this was the best he's ever going to be, that would be worrying. But clearly it's not, since he was significantly better in the Tour. Let's remember his main and only rival didn't even want to ride the Vuelta because he was too tired.

 

[Sciatic]

Kuss doing only the Vuelta and sucking last year is pretty funny after he won it doing all 3. This year he's back to his normal schedule, and basically back to his normal level.

Except it seems he has even less explosiveness than he had before. That was never a strong suit, it these weeks it seems has to drop for a bit when there are accelerations at the front. Of course, there have not been many of those!

 

[Netserk]

Yes, and they aren't adjusting the schedules accordingly. Even with crashes, you still need to get in a certain number of racing kilometres to hit your best level. Vingegaard not racing anything between Paris-Nice and Dauphiné after scrapping Catalunya was madness, and he's not the only one who has IMO done too few races after returning from injury.

I think riders need a strong base and a trouble-free final prep phase.

I don't think riding six days in Romandie instead of training and then postponing the altitude camp would have helped one bit.

So I think his training schedule has mattered far more than his racing schedule. Also for this Vuelta, where he only trained in Denmark two years ago. He came in to the race less strong back then, but was fresher in the end. That said, illness still makes it very hard to make a strong case for that, and it may entirely be due to the specifics of his illness.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I think riders need a strong base and a trouble-free final prep phase.

I don't think riding six days in Romandie instead of training and then postponing the altitude camp would have helped one bit.

So I think his training schedule has mattered far more than his racing schedule. Also for this Vuelta, where he only trained in Denmark two years ago. He came in to the race less strong back then, but was fresher in the end. That said, illness still makes it very hard to make a strong case for that, and it may entirely be due to the specifics of his illness.

There were other options than Romandie. Itzulia had he been recovered in time, and if not, then the Besançon/Jura/Doubs block, perhaps with Flèche on top of that.

 

[Psycat]

His days of, realistically, challening Pog seems to be over. I wonder if Visma and himself also sees it that way and if so what they plan for next season.

 

[Oldman]

40s on the Bola is a lot when he has not gapped you at any point in the previous 3 weeks.

It's obvious at this point it will be up to the Bora duo to create a straddle on Stage 20 that'll force the top 2 to work. Only way they have a shot. UAE's team hasn't shown up much recently and Almeida will need to be an opportunist; it'll take Hindley getting a couple of minutes on Pidcock (or Pellizzari) to get jumpy action. If the Giro is any indication UAE would have Almeida sit until Jonas is forced to respond which isn't a given.
A long move at Puerto Navacerrada at 115km would have to be fierce enough to draw everyone out. The finish, at 2,250 meters will reveal who is the most fatigued. Throw in any wind at gaps could get interesting.

 

[hayneplane]

Yes, Almeida would have to be considerably stronger than Vingegaard to win the race.

UAE would need to set a searing pace at the foot to try and shell out Tulett/Kuss/Jorgensen early so they are too far behind to help pace Jonas if he was to drop.

Biggest problem there is that such pacing is the last thing Almeida usually responds well to.

 

[SHAD0W93]

UAE would need to set a searing pace at the foot to try and shell out Tulett/Kuss/Jorgensen early so they are too far behind to help pace Jonas if he was to drop.

Biggest problem there is that such pacing is the last thing Almeida usually responds well to.

Only one way to find out what happens and a hard stage will distance Pidcock most likely leaving second unthreatened.

 

[lenric]

a cynic would say his best days might be behind him.

 

[Psycat]

a cynic would say his best days might be behind him.

A realist would aswell.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Very lucky with a shortened ITT today. Not a real victory if he wins and woudl therefore sit on 2,5 GTs

Glad to see you're making outrageous claims everywhere. not just in the remco thread

 

[theyoungest]

A realist would aswell.

Not a realist, as you don't know his level relative to where he was two years ago. Obviously this Vuelta he's not at his best, but that's not a benchmark for anything.

It's interesting how this guy is about to win (!) a grand tour and all the reactions are about how he's worse than ever Talk about realism.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not a realist, as you don't know his level relative to where he was two years ago. Obviously this Vuelta he's not at his best, but that's not a benchmark for anything.

It's interesting how this guy is about to win (!) a grand tour and all the reactions are about how he's worse than ever Talk about realism.

Vingegaard was miles above the rest (except Pogacar) not a long time ago while he's not now. Obviously Vuelta being his second consecutive GT (after a hard Tour) is likely a factor here. He wasn't that strong in 2023 Vuelta either.

 

[Netserk]

Vingegaard was miles above the rest (except Pogacar) not a long time ago while he's not now. Obviously Vuelta being his second consecutive GT (after a hard Tour) is likely a factor here. He wasn't that strong in 2023 Vuelta either.

He was pretty good in the first week before he got ill.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He was pretty good in the first week before he got ill.

Wasn't he also ill in the first part of 2023 Vuelta? I would say a hard-fought Tour against Pogacar can be a factor in those cases making him more prone to ilnesses. There's a reason why Pogacar doesn't want to do Vuelta after the Tour against Vingo either.

 

[theyoungest]

Vingegaard was miles above the rest (except Pogacar) not a long time ago while he's not now. Obviously Vuelta being his second consecutive GT (after a hard Tour) is likely a factor here. He wasn't that strong in 2023 Vuelta either.

I think he was stronger in the 2023 Vuelta, and personally if they let them race for it I think he would have won. I'm not saying I'm impressed with him in this Vuelta, of course not, but he clearly can do better than this and he'll still probably win the race, so I don't know why people conclude his career is basically over. He's just tired after a demanding battle with Pogi.

 

[Netserk]

Wasn't he also ill in the first part of 2023 Vuelta? I would say a hard-fought Tour against Pogacar can be a factor in those cases making him more prone to ilnesses. There's a reason why Pogacar doesn't want to do Vuelta after the Tour against Vingo either.

I think it was a brief bit of gastro in 23 and maybe covid this year.