Jonathan Tiernan-Locke written to by UCI, asked to explain blood values

[DirtyWorks]

Also - four additional ABP tests in the following five months (Oct thru Feb). How normal is that for a new athlete added to the programme?

The nature of Bayesian analysis requires a number of samples. Those samples are compared not only to future individual samples, but to samples from other athletes as a way to validate the new samples.

IMO, it's a practical and very effective way to find irregular values in a large pool of data.

Did he get more/less tests than the average new athlete in the WT? I don't know.

 

[fmk_RoI]

If he was using EPO at the time his body would have been producing new blood cells, it wasn't. Not saying he was not using EPO earlier, he probably was, but at the time of the test he likely had already stopped.

At the time of the test, UKAD reckon he'd finished 10-14 days, so stopped 8-12/9. Elsewhere in the decision it's said that he was doping from end August. What's that then, a few days micro-dosing with EPO, and then a blood bag (or is it the other way round?)?

(Coincidentally, from 22/8 thru 2/9 he was with Endura doing altitude training in Catalunya - so if he's started his course from the end of August ... he was doing it right under their nose. So much for Brian Smith's 'common sense' test.)

 

[fmk_RoI]

The nature of Bayesian analysis requires a number of samples. Those samples are compared not only to future individual samples, but to samples from other athletes as a way to validate the new samples.

This we all know. But we also all know that there is considerable difference of opinion on how many tests the experts think are required.

Did he get more/less tests than the average new athlete in the WT? I don't know.

Regrettably, that was the actual question.

 

[Race Radio]

What's that then, a few days micro-dosing with EPO, and then a blood bag (or is it the other way round?)?

Usually the rider would take a blood bag then keep Retic high with a micro does of EPO. It appears JTL might have forgot the EPO

 

[fmk_RoI]

an athlete has to back off the EPO prior to an event for fear of tripping the easy urine test.

But there was no EPO urine testing at the ToB. Which may or may not have been known.

 

[fmk_RoI]

Usually the rider would take a blood bag then keep Retic high with a micro does of EPO. It appears JTL might have forgot the EPO

So hungover he forgot...

 

[SundayRider]

Must have been blood doping/using EPO the entire 2012 season.

 

[Merckx index]

Dr. Kingsley Hampton spoke in the rider’s defence and said that he estimated Tiernan-Locke had a total alcohol intake in the evening of 335 grams, over 33 units of alcohol.

Per wiki, a unit of alcohol is 10 ml in Britain, but that is 7.9 grams. I hope the link got it wrong, that he consumed 335 ml, not grams, of alcohol. That would be the equivalent of three and a half bottles of wine. He did say he drank most of two bottles of wine, just as starters. (To put this in perspective for you beer drinkers, that would be about 5.5 liters of typical American beer, about sixteen 12 oz cans.)

If he really did consume 335 grams of alcohol, that is about 425 ml, or nearly five bottles of wine.

I’m pretty sure that would be a lethal dose for me, but YMMV.

An obvious problem with the dehydration defense is that while it would increase HT/Hb, it would also increase retics. In fact, since the ratio is important, plasma volume is mostly irrelevant, unless it can be shown to have some more indirect effect on the relevant cells. I understand he had a theory about that, too, but it's easy to see how he was grasping at straws.

 

[Race Radio]

it's easy to see how he was grasping at straws.

Yeah, I doubt he did not drink water for 2+ days.....and when he did start drinking water his body would have held on to all of it. It takes a few days for the body to start releasing normally after it is dehydrated.

It is funny that JTL was telling folks he had a good explanation. The one he used is absurd.

 

[Race Radio]

FWIW, an athlete has to back off the EPO prior to an event for fear of tripping the easy urine test. My understanding is the effects of EPO appear days later anyway.

The effects do last a few days but it is fairly easy to not test positive if you do not take too much, too close to an event, shot into the vein.......and drink lots of water

 

[Catwhoorg]

The effects do last a few days but it is fairly easy to not test positive if you do not take too much, too close to an event, shot into the vein.......and drink lots of water

But what about wine, gin and vodka ?

 

[thehog]

Must have been blood doping/using EPO the entire 2012 season.

That doesn't sound very plausible.

 

[TailWindHome]

Good grief.

Do you understand what occurs during high training load, race schedules and altitude?

And some context. Prior to the ToB he was injured and out. I have no doubt he doped at the ToB & the Worlds. But he was doing so under Sky's testing.

Once he started on the regular Sky training program he complained of being unwell and overtired.

The take is Brailsford has no idea of the blood test prior to the Worlds. The plan would he to build his new profile the Kerrison way.

He's HCT is high. Super high. Hard to think he was self-bloosbags on 42k a year. No that's a stretch.

Nevertheless the lactate tests from Kerrison back in April would have told Sky if he wasn't the real deal. They still hired & had his two best races under Sky's training.

I'm sure he did.
Once the doping stopped the talent disappeared.

Maybe he was waiting to be put on the good stuff he read about in the Clinic

 

[thehog]

I'm sure he did.

Once the doping stopped the talent disappeared.

Maybe he was waiting to be put on the good stuff he read about in the Clinic

How did his talent disappear? You mean his results were not the same as the previous year.

Which would be completely normal for a rider stepping up from Continental to ProTour.

 

[TailWindHome]

How did his talent disappear? You mean his results were not the same as the previous year.

Which would be completely normal for a rider stepping up from Continental to ProTour.

He had already stepped up before he ever donned a Team Sky kit
19th - against the very best in the World. Doped.

Sticks on a black jersey and he's out the back.

Maybe he was still hung over

 

[thehog]

He had already stepped up before he ever donned a Team Sky kit
19th - against the very best in the World. Doped.

Sticks on a black jersey and he's out the back.

Maybe he was still hung over

Out the back of what? The Pro peloton, yes.

Prior to that he was riding Contential races. What did one expect? That he'd win LBL in his first year at ProTour level. Contador was out the back in his first year as well.

I agree his best performance by far was the Worlds. Under BC/Brailsford. Considering he training with Sky most of the year, I find most concerning. Basically he was doping with Sky/BC.

 

[TheSpud]

None of which where tested for EPO

Having read the report proof of doping, the defence case is ridiculous

Doping with EPO 13-14 days prior to the test, sorry to dissapoint Hog but while with Endura at TOB.

Wonder if he will confess all, who supplied him etc,

Wonder how much Brian Smith knows?

And prior to that had spent 11 days altitude training in Catalunya with ... Endura

(Section 24)

 

[TheSpud]

Out the back of what? The Pro peloton, yes.

Prior to that he was riding Contential races. What did one expect? That he'd win LBL in his first year at ProTour level. Contador was out the back in his first year as well.

I agree his best performance by far was the Worlds. Under BC/Brailsford. Considering he training with Sky most of the year, I find most concerning. Basically he was doping with Sky/BC.

Was that before or after Contador started doping do you think?

 

[Netserk]

Was that before or after Contador started doping do you think?

After. I think he doped since his junior days.

 

[TheSpud]

Out the back of what? The Pro peloton, yes.

Prior to that he was riding Contential races. What did one expect? That he'd win LBL in his first year at ProTour level. Contador was out the back in his first year as well.

I agree his best performance by far was the Worlds. Under BC/Brailsford. Considering he training with Sky most of the year, I find most concerning. Basically he was doping with Sky/BC.

Did they dope him during his 33 unit bender then?

 

[thehog]

Was that before or after Contador started doping do you think?

Or any 1st year Pro. The expectation that JTL was off the boil does not align the fact he jumped two pay grades to ProTour. You cannot compare Paris-Nice to 2 day 125km x 2 stage race.

The expectation that he was going to win Amstel was completely stupid. That was never going to happen.

His best race by far was the Worlds. Better than any of his wins at 2.1, 2.2.

Its fairly simple correlation per his results. Similarly to a junior winning all of their races and stepping up to the next grade. They're just not going to be winning all of the senior races like they did in the juniors.

 

[thehog]

Did they dope him during his 33 unit bender then?

You tell me. But if you've just be told you're about to lead the BC worlds team with Froome/Wiggins working for you, what would you do?

I'd be sh** scared. Additionally if you've been shown a new way of training with supplements by the team you've just signed for then you'd be really f**** scared.

Think about it.

 

[TheSpud]

You tell me. But if you've just be told you're about to lead the BC worlds team with Froome/Wiggins working for you, what would you do?

I'd be sh** scared. Additionally if you've been shown a new way of training with supplements by the team you've just signed for then you'd be really f**** scared.

Think about it.

Not sure what you want me to be thinking about but maybe below is what ypu're after.

If i was a doper who had just won the ToB and was picked to be the leader, after just signing a massive contract, then probably i'd think that it would be good to boost up a bit. On the other hand maybe i wouldn't boost on the basis that testing would likely be stricter and anyway i could claim fatigue. Its easy to spin either way.

Now, if i was running a team that was doping (directly or via a pseudo country team that was looking after other pro teams riders) and i was about to sign / had just signed an up and coming star i would make damn sure he was on a tight leash and didn't do anything to screw his numbers.

Thats why a lot of this doesn't necessarily add up so easily. Sure JTL doped but other than that I cant say or conclude on who helped him.

 

[mrhender]

Not sure what you want me to be thinking about but maybe below is what ypu're after.

If i was a doper who had just won the ToB and was picked to be the leader, after just signing a massive contract, then probably i'd think that it would be good to boost up a bit. On the other hand maybe i wouldn't boost on the basis that testing would likely be stricter and anyway i could claim fatigue. Its easy to spin either way.

Now, if i was running a team that was doping (directly or via a pseudo country team that was looking after other pro teams riders) and i was about to sign / had just signed an up and coming star i would make damn sure he was on a tight leash and didn't do anything to screw his numbers.

Thats why a lot of this doesn't necessarily add up so easily. Sure JTL doped but other than that I cant say or conclude on who helped him.

Maybe there's a lot of indirect help provided...

A revealed team program would ruin everything... So how do you avoid this?

you make sure to only involve as a team directly when it comes to podium canditates or massive stage earners -maybe 1-3 gyus in the theam... At the same time you indirectly help the others via internal testing and letting them help eachother as to "who to call for help".. This way you do not have a team program but control the parts that end up on your desk eventually... Simple

 

[thehog]

Not sure what you want me to be thinking about but maybe below is what ypu're after.

If i was a doper who had just won the ToB and was picked to be the leader, after just signing a massive contract, then probably i'd think that it would be good to boost up a bit. On the other hand maybe i wouldn't boost on the basis that testing would likely be stricter and anyway i could claim fatigue. Its easy to spin either way.

Thats why a lot of this doesn't necessarily add up so easily. Sure JTL doped but other than that I cant say or conclude on who helped him.

JTL was a rider who was training with Sky since April that year. He’d undertaken lactate testing, was using a Sky powermeter to send them data and had signed a letter of intent since that time.

Brailsford had him earmarked for the worlds team long before the race. My feeling was the blood draw at the Worlds by the UCI was unexpected. My feeling because JTL was not within the passport program at the time he felt he was fine.

No wonder Brialsford kept calling this a “Endura problem”, which clearly it is not.