I also still see Roglic as the favourite. However, I would really like Ayuso to have a good Giro. I think a top level performance here might increase the chance of him leaving for another team before his contract is up. There are a couple of teams that could afford it, I think, and it would be great to spread the best GC contenders a little more widely. Almeida's contract is up at the end of next year though (I think), so maybe he is more likely to be the first to go?I still see Roglic as the favorite, although I don't think today's performance is as strategic as some people think. Roglic put his team to work to win and couldn't.
But Ayuso has always been very good in finishes like this; his doubts are in other mountains.
That doesn't clear up my doubts.
I could be wrong because Ayuso is progressing and Roglic has already passed his prime. But until I see confirmation, Roglic is more reliable for Finestre and other stages than Ayuso.
In fact, I don't rule out seeing Del Toro like Froome with Wiggins. I think Del Toro's progress this year is enormous.
Sunday could be the first day Del Toro has to be restrained by UAEs car, like Froome in that Tour and Vingegaard in the 2022 Dauphine. Del Toro is much better on gravel than Ayuso, who has already struggled on the gravel stage of the Tour. Del Toro has often been flying on that asphalt at Strade Bianche.
If Roglic can take anything positive from today, it's that many are already making Ayuso the favorite for a 4 seconds stage. He can put pressure on the UAE to work; they inexplicably did all the work for the UAE today.
Bahrain and Bernal were Ayuso's domestiques. The gap with Ciccone can't be closed by Bernal, but by the team that had two guys.
From Ayuso's point of view, if he shows he can compete with Roglic here then I am certain he will want to go to the Tour next year. His contract runs until the end of 2028 - is he really going to wait until he's 26/27 for a shot at leading a team in the Tour? The problem he has on UAE is that he is unlikely to be the leader at the Tour with Pogacar there. And would UAE ever let Pogacar skip the Tour, even if he wanted to, while he is in this sort of shape?
