Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[Rackham]

FYI to me it looked like Ayuso was starting to lose Bernal's wheel when Bernal lost Rog's wheel.

 

[Berniece]

He did so the day before he crashed out, dropping Evenepoel twice.

Dropping someone because you blew yourself up doesn't count. Anyone can do that...

 

[Red Rick]

So for the Tour we can use an excuse that Roglic wasn't "right" the first week and crashed out, but we can say that Roglic won 2 GT's since Evenepoel's Vuelta even though one of them was because Evenepoel had to quit the Giro due to covid while he was leading?

At no time did Roglic show he would be able to beat Evenepoel uphill in the TDF 2024, while we did see it the other way around. Using any other metric like "closest to Almeida" doesn't really matter.

That's why I make a pretty clear distinction between results and level, and I admit peak level wise could be a 50/50. I would absolutely take Rog if they're both not 100%.

 

[Unchained]

Bora wasn't superior. Bora had and has a better rider. They messed up the second intermediate sprint.

Don't know if you watched the final race, checked the GC, intermediate sprints turned out to be insignificant, the brilliant move made by Roglic was not a roll away after the sprint, he attacked in a non sprint zone. Videos and still photos post Primoz punishment show an occasional UAE rider trying to counter and drag Ayuso up, Bora was there albeit sparingly, but UAE didn't have typical all hands on deck closing down Roglic rolling off..instead his effort and team made chase very very difficult for UAE...or anyone else.. Roglic deserves majority credit, fantastic timing and super human on the limit effort on final day or final difficult kilometers, but the time gained or loss from bonus sprints was not the final margin. Real life could have had Ayuso or other UAE rider, someone other than Roglic accumulating bonus and his ride destroyed all

 

[Sciatic]

So for the Tour we can use an excuse that Roglic wasn't "right" the first week and crashed out, but we can say that Roglic won 2 GT's since Evenepoel's Vuelta even though one of them was because Evenepoel had to quit the Giro due to covid while he was leading?

At no time did Roglic show he would be able to beat Evenepoel uphill in the TDF 2024, while we did see it the other way around. Using any other metric like "closest to Almeida" doesn't really matter.

Probably a good idea to go to a different thread for this debate.

 

[Sciatic]

FYI to me it looked like Ayuso was starting to lose Bernal's wheel when Bernal lost Rog's wheel.

Bernal's head drop was so telling at that very moment--the gap subsequently went from 1 sec to 15 (or whatever it was) right after that.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Don't know if you watched the final race, checked the GC, intermediate sprints turned out to be insignificant, the brilliant move made by Roglic was not a roll away after the sprint, he attacked in a non sprint zone. Videos and still photos post Primoz punishment show an occasional UAE rider trying to counter and drag Ayuso up, Bora was there albeit sparingly, but UAE didn't have typical all hands on deck closing down Roglic rolling off..instead his effort and team made chase very very difficult for UAE...or anyone else.. Roglic deserves majority credit, fantastic timing and super human on the limit effort on final day or final difficult kilometers, but the time gained or loss from bonus sprints was not the final margin. Real life could have had Ayuso or other UAE rider, someone other than Roglic accumulating bonus and his ride destroyed all

Most of which seems to confirm the opinion that you seem to take issue with.
Intermediate sprints turned out to be insignificant, but Bora rode as though they were significant while failing to make them so in their favour.

 

[Escarabajo]

How many of us think he peaked too soon and will be a non factor in the Giro?

No way. It is something else IMHO. He is too young and has barely raced a lot this year.

 

[scribers]

He probably just needs to go to altitude and come out hammering

 

[veganrob]

So glad he lost. I hope he starts his downfall now.

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

 

[scribers]

I’m all in for his anti hero qualities. I want to see him trying to hide at back of a selection. Cycling needs more of him

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

That's only because the expectations are so high. He's 22 years old and he has already podiumed a Grand Tour, won two WT- stage races and top 5'd an additional five of those. How many 22 year olds have better results? Has his development continued at as high a speed as it used to? No, probably not, and there's of course a chance that he just doesn't get any better than this, but he's still a, what, top 20 rider in the world?

 

[pastronef]

So glad he lost. I hope he starts his downfall now.

adult having a personal go at an athlete he sees on tv. ffs get a grip

 

[Peyroteo94]

adult having a personal go at an athlete he sees on tv. ffs get a grip

You are absolutely right mate. But I'm portuguese and I feel for my portuguese fellas. What he did in the Tour was dreadful so I will simply cheer for his losses.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

 

[AmRacer]

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

Ayuso can win the Giro if Rogla crashes out.

 

[scribers]

Highly probable

 

[veganrob]

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

And I hope he does fulfill all the promise that he exhibited. It just seems we have been talking about him for so long and he is not getting there.

 

[veganrob]

Ayuso can win the Giro if Rogla crashes out.

There's a better chance Rogla crashes out than Ayuso winning.

 

[dazaau]

There's a better chance Rogla crashes out than Ayuso winning.

Isn't that a joint probability as the latter would be quite heavily influenced by the former?

i.e. Roglic crashing out significantly increases the chance of Ayuso winning?

Or are you saying the overall chances of Roglic crashing out are higher than the overall chances Ayuso wins because even with a crash you view it as not very likely.

 

[veganrob]

Isn't that a joint probability as the latter would be quite heavily influenced by the former?

i.e. Roglic crashing out significantly increases the chance of Ayuso winning?

Or are you saying the overall chances of Roglic crashing out are higher than the overall chances Ayuso wins because even with a crash you view it as not very likely.

Latter.

 

[ice&fire]

Does a Giro stage win deserve a bump?
Just to check if he's overrated, underrated or just rated. Asking for a friend.

 

[jmdirt]

Based on his claims can he now be called unico bala?

Congrats JA!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Good win by Ayuso, has to keep it together over the next 2 weeks and team has to support him.

 

[Cycling111]

I still see Roglic as the favorite, although I don't think today's performance is as strategic as some people think. Roglic put his team to work to win and couldn't.
But Ayuso has always been very good in finishes like this; his doubts are in other mountains.
That doesn't clear up my doubts.

I could be wrong because Ayuso is progressing and Roglic has already passed his prime. But until I see confirmation, Roglic is more reliable for Finestre and other stages than Ayuso.

In fact, I don't rule out seeing Del Toro like Froome with Wiggins. I think Del Toro's progress this year is enormous.
Sunday could be the first day Del Toro has to be restrained by UAEs car, like Froome in that Tour and Vingegaard in the 2022 Dauphine. Del Toro is much better on gravel than Ayuso, who has already struggled on the gravel stage of the Tour. Del Toro has often been flying on that asphalt at Strade Bianche.

If Roglic can take anything positive from today, it's that many are already making Ayuso the favorite for a 4 seconds stage. He can put pressure on the UAE to work; they inexplicably did all the work for the UAE today.
Bahrain and Bernal were Ayuso's domestiques. The gap with Ciccone can't be closed by Bernal, but by the team that had two guys.