Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[veganrob]

So glad he lost. I hope he starts his downfall now.

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

 

[scribers]

I’m all in for his anti hero qualities. I want to see him trying to hide at back of a selection. Cycling needs more of him

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

That's only because the expectations are so high. He's 22 years old and he has already podiumed a Grand Tour, won two WT- stage races and top 5'd an additional five of those. How many 22 year olds have better results? Has his development continued at as high a speed as it used to? No, probably not, and there's of course a chance that he just doesn't get any better than this, but he's still a, what, top 20 rider in the world?

 

[pastronef]

So glad he lost. I hope he starts his downfall now.

adult having a personal go at an athlete he sees on tv. ffs get a grip

 

[Peyroteo94]

adult having a personal go at an athlete he sees on tv. ffs get a grip

You are absolutely right mate. But I'm portuguese and I feel for my portuguese fellas. What he did in the Tour was dreadful so I will simply cheer for his losses.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I just don't get all the excitement about him. He just continues to disappoint.

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

 

[AmRacer]

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

Ayuso can win the Giro if Rogla crashes out.

 

[scribers]

Highly probable

 

[veganrob]

He's still only 22. When Evenepoel turned 22, the biggest win of his career was still San Sebastián in his first pro year. The first few months of that season definitely weren't better than Ayuso's have been - yes, he won Algarve, but his second place in Valencia was in spite of a disappointing eighth on the queen stage and then he bombed horribly at Tirreno. I remember similar talk about him around that time, but it turned out we were only a month away from his maiden Liège win and only five months from his Vuelta win. Not saying Ayuso will have a 2025 like Evenepoel's 2022 but the idea that he certainly won't improve is nonsensical.

And I hope he does fulfill all the promise that he exhibited. It just seems we have been talking about him for so long and he is not getting there.

 

[veganrob]

Ayuso can win the Giro if Rogla crashes out.

There's a better chance Rogla crashes out than Ayuso winning.

 

[dazaau]

There's a better chance Rogla crashes out than Ayuso winning.

Isn't that a joint probability as the latter would be quite heavily influenced by the former?

i.e. Roglic crashing out significantly increases the chance of Ayuso winning?

Or are you saying the overall chances of Roglic crashing out are higher than the overall chances Ayuso wins because even with a crash you view it as not very likely.

 

[veganrob]

Isn't that a joint probability as the latter would be quite heavily influenced by the former?

i.e. Roglic crashing out significantly increases the chance of Ayuso winning?

Or are you saying the overall chances of Roglic crashing out are higher than the overall chances Ayuso wins because even with a crash you view it as not very likely.

Latter.

 

[ice&fire]

Does a Giro stage win deserve a bump?
Just to check if he's overrated, underrated or just rated. Asking for a friend.

 

[jmdirt]

Based on his claims can he now be called unico bala?

Congrats JA!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Good win by Ayuso, has to keep it together over the next 2 weeks and team has to support him.

 

[Cycling111]

I still see Roglic as the favorite, although I don't think today's performance is as strategic as some people think. Roglic put his team to work to win and couldn't.
But Ayuso has always been very good in finishes like this; his doubts are in other mountains.
That doesn't clear up my doubts.

I could be wrong because Ayuso is progressing and Roglic has already passed his prime. But until I see confirmation, Roglic is more reliable for Finestre and other stages than Ayuso.

In fact, I don't rule out seeing Del Toro like Froome with Wiggins. I think Del Toro's progress this year is enormous.
Sunday could be the first day Del Toro has to be restrained by UAEs car, like Froome in that Tour and Vingegaard in the 2022 Dauphine. Del Toro is much better on gravel than Ayuso, who has already struggled on the gravel stage of the Tour. Del Toro has often been flying on that asphalt at Strade Bianche.

If Roglic can take anything positive from today, it's that many are already making Ayuso the favorite for a 4 seconds stage. He can put pressure on the UAE to work; they inexplicably did all the work for the UAE today.
Bahrain and Bernal were Ayuso's domestiques. The gap with Ciccone can't be closed by Bernal, but by the team that had two guys.

 

[HashRouge]

I still see Roglic as the favorite, although I don't think today's performance is as strategic as some people think. Roglic put his team to work to win and couldn't.
But Ayuso has always been very good in finishes like this; his doubts are in other mountains.
That doesn't clear up my doubts.

I could be wrong because Ayuso is progressing and Roglic has already passed his prime. But until I see confirmation, Roglic is more reliable for Finestre and other stages than Ayuso.

In fact, I don't rule out seeing Del Toro like Froome with Wiggins. I think Del Toro's progress this year is enormous.
Sunday could be the first day Del Toro has to be restrained by UAEs car, like Froome in that Tour and Vingegaard in the 2022 Dauphine. Del Toro is much better on gravel than Ayuso, who has already struggled on the gravel stage of the Tour. Del Toro has often been flying on that asphalt at Strade Bianche.

If Roglic can take anything positive from today, it's that many are already making Ayuso the favorite for a 4 seconds stage. He can put pressure on the UAE to work; they inexplicably did all the work for the UAE today.
Bahrain and Bernal were Ayuso's domestiques. The gap with Ciccone can't be closed by Bernal, but by the team that had two guys.

I also still see Roglic as the favourite. However, I would really like Ayuso to have a good Giro. I think a top level performance here might increase the chance of him leaving for another team before his contract is up. There are a couple of teams that could afford it, I think, and it would be great to spread the best GC contenders a little more widely. Almeida's contract is up at the end of next year though (I think), so maybe he is more likely to be the first to go?

From Ayuso's point of view, if he shows he can compete with Roglic here then I am certain he will want to go to the Tour next year. His contract runs until the end of 2028 - is he really going to wait until he's 26/27 for a shot at leading a team in the Tour? The problem he has on UAE is that he is unlikely to be the leader at the Tour with Pogacar there. And would UAE ever let Pogacar skip the Tour, even if he wanted to, while he is in this sort of shape?

 

[Peyroteo94]

I also still see Roglic as the favourite. However, I would really like Ayuso to have a good Giro. I think a top level performance here might increase the chance of him leaving for another team before his contract is up. There are a couple of teams that could afford it, I think, and it would be great to spread the best GC contenders a little more widely. Almeida's contract is up at the end of next year though (I think), so maybe he is more likely to be the first to go?

From Ayuso's point of view, if he shows he can compete with Roglic here then I am certain he will want to go to the Tour next year. His contract runs until the end of 2028 - is he really going to wait until he's 26/27 for a shot at leading a team in the Tour? The problem he has on UAE is that he is unlikely to be the leader at the Tour with Pogacar there. And would UAE ever let Pogacar skip the Tour, even if he wanted to, while he is in this sort of shape?

Ayuso will leave the team, there is no chance he will lead the team in the Tour.

 

[Cycling111]

Ayuso will leave the team, there is no chance he will lead the team in the Tour.

Yesterday on X, I read quite a few comments from Visma fans calling for Ayuso's signing.

It doesn't make sense to want him out of the UAE and still want him at Visma. Also, as a domestique for Vingegaard. He didn't want to be a domestique when he hadn't won anything, but he's going to be one now

I think UAE will release him from his contract, but not to go to Visma. In any case, it would be a mistake for him to leave one team because he can't lead the Tour and join another with the same problem.

I think he'll end up at Bora if Remco ends up at Ineos.
Roglic doesn't have many years left, and he has no room for improvement before the Tour.

In any case, to win the Tour, he not only has to beat Roglic, he also be far superior to him.
Remco was at a similar level to Roglic in the 2023 Volta and still has a large gap with Pogacar and Vingegaard in the Tour. Ayuso will have to be far superior to Roglic; if he's tied with him, he'll still be far behind the others.

But he can't wait much longer. Pogacar is still young, and when Pogacar begins to decline, perhaps Paul Seixas or someone else will be there to win the Tour.

Ayuso must change team in 2026.