Kreuziger going down?

[Dear Wiggo]

it's not slow for me?

Ah really. I have had ISP issues recently, so maybe it's that.

 

[TomasC]

Here are the dates of the tests

So it seems these are all his ABP tests from 2007 to 2013.

It would be handy to extract the dates from the PDF, map them with the values and with the specific races...who volunteers?

 

[PeterB]

Here are the dates of the tests

So it seems these are all his ABP tests from 2007 to 2013.

It would be handy to extract the dates from the PDF, map them with the values and with the specific races...who volunteers?

Just be careful as the document which you refer to includes more samples than what is shown on the graph (e.g. sample 48 from the graph collected on 20-05-2012 is listed as sample 58 in your referred document).

Also de Boer's paper (p.16) contains simple list of samples with dates but again includes additional samples than shown on the graph so numbering of samples does not match here either.

There may be more samples mentioned here and there, but test results are probably available only for those that are included in the graph (with one or two exceptions when papers mentioned e.g. Hgb also for RK's sample taken for other than ABP purpose). Iniesta analyses most of them and puts them also into context of races.

 

[TheGame]

In fact, almost all samples are referred to specific dates in the experts' papers (see Iniesta). In particular:

Sample 44 11-04-2012 No competition 15,5 1,56%
Sample 45 24-04-2012 Tour de Romandie 16,4 1,58%
Sample 46 03-05-2012 Pre-Giro 15 1,46%
Sample 47 14-05-2012 Giro 14,5 1,44%
Sample 48 20-05-2012 Giro 14,8 1,52%
Sample 49 24-05-2012 Giro 16,1 1,4%

Two last samples are from 2013 season. Data start with 2008 samples:

Sample 1 30/04/2008 Tour de Romandie 15,4 1,15%
Sample 2 03/07/2008 Pre-Tour 14,9 0,88%
Sample 3 15/07/2008 Tour de France 14,8 0,99%

sample numbers in iniesta's report dont match sample numbers on doping control sheets/adams test numbers just to confuse things

 

[TomasC]

RR's twitter:

Race Radio @TheRaceRadio
Kreuzinger's HCt went from 43.2 to 48.1 in 10 days DURING the Giro. Not normal

Race Radio @TheRaceRadio
Kreuzinger graphs also show a drop in HGB coupled with spike in Rect. Very good indication of a blood withdraw

Race Radio @TheRaceRadio
Kreuzinger graphs show a spike in HGB coupled with drop in Rect. Very good indication of a transfusion, especially at end of a 3 week GT

If correct, the whole case is laughable and RK stands no chance in CAS. Well we knew that already.

 

[TheGame]

Giro, Hb and Retic (hb/10 to fit graph)

 

[TomasC]

Giro, Hb and Retic (hb/10 to fit graph)

Great job TheGame! So it's a micro dose before 2nd and 5th test and a transfusion before the 6th?

 

[TheGame]

2011 Tour

2012 Giro

 

[the sceptic]

So this is where Kreuziger was riding at almost 50%

1 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Astana Pro Team 6:18:03
2 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Barracuda 0:00:19
3 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team 0:00:32

Not bad by Mr Machine Error. Only lose 19 seconds to someone with a fresh blood bag.

 

[plooton]

Finally Roman released the BP data that suggests his case is nothing else than a wilful and calculated action aiming to bring a damage. That's not only generally illogical and anti-intuitive case (as he just underperformed in the two concerned periods of racing), the date itself shows no significant values that would deviate from the norm.
http://kreuzigercase.cz/documents/

 

[TomasC]

Finally Roman released the BP data that suggests his case is nothing else than a wilful and calculated action aiming to bring a damage. That's not only generally illogical and anti-intuitive case (as he just underperformed in the two concerned periods of racing), the date itself shows no significant values that would deviate from the norm.
http://kreuzigercase.cz/documents/

You should probably read the previous posts.

 

[plooton]

So this is where Kreuziger was riding at almost 50%

Yes, coz he wasn't a threat any more for all the contenders, they let him go clear, that all.

 

[plooton]

You should probably read the previous posts.

what particular - thats too much info

 

[the sceptic]

Yes, coz he wasn't a threat any more for all the contenders, they let him go clear, that all.

and where do you think the 4% gain in hematocrit came from?

 

[keeponrollin]

and where do you think the 4% gain in hematocrit came from?

That's obviously the natural profile you'd expect of any clean rider in a three week GT. ....

 

[plooton]

That's not a marker that would any significantly exceed the probability and diverge outside limits of normal variation.

 

[ralphbert]

and where do you think the 4% gain in hematocrit came from?

Actually it was an 11% Gain going from 43.2 to 48.1
Coupled with retic Dropping in the toilet and hb surging.
Seems legit

 

[burning]

I wonder why he cracked hard on Giau, maybe it is due to a bad transfusion?

 

[ralphbert]

That's not a marker that would any significantly exceed the probability and diverge outside limits of normal variation.

Not sure if you are being serious or not?

Hemocrit is measure of red blood cells, these go down as fatigue builds
Hb is a measure of blood volume, these go down with dehydration and fatigue
Ret % is measure of blood age, if you are recovering hemocrit and volume then the retic must rise because you need new blood to achieve that.
Unless you bung in some old blood of course.
You can push the retic up a bit after a transfusion by micro dosing epo but you are limited by the test limit/glow time.

 

[westerner]

Sample 46 03-05-2012 Pre-Giro 15 1,46%
Sample 47 14-05-2012 Giro 14,5 1,44%
Sample 48 20-05-2012 Giro 14,8 1,52%
Sample 49 24-05-2012 Giro 16,1 1,4%

Hey was there not a machine calibration error on 3rd that affected everyone's numbers? Maybe machine broke on the 24th too?

http://cavalierfc.tumblr.com/post/31376789644/captaintbag-expert-analysis-ryder-hesjedal


"vaughters says yes

hct at giro start was high across the board"

 

[ralphbert]

hct at giro start was high across the board

Lol. Like in the postal days where everybody stated at 49.5hcb? What a coincidence!

 

[PeterB]

Actually it was an 11% Gain going from 43.2 to 48.1
Coupled with retic Dropping in the toilet and hb surging.
Seems legit

To be fair, it should be mentioned that even Kreuziger admits (via his experts) that this particular test result might indeed be interpreted as that he used some prohibited method or substance. However, he adds that this is not the only explanation, and that there exist other explanations, which in fact were what actually occurred. And that's the main point of the whole case.

See Iniesta's report from p. 69, where he analyses this increase in Hgb in detail. He proposes the following arguments in favour of alternative (i.e. not doping) explanation of the values:

1. % Ret was almost identical (i.e. decrease within measurement error?), while more significant drop should be observed if blood was transfused
2. No EPO positive from urine tests during Giro
3. Unability to recover plasma volume after de-hydratation in previous stages, "aided" by thyroid issue (i.e. his ability to recover after extreme efforts is impaired and delayed)

So eventually it is about whether this explanation of what we see in blood values can be accepted as possible, and whether we believe that this really was the cause... CAS will not have an easy task.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

It would appear a bunch of first year law students will be able to nail Kreuziger based on this information.

Christ we are wasting time and money here, Kreuziger should have been banned years ago on this evidence.

 

[pdluz7]

I learned something. For more that you show, prove, argue. Don't make a difference. The people only see what they want to see.

 

[hrotha]

1. % Ret was almost identical (i.e. decrease within measurement error?), while more significant drop should be observed if blood was transfused
2. No EPO positive from urine tests during Giro

This is where his explanation breaks down. The fact that there wasn't a positive for EPO is irrelevant, and therefore #1 can easily be explained by microdosing.

CAS will have a very easy task if this is what Kreuziger has.