Lance now Astana team leader...

[RichCT]

Do you actually know anything about how a TT is ridden? Um, they have been doing this for years and do so very precisely. TT's aren't some downtown crit. Lance rode with very stringent physiological parameters just as did all of the real contenders. The only thing that would have altered it is if there had been major wind differences. There weren't.

I understand how very scientific the training and execution is, but does that mean there is absolutely no room for any sort of psychological factor? Is it not at all possible that Lance or Levi for that matter find a little bit extra knowing that they are behind Contador at the time check? They do always say that the yellow jersey gives a rider wings!!

 

[Anonymous]

Uh, I think you mean 'did'.

i do, in fact i did, or didnt i, i have got a fridging clue to be honest, im very tired..
Im also a little unwell at the mo, and i keep typing completely the wrong words occasionally

i shall go back and change it then just ask what you are talking about..

 

[Anonymous]

I understand how very scientific the training and execution is, but does that mean there is absolutely no room for any sort of psychological factor? Is it not at all possible that Lance or Levi for that matter find a little bit extra knowing that they are behind Contador at the time check? They do always say that the yellow jersey gives a rider wings!!

Not in that TT, not enough to make up the deficit to Contador.

 

[hulkgogan]

Because we all know that when it comes down to it (a) he won't be there in the mountains and (b) he will definitely work for Andy or Frank. We've seen that play before and we know how it plays out.

In the main this is totally logical and the official party line, however, Cancellara is hugely ambitious and has said that someday he'd like to know whether he has the capabilities to win the Tour. After his win in Swissland, it wouldn't surprise me if he's flattered himself into thinking maybe the time to start finding out is now.

Put it this way, until Cancellara is dropped and out of it, I'm not convinced he's gonna automatically sacrifice his own ambitions.

If Andy is 3 or 4 minutes down before he's even reached the first mountain, is that really a guy who deserves all the team's resources just so he can finish 5th or 6th in GC? If that kind of rationalization is not going through Bjarne's head, for sure it will be going through Fabian's.

 

[imtrankwl]

....and finally, Lance and his half of the team pulling on the front to gap off Contador when he was in the second group. That is such bad sportsmanship and goes back to the Hinault/Lemond days of Hinault promising to help Greg and then racing against him.

I never would have considered Zubeldia to be one of Lance's half of the team. But maybe I'm wrong.

Because Saxo showed who was team leader when they chased like hell with Sparticus in the break.

I found this interesting as, before the first stage I read at least one if not 2 "experts" interviewed who suggested Cancellara could be a wildcard top 5 or better finisher this year. He's dominating in the time trials and supposedly a few pounds lighter to help him in the mountains.

How often do you see a team chase down their own yellow jersey wearer? I know it's not the first time but it's unusual.


Maybe Hincapie tipped of Armstrong but it's unlikely it was premeditated. Sounds like the winds were very unpredictable and therefore difficult for anyone to plan ahead what they would do. Depending on whether or not Cavendish is right, Columbia's effort may have been spur of the moment, or maybe it's something the team decided on shortly before coming to this corner. Some of these guys have a lot of experience and have seen what this course has done to teams in the past. They may have been getting ready for it. It's even more likely to me that Armstrong, with his experience, was ready for any contingency.

As for the Astana tactics, doesn't this give them a much better chance of getting a least a couple of guys on the podium? Doesn't it also help create a 2nd person that Cadel Evans needs to worry about on the road, at least for a while?

It's entirely possible that Bruyneel knows that AC is the real threat to win and today was all about positioning for a couple of other possibilities. Additionally, as pointed out by others, a chance for Armstrong to wear the yellow for a few days. Not an unreasonable reward for things he may have done to help save the team over the last couple of months as well as good for the Livestrong cause (not to mention just good for Astana overall).

 

[Anonymous]

I never would have considered Zubeldia to be one of Lance's half of the team. But maybe I'm wrong.

I had the same thought

I found this interesting as, before the first stage I read at least one if not 2 "experts" interviewed who suggested Cancellara could be a wildcard top 5 or better finisher this year. He's dominating in the time trials and supposedly a few pounds lighter to help him in the mountains.

How often do you see a team chase down their own yellow jersey wearer? I know it's not the first time but it's unusual.


Maybe Hincapie tipped of Armstrong but it's unlikely it was premeditated. Sounds like the winds were very unpredictable and therefore difficult for anyone to plan ahead what they would do. Depending on whether or not Cavendish is right, Columbia's effort may have been spur of the moment, or maybe it's something the team decided on shortly before coming to this corner. Some of these guys have a lot of experience and have seen what this course has done to teams in the past. They may have been getting ready for it. It's even more likely to me that Armstrong, with his experience, was ready for any contingency.

As for the Astana tactics, doesn't this give them a much better chance of getting a least a couple of guys on the podium? Doesn't it also help create a 2nd person that Cadel Evans needs to worry about on the road, at least for a while?

It's entirely possible that Bruyneel knows that AC is the real threat to win and today was all about positioning for a couple of other possibilities. Additionally, as pointed out by others, a chance for Armstrong to wear the yellow for a few days. Not an unreasonable reward for things he may have done to help save the team over the last couple of months as well as good for the Livestrong cause (not to mention just good for Astana overall).

Again, I wonder if this may be the case. Especially if it was AC who let the gap open. To think he was at his limit and just couldn't hang would be completely illogical. If he let the gap open, it was by choice. Maybe they are playing the games they like to play. Keep people talking all the while knowing that Contador is much too strong to be considered anything but the real team leader.

Popo did have to urge Zubeldia on a little to get him to the front though. You could clearly see Lance take the order (or give it, who knows?), give it to Popo, who then went to the front, but urged Zubeldia on a couple of times before he arrived.

The race report says that Lance pulled, but I never saw it.

 

[hulkgogan]

I understand how very scientific the training and execution is, but does that mean there is absolutely no room for any sort of psychological factor? Is it not at all possible that Lance or Levi for that matter find a little bit extra knowing that they are behind Contador at the time check? They do always say that the yellow jersey gives a rider wings!!

Even trainspotter Boardman said the power he'd sometimes put out in races was technically "impossible" compared to his pure numbers.

 

[Anonymous]

Even trainspotter Boardman said the power he'd sometimes put out in races was technically "impossible" compared to his pure numbers.

Yea, his first stage back at the TdF after retirement, I am sure he was holding back.....

 

[Anonymous]

The race report says that Lance pulled, but I never saw it.

rewatched the last 20k when the missus got home, and having already read the comments about lance working kept an eye out.. he did a fair bit, less than the others but more than some in the group, in fact with the exception of columbia and the two milram guys, he did a fair bit..

 

[Publicus]

i did say probably, but yes, LA is the last person i would write off because you just never know...

How you win the tour.
Fitness
Talent/Ability
Experience

Ok.. Alberto, we know he has an A for talent, but today proved again, as well as paris nice, why I amongst others still dont rave about AC in the way that some do. I think tactically he is missing something, so a B
Fitness, he certainly looks in good form, but its a three week race, but lets give him an A anyway.. so thats AAB

Lance, Experience, obviously an A, he proved it again today, right place, right time. Talent, undoubted, another A, the greatest tour rider of the last 20 years. So it comes down to fitness. Does he have it? We dont know, yes not the greatest TT but then neither was levis, but levis comments "im not 100%, but i dont want to be yet, its a three week race"... Nobody knows what lances form is, or is going to be. We cant base it on the giro, it was his second major race in four years, his first tour in three years, and hed just broken his collarbone (and still finished 12th and got stronger and stronger as it went on..) if lances fitness hits B hes gonna give alberto a run for the money because of his superior experience, but what if he does hit form..

Regardless of what you think of him, regardless of what the other riders think of him, of how hes been out three years, the collarbone break etc, only a fool would completely write off Lance Armstrong.

I dont think he will win, but if he did, i wouldnt be in the slighest bit surprised.

Funny. You are wondering whether he has the fitness for a 3 week stage race, when he's won the Giro (with literally no training) and the Vuelta last year. I don't think there is any question about his fitness.

I will concede that he is young and thus doesn't have the experience of a Lance Armstrong (or a Levi Leipheimer). That's only going to come with time and mistakes (like today and Paris-Nice).

As for Lance's fitness, I think we have the answer on it (IMHO). As he said, he is in as good shape as he was back in 2002 and much better than 2003. So I don't buy into his "I haven't raced for a month" or that he's been out of competition for 3.5 years excuses. He wasn't the better man on Stage 1. Better than 170, but not better than the other 10. Today of course he's trumpeting his experience and his twin leadership. My guess is he will break the excuses again if he has a bad day in the mountains.

I'm not expecting Lance to play Heras for Contador (frankly I don't think Contador needs it). And I certainly don't begrudge him taking advantage of his experience. I just don't think, at the end of the day, he's got the same top end he had when he was actively competing. Obviously I should know better than to bet against a 7-time TdF winner, but I've watched him in every race (save the Gila and Nevada City crit) and he's just not the same dude anymore. Better than 90% of the peleton, definitely. But not heads and shoulders better than the best anymore.

 

[BikeCentric]

rewatched the last 20k when the missus got home, and having already read the comments about lance working kept an eye out.. he did a fair bit, less than the others but more than some in the group, in fact with the exception of columbia and the two milram guys, he did a fair bit..

I guess you're mistaking Armstrong for both Zubeldia and Popovych? Or maybe you accidentally put in the video of a different race?

 

[Publicus]

In the main this is totally logical and the official party line, however, Cancellara is hugely ambitious and has said that someday he'd like to know whether he has the capabilities to win the Tour. After his win in Swissland, it wouldn't surprise me if he's flattered himself into thinking maybe the time to start finding out is now.

Put it this way, until Cancellara is dropped and out of it, I'm not convinced he's gonna automatically sacrifice his own ambitions.

If Andy is 3 or 4 minutes down before he's even reached the first mountain, is that really a guy who deserves all the team's resources just so he can finish 5th or 6th in GC? If that kind of rationalization is not going through Bjarne's head, for sure it will be going through Fabian's.

If Andy is 3 or 4 minutes down, then a lot has gone wrong for Saxo Bank.

 

[Anonymous]

Funny. a)You are wondering whether he has the fitness for a 3 week stage race, when he's won the Giro (with literally no training) and the Vuelta last year. I don't think there is any question about his fitness.

I will concede that he is young and thus doesn't have the experience of a Lance Armstrong (or a Levi Leipheimer). That's only going to come with time and mistakes (like today and Paris-Nice).

As for Lance's fitness, I think we have the answer on it (IMHO). As he said, he is in as good shape as he was back in 2002 and much better than 2003. So I don't buy into his "I haven't raced for a month" or that he's been out of competition for 3.5 years excuses. He wasn't the better man on Stage 1. Better than 170, but not better than the other 10. Today of course he's trumpeting his experience and his twin leadership. My guess is he will break the excuses again if he has a bad day in the mountains.

I'm not expecting Lance to play Heras for Contador (frankly I don't think Contador needs it). And I certainly don't begrudge him taking advantage of his experience. I just don't think, at the end of the day, he's got the same top end he had when he was actively competing. Obviously I should know better than to bet against a 7-time TdF winner, b) but I've watched him in every race (save the Gila and Nevada City crit) and he's just not the same dude anymore. Better than 90% of the peleton, definitely. c) But not heads and shoulders better than the best anymore.

i gave him an a) but that doesnt prove his current fitness and form giong into this race. obviously he has the fitness to do 3 weeks, but what level is he at now,. we wont know till the 3rd week..

b) so the tour down under, cali, and giro then.. and with each one he has improved

c) no he isnt, but if i give alberto AAB for talent, fitness and experience and lance an AAB for experience, talent and fitness, its not difficult to see that if either turns that B into an A they could have the edge.. My point is, dont write LA off.. Again, i dont think he will do, but if you told me to bet my house on someone NOT winning the tour, there are many many other riders i would risk it on first..

isnt it amazing how one comment can lead to such mass debate

 

[Wasilij]

Spelling bee

"...calling us 'Lance haters and pathetic' wreaks...."

"Reeks," ace, "reeks." (Related to German "riechen.")

 

[Anonymous]

I guess you're mistaking Armstrong for both Zubeldia and Popovych? Or maybe you accidentally put in the video of a different race?

yes, cos im that stupid..

He didnt do a lot, but he definately did some, and certainly more than most of the others in the breakaway, as said, with the exception of the milram guys and columbia (we dont really count slipstreams slight excursion to the front), Zubeldia did more, Popo was the main worker of the three..

im assuming youve watched it back twice as well..

does it matter anyway?

 

[BikeCentric]

yes, cos im that stupid..

He didnt do a lot, but he definately did some, and certainly more than most of the others in the breakaway, as said, with the exception of the milram guys and columbia (we dont really count slipstreams slight excursion to the front), Zubeldia did more, Popo was the main worker of the three..

im assuming youve watched it back twice as well..

does it matter anyway?

I'm just giving you ****e Dim, but I didn't see Lance take a pull; I saw lots of Popo and a little Zubeldia pulling for Astana. Could be different feeds.

 

[Anonymous]

I'm just giving you ****e Dim, but I didn't see Lance take a pull; I saw lots of Popo and a little Zubeldia pulling for Astana. Could be different feeds.

pulling might be generous.. but livestrong certainly got some front of the group publicity..

 

[Publicus]

i gave him an a) but that doesnt prove his current fitness and form giong into this race. obviously he has the fitness to do 3 weeks, but what level is he at now,. we wont know till the 3rd week..

b) so the tour down under, cali, and giro then.. and with each one he has improved

c) no he isnt, but if i give alberto AAB for talent, fitness and experience and lance an AAB for experience, talent and fitness, its not difficult to see that if either turns that B into an A they could have the edge.. My point is, dont write LA off.. Again, i dont think he will do, but if you told me to bet my house on someone NOT winning the tour, there are many many other riders i would risk it on first..

isnt it amazing how one comment can lead to such mass debate

On (A), I think you are just not acknowledging that is fit. Frankly you are the first person to suggest that he's not no form. Everything I've seen from the Dauphine, Spanish TT and the first two stages (I haven't seen todays yet), make it clear his form is great. So maybe you can spell out why you question it.

On (B) don't disagree about his form improving. I'm saying that according to Lance his form is what it always was (maybe not 2004/2005). If you accept that as true, then his performance on Stage 1 tells you all you need to know about his fitness.

On (C), I agree with you. I wouldn't bet the house against him or Contador.

 

[mabuka]

Stage 1 was not at all decisive where Contador and LA are concerned. Armstrong rode in 10+ degree higher temperatures coupled with a favorable breeze, it made for better riding conditions for Contador. His TT time difference wasn't significant considering those conditions. With those conditions and Lance still not peaked yet...my money is on Lance being stronger over the next 2 weeks into the finish. He also gave evidence he is a smarter rider and saw the events unfolding...we shall see.

 

[mabuka]

I watched it several times...next time I'll count how many times he was at the front, but LA did do a reasonable amount of work...on the other hand, the others are in fact domes...so why shouldn't they do more work?? The strongest rider on Astana has not been determined yet.

 

[Parrot23]

Andrew Hood at Velonews says:

"Now the tables are turned. It will be Contador who be obliged to not attack Armstrong on the decisive climbing stage to Arcalis in Andorra, especially if Armstrong is wearing yellow."

Comments?

 

[Publicus]

Stage 1 was not at all decisive where Contador and LA are concerned. Armstrong rode in 10+ degree higher temperatures coupled with a favorable breeze, it made for better riding conditions for Contador. His TT time difference wasn't significant considering those conditions. With those conditions and Lance still not peaked yet...my money is on Lance being stronger over the next 2 weeks into the finish. He also gave evidence he is a smarter rider and saw the events unfolding...we shall see.

I see you are as full of excuses as Armstrong was post-stage 1. According to Lance his form is as good as it was in prior Tour's, so let's not start making stuff up about.

He wasn't the best man that day. Better than 170, but not better than 3 of his teammates, including the team leader Contador. He used his experience to his advantage today to gain some precious seconds that he will likely lose in the coming days as the route heads into the mountains.

But you keep telling yourself that the more grueling miles/kilometers he rides the better he will get. If he's losing time in the process (see the Giro), I'm not sure it's going to matter. I am sure he's going to compete. I am not sure the result will be the same though.

 

[Publicus]

Andrew Hood at Velonews says:

"Now the tables are turned. It will be Contador who be obliged to not attack Armstrong on the decisive climbing stage to Arcalis in Andorra, especially if Armstrong is wearing yellow."

Comments?

If Lance can't follow, he can't follow. Hell that happened to Contador back in 2007, when he bonked and Levi pushed on to take second. It happens. There is no controversy and if Lance is expecting Contador to ride himself into the ground to set Lance up, he's a fool. I don't think Lance is a fool.

 

[Parrot23]

That's for sure.

I see Bruyneel doesn't want the yellow after the TTT and it's why his three guys worked in the break near the end today:

"it would be a good situation if tomorrow, after the team time trial, Cancellara could stay in the jersey. That would help us a lot in the days after the team time trial."

 

[39*23t]

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/06072009/58/tour-de-france-armstrong-demands-astana-backing.html

i think should remove all doubt