Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 km

[AlexNYC]

I think tomorrow we’ll see an attack by Quintana at some point. He knows he needs to be aggressive now and the intrateam battle will probably push him more towards that kind of thinking. I don’t know if Landa has reached his peak yet; I think he’s aiming more for the third week, otherwise, I’d think this is also a stage for him to do damage.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

Only if you count Thomas and Jungels as real contenders then they have a slight lead on everyone else.

Why not? The guy has been 6th and 8th in the Giro before, winning the best young rider competition twice in consecutive years. A feat last achieved by two people in the early 90s. I dont say that he will win the Tour but top 10 should be almost a given. I wouldn't even rule him out for top 5 after what happened to a lot of other "contenders". He has almost 2 minutes or more over guys like Dan Martin, Zakarin, Uran or Bardet already. Add the DNF of Porte. I had Jungels just outside the top 10 at the start of the race when everybody was healthy. His stock has only gone up since (or others failed their expectations). It baffles me how almost nobody seems to take him seriously. He wont destroy the rest of the field in the high mountains but he can limit his losses. Remember 2011, when they gave a guy named Voeckler 2 minutes over the other favorites? He also limited his losses and finished 4th in the end... and that guy wasnt half the climber Jungels is.

Stages so far has suited Jungels. He is an all-round great rider. If he can limit his losses now in the mountains and be within distance for the ITT he has a good chance for a top 10. Maybe even higher. What speaks against him tho is the lack of support. Except for Alaphilippe, he dont got much support. Im pretty sure Alaphilippe should be having a free role to go for the KOM and stages also. Not look after Jungels. Even tho Jungels might still do pretty good on his own just defending himself, since he is pretty much is in the mold of Dumoulin type rider.

I said that often before, you only need support to achieve the podium. Dan Martin was 6th with two fractured vertebrae and Brambilla as only helper. For what should Jungels use a domestique? He will hang at the back of the group of favorites and when he gets dropped he rides his own tempo. That is exactly what happened on the stage where he towed Dumoulin to the finish. He was initially dropped, set his own rhythm and got back to the Dutch. No domestique needed. Its not like he has to chase breakaways or defend a jersey. He can hang on as long as he is able to. No one would ask him to put riders on the front.

 

[Frosty]

As others have mentioned, the race for the yellow jersey could be quite interesting, van Avermaet may well go in the break as in 2016 and i suppose its possible that Gilbert may chance his arm too. That seems unlikely to work so then it comes to the GC contenders who are all close together, Jungels and Thomas are the highest up at the moment but if someone does decide to explode things on the Romme/Colombier then their lead over Valverde, Majka, Fuglsang, Froome could be wiped away giving quite a number of people a chance at yellow.

Will be interested to see how Taaramae goes in the mountains. His 11th in 2011 is a long time ago now but he has had some decent results at times.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

After the disappointment on yesterday's cobbles stage, let's hope this one delivers.

Wait, what disappointment?

Nothing really happened except some riders crashing. None of the GC riders dared any real attack and it seemed they we're all happy not to lose time. That's the disappointment. I would have expected some of the GC riders to see the stage as an opportunity to gain time, and not as a risk to lose time.

How? Even though slightly less difficult than yesterday's stage, 2015 taught us not much was going to happen with this weather (apart from the crashes, punctures etc.).

2010 was great.

That one was also affected by crashes. Besides, different times (no super strong Sky).

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I predict we'll see the yellow jersey in an early break - because none of the GC teams want to chase GVA down, being the first of 3 hard mountain days.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I don't think Van Avermaet will be that bothered about defending yellow now - it's just delaying the inevitable. What he wants to do is win a stage and I doubt that is possible tomorrow even from the break. Sunday looks like his best chance

 

[loge1884]

I expect Quick Step to pace in order not to allow a break until the intermediate sprint (possibly the only chance for Gaviria to challenge the green jersey at some point) .... after that we are on the ascent to Croix Fry, so perhaps there will be no break there, but maybe some pacing of either Movistar or Sky .... so to me it looks more like a stage, where the big teams will try to wear out some of their minor contenders ....

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

Only if you count Thomas and Jungels as real contenders then they have a slight lead on everyone else.

Why not? The guy has been 6th and 8th in the Giro before, winning the best young rider competition twice in consecutive years. A feat last achieved by two people in the early 90s. I dont say that he will win the Tour but top 10 should be almost a given. I wouldn't even rule him out for top 5 after what happened to a lot of other "contenders". He has almost 2 minutes or more over guys like Dan Martin, Zakarin, Uran or Bardet already. Add the DNF of Porte. I had Jungels just outside the top 10 at the start of the race when everybody was healthy. His stock has only gone up since (or others failed their expectations). It baffles me how almost nobody seems to take him seriously. He wont destroy the rest of the field in the high mountains but he can limit his losses. Remember 2011, when they gave a guy named Voeckler 2 minutes over the other favorites? He also limited his losses and finished 4th in the end... and that guy wasnt half the climber Jungels is.

Stages so far has suited Jungels. He is an all-round great rider. If he can limit his losses now in the mountains and be within distance for the ITT he has a good chance for a top 10. Maybe even higher. What speaks against him tho is the lack of support. Except for Alaphilippe, he dont got much support. Im pretty sure Alaphilippe should be having a free role to go for the KOM and stages also. Not look after Jungels. Even tho Jungels might still do pretty good on his own just defending himself, since he is pretty much is in the mold of Dumoulin type rider.

I said that often before, you only need support to achieve the podium. Dan Martin was 6th with two fractured vertebrae and Brambilla as only helper. For what should Jungels use a domestique? He will hang at the back of the group of favorites and when he gets dropped he rides his own tempo. That is exactly what happened on the stage where he towed Dumoulin to the finish. He was initially dropped, set his own rhythm and got back to the Dutch. No domestique needed. Its not like he has to chase breakaways or defend a jersey. He can hang on as long as he is able to. No one would ask him to put riders on the front.

If you read the last sentence of the post it was exactly what I said. The "no support" was just something I pointed out that could be a disadvantage.

 

[filipepc]

Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

 

[klintE]

Quintana is fresh, Landa is fresh, Bala is fresh
Froome is after Giro
Make him suffer
Not for this stage, for this week
The rest is silence

 

[del1962]

We don’t know how Landa was effected by his crash

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Quintana is fresh, Landa is fresh, Bala is fresh
Froome is after Giro
Make him suffer
Not for this stage, for this week
The rest is silence

Froome is fresh, he used the Giro as preparation for the Tour, he just happened to win it as well.

 

[Bolder]

Interesting talk about Jugels. My impression is that earlier he was something of a GC potential rider but has emerged as more of a classics threat. He's something of a poor man's Valverde.

 

[rick james]

Re:

Quintana is fresh, Landa is fresh, Bala is fresh
Froome is after Giro
Make him suffer
Not for this stage, for this week
The rest is silence

Landa fresh??? Do we just ignore the fact that he was eating tarmac yesterday

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

Interesting talk about Jugels. My impression is that earlier he was something of a GC potential rider but has emerged as more of a classics threat. He's something of a poor man's Valverde.

Its actually the other way around. He was always seen as a future classics guy (won Roubaix U23 in 2012 for example) but has since decided he wants to become a GC rider. I think right now he is more of a poor mans Dumoulin.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, Valverde is not a good comparison really. Yeah, Jungels is versatile, but he also reminds me much more of Dumoulin. Looking forward to see what level he is on climbing-wise.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Interesting talk about Jugels. My impression is that earlier he was something of a GC potential rider but has emerged as more of a classics threat. He's something of a poor man's Valverde.

He hasn’t “emerged as a classics threat,” he was on the strongest team at Liege and nobody could organize a chase behind him. He hasn’t suddenly turned into Kwiatkowski.

He has some GC top 10s in grand tours and is improving as a climber. He is a good TT rider who can survive in the high mountains without significant time loss, which used to be the exact template of a GC leader before everything swung in favor of climbers in the past 10-20 years.

I don’t think he’s going to be on the podium of this year’s Tour, but I think that’s in his future if he keeps improving his climbing (and if his team gives him some domestiques for the high stuff). He may prove strong enough to actually win a GT some day, depending on trends in course design.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Quintana is fresh, Landa is fresh, Bala is fresh
Froome is after Giro
Make him suffer
Not for this stage, for this week
The rest is silence

Landa fresh??? Do we just ignore the fact that he was eating tarmac yesterday

Yes

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Quintana is fresh, Landa is fresh, Bala is fresh
Froome is after Giro
Make him suffer
Not for this stage, for this week
The rest is silence

Froome is fresh, he used the Giro as preparation for the Tour, he just happened to win it as well.

He was using last Tour as a preparation for Vuelta then Vuelta as a prep for Giro then Giro for this Tour and now at last he is ready 100%.

 

[Jano]

Re: Re:

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

Seems like a good shout to me as it's their most productive hope of getting anything from the stage. Wonder whether we will get an epic Sagan showboating for fun show or if his inability to make the difference on the cobbles shows he needs to recharge the batteries and wait a few days.

One certainty is De Gendt will try to make the move and any climber out of the GC has a big chance to lay the foundations for a polka dot jersey challenge.

The Glieres climb looks really fun for us but may well be too far out on day one for the mountains to spur the peloton into full action.

It would not surprise me to see Sagan in a breakaway going for 20 points. It's just 29km to the sprint.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Yeah, Valverde is not a good comparison really. Yeah, Jungels is versatile, but he also reminds me much more of Dumoulin. Looking forward to see what level he is on climbing-wise.

Thanks, to be honest I wasn't following him closely until this year. That Luxembourg jersey is easy to spot.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

yes, this stage is condiderably harder than a traditional opening mountain stage with a finish after downhill. froome and thomas are hardly keen to attack by themselves, movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team. hopefully pelizzo alonside with izaguirre bros are going come to the fore and catapult Nibs at Col du Romme and bardet / yates join him.

This is the main point to me... Movistar as a great team to mountains, and i´m saying this every year... If you want to beat Froome you have to put him isolated... In the last two climbs Soler and Amador has to try drop the sky train, even if they drop too... Then it´s up to Landa and Quintana to go head to head with the others favourites... Valverde, that is a tremendous Cyclist but not a top contender to me ( a top 10 ok, but not a top 3), should in the beginning of the lst climb to acelerate and drop the 15/20 guys that should be there, and then Quintana and Landa have to try to drop froome, but Valverde normally is in a GT to make a good classification and even if i think he is not going to do what he can, anda what he should do, that is going to expose the other leaders from the team... Teams seem to not understand what is the sky plan/train every year, and if they don´t sacrifice one top guy, it´s dificult to do carnage to Froome. Sky has a better plan to me. And thast´s why they normally win. They focous in Froome, and do the job well done... Movistar this year could do it, but i think Valverde is not going to sacrifice for the other, he is going to do is own race and try a top 10 or maybe top 7...

That way Movistar will ruin their main advantage, numbers in GC.
The best way to derail Sky train isn't riding a hard tempo, but constant attacks and changes of the rhythm which forces their main domestiques to chase hard. And that is only possible if a rider who goes up the road is a GC threat, that's why all 3 need to stay high in the GC as long as possible.
I think they will try to ride similar to what they did at Catalunya this year, or what CSC did in 2008.

That is the best way, I agree, but Sky domestiques are by no means forced to chase hard. They progressively increase tempo which usually results in the attacker being reeled in. If not, Froome or G will make a latter attack and join Landa or Quintana at the front.
This might not happen tomorrow, but history of the past 5 years has taught us to incline towards this reasoning.

 

[Lequack]

Sky are told not to believe what they see, but only trust the power meter.

 

[Ataraxus]

The cobbled stage results showed that Movistar's move to sacrifice rouleurs and Time Trialists in favor of climbers was the winning one.
Half way up the final climbs of this second week I expect Movi to have 5 men and Sky 4.
AND Soler+Amador+Valverde >> Poels + Bernal