Le Tour de France 2011 - the big one is coming

[Boeing]

please give OP a sticky before he wets himself

 

[masking_agent]

stage 1: totally flat until a cat.4 finish - 2,4km @ 4,8%. May as well not watch until the final climb.

stage 2: TTT.

stage 3: totally flat

stage 4: almost totally flat until a cat.3 finish - 2,2km @ 6,5%. May as well not watch until just before the final climb.

stage 5: totally flat

stage 6: mostly flat, a bit rolling. A small, uncategorised climb (considering climbs of 2km @ 3% get categorised in the Tour that doesn't fill me with confidence) less than 2km from the end. If we're lucky, it'll be like the Tropea stage of the Giro.

stage 7: totally flat

stage 8: oh hey look! A climb! What the hell is one of those? Don't worry though, we've made sure to only have a short one at the end, cos we were terrified that there'd be gaps on the GC before week 3 and we're trying to artificially engineer a close finish again.

stage 9: rolling stage. Quite a few climbs but a flattish finish. Probably a reduced sprint or a break is allowed to go and take yellow ahead of the mountains.

stage 10: mostly flat but maybe the sprinters will be made to work.

stage 11: totally flat

thanks for posting. No drama until well into week 2 then.
I think its once again between Andy and Alberto. I haven't seen anything from Basso nor anyone else to really grab the climbs and go for the kill. But I would love someone out of no where to put both Bertie and Andy under pressure in the mountains. A rider like Gesink maybe ?

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert should win 1, 4 and 8. Possibly 9 too, which seems like it may go up at the end.

Sadly, with no time bonuses, he may not wear Yellow beyond the TTT, congrats to the GC contender whose team gets 1st in the TTT, Yellow until stage 12 almost guaranteed unless OPL and maybe a couple of other teams are close.

It would have been good if the Pinerolo stage had some tougher climbing, as the final ramp and descent may have been interesting. Phil is probably a chance to win this one too! Otherwise there's no big descent finish, which is disappointing. The Aubisque (aka 2nd rest day) could have been a selective descent finish, or canned altogether.



Or ridden easily like the Tourmalet stage last year (don't remember completely, but can't remember an insane pace, at least from the front of the peloton).

Well, Gilbert did take 21 seconds in a sprint on Bert de Waele so it's possible to create some gap between his contenders(obviously no 21 seconds)

I don't think OLO will do too bad in the TTT. It should be possible, it's going to be hard, but possible.

 

[Frosty]

Well, Gilbert did take 21 seconds in a sprint on Bert de Waele so it's possible to create some gap between his contenders(obviously no 21 seconds)

I don't think OLO will do too bad in the TTT. It should be possible, it's going to be hard, but possible.

They will have Gilbert, Greipel, Lang (i assume), Greipel's lead out men (HTC guys who came with him?). VDB will probably do ok as long as he doesnt fall off, then his mountain guys (no idea who). So OLO shouldnt do that badly - they'll concede enough time to the big teams to mean that Gilbert falls behind them. Maybe the cumulative time-gaps could narrow that quite a lot though if he is winning all the uphill finishes in the first 9 days.

Going on form, HTC will probably win the TTT although Garmin, Leopard, Sky should all do well too. If HTC win then who would be in yellow? Wouldnt be Cavendish looking at the stage 1 finish so maybe Martin or Velits? If a HTCer does get yellow then it could make tough work for the HTC boys in the first 9 days.

 

[El Pistolero]

They will have Gilbert, Greipel, Lang (i assume), Greipel's lead out men (HTC guys who came with him?). VDB will probably do ok as long as he doesnt fall off, then his mountain guys (no idea who). So OLO shouldnt do that badly - they'll concede enough time to the big teams to mean that Gilbert falls behind them. Maybe the cumulative time-gaps could narrow that quite a lot though if he is winning all the uphill finishes in the first 9 days.

Going on form, HTC will probably win the TTT although Garmin, Leopard, Sky should all do well too. If HTC win then who would be in yellow? Wouldnt be Cavendish looking at the stage 1 finish so maybe Martin or Velits? If a HTCer does get yellow then it could make tough work for the HTC boys in the first 9 days.

Sieberg is his leadout. I think vanendert will be in support of VDB. They really don't have mountain goats, but they don't need to as they'll never have to control the race in the mountains.

 

[Frosty]

As I enjoy both the sprint stages and mountains, I enjoy this route.
EXCEPT STAGE 13. What is the deal with the Aubisque??

This year:

Last year:

Last year could have been an awesome stage, had it been done in reverse.
Thor Hushovd should not be getting points at the end of a mountain stage!! Enough said.
Obviously Prudhomme has a fascination with the Aubisque.
I guess in the stage this year you'll get one of the usual guys winning: Fedrigo, Casar, Voeckler, Cunego, LL Sanchez - you know, those guys.
Unless someone wants to race it like the Madeleine, I doubt we'll see anything here.

Could have turned right just before Ayzac-Ost and gone up the Hautacam.

You're right on the likely suspects to win this stage - i sometimes think these sort of stages are put in to give a good chance of a French winner. Its similar in some ways to the stages won by Casar and Voeckler last year, although not as tough.

I think people will give it a go on the climb to see if any of the main contenders are struggling after the previous day's climbs. Always the chance of that but more likely that there is a regrouping.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I thought the climbs were at the end so Gilbert would look to wait for then rather than go in a break away?

Looking at the letour site all the profiles are now up, im sure there were just a few mountain stages available last time i looked.

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/COURSE/fr/le_parcours.html

No last km yet though.

Climbs are backloaded in the route. But I don't think Gilbert will be making an assault on the overall GC of KoM. I think the first half is more suited for him. You think he'll go for GC of the KoM?

 

[Frosty]

Climbs are backloaded in the route. But I don't think Gilbert will be making an assault on the overall GC of KoM. I think the first half is more suited for him. You think he'll go for GC of the KoM?

No, breakdown in communication i think. I meant he will wait until the end of the stage where the climbs are, rather than go in a breakaway and waste lots of energy. Let the break go, then allow the domestiques of his and other teams to pull the break back while he saves energy for the end.

What he does when the proper mountain stages start is a good question. Probably look to save energy, maybe put in a breakaway attempt, maybe try and follow the leaders on one of the big days to see how well he can do, support VDB etc. Not sure how he'll do in the points competition, he'll probably try and be in ther jersey for a while if he can. Difficult for OLO to put both him and Greipel up for the flat sprints though so im guessing he will lose out in it.

 

[roundabout]

Nice. Last kms or out for all stages except MTFs.

Stage 6

Slightly easier than I thought it would be (I was expecting a shorter steeper climb)

Stage 8

Okay, but only last 1.5km will be decisive.

Stage 9

Nice. Harder than 2004?

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

No, breakdown in communication i think. I meant he will wait until the end of the stage where the climbs are, rather than go in a breakaway and waste lots of energy. Let the break go, then allow the domestiques of his and other teams to pull the break back while he saves energy for the end.

What he does when the proper mountain stages start is a good question. Probably look to save energy, maybe put in a breakaway attempt, maybe try and follow the leaders on one of the big days to see how well he can do, support VDB etc. Not sure how he'll do in the points competition, he'll probably try and be in ther jersey for a while if he can. Difficult for OLO to put both him and Greipel up for the flat sprints though so im guessing he will lose out in it.

Gotcha! Interesting question of tactical nature, part of what makes cycling interesting. I think in a break he could save enough energy, rather than wait for the end (e.g. on stage 4 with that hill before the finish).

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Hope everyone here know that Vino will attack everyone and win the whole thing right?

(btw, my first ever post in here, be nice to me)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Going on form, HTC will probably win the TTT although Garmin, Leopard, Sky should all do well too. If HTC win then who would be in yellow? Wouldnt be Cavendish looking at the stage 1 finish so maybe Martin or Velits? If a HTCer does get yellow then it could make tough work for the HTC boys in the first 9 days.

It isn't work they wouldn't have done anyway in the pursuit of sprint finishes.

 

[Gloin22]

I think sky will win the TT. They targeting the TT strongly and will preapre a lot for that according to the DS.

 

[Frosty]

It isn't work they wouldn't have done anyway in the pursuit of sprint finishes.

True to some degree but normally you would hope that the yellow jersey wearer's team would give you some help. If you are that team then you wont get that help. Also, on the uphill finishes that dont help Cavendish they will have to do work instead of having a quiet day. Other teams will give them some help, ie those who fancy their chances of winning the stage but they may still have work to do early on.

 

[jens_attacks]

Hope everyone here know that Vino will attack everyone and win the whole thing right?

(btw, my first ever post in here, be nice to me)

hey.
that's the best way to post for the first time on these forums.vino is worshipped here.let's all get ready for a fabulous tour.vino already had a very good training regime in tenerife.he will tear the race apart no doubt.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I just watched a video on Rabosport.nl about the altitude camp Gesink, LL Sanchez, Barredo and Garate had.

According to trainer Delahaye they do a test the last day on the Alto de Monachil (spelling?), like they do every year after altitude camp. It provides a base of comparison to previous years. He says the data indicates that the level of this year is higher than last year yet again. So Gesink is still improving and they do another altitude camp after the Dauphine. I hope that he is on the right track and not peaking too early again.

 

[icefire]

True to some degree but normally you would hope that the yellow jersey wearer's team would give you some help. If you are that team then you wont get that help. Also, on the uphill finishes that dont help Cavendish they will have to do work instead of having a quiet day. Other teams will give them some help, ie those who fancy their chances of winning the stage but they may still have work to do early on.

Then they should just do like Astana in the 2010 Giro stage to L'Aquila

 

[Sophistic]

I just watched a video on Rabosport.nl about the altitude camp Gesink, LL Sanchez, Barredo and Garate had.

According to trainer Delahaye they do a test the last day on the Alto de Monachil (spelling?), like they do every year after altitude camp. It provides a base of comparison to previous years. He says the data indicates that the level of this year is higher than last year yet again. So Gesink is still improving and they do another altitude camp after the Dauphine. I hope that he is on the right track and not peaking too early again.

They are doing an altitude camp after the Dauphine?Not a smart move as it can take quite a while to recover from an altitude stay. You either race (a one day event) right after coming back to sea level to benefit from the elevated blood levels or you wait a couple of weeks.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

They are doing an altitude camp after the Dauphine?Not a smart move as it can take quite a while to recover from an altitude stay. You either race (a one day event) right after coming back to sea level to benefit from the elevated blood levels or you wait a couple of weeks.

Actually many TDF contendors do the same you know (and did the same in the past).

You can do that because there's still 1,5 week rest until the TDF, and the hardest stages in the TDF come in week 2/3. So it's perfectly sensible to do such.

 

[El Pistolero]

Let's hope he doesn't lose a minute in the sprint on stage 1 and 4 then

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He follows the exact same preparation as Jurgen Vandenbroeck did last year... so erm...

 

[El Pistolero]

He follows the exact same preparation as Jurgen Vandenbroeck did last year... so erm...

Let's hope he doesn't lose a minute in the sprint as well

I think the GT contenders better prepare them self to be up front on every finish that suits Gilbert. Relatively big gaps could be opened up just because of lack of attention or somewhat having a bad day. Especially in the first week when many GT boys are still to reach their peak. There will be at least some GT boys that will be caught napping and lose some valuable time. When He is in top form the second won't make it on the photo.

Ps: It's Jurgen van den Broeck

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I can't see any more gaps than seconds appear on climbs like that. So why worry. Seconds don't make the difference, only for the win, and neither Jvdb nor Gesink will contend for the win unless Contador and Andy fall in a ravine or something

 

[El Pistolero]

I can't see any more gaps than seconds appear on climbs like that. So why worry. Seconds don't make the difference, only for the win, and neither Jvdb nor Gesink will contend for the win unless Contador and Andy fall in a ravine or something

Now I don't know how the climbs compare to last year's Vuelta, but people were surprised by the large gap opened up on the first stage won by Him.

Seconds hardly make the difference for the win, but between place 4,5,6 the battle is sometimes fiercer. And every second lost, is lost.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

plenty of mountains and a 42,5km TT this Tour. I really don't think some tiny hills are going to make the difference

for example in the Tirreno Gesink was terrible on the hills and still finish 2nd due to the TTT and the TT. So I don't think it will worry him for the TDF