Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[airstream]

+ 1000 (10char)

Thanks for another reasoned opinion. One of 7000.

Froome, as has been mentioned, is still finding his way, impressively, to the top step of a grand tour podium. While the Tour was an impressive performance by him, I have to continously remind you of who wasn't there (Contador, Andy Schleck,), of who was there but not at their best (Evans, Valverde), and those that crashed out (Hesjedal, Frank Schleck, Samu) all of which could have altered the eventual outcome. Froome himself indicated during (or after) the Vuelta that the constant attacks/changes in rhythm dictated by Contador, Purito and Valverde put him in a bit of difficulty. Is one within reason to anticipate the same or even more so at the Tour? Van Garderan and Pinot will likely be improved which could be worrisome for Sky in the mountains. They won't have the same one-two punch if Wiggins does the Giro with the intention of winning it.

You vastly overrate factor palmares and winning experience. It give a few points, but rarely becomes crucial. Besides, people like to dwell on stereotypes and improvized wonderland of domination. Contador and Schleck were untouchably strongest climbers in 2010. All is flux, nothing stays still. All hierarchies and relations of forces are flexible like material. Froome didn't beat Evans and Valverde in the Tour — he incinerated, bulldozed them, working for Wiggins and not showing what he was really capable of. And to suppose that he is anyway weaker than Contador and Schleck just because they weren't there is kind of reluctance to handle new things.

Why do you think Froome is so dependent on team like Wiggins. To me, Peña Cabarga and Planche des Belles Filles convincingly showed the man can drop anyone. Disagree?

 

[ferryman]

Thanks for another reasoned opinion. One of 7000.


You vastly overrate factor palmares and winning experience. It give a few points, but rarely becomes crucial. Besides, people like to dwell on stereotypes and improvized wonderland of domination. Contador and Schleck were untouchably strongest climbers in 2010. All is flux, nothing stays still. All hierarchies and relations of forces are flexible like material. Froome didn't beat Evans and Valverde in the Tour — he incinerated, bulldozed them, working for Wiggins and not showing what he was really capable of. And to suppose that he is anyway weaker than Contador and Schleck just because they weren't there is kind of reluctance to handle new things.

Why do you think Froome is so dependent on team like Wiggins. To me, Peña Cabarga and Planche des Belles Filles convincingly showed the man can drop anyone. Disagree?

A 3/4 fit Contador bulldozered Froome a few months ago. Dismantled him. Contador/Schleck going at it after their respective teams have destroyed the Sky train and Froome is nowhere.

Disagree? I would like to hear your informed opinion why you think Froome can drop Contadorin particular, given it was only a few months ago he was swiped aside as an irrelevance against him.

 

[airstream]

[/B]

A 3/4 fit Contador bulldozered Froome a few months ago. Dismantled him. Contador/Schleck going at it after their respective teams have destroyed the Sky train and Froome is nowhere.

Disagree? I would like to hear your informed opinion why you think Froome can drop Contadorin particular, given it was only a few months ago he was swiped aside as an irrelevance against him.

I strongly disagree. Despite on sameness of results everyonce in a while, it is the sport in which very subtle details may rock the boat to one of the sides. About what 75% can we talk in cycling where seconds decide a GT winner now and again??? I don't want to draw clinic parallels, but lack of 25% is a gulf. Cosmos. Imo relatively speaking there were a 99% Contador and 101% Purito that overturned picture so drastically. When you talk about 75% fitness, you sort of take Purito's (Valverde's) right to progress as compared with Сontador and reduce the gap. But heck they are all human beings and nothing is permanent. I just offer to put up with it at least.

I don't try to belittle Contador's attacking bearing-down in the Vuelta, but Froome wouldn't have won the race, even if Contador hadn't participated and everyone sees it. His result rather characterizes his inability to ride 2 GTs the same way [which is completely normal because nowadays guys can not drive in hematocrit up to 70 as it happened 15-20 years ago] than his weakness against climbing in an antsy way. The last is totally far-fetched.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Airstream is supporting Froome now is it just to troll (since you said you dont know what a troll is) is it just to argue with velascos's fans?

 

[airstream]

airstream is trying to look into the matter without redundant dramatism.. and fanatism.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

to-may-to, to-mah-to.

 

[greenedge]

I shall say one of Contador or Froome.

The first week also does not seem hard enough but riders like Evans must be considered. Him, Andy, Nibali (if he rides) and Samu are most likely to make the podium.

I also hope Rolland, Pinot, TJVG, Hesjedal and Valverde can go well.
If Scarponi cannot ride the Giro i also think he could go well here.

 

[Ferminal]

[/B]

A 3/4 fit Contador bulldozered Froome a few months ago. Dismantled him. Contador/Schleck going at it after their respective teams have destroyed the Sky train and Froome is nowhere.

Disagree? I would like to hear your informed opinion why you think Froome can drop Contadorin particular, given it was only a few months ago he was swiped aside as an irrelevance against him.

Evans made Contador **** on Galibier once too.

Terrible analysis to consider a consecutive GT to be peak form.

Froome must be desperately hoping Bart de Clercq doesn't ride the Tour next year, given how they were trading blows at the end of the Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

I strongly disagree. Despite on sameness of results everyonce in a while, it is the sport in which very subtle details may rock the boat to one of the sides. About what 75% can we talk in cycling where seconds decide a GT winner now and again??? I don't want to draw clinic parallels, but lack of 25% is a gulf. Cosmos. Imo relatively speaking there were a 99% Contador and 101% Purito that overturned picture so drastically. When you talk about 75% fitness, you sort of take Purito's (Valverde's) right to progress as compared with Сontador and reduce the gap. But heck they are all human beings and nothing is permanent. I just offer to put up with it at least.

I don't try to belittle Contador's attacking bearing-down in the Vuelta, but Froome wouldn't have won the race, even if Contador hadn't participated and everyone sees it. His result rather characterizes his inability to ride 2 GTs the same way [which is completely normal because nowadays guys can not drive in hematocrit up to 70 as it happened 15-20 years ago] than his weakness against climbing in an antsy way. The last is totally far-fetched.

For once I kind of agree with you. I think Froome's form at the Tour was kind of overrated however, on la toussuire he struggled to follow Wiggins initially after Nibali attacked for a second time

 

[airstream]

For once I kind of agree with you. I think Froome's form at the Tour was kind of overrated however, on la toussuire he struggled to follow Wiggins initially after Nibali attacked for a second time

And what? Everything is measured by perfect form and a rider is not entitled to feel difficulty for 10-15 seconds as Froome did or what? What's the difference if then Froome kept himself together and was ready to sprint on the finish line? Damn, how dare you talk about 'overrated form' when the guy worked on the front so much? Anyone who works so much is doomed to drop from the wheel almost always. Absolutely anyone. Even the most dreamlike mountain domestique like say Heras in 2002.

 

[Ferminal]

on la toussuire he struggled to follow Wiggins initially after Nibali attacked for a second time

That is just what happens with Froome (from what we've seen so far) and is the biggest question mark moving forward. He is far from consistent, starts slow - like a more erratic version of Sastre. A Vuelta and the 2012 Tour were not the greatest indicators of his limits climbing mountains on harder days.

Can he handle the length of the Ventoux stage, the constant efforts on the way to Le Grand-Bornand? Plus there's no high altitudes in the Tour. If he's going to falter, that's where it will happen. But for all we know it might become his greatest strength.

Otherwise, single climb, short stage - he is clearly in the top3.

To say that he will get smashed on the climbs is to say that Verbier Bertie or Zoncolan Andy will reappear to torment the Tour, no one can guarantee that.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Airstream is supporting Froome now is it just to troll (since you said you dont know what a troll is) is it just to argue with velascos's fans?

Lol Zaman we will never know I guess.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Airstream is supporting Froome now is it just to troll (since you said you dont know what a troll is) is it just to argue with velascos's fans?

he's trying to make people hate froome like he did with andy, although andy didn't need aistream

 

[airstream]

What can you retort directly on racing part?

 

[LaFlorecita]

he's trying to make people hate froome like he did with andy, although andy didn't need aistream

Lol hilarious

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

What can you retort directly on racing part?

Contador and Schleck are better climbers. If the route was more balanced I'd give Froome a chance, but it's a climber's course with hardly any flat time trialing. They don't need to go all CERA on him to finish ahead in GC.

 

[airstream]

I feel like conservatism prospers inside of most of you...

Andy is a bit lightweight as an universal GT rider because of lack of TT skills. Froome is from Armstrong's pedigree in terms of versality. Great TT, tremendous strength on any hills and stunningly 'light' legs uphill due to the fact that the man works using relatively small gears in order to conserve energy. Surely the matters we are dissecting are highly controversial, but not to look up to Froome so much... It's just astounding.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I feel like conservatism prospers inside of most of you...

Andy is a bit lightweight as an universal GT rider because of lack of TT skills. Froome is from Armstrong's pedigree in terms of versality. Great TT, tremendous strength on any hills and stunningly 'light' legs uphill due to the fact that the man works using relatively small gears in order to conserve energy. Surely the matters we are dissecting are highly controversial, but not to look up to Froome so much... It's just astounding.

Froome may be versatile, but the route isn't really. TT skills won't matter that much as there is just the one, sub 35 km ITT for the specialists.

 

[Angliru]

I feel like conservatism prospers inside of most of you...

Andy is a bit lightweight as an universal GT rider because of lack of TT skills. Froome is from Armstrong's pedigree in terms of versality. Great TT, tremendous strength on any hills and stunningly 'light' legs uphill due to the fact that the man works using relatively small gears in order to conserve energy. Surely the matters we are dissecting are highly controversial, but not to look up to Froome so much... It's just astounding.

I'm rating him highly, just not as highly as you. For some reason that seriously bothers you as if me not sharing your opinion can't possibly be a rational and intelligent choice to make.

 

[Ferminal]

Froome may be versatile, but the route isn't really. TT skills won't matter that much as there is just the one, sub 35 km ITT for the specialists.

Probably not a lot between Froome and Contador for the TTs anyway, I'd almost lean Contador. Could still decide it though as you never know how the mountains will be ridden.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

So the route was unveiled. An extensive food for thought was received for an off-season. So here we go. What do you think on who will win based on route and any other assumptions?

Another Contador - Schleck showdown, but Valverde will not be far behind.

 

[ILovecycling]

Another Contador - Schleck showdown, but Valverde will not be far behind.

That would be awesome,I think he cant contest this duo,but I wish him Top5 and stages

 

[ferryman]

Probably not a lot between Froome and Contador for the TTs anyway, I'd almost lean Contador. Could still decide it though as you never know how the mountains will be ridden.

If the Vuelta is anything to go by, Contador will be going all out to eliminate Froome as early as possible. Andy better be in tip top form if he wants to survive this.

 

[ILovecycling]

If the Vuelta is anything to go by, Contador will be going all out to eliminate Froome as early as possible. Andy better be in tip top form if he wants to survive this.

Yes,I definitely agree.Ax3 all out from the bottom

 

[ferryman]

Yes,I definitely agree.Ax3 all out from the bottom

We can only dream