Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[The Hitch]

What??? Where is Purito?

at the Giro

 

[Pentacycle]

No stage in Italy, and no pending suspension. 2013 is this man's year:

Too bad Cobo was part of the poll option

 

[Dedelou]

I voted Froome because I hope Alberto will skip the tour

Are you planning to spirit him to some single cruise in the "Maldives" instead? He will be there and on fire.. everybody else riding for second

 

[Telmisartan new]

1.Contador
2.Andy Schleck
3.TJ

 

[Bexon30]

1.Contador
2.Andy Schleck
3.TJ

Looks likely to me could be separated by less than 2 minutes.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

And why is Cobo in the poll? Cobo will go down in history as an anonymous Vuelta winner that never did much else.

Active GT winner, so means he will probably for the rest of his career be trumped up as a threat to at least do something even if he's not likely to ever match anything like that level again.

After all, in two years at Abarcá (2010 and 2012) he has scored, combined, less than 20% of the number of points on CQ that he won solely for the Vuelta GC.

However, as to never doing much other than the 2011 Vuelta, there is:

3rd, 2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León
5th, 2007 GP Miguel Indurain
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco stage 1
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco stage 5
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco
8th, 2007 Liège-Bastogne-Liège
3rd, 2007 Subida a Urkiola
1st, 2008 Tour de France stage 10 (after Piepoli's DQ)
2nd, 2008 Subida a Urkiola
1st, 2008 Vuelta a Burgos stage 5
6th, 2008 Vuelta a Burgos
1st, 2008 Volta a Portugal stage 9
4th, 2008 Volta a Portugal
1st, 2009 Vuelta a Castilla y León stage 4
1st, 2009 Vuelta a España stage 19
10th, 2009 Vuelta a España
3rd, 2011 Vuelta a Burgos

It's not an amazing palmarès or anything, but I bet a lot of riders in the péloton would swap for Cobo's, even taking out the 2011 Vuelta.

 

[Afrank]

Active GT winner, so means he will probably for the rest of his career be trumped up as a threat to at least do something even if he's not likely to ever match anything like that level again.

After all, in two years at Abarcá (2010 and 2012) he has scored, combined, less than 20% of the number of points on CQ that he won solely for the Vuelta GC.

However, as to never doing much other than the 2011 Vuelta, there is:

3rd, 2007 Vuelta a Castilla y León
5th, 2007 GP Miguel Indurain
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco stage 1
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco stage 5
1st, 2007 Vuelta al País Vasco
8th, 2007 Liège-Bastogne-Liège
3rd, 2007 Subida a Urkiola
1st, 2008 Tour de France stage 10 (after Piepoli's DQ)
2nd, 2008 Subida a Urkiola
1st, 2008 Vuelta a Burgos stage 5
6th, 2008 Vuelta a Burgos
1st, 2008 Volta a Portugal stage 9
4th, 2008 Volta a Portugal
1st, 2009 Vuelta a Castilla y León stage 4
1st, 2009 Vuelta a España stage 19
10th, 2009 Vuelta a España
3rd, 2011 Vuelta a Burgos

It's not an amazing palmarès or anything, but I bet a lot of riders in the péloton would swap for Cobo's, even taking out the 2011 Vuelta.

I meant he won't do much else in the future, He'll be like Angel Casero or Aitor Gonzalez both of whom had the high point of their careers when they won the vuelta but never achieved anything as big after their vuelta wins.

 

[airstream]

I meant he won't do much else in the future, He'll be like Angel Casero or Aitor Gonzalez both of whom had the high point of their careers when they won the vuelta but never achieved anything as big after their vuelta wins.

Many things depends on suppliers, oddly enough. Based on the Vuelta, Unzue obviously made Juanjo go paniagua. But if Cobo puts himself right with Matxin, everything is possible.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Are you planning to spirit him to some single cruise in the "Maldives" instead? He will be there and on fire.. everybody else riding for second

Yeah.. a shame really

 

[Contadoraus Schlecks]

Andy.

It's just as suited to AS as it is AC. He is hitting peak years and will be hugely motivated after a terrible 2012.

As good as Froome was last year he could still lose a couple of mins to AS on the Alpe. Andy and AC will dominate the mountain finishes in the last 5-10km (after sky have done all the work whittling the peloton down) and Froome will not be able to live with the accelerations.

 

[K-0tic]

Looks like this one is perfect for AC. Expect Froome to get close though, given his last TdF.

 

[ferryman]

Looks like this one is perfect for AC. Expect Froome to get close though, given his last TdF.

What is it this with this Froome nonsesne? He is a spot player at best. When AC and Andy decide it is time to play next year he won't be near them.

 

[cineteq]

What is it this with this Froome nonsesne? He is a spot player at best. When AC and Andy decide it is time to play next year he won't be near them.

You're so outdated, you're so 2010! Saxo is not even a sure thing for the Tour, plus Contador's not the same guy he once was (see Vuelta 2012). And Andy? I guess other posters will fill you in.

 

[airstream]

A better rider theoretically always can hit the picture, no matter how strong others are. We should take note this.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

You're so outdated, you're so 2010! Saxo is not even a sure thing for the Tour, plus Contador's not the same guy he once was (see Vuelta 2012). And Andy? I guess other posters will fill you in.

AHHAHAHAHAHAHAH

I always wonder on what drugs you are

 

[Ferminal]

Yeh, they invited him to the presentation but will not invite him to the race.

 

[LaFlorecita]

AHHAHAHAHAHAHAH

I always wonder on what drugs you are

ASO know they need Alberto. They don't want another boring Tour.

 

[cineteq]

AHHAHAHAHAHAHAH

I always wonder on what drugs you are

It was my way of being nice to Saxo. I was just trying not to bring drugs, i.e. clinical stuff, DS or sponsors to the conversation. You need to practice your 'reading between the lines' skills.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

You're so outdated, you're so 2010! Saxo is not even a sure thing for the Tour, plus Contador's not the same guy he once was (see Vuelta 2012). And Andy? I guess other posters will fill you in.

Yes, because that was clearly representative and a good indication to see how good AC is.

Not saying we'll have the good old fashioned AC domination (although I hope and expect it anyway), but you can't just conclude he's not the same after he seemed to lack some endurence when coming too a GT having done only a small portion of the season.

 

[airstream]

Yes, because that was clearly representative and a good indication to see how good AC is.

Not saying we'll have the good old fashioned AC domination (although I hope and expect it anyway), but you can't just conclude he's not the same after he seemed to lack some endurence when coming too a GT having done only a small portion of the season.

How would you estimate Froome's preparedness in this regard? Going to conclude anything?
Do you admit that opponents might be not 'the same' too?

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

How would you estimate Froome's preparedness in this regard? Going to conclude anything?
Do you admit that opponents might be not 'the same' too?

is there anyone here that has ever said that Froome was at 100% this Vuelta?

 

[airstream]

is there anyone here that has ever said that Froome was at 100% this Vuelta?

that's implied constrainedly due to the fact that emphasis is focused on Contador and his form.

 

[Angliru]

that's implied constrainedly due to the fact that emphasis is focused on Contador and his form.

Actually you're the only person that seems to come to this conclusion. I'd say 98% of this forum concedes that Froome was feeling the effects of the Tour at the Vuelta and of course was not at his best. I think you've jumped ship. In your never ending quest/hope/dream to see Contador get his deserved comeuppance, you've now hitched your wagon to Froome, thinking he's your only chance of getting true satisfaction, this because you've apparently lost hope of the Schleck's ever being able to deliver the killer blow to Contador in a grand tour.

It shouldn't be too difficult to accept that based on Contador's record in the grand tours it's not surprising that he gets the benefit of the doubt more often when it comes to predicting who will be the favorite. He's a proven commodity.

Froome, as has been mentioned, is still finding his way, impressively, to the top step of a grand tour podium. While the Tour was an impressive performance by him, I have to continously remind you of who wasn't there (Contador, Andy Schleck,), of who was there but not at their best (Evans, Valverde), and those that crashed out (Hesjedal, Frank Schleck, Samu) all of which could have altered the eventual outcome. Froome himself indicated during (or after) the Vuelta that the constant attacks/changes in rhythm dictated by Contador, Purito and Valverde put him in a bit of difficulty. Is one within reason to anticipate the same or even more so at the Tour? Van Garderan and Pinot will likely be improved which could be worrisome for Sky in the mountains. They won't have the same one-two punch if Wiggins does the Giro with the intention of winning it.

 

[airstream]

Actually you're the only person that seems to come to this conclusion. I'd say 98% of this forum concedes that Froome was feeling the effects of the Tour at the Vuelta and of course was not at his best. I think you've jumped ship. In your never ending quest/hope/dream to see Contador get his deserved comeuppance, you've now hitched your wagon to Froome, thinking he's your only chance of getting true satisfaction, this because you've apparently lost hope of the Schleck's ever being able to deliver the killer blow to Contador in a grand tour.

It shouldn't be too difficult to accept that based on Contador's record in the grand tours it's not surprising that he gets the benefit of the doubt more often when it comes to predicting who will be the favorite. He's a proven commodity.

Froome, as has been mentioned, is still finding his way, impressively, to the top step of a grand tour podium. While the Tour was an impressive performance by him, I have to continously remind you of who wasn't there (Contador, Andy Schleck,), of who was there but not at their best (Evans, Valverde), and those that crashed out (Hesjedal, Frank Schleck, Samu) all of which could have altered the eventual outcome. Froome himself indicated during (or after) the Vuelta that the constant attacks/changes in rhythm dictated by Contador, Purito and Valverde put him in a bit of difficulty. Is one within reason to anticipate the same or even more so at the Tour? Van Garderan and Pinot will likely be improved which could be worrisome for Sky in the mountains. They won't have the same one-two punch if Wiggins does the Giro with the intention of winning it.

I just don't cease to amaze from 'when he's at 100%, nodody's in business' thoughts, because it's the most preposterous way of reasoning to base on. Actual palmares is the only criteria people pay attention to make their predictions? Of course not. Points are built on some subjective rates of riders' strength for the last 1-2-3 years.

Not, as I said previously I can follow sport without rooting for anyone. But to laugh from fan prejudices which are positioned like the only correct viewpoint is my intrinsic right. I think generally Froome is already than Contador. Surely you can operate with your notorious palmares argument, comparing Contador to the guy who rode the only GT for himself (while being in not very good form). It won't change anything.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Actually you're the only person that seems to come to this conclusion. I'd say 98% of this forum concedes that Froome was feeling the effects of the Tour at the Vuelta and of course was not at his best. I think you've jumped ship. In your never ending quest/hope/dream to see Contador get his deserved comeuppance, you've now hitched your wagon to Froome, thinking he's your only chance of getting true satisfaction, this because you've apparently lost hope of the Schleck's ever being able to deliver the killer blow to Contador in a grand tour.

It shouldn't be too difficult to accept that based on Contador's record in the grand tours it's not surprising that he gets the benefit of the doubt more often when it comes to predicting who will be the favorite. He's a proven commodity.

Froome, as has been mentioned, is still finding his way, impressively, to the top step of a grand tour podium. While the Tour was an impressive performance by him, I have to continously remind you of who wasn't there (Contador, Andy Schleck,), of who was there but not at their best (Evans, Valverde), and those that crashed out (Hesjedal, Frank Schleck, Samu) all of which could have altered the eventual outcome. Froome himself indicated during (or after) the Vuelta that the constant attacks/changes in rhythm dictated by Contador, Purito and Valverde put him in a bit of difficulty. Is one within reason to anticipate the same or even more so at the Tour? Van Garderan and Pinot will likely be improved which could be worrisome for Sky in the mountains. They won't have the same one-two punch if Wiggins does the Giro with the intention of winning it.

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