Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[theyoungest]

Tourmalet and Madeleine, indeed. On both climbs Gesink rode on the front for large parts of the climb.

BTW please don't start another "Gesink is the biggest loser cycling has ever seen" discussion, Ryo. The point was that Menchov suffered from Gesink being the coming man. Well, he absolutely didn't, to the contrary.

 

[Parrulo]

can you show it, because I don't remember it anymore

gesink paced menchov pretty much all the way up.

 

[Afrank]

what? you are saying samu is having the same amount of luck as nibali? or a number of others I could say.

No, I am saying that luck doesn't play any more a role in Nibali's results than they do when any other rider gets good results. When a rider has a year of bad luck like Sanchez has had with crashes and injuries then luck plays a much larger role for them. So you are right that for different riders luck can play a larger or smaller role. But I don't think Nibali's good results and high place in the rankings is just because his is luckier than all the other riders.

 

[Netserk]

No, I am saying that luck doesn't play any more a role in Nibali's results than they do when any other rider gets good results. When a rider has a year of bad luck like Sanchez has had with crashes and injuries then luck plays a much larger role for them. So you are right that for different riders luck can play a larger or smaller role. But I don't think Nibali's good results and high place in the rankings is just because his is luckier than all the other riders.

So Contador was lucky in 2008?

 

[Afrank]

So Contador was lucky in 2008?

You'll have to explain what you mean there, how does that relate to what I said?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

No, I am saying that luck doesn't play any more a role in Nibali's results than they do when any other rider gets good results. When a rider has a year of bad luck like Sanchez has had with crashes and injuries then luck plays a much larger role for them. So you are right that for different riders luck can play a larger or smaller role. But I don't think Nibali's good results and high place in the rankings is just because his is luckier than all the other riders.

nibali has had way more luck in opponents crashing out, or injuries by others or horrible starting fields in general like the vuelta he won.

 

[shades1]

i really want andy schleck to win it but we just dont know how the injury has affected him , if he has come out of it well and is able to train to full capacity there is still a hope that the best is still yet to come from him .

the route for 2013 looks to be a climbers paradise and lets be honest here there are only a few riders that can actually win the race so if he can come into the race fit and on form i believe he still has a great chance to win .

 

[LaFlorecita]

i really want andy schleck to win it but we just dont know how the injury has affected him , if he has come out of it well and is able to train to full capacity there is still a hope that the best is still yet to come from him .

the route for 2013 looks to be a climbers paradise and lets be honest here there are only a few riders that can actually win the race so if he can come into the race fit and on form i believe he still has a great chance to win .

There is Alberto who can match if not beat him in the mountains and can beat him in the tt. Maybe Andy can win if something happens to Alberto.

 

[The Hitch]

i really want andy schleck to win it

Why in gods name would anyone want that.

 

[burning]

Why in gods name would anyone want that.

To be honest, that would be really funny but it is impossible to happen though

 

[ferryman]

Why in gods name would anyone want that.

Because some of us on here like him Also, an in form Andy = Alberto's biggest challenge.

 

[Afrank]

nibali has had way more luck in opponents crashing out, or injuries by others or horrible starting fields in general like the vuelta he won.

I'd agree with you on the Vuelta, it wasn't the strongest field. But in his other most notable results (the 2010 and 2011 Giro, LBL this year, MSR this year, Tirreno) he did have good fields.

I just don't think a riders results or high ranking should be put down as happening just because the rider got lucky.

 

[movingtarget]

I'd agree with you on the Vuelta, it wasn't the strongest field. But in his other most notable results (the 2010 and 2011 Giro, LBL this year, MSR this year, Tirreno) he did have good fields.

I just don't think a riders results or high ranking should be put down as happening just because the rider got lucky.

There is no doubt that Nibali is in the top 10 GC riders in the world at the moment. Possibly top 5. We can't keep waiting for riders like Kreuziger and Gesink to get the results they previously promised while Nibali has managed to do it. He has definitely improved while others have not. Not sure how Nibali would go against riders like Rodriguez and Ryder at the moment as he did not compete against them last year in a GT. Also hard to rate him against either of the Schleck brothers as he has not competed in a GT against them for a while either. As for top 10 riders based on all events, probably not, even though his rides at Tirreno, Milan and Liege were very good. Have to be close.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I agree with hitch and at ferryman why would anyone like Andy

 

[The Hitch]

. Also hard to rate him against either of the Schleck brothers as he has not competed in a GT against them for a while either.

Actually the comparison with the schlecks is very easy, i have no idea what you see so hard about it.

Andy is clearly in a different league. You don't need some cyclist rating machine to show that AS is the 2nd best gt rider around and that guys like nibali wiggins purito ryder, simply don't have his ability.

As for the comparison with Frank, its a little bit closer but generally all round the younger man has far more qualities.

 

[movingtarget]

Actually the comparison with the schlecks is very easy, i have no idea what you see so hard about it.

Andy is clearly in a different league. You don't need some cyclist rating machine to show that AS is the 2nd best gt rider around and that guys like nibali wiggins purito ryder, simply don't have his ability.

As for the comparison with Frank, its a little bit closer but generally all round the younger man has far more qualities.

If that is true why has hasn't Andy ever won a GT on the road ? In 2010 he was definitely the second best GT rider in the world, in 2011 possibly but is he still ? Up until this year Evans could also be seen as the second best GT rider in the world. As a climber I agree I would rate Andy ahead of the riders you mentioned but as a performer over three weeks on all stages including TTs and intermediate stages I think the comparisons are not so clear cut. Would he still finish ahead of Nibali, Froome, Wiggins and Rodriguez now. The fact is if Schleck was good enough he should have beaten Contador in 2010 even without the dropped chain. Some people think the same of the Tour in 2011. Is he squandering his talent or is he just not good enough ? Apart from Rodriguez who has podiumed his past two GTs, all of the other riders you mentioned have won a GT on the road. He obviously believes he can still beat Contador because he keeps racing against him and he definitely believed he would beat Evans as in 2010 he did not even mention Evans as one of the riders to beat that year, and in 2011 once again it was Contador who he seemed to think was his only rival.

 

[Ferminal]

Purito would go pretty close to (2011) Andy on the Tour 2013 route. I'd probably have him ahead.

 

[The Hitch]

If that is true why has hasn't Andy ever won a GT on the road ? In 2010 he was definitely the second best GT rider in the world, in 2011 possibly but is he still ? Up until this year Evans could also be seen as the second best GT rider in the world. As a climber I agree I would rate Andy ahead of the riders you mentioned but as a performer over three weeks on all stages including TTs and intermediate stages I think the comparisons are not so clear cut. Would he still finish ahead of Nibali, Froome, Wiggins and Rodriguez now. The fact is if Schleck was good enough he should have beaten Contador in 2010 even without the dropped chain. Some people think the same of the Tour in 2011. Is he squandering his talent or is he just not good enough ? Apart from Rodriguez who has podiumed his past two GTs, all of the other riders you mentioned have won a GT on the road. He obviously believes he can still beat Contador because he keeps racing against him and he definitely believed he would beat Evans as in 2010 he did not even mention Evans as one of the riders to beat that year, and in 2011 once again it was Contador who he seemed to think was his only rival.

It is maybe a blem on Andy's career that he failed to beat The Great One in 2010, but he still dropped at will every other rider in the race. There is just no way nibali had he been there would have posed any sort of.challenge to either. He was struggling as it was with scarponi even though he had a 2 minute head start.

And its also a blem on his career that he doesn't try much in the season, but when he is on form, be it in a gt or a classic, nibali and the like don't stand a chance.

 

[airstream]

Such a philosophical positioning and such a narrow-mindedness. Apparently, 2009 and 2010 is an eternal benchmark and everything which doesn't match it will be always handled like something wrong, oblique and 'lower-leagued'.

 

[The Hitch]

Such a philosophical positioning and such a narrow-mindedness. Apparently, 2009 and 2010 is an eternal benchmark and everything which doesn't match it will be always handled like something wrong, oblique and 'lower-leagued'.

Lol all of a sudden you don't rate Andy schleck. Go figure.

 

[airstream]

Lol all of a sudden you don't rate Andy schleck. Go figure.

I prefer to base on suspense. There are too many questions in order to build on what was in 2009, 2010... All that collides with the questions like 'who is stronger purito '12 or schleck '11' or so. Answers to these questions don't exist. But I just don't understand why a rider [Nibali, Purito or anyone else] who vastly improved is considered knowingly and beforehand weaker than Schleck and Contador just on the base of the fact he got 3rd in the Tour without competing against them. Armstrong began from a weak Tour field too and smashed everyone even in a more snorting fashion year later.

What does lol imply? Do you offer me to consider Andy the 1st favorite for the Tour?

 

[ILovecycling]

I prefer to base on suspense. There are too many questions in order to build on what was in 2009, 2010... All that collides with the questions like 'who is stronger purito '12 or schleck '11' or so. Answers to these questions don't exist. But I just don't understand why a rider [Nibali, Purito or anyone else] who vastly improved is considered knowingly and beforehand weaker than Schleck and Contador just on the base of the fact he got 3rd in the Tour without competing against them. Armstrong began from a weak Tour field too and smashed everyone even in a more snorting fashion year later.

What does lol imply? Do you offer me to consider Andy the 1st favorite for the Tour?

Schleck and Contador are favourites for most of cycling fans.Whats wrong about it?What is not clear about it?They was and ARE two best climbers cos they have IT.Purito and Nibali dont have IT,oh god its so simple

 

[LaFlorecita]

Schleck and Contador are favourites for most of cycling fans.Whats wrong about it?What is not clear about it?They was and ARE two best climbers cos they have IT.Purito and Nibali dont have IT,oh god its so simple

Don't argue with him lol

 

[airstream]

Schleck and Contador are favourites for most of cycling fans.Whats wrong about it?What is not clear about it?They was and ARE two best climbers cos they have IT.Purito and Nibali dont have IT,oh god its so simple

It was simple in 2010.

OK, how does it match a notorious theory that riding 2 gts in a year is impossible? This year Giro was easier than last year one exactly by the stage to Etna not more, however, Rodriguez fired at both GTs. Purito didn't have a meaningful physical reserve in comparison to Contador, but they were equal on the climbs. But after that he doesn't have it, right?

 

[Eshnar]

It was simple in 2010.

OK, how does it match a notorious theory that riding 2 gts in a year is impossible?

no, riding 2 Gts back to back is impossible.
Giro-Tour --> impossible
Tour-Vuelta --> impossible
Giro-Vuelta --> possible and successfully done various times.