Liège-Bastogne-Liège: April 28th, 2019

[tobydawq]

Re:

https://www.cyclingstage.com/liege-bastogne-liege-2019/favourites-lbl-2019/

I don't know if I should laugh or not of this favourite ranking. It's the same site that had Mohoric as a 5 star favourite for MSR (not that Mohoric didn't impact that race, but still).

I think you should laugh. Derisively.

Matthews as the primary favourite. Dear god.

 

[The Chicken]

Enric Mas will be the surprise winner of this bicycle race.

 

[Velolover2]

Like last year, Matthews wouldn't survive if the climbs are raced hard enough.

But if the preceding hills are soft-pedalled and he gets dropped by 20-25 seconds by Julian and Jakob on the Faucons. There should be a chance that he might come back if he is a part of a smaller group chasing them.

 

[HelloDolly]

Why is Tipo Pinot not at LBL ? Is he injured ? Love to see him and Nibali in a 2 way slug fest ahead (or behind) Fuglsang & Allaphillipe

If Majka, Konrad,Scachmann, Formolo and Konrad were at LBL Bora could have places 5 to 9 sorted

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Like last year, Matthews wouldn't survive if the climbs are raced hard enough.

But if the preceding hills are soft-pedalled and he gets dropped by 20-25 seconds by Julian and Jakob on the Faucons. There should be a chance that he might come back if he is a part of a smaller group chasing them.

Best bet is for Tom the Do to get Matthews to the finish but I think Matthews doesn't have the legs
Tom the Do to finish 4th

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Alejandro Valverde no votes. What's the world coming to?

After the last two Ardennes races there is no reason to think he'll even be in the mix with his current not very good form.

 

[Frankschleck]

I think this will be fireworks with the strongest climbers attacking early, so exciting to see if Allaphillipe/ Valverde( eventhough he looks bad) can follow.

I expect Fulgsang, Nibali, Domoulain to be some of the riders contesting the win, but I also am excited to see if they can break Allphalippe. Gutted that Majka is not riding.

Bardet and Kreuziger would also be good in a selective race, but Kreuziger might be to hurt to be good. He still looked okay good at Amstel.

Lambrecht is also a good outsider. Yates either contesting for the win or not in top 100.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

So I assume Dan martin is either Injured or has withdrawn from the race?

Abandoned Flèche after being dropped with +/-30k to go.

After finishing 3rd, Ulissi said the team will still be 100% behind Martin for LBL.

 

[Robert5091]

https://twitter.com/TeamSky/status/1121423847197114368

We’re ready for @LiegeBastogneL on Sunday which will be our last race as Team Sky.

Tao Geoghegan Hart follows Nibali to LBL.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I think this will be fireworks with the strongest climbers attacking early, so exciting to see if Allaphillipe/ Valverde( eventhough he looks bad) can follow.

I expect Fulgsang, Nibali, Domoulain to be some of the riders contesting the win, but I also am excited to see if they can break Allphalippe. Gutted that Majka is not riding.

Bardet and Kreuziger would also be good in a selective race, but Kreuziger might be to hurt to be good. He still looked okay good at Amstel.

Lambrecht is also a good outsider. Yates either contesting for the win or not in top 100.

I wouldn't discount Woods being in the mix as well.

 

[search]

Re:

Why is Tipo
If Majka, Konrad,Scachmann, Formolo and Konrad were at LBL Bora could have places 5 to 9 sorted

they are all there, I think. One of the Konrad's at least. Probably also Buchmann for 4th.

 

[Frankschleck]

Re: Re:

I think this will be fireworks with the strongest climbers attacking early, so exciting to see if Allaphillipe/ Valverde( eventhough he looks bad) can follow.

I expect Fulgsang, Nibali, Domoulain to be some of the riders contesting the win, but I also am excited to see if they can break Allphalippe. Gutted that Majka is not riding.

Bardet and Kreuziger would also be good in a selective race, but Kreuziger might be to hurt to be good. He still looked okay good at Amstel.

Lambrecht is also a good outsider. Yates either contesting for the win or not in top 100.

I wouldn't discount Woods being in the mix as well.

Agreed, but he dissapointed in Amstel getting dropped by Trentin. But defiantly also a contender.

 

[Frankschleck]

Is tao Geoghan Hart riding?

 

[Kwibus]

Not sure they made the right changes. A lot depends on the roads in between the climbs, if they are big and wide and organised bunch is hard to stop.

My hope is on Fuglsang, he should know he cant wait for RaF. The latest he should attack is on the redoute and hope he gets some strong people with him, which he has to drop on the RaF though.

 

[Red Rick]

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

He needs to isolate Alaphilippe before then. The RaF is only 4-4.5 minutes, so the best an attacker can hope to gain there is 20-30 seconds over the top. If, say, Gilbert and Mas are still there, then it'll be an easy task for the QS riders to reel him in over the next 15 kms.

On the other hand, if Lutsenko and Izagirre can outlast the QS doms, then it's advantage Alaf. A lot depends on just how big of a peloton is still together at that stage, and who's in it.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re:

Like last year, Matthews wouldn't survive if the climbs are raced hard enough.

But if the preceding hills are soft-pedalled and he gets dropped by 20-25 seconds by Julian and Jakob on the Faucons. There should be a chance that he might come back if he is a part of a smaller group chasing them.

He definitely needs to manage his effort better than he did at Amstel. He attacked out of the peloton on the steep part of the Keutenberg and then seemed to blow up on the flatter part and get passed by a bunch of riders. That or he had a mechanical.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

He needs to isolate Alaphilippe before then. The RaF is only 4-4.5 minutes, so the best an attacker can hope to gain there is 20-30 seconds over the top. If, say, Gilbert and Mas are still there, then it'll be an easy task for the QS riders to reel him in over the next 15 kms.

On the other hand, if Lutsenko and Izagirre can outlast the QS doms, then it's advantage Alaf. A lot depends on just how big of a peloton is still together at that stage, and who's in it.

Alaphilippe will have Mas with him over the top of the RaF at the very most if they don't use him earlier than that. and the 15km to the finish isn't all that great to bring somebody back.

I don't believe there's any chance Alaphilippe will just wait on his domestiques. This is also the reason I think it's actually likely Fuglsang will wait until the RaF.

If attacks happen on La Redoute, look at the likes of Dumoulin or Bardet. Nibali should wait for the RaF if he's really good in my opinion.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

Depends on the race before RaF. If there is a bunch of aprox. 50 riders before RaF then he waited too long since they will chase him down. If the bunch is smaller, but stil 20 - 30 riders he will most likely not be able to drop everyone on RaF so he will lose the sprint.

The more I think about it, waiting for RaF is too late for Fuglsang. Ideally he arrives at the foot of RaF with Alaphil and maybe a few more and then he needs to drop everyone on RaF.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

He needs to isolate Alaphilippe before then. The RaF is only 4-4.5 minutes, so the best an attacker can hope to gain there is 20-30 seconds over the top. If, say, Gilbert and Mas are still there, then it'll be an easy task for the QS riders to reel him in over the next 15 kms.

On the other hand, if Lutsenko and Izagirre can outlast the QS doms, then it's advantage Alaf. A lot depends on just how big of a peloton is still together at that stage, and who's in it.

Alaphilippe will have Mas with him over the top of the RaF at the very most if they don't use him earlier than that. and the 15km to the finish isn't all that great to bring somebody back.

I don't believe there's any chance Alaphilippe will just wait on his domestiques. This is also the reason I think it's actually likely Fuglsang will wait until the RaF.

If attacks happen on La Redoute, look at the likes of Dumoulin or Bardet. Nibali should wait for the RaF if he's really good in my opinion.

If the big guys wait too long then the bunch will be too large. Final needs to be harder.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

Depends on the race before RaF. If there is a bunch of aprox. 50 riders before RaF then he waited too long since they will chase him down. If the bunch is smaller, but stil 20 - 30 riders he will most likely not be able to drop everyone on RaF so he will lose the sprint.

The more I think about it, waiting for RaF is too late for Fuglsang. Ideally he arrives at the foot of RaF with Alaphil and maybe a few more and then he needs to drop everyone on RaF.

Groups will be completely shattered on the RaF, and the false flat after favours the stronger individual over tiny groups of dead men who don't cooperate.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Why is Tipo
If Majka, Konrad,Scachmann, Formolo and Konrad were at LBL Bora could have places 5 to 9 sorted

they are all there, I think. One of the Konrad's at least. Probably also Buchmann for 4th.

I see what you did there. :lol:

 

[Velolover2]

Fuglsang doesn't have to attack before RaF if Astana sets the pace on the climbs. They have the strongest team. And we know how they can turn stage races into brutal marathons.

They could reduce the peloton to as little as 10-15 riders before Faucons if they wanted to.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Fuglsang doesn't have to attack before RaF if Astana sets the pace on the climbs. They have the strongest team. And we know how they can turn stage races into brutal marathons.

They could reduce the peloton to as little as 10-15 riders before Faucons if they wanted to.

Movistar thought they had the strongest team in 2016, and all their guys blew up (around the RAF, iirc) and Bala didn’t make it to the finish. The only other team that worked was Quickstep, and Martin blew up too (I think Alaf was also riding that year?)

In 2013, BMC thought they had the strongest team, but they ended up blowing early too, and Gilbert was isolated while Garmin sent Martin up the road for the win on Hesjedal’s wheel.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Fuglsang doesn't have to attack before RaF if Astana sets the pace on the climbs. They have the strongest team. And we know how they can turn stage races into brutal marathons.

They could reduce the peloton to as little as 10-15 riders before Faucons if they wanted to.

Movistar thought they had the strongest team in 2016, and all their guys blew up (around the RAF, iirc) and Bala didn’t make it to the finish. The only other team that worked was Quickstep, and Martin blew up too (I think Alaf was also riding that year?)

In 2013, BMC thought they had the strongest team, but they ended up blowing early too, and Gilbert was isolated while Garmin sent Martin up the road for the win on Hesjedal’s wheel.

But Astana has the best team with quite a margin IMO and they desperately need to go really, really fast in order to make it really hard for Fuglsang. The conditions will play in their favour, its pretty cold and will rain quite a bit (dno about the wind). Then optimally, you will have 3 guys in the finale over Redoute in Lutsenko, Ion and Fuglsang.