Liège-Bastogne-Liège: April 28th, 2019

[tobydawq]

Re:

When the danish expert on feltet.dk actually has a Dane as a favourite for monument you know its pretty serious. I cant wait for this race after the route change and hopefully a fourth act of the Alaf vs Fugelsong matchup.

Yeah, I was shocked to see that. I think he gave Valgren one star before Amstel last year (with at least 20 riders getting more)

 

[tobydawq]

All the three previous monument winners of the spring will participate in this race. That must be an extremely rare occurrence nowadays.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

All the three previous monument winners of the spring will participate in this race. That must be an extremely rare occurrence nowadays.

We’ve had some very unusual winners of the 3 so far, all arguably more suited to this race than the one they’ve already won. It would make sense then if some 75kg rouleur/sprinter type were to cling on over the RaF now and win La Doyenne. All eyes on GvA?

 

[Jagartrott]

Diego Ulissi ftw. Or Poels.
I expect Alaphilippe to crack tomorrow - in fact, I don't expect any real light-weights to do well in tomorrow's weather.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

All the three previous monument winners of the spring will participate in this race. That must be an extremely rare occurrence nowadays.

I just checked. This is the first time it happens in this millennium. Last time it happened was in 2000 where Zabel, Tchmil and Museeuw all lined up (and finished the race)*. No surprise that the last time it happened was in the days of the World Cup.

*For this to make sense you of course have to subscribe to the view that the change between millennia happened between 2000 and 2001 and not the year before.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Other than the two obvious big faves, I think A.Yates will be in the mix. Good podium bet.

It's difficult to see him at 100% though after his crash at FW. Especially if the weather is cold miserable, all that road rash isn't going to be much fun. It's a shame if he doesn't recover though, because he's exactly the kind of rider who could gap everyone on one of the last climbs and hold on for the win.

Didn't think the crash was that bad.....perhaps you're right.

I suppose my point is that if he didn't crash, he probably would have been on or very close to the podium at FW, and coupled with his form in Spain and Italy, a natural favourite for LBL. So: definitely flying under the radar here.

Yeah, completely agree. Maybe he'll be recovered enough, but the way he got back on his bike at Fleche, and then called it off a few metres later, didn't look good.

 

[Screecher]

Re: Re:

All the three previous monument winners of the spring will participate in this race. That must be an extremely rare occurrence nowadays.

We’ve had some very unusual winners of the 3 so far, all arguably more suited to this race than the one they’ve already won. It would make sense then if some 75kg rouleur/sprinter type were to cling on over the RaF now and win La Doyenne. All eyes on GvA?

GvA ? Check your calendar, it's not 2017.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The forecast doesn't look too bad now. Not warm but may well be dry in the afternoon

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

All the three previous monument winners of the spring will participate in this race. That must be an extremely rare occurrence nowadays.

We’ve had some very unusual winners of the 3 so far, all arguably more suited to this race than the one they’ve already won. It would make sense then if some 75kg rouleur/sprinter type were to cling on over the RaF now and win La Doyenne. All eyes on GvA?

GvA ? Check your calendar, it's not 2017.

Politt then.

Greg’s been “not far off” all season. He was active in Flanders but just didn’t have it in the later stages to continue doing that. If he’s smart here, though, and keeps his head down and follows wheels, nobody expects CCC to do anything today, so he can fly under the radar.

I agree he’s unlikely, but then that’s the point; all the monument winners have been unlikely on some level or another this season.

 

[tobydawq]

Wasn't Geraint Thomas supposed to do this race? It seems he will not after all.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Dumoulin could pull a Jungels.
He has the engine to do it and if Matthews manages to get back into the chasing group on the flat after Roche people will stop working to bring him back.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Dumoulin could pull a Jungels.
He has the engine to do it and if Matthews manages to get back into the chasing group on the flat after Roche people will stop working to bring him back.

Either that or Dumo will diesel along to reel Fuglsang in after Roche and set Bling up for the sprint.

Who can win a sprint from the likely survivors?
Matthews, Ulissi, Greg, Politt - Fast sprinters, not guaranteed to survive the climbs
Alaf, Kwiatek, Gilbert, Albasini - Classics experts with a good finish, likely to be involved at the finish
Valverde, Martin, Yates - Climbers with a fast kick (How’s Schachmann’s sprint?)

If a group of 4 or more arrives in Liege, one of those above will surely be the winner.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Either that or Dumo will diesel along to reel Fuglsang in after Roche and set Bling up for the sprint.

It would make perfect sense if Roche and then Dimoulin tried to reel Fuglsang in and set Bling up for the sprint but Roche is not riding.

 

[pink_jersey]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin could pull a Jungels.
He has the engine to do it and if Matthews manages to get back into the chasing group on the flat after Roche people will stop working to bring him back.

Either that or Dumo will diesel along to reel Fuglsang in after Roche and set Bling up for the sprint.

Who can win a sprint from the likely survivors?
Matthews, Ulissi, Greg, Politt - Fast sprinters, not guaranteed to survive the climbs
Alaf, Kwiatek, Gilbert, Albasini - Classics experts with a good finish, likely to be involved at the finish
Valverde, Martin, Yates - Climbers with a fast kick (How’s Schachmann’s sprint?)

If a group of 4 or more arrives in Liege, one of those above will surely be the winner.

The bolded guys will be non-factors in this race.
I love Phil G but his climbing and explosiveness really deteriorated in the past years. The only thing I want from him now is to win San Remo and to fly again on the Cauberg Gilbert style. How he rode everyone on his wheel in his Amstel/WC wins...He was amazing.
Gva was subpar all year and Politt is to bad a climber to contest the finale. I think Ulissi can't handle the distance.
Also, I'm not impressed by Kwiatkowski this year.
Schachmann sprint is good. He can give Alaphilippe a run for his money if they arrive in a small group without Matthews.

Fuglsang is really strong but if Yates recovered from his injuries I don't see him dropping the briton. I really think Yates can pull it off with an attack on RaF when only Fuglsang can respond.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Dumoulin could pull a Jungels.
He has the engine to do it and if Matthews manages to get back into the chasing group on the flat after Roche people will stop working to bring him back.

Either that or Dumo will diesel along to reel Fuglsang in after Roche and set Bling up for the sprint.

Who can win a sprint from the likely survivors?
Matthews, Ulissi, Greg, Politt - Fast sprinters, not guaranteed to survive the climbs
Alaf, Kwiatek, Gilbert, Albasini - Classics experts with a good finish, likely to be involved at the finish
Valverde, Martin, Yates - Climbers with a fast kick (How’s Schachmann’s sprint?)

If a group of 4 or more arrives in Liege, one of those above will surely be the winner.

The bolded guys will be non-factors in this race.

You could most certainly also have bolded Albasini.

 

[yaco]

Yates was better suited to Fleche Wallone - Thought Haig from his team would be a better bet but he's not riding - A top 10 result will be a bonus.

 

[Bolder]

If it’s half as windy as it was today in NE France it will be a factor.

 

[Red Rick]

cross/tailwind predicted tomorrow in Liege.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

cross/tailwind predicted tomorrow in Liege.

On an out and back course?

I assume it's for the final part?

 

[yaco]

So potentially the race could split up earlier than expected and it could be a hard day's racing - Like Kwiatkowski and Van Vleuten.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

cross/tailwind predicted tomorrow in Liege.

On an out and back course?

I assume it's for the final part?

Yeah, only the final 12-13km, after RaF. From 70k to go it's mostly head/crosswind unfortunately.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin said he has no chance of winning, but hopes to be there in the finale.

"Nobody ever won LBL after just coming down the mountain.

 

[search]

well, he did the same in the past two years. Obviously he didn't win, but it's not like he was completely hopeless either

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Dumoulin said he has no chance of winning, but hopes to be there in the finale.

"Nobody ever won LBL after just coming down the mountain.

I guess he will be fully committed to helping Matthews then.

 

[Velolover2]

Adam Yates is still very dangerous. Redoute and Faucons are his kind of climbs.

Don't think the fall was that serious. He looked great at the presentation.