Liege Bastogne Liege-7 hour monument, Sunday, April 21, 2024

[Gigs_98]

Nothing to do with cycling but couldn't help but notice the 7th option in the poll has most votes. So the bots have not yet taken over:

Human Randomness

Randomness is hard for humans It is notoriously difficult for humans to come up with truly random numbers. I don’t really have any data I can point to in particular, but there are quite a few well-…

mathlesstraveled.com

 

[Netserk]

Nothing to do with cycling but couldn't help but notice the 7th option in the poll has most votes. So the bots have not yet taken over:

Human Randomness

Randomness is hard for humans It is notoriously difficult for humans to come up with truly random numbers. I don’t really have any data I can point to in particular, but there are quite a few well-…

mathlesstraveled.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778059112250589561

View: https://twitter.com/infobeautiful/status/1778059112250589561

 

[Escarabajo]

How many collective minutes have Pogi and Remco actually raced together?

Probably in the world championships have been the most.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That is a possibility however I think that there is a chance that someone, most likely Pidcock, manages to hang on La Redoute or gets back in the descent like he did last year with Remco before getting dropped on the next climb.

Still, I would be really surprised if Pogačar doesn't arrive to the finish line solo.

Well, Pidcock is an excellent descender but there isn't much descending. A lot depends on how the race is ridden overall. If UAE sets brutal tempo on every climb then when Pog takes off others will be way more fatigued and the gap could increase very quickly (like in SB). Otherwise other guys may be able to catch up with Pog (likely only temporarily).

 

[Didinho]

I'm doing the 155km cyclo on Saturday. No Wanne, Rosier or Stockeu in the route (local towns don't want more than 500 people going through, which is not the case).

Looking forward to the Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, but already a bit nervous about my non-climbing gears. Will be a hard day but nice to do these climbs, always gives a better perspective when watching the race.

 

[Cookster15]

As long as Pogacar doesn't crash and wreck his season. Perfect result for me would be if MvdP wins solo ..... gap to Pog ..... then the rest.

Is there a weather forecast?

 

[Red Rick]

As long as Pogacar doesn't crash and wreck his season. Perfect result for me would be if MvdP wins solo ..... gap to Pog ..... then the rest.

Is there a weather forecast?

Cold, bit of rain (Pogacar luck merchanting), don't know what time. Wind straight from the north.

 

[Red Rick]

Cold, bit of rain (Pogacar luck merchanting), don't know what time. Wind straight from the north.

In all seriousness, headwind is good for Van der Poel. Probably bad for the race, I think it makes it more likely Pogacar waits for RaF or goes for a group sprint.

With this weather, Alpecin should use 2 dudes in the first 3 hours to go very hard on the flat first half towards Bastogne. Making it harder on the flat with a tailwind should favor MvdP over the mini climbers

 

[velaso montador]

I'm doing the 155km cyclo on Saturday. No Wanne, Rosier or Stockeu in the route (local towns don't want more than 500 people going through, which is not the case).

Looking forward to the Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, but already a bit nervous about my non-climbing gears. Will be a hard day but nice to do these climbs, always gives a better perspective when watching the race.

Wow sounds like such a blast. Have a blast sir i bet its gonne be such a memorable experience

 

[Valv.Piti]

I'm doing the 155km cyclo on Saturday. No Wanne, Rosier or Stockeu in the route (local towns don't want more than 500 people going through, which is not the case).

Looking forward to the Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, but already a bit nervous about my non-climbing gears. Will be a hard day but nice to do these climbs, always gives a better perspective when watching the race.

Thats probably next on my bucketlist of races I want to ride. I also think I would do quite a lot better than I did in Flanders in all honesty, lol.

And yes, you are completely right: It does offer something quite else and unique when watching the actual race unfold the next day. You notice all kinds of stuff on the roads your riding that you never would have dreamt of just watching the race, studying the profiles, reading stuff about the race etc.

It just adds another element - I have certainly become a big, big fan of these big races doing a sportif on Sat and finishing off with the elite on Sunday. A great way to spend your weekend, and in all honesty, I couldn't possibly think of another better way of spending mine than exactly just that.

 

[Escarabajo]

I just noticed that INEOS added Bernal to the race. It would be nice to see how he is going at this moment.

 

[Sciatic]

I'm doing the 155km cyclo on Saturday. No Wanne, Rosier or Stockeu in the route (local towns don't want more than 500 people going through, which is not the case).

Looking forward to the Redoute and Roche aux Faucons, but already a bit nervous about my non-climbing gears. Will be a hard day but nice to do these climbs, always gives a better perspective when watching the race.

Great you can do that. As for the important matter: what refreshments do they have?

 

[Didinho]

Great you can do that. As for the important matter: what refreshments do they have?

There are 3 lengths: 79km, 155km and 253km. I guess it’s respectively 1,2 and 3 places with supplies like in every Belgian cyclo. Mostly a sponsor like Etixx in Brabantse Pijl last weekend with energy bars, fruit, waffles, cookies, candy, etc. Also water and an energy drink from Etixx. So you take food and drinks with you for 1/3 of the length and you refill/take with you what you need untill next stop or the finish.

Or did you meant something do drink afterwards like beer or so? Always some bars and tables to drink.

 

[Sciatic]

There are 3 lengths: 79km, 155km and 253km. I guess it’s respectively 1,2 and 3 places with supplies like in every Belgian cyclo. Mostly a sponsor like Etixx in Brabantse Pijl last weekend with energy bars, fruit, waffles, cookies, candy, etc. Also water and an energy drink from Etixx. So you take food and drinks with you for 1/3 of the length and you refill/take with you what you need untill next stop or the finish.

Or did you meant something do drink afterwards like beer or so? Always some bars and tables to drink.

Thanks, I meant during the ride, and it sounds like there’s a good spread. A few beers after are a nice reward as well

 

[Gigs_98]

In all seriousness, headwind is good for Van der Poel. Probably bad for the race, I think it makes it more likely Pogacar waits for RaF or goes for a group sprint.

With this weather, Alpecin should use 2 dudes in the first 3 hours to go very hard on the flat first half towards Bastogne. Making it harder on the flat with a tailwind should favor MvdP over the mini climbers

I think if Pogacar wants to attack on La Redoute UAE will just make the race hard enough so the wind doesn't matter too much. I feel like headwind is only an issue for Pogacar if teams still have the numbers to make a proper leadout into RaF. If there are like two helpers chasing him I think it's probably already over.

 

[Red Rick]

I think if Pogacar wants to attack on La Redoute UAE will just make the race hard enough so the wind doesn't matter too much. I feel like headwind is only an issue for Pogacar if teams still have the numbers to make a proper leadout into RaF. If there are like two helpers chasing him I think it's probably already over.

Headwind is what makes group clot together.

Besides, it makes it also less trivial for Pogacar to drop all the others in the first place. It also makes the peloton go slower and thus nerf Pogacars edge in fatigue resistance and flat engine in the final 4h of the race.

There's a reason everyone has waited for RaF before Evenepoel and it's not because Redoute is a naturally great place to attack. And besides, both Evenepoel attacks were with a tailwind IIRC

 

[Blanco]

Pogacar will attack on Stockeau.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Pogacar will attack on Stockeau.

He will attack coming out of Liège and will have amassed such an advantage by Stockeu that he can carry a massive boulder up to the Merckx monument and replace it with a monument of himself, then he will catch back up to Van der Poel and beat him in the sprint.

 

[Froome]

Pogacar will attack on Stockeau.

Who? I only know MVDP, the guy who will win on sunday.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

He will attack coming out of Liège and will have amassed such an advantage by Stockeu that he can carry a massive boulder up to the Merckx monument and replace it with a monument of himself, then he will catch back up to Van der Poel and beat him in the sprint.

Or maybe he'll attack out of Liège, then go hide in a bush and reappear when the peloton returns from Bastogne.

 

[Gigs_98]

Headwind is what makes group clot together.

Besides, it makes it also less trivial for Pogacar to drop all the others in the first place. It also makes the peloton go slower and thus nerf Pogacars edge in fatigue resistance and flat engine in the final 4h of the race.

There's a reason everyone has waited for RaF before Evenepoel and it's not because Redoute is a naturally great place to attack. And besides, both Evenepoel attacks were with a tailwind IIRC

Like yeah, I see most of your points, but to me this feels like a race where UAE and Pogacar will say, let's take no prisoners and try to make a hard race setting up a long attack. I think when riders are clearly superior this has been the tactic of choice lately and I think Pogacar will be clearly superior. The headwind will be there, but it's not crazy strong and if almost everyone is on their own after La Redoute it just doesn't play that big of a role.

 

[Rob5091]

UAE's Strade Bianche tactic was go full gas from km 0 then when all the guys are done, Pogacar attacks. Let's see if they've come up with something new.

 

[velaso montador]

UAE's Strade Bianche tactic was go full gas from km 0 then when all the guys are done, Pogacar attacks. Let's see if they've come up with something new.

think seeing from the lineup one could expect something more or less the same this time.

 

[Blanco]

Who? I only know MVDP, the guy who will win on sunday.

I said he will attack there, didn't say he will win. Van Der Poel will win of course, who else?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Headwind is what makes group clot together.

Besides, it makes it also less trivial for Pogacar to drop all the others in the first place. It also makes the peloton go slower and thus nerf Pogacars edge in fatigue resistance and flat engine in the final 4h of the race.

There's a reason everyone has waited for RaF before Evenepoel and it's not because Redoute is a naturally great place to attack. And besides, both Evenepoel attacks were with a tailwind IIRC

It's not like the entire peloton is going to stick together until RaF because there is a headwind. So if Pogacar goes on RaF after 240km, it's not like MvdP can sit in the back of a big Alpecin train and wait for others to bring him back. At that time, it will be a reduced group of 10-40 guys and any of the domestiques still there will not be strong enough to control or reel back Pogacar. So whoever still wants to have a chance, will need to get his hands dirty. But who is going to lead a chase into a headwind to catch Pogacar to the benefit of Van der Poel? And all of this is assuming Van der Poel isn't dropped like an hour ago at that point.