Going to correct this:

Injured Froome > July 2014 Peraud - Yes, Froome was off his A game - but if he had ridden the Tour with his Vuelta form, he would have been closer to Nibali than Peraud was. Froome was still good (just not alien) especially in the 3rd week.
Tour Valverde < Vuelta Valverde : Don't really know why but Valverde is always stronger at the Vuelta.
Wouldn't disagree with you concerning Pinot.
Aru even in a 2nd gt (remember he had time to recover - it is not impossible to do well in the Giro and Vuelta in the same year) is stronger than Tejay. Just look how he rode the Vuelta...way more aggressive than Tejay in the Tour.
Edit: Also you talk about Froome's injury....why don't you bring AC's injury in to the equation? That certainly changes things as far as by how much time he was able to beat them by.