March 17th 2012 Milan-Sanremo - The Primavera - 298km

[King Of The Wolds]

I certainly hope that Sky will give EBH one or two helpers up the hills, or at least release him from Cav-duty if Cav struggles up the hills.

For me, EBH should be free to go after the puncheurs on the Poggio. If he makes a selection, he can wait and just try to cover moves, in case it goes to the finish. The other Sky riders can then work for Cav and try to get it all back together. That way, they have Eddie for a reduced bunch sprint and Cav for a big bunch sprint. A good bet either way.

 

[movingtarget]

I don't think this race suits Valverde. Haussler and Ballan would have to break away to win. I think Freire has a huge chance, Cavendish and also Cancellara. Can't see anyone from BMC making the podium. Ballan seems to be their best chance and I have doubts about Hushovd. Don't think Gilbert has the form to win. Also Goss if he can regain his form from last spring.

 

[eljimberino]

This race is better when it rains.

 

[Eshnar]

This race is better when it rains.

which race isn't?

 

[Leonardus]

Weather for saturday looks good, bit of sun and hardly any wind. Rain or even better a strong breeze from the sea would make it a lot more interesting.

***** Freire, Cavendish
**** Boonen, Cancellara
*** Greipel, Goss
** EBH, Haussler, Farrar
* Bennati, Breschel, Nibali

Just not sure about Sagan, think he should be a top favorite considering his current form and climbing abilities but the question is if he can handle the distance.

 

[Fus087]

Haussler and Ballan would have to break away to win.

Haussler almost won the sprint in 2009. But of course he was in the form of his life that spring.

I value Cavendish, Boonen, Freire, Boasson Hagen and Sagan on about the same level. Bole i another rider to watch out for.
One level below I see Cancellara, Nibali, Scarponi, Spilak as riders to go on the Poggio and stay away.

 

[analo69]

Just not sure about Sagan, think he should be a top favorite considering his current form and climbing abilities but the question is if he can handle the distance.

He can handle the distance. The tirreno stage that he won a few days ago was 250 km and very hilly. It lasted 7 hours, 24 mins. San Remo the last few years has been finished in less than 7 hours.

I don't think it will pose a problem for him.

 

[theyoungest]

He can handle the distance. The tirreno stage that he won a few days ago was 250 km and very hilly. It lasted 7 hours, 24 mins. San Remo the last few years has been finished in less than 7 hours.

I don't think it will pose a problem for him.

A stage in a stage race is totally different from a Monument. See Boasson Hagen, who has won one or two 220+ km Giro stages, but has never done something in a classic of that length.

 

[El Pistolero]

He can handle the distance. The tirreno stage that he won a few days ago was 250 km and very hilly. It lasted 7 hours, 24 mins. San Remo the last few years has been finished in less than 7 hours.

I don't think it will pose a problem for him.

They ride FASTER in classics, so it MIGHT pose a problem for him.

 

[Richeypen]

He can handle the distance. The tirreno stage that he won a few days ago was 250 km and very hilly. It lasted 7 hours, 24 mins. San Remo the last few years has been finished in less than 7 hours.

I don't think it will pose a problem for him.

Errrrrrrrrrrr surely your argument is contradicting itself. Milan San Remo is a lot further distance and finished in less time because it is raced a lot harder. His win the otherday is irrelevant as too whether he can handle the distance or not.

 

[Lanark]

Yeah, it's a bit deceptive to suggest that the distance in the classics is an issue for some riders (Sagan, Boasson Hagen). The distance surely plays a part, but what seperates the big classics from smaller races/stages is the strength of the field (really everyone is there), the difficulty of the route, the way it is raced (much harder/faster, and it's really all or nothing, you don't have to save anything for tomorrow).

I don't think the distance itself is really such an important factor. If you cut the first easy/flat 50 kilometers of the Ronde van Vlaanderen or Paris-Roubaix, you'd probably have the exact same race.

 

[Richeypen]

Yeah, it's a bit deceptive to suggest that the distance in the classics is an issue for some riders (Sagan, Boasson Hagen). The distance surely plays a part, but what seperates the big classics from smaller races/stages is the strength of the field (really everyone is there), the difficulty of the route, the way it is raced (much harder/faster, and it's really all or nothing, you don't have to save anything for tomorrow).

I don't think the distance itself is really such an important factor. If you cut the first easy/flat 50 kilometers of the Ronde van Vlaanderen or Paris-Roubaix, you'd probably have the exact same race.

I think its different with San Remo though because it is so long, its a good 40km longer than the maximum the UCI allows. Add to the fact that it is alos raced so hard, fatigue is always a massive issue.

 

[Lanark]

I think its different with San Remo though because it is so long, its a good 40km longer than the maximum the UCI allows. Add to the fact that it is alos raced so hard, fatigue is always a massive issue.

True, Sanremo is a bit of an exception, the Poggio and Cipressa would barely qualify as a hill in most GT's. It's also the 'easiest' classic probably, if you can survive the final of Sanremo doesn't mean you can do it in any other classic (outside Paris-Tours).

 

[El Pistolero]

True, Sanremo is a bit of an exception, the Poggio and Cipressa would barely qualify as a hill in most GT's. It's also the 'easiest' classic probably, if you can survive the final of Sanremo doesn't mean you can do it in any other classic (outside Paris-Tours).

And if you're Cav, you can't even survive Paris-Tours

 

[Zoncolan]

I'd like to see Boonen or Sagan take it. I doubt either will though. If Boonen is there, it's likely Cav will be there too.
Wouldn't mind Cancellara or Gilbert winning either.
As to who's favorite, it all depends on the moves. If there's a bunch sprint at the end, it's hard to see past Cav.
I wish for a move on the Poggio. Scarponi, Cunego, one of the Italians to break it up and eliminate (most) sprinters.

 

[El Pistolero]

Boonen is a lot better on the hills than Cavendish.

 

[Red Rick]

i want canc or boonen to win this.

if not them, i don't mind cav or sagan.

contador for a future win.

Lol wut? what drugs did you take?

It's not i don't like the idea though, but for AC to win MSR they need to come up with something better than the poggio

 

[Parrulo]

Boonen is a lot better on the hills than Cavendish.

a lot lot better you mean

it would be amazing to see boonen adding this one to his palmares, it is really a big gap that needs to be filled along side omloop

 

[Libertine Seguros]

just watch BMC will destroy the poggio

Poor tactical decision. That would make the run-in flatter, which would make it easier for the sprinters' teams to control it and get people like Cavendish to the finish intact. If anything they should build the Poggio up and make it taller and steeper to give Gilbert more of a chance of getting away.

 

[hrotha]

Poor tactical decision. That would make the run-in flatter, which would make it easier for the sprinters' teams to control it and get people like Cavendish to the finish intact. If anything they should build the Poggio up and make it taller and steeper to give Gilbert more of a chance of getting away.

http://instantrimshot.com/classic/?sound=rimshot

 

[Froome19]

Lol wut? what drugs did you take?

It's not i don't like the idea though, but for AC to win MSR they need to come up with something better than the poggio

Actually its not that stupid a post when you consider these two results
1)http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20697 look at the 2 riders who came 1st and 3rd
2) And this result: http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20317 once again look at the riders who came 1st and 3rd.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That Spanish nationals, however, would have been a bunch sprint if it hadn't been Rojas with him. Movistar had several people on the front of the péloton and the gap was small, but they sat up knowing Rojas would beat Contador in a two-up sprint. Euskaltel tried to pull it back together for Koldo, but didn't have the strength in depth when it came to flat run-in engines. Desierto de las Palmas is a tougher climb than Poggio too (though comes after less distance), and the race went over it a few times, so was an overall more intensive climbing day than San Remo ever is, and even in a similar situation to that in Castellón, the teams and riders trying to pull the attack back will likely be stronger suited for the situation than Euskaltel.

 

[rghysens]

Are you arguing just for the sake of arguing?
Of course he has and it seems like of course he has

No, I was just too tired to make a decent post.

But I don't think that Boonen is in a great shape. He did some work for the team in Paris-Nice, but that didn't impress me much. There's also the fact that paris-nice lacked a really long stage as an ideal build-up to MSR, in contrast with stages of 230 and 250km in T/A.
I also don't believe that he's got his winner's instinct back. Boonen in 2004 would throw his bike to the other end of the street when he got beaten in a mass sprint in the tour, this year he didn't seem to care much after his defeat in the omloop.

But I do hope he wins MSR.
And E3-prijs, gent-wevelgem, ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, belgian nationals, 5 stages in the tour, olympics, world championchips and paris-tours.

 

[Kvinto]

Actually its not that stupid a post when you consider these two results
1)http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20697 look at the 2 riders who came 1st and 3rd
2) And this result: http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20317 once again look at the riders who came 1st and 3rd.

I don't know how about the Spanish Nationals RR parcours, but as for your second example its profile is way better for attacks than Poggio

In fact the likes of Gilbert would love Poggio to be a half shorter but twice as steep

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That's the Spanish nationals parcours.

That side of Desierto de las Palmas clocks in at 7,7km at 5,1%, cresting for the final time 14,8km from the finish - FAR more suited to climbers than the Poggio di Sanremo. It's partway up Monte Bartolo - the first part of this:

(thanks as ever to the PlataformaRecorridosCiclistas guys for their analysis)