Mathieu Van der Poel

[42x16ss]

There's the question too of how exactly we are rating the performance as surprising and in need of explanation. Is it that Alaphilippe, Fuglsang etc. are clean(ish) and VDP is coming in and doping his way to success over mostly paniagua competitioners? Or are the other top guys doping too and VDP has simply come along and doped better/smarter, or with some relatively unused product, to beat them at their own game?

Other options being they're all doping and he's just physiologically better, or he responds better. My money is on the former.

My guess is he's like a classics version of Pantani - an outlier in both natural ability and the physiological response to doping.

 

[proffate]

Re: Re:

There are people saying VdP can win all 5 monuments, but in reality, Lombardia and probably Liege as well would be a bridge too far for him. At least I hope so, for the state of the sport. If VdP starts climbing like his grandfather something truly stinks.

What recent indication do we have of mvdp's climbing ability? He got a podium at MTB worlds and won Amstel and those are both events for climbers. We don't have much to go on for long alpine passes but I wouldn't put it past him to win the tour at this point. He's like Jungels but with an extra 100w engine that kicks up to 1000w in the last km.

Isn't the whole reason that he has this unusual power profile, because he trains differently to everyone else in the pro peloton? Everyone else has to do long, hard training blocks to prepare for three week tours and tough stage races. Also altitude training to reach peaks and troughs. All of which improves their recovery ability, fat utilization, power at sweet spot and below threshold, but blunts their sharpness to an extent.

Meanwhile, VdP is just spending six months simply racing once every three or four days maximum, with loads of explosive efforts each time. Then he's having three days rest or recovery rides, and repeat. He's doing no stage races driving cortisol through the roof, causing inflammation or massively lowering his testosterone or natural hgh levels. Imagine if Sagan or GVA trained exclusively to do one day races; and only did about 25 or 30 of them a year. I think they would be able to perform similarly to how VdP has done.

And if VdP wanted to tackle something like the Tour, then suddenly all his training has to be different, he has to lose weight, time peaks, get nutrition spot on, avoid ilnesses etc... It changes everything.

I would say you're right, he's probably less prone to over-training. Domoulin commented that MVDP made him wonder if all roadies should re-evaluate their approach to training. I don't know if over-training is really useful for grand tours though. I think you either "have it" (recovery ability), or you don't. Chris Boardman famously didn't. (obviously drugs help with this)

I don't think that needing to maintain race weight, peak, eat well, or stay healthy is unique to grand tours. Those are all necessary for every kind of bike race. It's true we don't have clues into MVDP's performance over 3 weeks. At the very least, he could take a bunch of stages at the tour across a variety of terrains, even if he couldn't contend every single day.

 

[Huapango]

Re: Re:

There are people saying VdP can win all 5 monuments, but in reality, Lombardia and probably Liege as well would be a bridge too far for him. At least I hope so, for the state of the sport. If VdP starts climbing like his grandfather something truly stinks.

What recent indication do we have of mvdp's climbing ability? He got a podium at MTB worlds and won Amstel and those are both events for climbers. We don't have much to go on for long alpine passes but I wouldn't put it past him to win the tour at this point. He's like Jungels but with an extra 100w engine that kicks up to 1000w in the last km.

Isn't the whole reason that he has this unusual power profile, because he trains differently to everyone else in the pro peloton? Everyone else has to do long, hard training blocks to prepare for three week tours and tough stage races. Also altitude training to reach peaks and troughs. All of which improves their recovery ability, fat utilization, power at sweet spot and below threshold, but blunts their sharpness to an extent.

Meanwhile, VdP is just spending six months simply racing once every three or four days maximum, with loads of explosive efforts each time. Then he's having three days rest or recovery rides, and repeat. He's doing no stage races driving cortisol through the roof, causing inflammation or massively lowering his testosterone or natural hgh levels. Imagine if Sagan or GVA trained exclusively to do one day races; and only did about 25 or 30 of them a year. I think they would be able to perform similarly to how VdP has done.

And if VdP wanted to tackle something like the Tour, then suddenly all his training has to be different, he has to lose weight, time peaks, get nutrition spot on, avoid ilnesses etc... It changes everything.

I would say you're right, he's probably less prone to over-training. Domoulin commented that MVDP made him wonder if all roadies should re-evaluate their approach to training. I don't know if over-training is really useful for grand tours though. I think you either "have it" (recovery ability), or you don't. Chris Boardman famously didn't. (obviously drugs help with this)

I don't think that needing to maintain race weight, peak, eat well, or stay healthy is unique to grand tours. Those are all necessary for every kind of bike race. It's true we don't have clues into MVDP's performance over 3 weeks. At the very least, he could take a bunch of stages at the tour across a variety of terrains, even if he couldn't contend every single day.

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

 

[proffate]

Re: Re:

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

What is the point of this comment? Are you suggesting overtraining doesn't exist? At Sky, EBH was training 40 hours a week over the winter and had a whole bunch of nothing for results. It's possible for pros to over-train, in fact quite probable as (a) riding a bike is fun and (b) it's easy to convince yourself that more is better. Conveniently, you just proved (b).

 

[Gung Ho Gun]

Re: Re:

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

What is the point of this comment? Are you suggesting overtraining doesn't exist? At Sky, EBH was training 40 hours a week over the winter and had a whole bunch of nothing for results. It's possible for pros to over-train, in fact quite probable as (a) riding a bike is fun and (b) it's easy to convince yourself that more is better. Conveniently, you just proved (b).

EBH was also their best or second best rider from 2010 to 2012. I think the point is that most pros, in most years, don't overtrain.

 

[Scatto]

As much as I like MVDP, he is surrounded by dopers: his father, his manager (who was caught as a doper and a dealer), and fellow riders like Stijn Devolder. His bike handling is fantastic, he trains a lot, talks sense, he's best in class, but those people should get out of his way to free him from suspicion. That would fully make sense.

I actually wonder what EF1 is about. Vaughters is one of the very few that spoke openly about his doping and condemns it. Wouldn't that be a team for real champions (I'm thinking Sep Vanmarcke is one, although I can't stand his brother and manager), not shady teams like Corendon-Circus?

 

[simoni]

Re: Re:

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

What is the point of this comment? Are you suggesting overtraining doesn't exist? At Sky, EBH was training 40 hours a week over the winter and had a whole bunch of nothing for results. It's possible for pros to over-train, in fact quite probable as (a) riding a bike is fun and (b) it's easy to convince yourself that more is better. Conveniently, you just proved (b).

EBH was also their best or second best rider from 2010 to 2012. I think the point is that most pros, in most years, don't overtrain.

There is obviously a difference between "overtraining" and "doing a lot of training".

I'd surmise that as time goes on riders are training more effectively as theory advances and empirical evidence mounts up.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

What is the point of this comment? Are you suggesting overtraining doesn't exist? At Sky, EBH was training 40 hours a week over the winter and had a whole bunch of nothing for results. It's possible for pros to over-train, in fact quite probable as (a) riding a bike is fun and (b) it's easy to convince yourself that more is better. Conveniently, you just proved (b).

EBH was also their best or second best rider from 2010 to 2012. I think the point is that most pros, in most years, don't overtrain.

There is obviously a difference between "overtraining" and "doing a lot of training".

I'd surmise that as time goes on riders are training more effectively as theory advances and empirical evidence mounts up.

With all the new technology e.g. power meters and heart rate monitoring algorithms fatigue levels are monitored better than ever so over training should be less likely than the old days. e.g. Strava relative effort score etc.

I am sure today's pros with all their team resources monitor their fatigue levels closely so over-training isn't a big issue. But MvdP has never raced a Grand Tour and it is difficult to predict how his body will recover until he actually does race for three weeks straight. Not sure they could predict that in training without also risking illness that would upset his training program.

The only way is for him to ride a Grand Tour and we all get to see.

 

[Norks74]

Re: Re:

Well, if you're a 200-300 mile a week rider and have never trained big miles (400-500+), then you'd never know. For me, the big miles made a huge difference.

What is the point of this comment? Are you suggesting overtraining doesn't exist? At Sky, EBH was training 40 hours a week over the winter and had a whole bunch of nothing for results. It's possible for pros to over-train, in fact quite probable as (a) riding a bike is fun and (b) it's easy to convince yourself that more is better. Conveniently, you just proved (b).

EBH was also their best or second best rider from 2010 to 2012. I think the point is that most pros, in most years, don't overtrain.

There is obviously a difference between "overtraining" and "doing a lot of training".

I'd surmise that as time goes on riders are training more effectively as theory advances and empirical evidence mounts up.

With all the new technology e.g. power meters and heart rate monitoring algorithms fatigue levels are monitored better than ever so over training should be less likely than the old days. e.g. Strava relative effort score etc.

I am sure today's pros with all their team resources monitor their fatigue levels closely so over-training isn't a big issue. But MvdP has never raced a Grand Tour and it is difficult to predict how his body will recover until he actually does race for three weeks straight. Not sure they could predict that in training without also risking illness that would upset his training program.

The only way is for him to ride a Grand Tour and we all get to see.

Thumbs up to that indeed, let's hope we do get to see what's what should it happen.

 

[Ripper]

Hmmmmmmm

 

[Ripper]

Just shaking my head

 

[Red Rick]

He wants to lose weight for the Olympics boys.

After that he wants to ride the Tour

We all know where this is going boys

 

[rick james]

Re:

He wants to lose weight for the Olympics boys.

After that he wants to ride the Tour

We all know where this is going boys

the Tour?

 

[ooo]

first undoped the Tour winner candidate?

 

[Ripper]

Re:

first undoped the Tour winner candidate?

Pure comedy! :lol:

 

[Ripper]

Re:

He wants to lose weight for the Olympics boys.

After that he wants to ride the Tour

We all know where this is going boys

LOL. No kidding.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well if he puts that kind of accelerations uphill not even Riis in his 60% days can follow

 

[Ripper]

Re:

Well if he puts that kind of accelerations uphill not even Riis in his 60% days can follow

Yup. 15 seconds ahead in something like 35-50 seconds of total riding, or as the website states: "opening up a gap of 15 seconds in 300 metres". And Schurter was still riding away from the others, so it's not like he died, packed it in, or had a mechanical. MvdP was just that much faster over 300 meters.

Just shaking my head. I've seen this before so many times, and not once was it purely talent and training, so not feeling optimistic here. Such is life

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

first undoped the Tour winner candidate?

Truly!
He's on bread and water. :lol:
He'll win the Tour by 10 minutes. Ride the Sky train off his wheel.

 

[F_Cance]

can't get that more suspicious than what he is doing right now

 

[Gung Ho Gun]

Re:

can't get that more suspicious than what he is doing right now

And he's been doing it pretty much non-stop over the past 12 months. No tiredness.

 

[nayr497]

Has to have Wout scratching his head over what he needs to try out to win.

 

[JosephK]

Not sure what all the fuss is about, regarding Mathieu this year. Clearly a very talented rider, he places emphasis on all aspects of training, nutrition, and race preparation. Okay, he's had some good performances, but nothing that exceptional. At Amstel Gold, he had a nice finishing surge -- nothing too outlandish. He looks after his health, washes hands properly, works to maximize dietary benefit, and trains very hard. He places tremendous focus on many factors -- none of which taken alone would account for huge differences in performance, but taken together, the marginal gains harvested by his dedication and discipline have added up to some good outcomes.

 

[the delgados]

Not sure what all the fuss is about, regarding Mathieu this year. Clearly a very talented rider, he places emphasis on all aspects of training, nutrition, and race preparation. Okay, he's had some good performances, but nothing that exceptional. At Amstel Gold, he had a nice finishing surge -- nothing too outlandish. He looks after his health, washes hands properly, works to maximize dietary benefit, and trains very hard. He places tremendous focus on many factors -- none of which taken alone would account for huge differences in performance, but taken together, the marginal gains harvested by his dedication and discipline have added up to some good outcomes.

Ha! That was fun to read.

 

[gillan1969]

Not sure what all the fuss is about, regarding Mathieu this year. Clearly a very talented rider, he places emphasis on all aspects of training, nutrition, and race preparation. Okay, he's had some good performances, but nothing that exceptional. At Amstel Gold, he had a nice finishing surge -- nothing too outlandish. He looks after his health, washes hands properly, works to maximize dietary benefit, and trains very hard. He places tremendous focus on many factors -- none of which taken alone would account for huge differences in performance, but taken together, the marginal gains harvested by his dedication and discipline have added up to some good outcomes.

Ha! That was fun to read.

I'm not sure we will see the true capabailites of MVDP until he is ill though...that's when the perfomances should spike....