Mathieu Van der Poel

[red_flanders]

I agree -- All the young or youngish riders who have left a mark this season were pegged early on for greatness or have shown steady progression -- Bernal, Sivakov, Ciccone, MVDP, WVA, Alaphilippe (still 26 or maybe just 27), Remco, Ivan Sosa, Pogacar, Lambrecht, Carapaz. Roglic etc -- there really haven't been any "Where'd HE come from" moments.

In fact looking back on that list, it's incredible how many strong young riders there are right now. I'm under no illusions that they're all clean, but "cleanish" would be OK with me, tbh, because one bust triggers a domino effect of "well, if he was dirty, than so must rider x,y.z"

Regarding a coverup of positives -- that's something we can only speculate on. I'm probably naive but I'd like to think it's not the UCI's modus operandi.

Yes, I think maybe you’re naive on that point—it’s certainly well beyond speculation. We have several episodes where the UCI has actively covered up positives...Armstrong and Contador for starters, plus charges of attempted bribes, etc. When positive tests of top riders magically disappear...I’m not buying it.

 

[Parker]

Looking at this graph, it makes you wonder what happened between 2007 and 2008, concerning average race speed:

What is the average season race speed per year?

In the 100+ years of cycling history, races tend to become faster and faster. What was the average race speed over the past seasons? Are stages races in the WorldTour faster than oneday races?

www.procyclingstats.com

The difference is down to incomplete time data on the PCS website. There seem to be issues with the early years, not just 2007.

Unless you actually think that races were ridden at an average speed of 55kph in 2007

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's not necessarily what i was getting at, but i do remember there was a major drop in averages years ago. But that was probably earlier (maybe 2nd part of the 90s). Also strange PCS would include that data if they don't have the numbers. it's literally what their website is about.

 

[42x16ss]

That's not necessarily what i was getting at, but i do remember there was a major drop in averages years ago. But that was probably earlier (maybe 2nd part of the 90s). Also strange PCS would include that data if they don't have the numbers. it's literally what their website is about.

There was a slight drop in 2007 that continued into 2008 due to Op Puerto and the French ADA under Pierre Bordry doing testing at French races instead of the UCI resulting in people actually getting caught.

In 2009 the UCI brought it back in house after dragging Bordry's name through the mud and it was back to business as usual.

 

[therealthing]

That sprint was insane. Granted it wasn't the best competition- but no one could even get on his wheel. And just 3 days after winning MTB world cup.

 

[proffate]

Scooping up handfuls of stages at lesser races is just going to put a larger target on his back in Yorkshire, but it probably doesn't matter given that no one can hold his wheel much less escape him.

 

[42x16ss]

Brabantse and Amstel were hardly lesser races.

Even with VDP's genetics things are getting crazy now, he's almost toying with Schurter, days before riding some decent sprinters clean off the wheel in a sprint FFS. Mathieu is the only 5 star contender for Worlds. I'd say he's probably the only 4 star contender as well.

My rough ranking:

* *** *- VDP

*** - Sagan, WVA, Evenepoel, Stybar
** - Kristoff, Alaphilippe
* - everyone else

 

[simoni]

Main things to bear in mind for the worlds are the length of the race (284km) and the profile of the finishing circuit.

Taken together, these probably point towards a flanders/fleche wallonne type, or possibly an all-rounder style GT type, probably an older rider with the endurance necessary to make it to the latter stages in good nick.

I'd say the length possibly counts against the younger guys like MVDP and WVA and certainly Evanepoel although who knows....it would be daft to rule them out completely. Id say Nibali, with the strength and expereince and a bit of a one-day pedigree, is well suited. Sagan always a factor in the worlds too.

 

[brownbobby]

I don't think WVA is going to be riding the Worlds is he...thought his season was over after the TDf crash?

 

[Ricco']

WVA ruled himself out of a Worlds participation even before his crash.

Although to be fair he wasn't supposed to start the Tour also and he did it with excellent results (barring the crash).

 

[proffate]

Brabantse and Amstel were hardly lesser races.

Who called those lesser races? I'm talking about Norway and ToB. The peloton has a short memory and alaphillipe's display at the tdf might have outshone mvdp's amstel, taking some of the attention off him. But if he comes out and smashes the warm up races he will return to the forefront of everyone's mind.

 

[42x16ss]

Seems he might be human...

 

[proffate]

Seems he might be human...

Yes, in the sense he can get sick. He did claim to see lower power numbers than he should be capable of on that final climb. I for one believe him. How much better could he have gone? Only his entourage knows for sure (should be easy to estimate on a climb that steep with a trustworthy power meter). He stopped short of asserting he could have won, which wouldn't have been a very polite thing to say. In any case, it's a disappointment because we can't judge him (or, since this is the Clinic, his cleanliness) based on his off days.

 

[42x16ss]

I agree -- All the young or youngish riders who have left a mark this season were pegged early on for greatness or have shown steady progression -- Bernal, Sivakov, Ciccone, MVDP, WVA, Alaphilippe (still 26 or maybe just 27), Remco, Ivan Sosa, Pogacar, Lambrecht, Carapaz. Roglic etc -- there really haven't been any "Where'd HE come from" moments.

In fact looking back on that list, it's incredible how many strong young riders there are right now. I'm under no illusions that they're all clean, but "cleanish" would be OK with me, tbh, because one bust triggers a domino effect of "well, if he was dirty, than so must rider x,y.z"

Regarding a coverup of positives -- that's something we can only speculate on. I'm probably naive but I'd like to think it's not the UCI's modus operandi.

Pantani came 2nd at the Giro and 3rd at the Tour at 24yo in 1994, Ullrich demolished the Tour by nearly 10 minutes at 23yo in 1997 and Frank Vandenbroucke was 24yo when he annihilated the field at Liege and won stages for fun at the Vuelta in 1999.

These are examples off the top of my head.

 

[Bolder]

Pantani came 2nd at the Giro and 3rd at the Tour at 24yo in 1994, Ullrich demolished the Tour by nearly 10 minutes at 23yo in 1997 and Frank Vandenbroucke was 24yo when he annihilated the field at Liege and won stages for fun at the Vuelta in 1999.

These are examples off the top of my head.

Of course -- I'm not trying to say these guys are clean, just that they haven't produced alien performances out of the blue. They have lived up to their billing and their records as juniors/espoirs etc.

 

[42x16ss]

Fair enough. Was just reminding that sadly, early promise doesn't always equate to cleanliness

 

[F_Cance]

Can't get more obvious than this sprint.

 

[therealthing]

Motor?

 

[F_Cance]

nuclear reactor

 

[fmk_RoI]

Ok, so it's an uphil finish, it's all in slow motion, a bit, the bunch is a catching the break and the guy jumps early, when everyone else has hesitated. FFS guys, watch some bike racing. Try some bike racing.

 

[F_Cance]

hesitating and not being able to follow are two different things.

 

[fmk_RoI]

hesitating and not being able to follow are two different things.

And crying wolf every time you see a fox is what? Cause that's all you're doing.

 

[King Boonen]

hesitating and not being able to follow are two different things.

Not really, once the gap is there it's incredibly difficult to follow and close. Maybe they thought he'd blow and they'd get him at the line. Maybe they saw the gap and realised there was no chance they'd get his wheel and decided to wait for the minor placings rather than dragging others and losing a podium. Lots of reasons for what happened.

 

[red_flanders]

Just watched the highlights. Clearly he's just putting out a lot more power than everyone else in the finale. This is pretty typical of what we've seen him do in various disciplines.

How he's doing that is open to speculation, but I don't think one can put it down to tactics or timing. When he went, guys were struggling to close down the 3 guys out front, going really hard. He simply blew by everyone. He's just way, way stronger. We've been seeing it all year.

 

[42x16ss]

Just watched the highlights. Clearly he's just putting out a lot more power than everyone else in the finale. This is pretty typical of what we've seen him do in various disciplines.

How he's doing that is open to speculation, but I don't think one can put it down to tactics or timing. When he went, guys were struggling to close down the 3 guys out front, going really hard. He simply blew by everyone. He's just way, way stronger. We've been seeing it all year.

That's right. VDP is making a habit of winning like this.

Timing is one thing, but you still need to put out a ludicrous amount of watts to these moves stick.

I love what this kid is doing but I won't lie, there's also some alarm bells.