Most likely to challenge Contador?

[Galic Ho]

Why on Earth would you name Valverde however free he it to ride? He's certainly not a bad GT rider, but he's 30 and he has never shown anything approaching Contadors level in GTs. Schleck arguably has better GT results (depending on how you rank the GTs) at 24 and he's young enough that it's still realistic that he could improve significantly.

Do you even pay attention to races? Valverde over the last three years has been in the top 3 cyclists in the UCI year end rankings. He wins a lot of races. Big, little and small. He also won the last GT. Yes Contador was not there, but only him and Menchov on paper have shown they have the goods to push Contador. Evans can make a case as well. Cancellara can make a case based on his chrono. Nobody else can. Andy Schleck seems good, but to beat Contador requires something else. Andy has enough to dispose of the other riders but not AC. We'll see at the Tour this year. Valverde and Menchov were no shows last year, thus it is premature to hypothesise their placing next to Schleck. Valverde because of the CONI ban in Italy and Dennis because he was both exhausted from the Giro and because he could not stay upright. We can see a real show this year because AS, DM and AV all are making the Tour their first GT. The fight for second and third will be fierce.

 

[Cerberus]

Right now. Valverde is the only rider who I see beating Contador. He can climb and has his chrono worked out. He has won a GT recently and that win showed he has figured out how not to lose, like he use to. Andy Schleck has a major weakness. His chrono. Valverde is more balanced. Also, Valverde does not appear to be injured as often. Problem is he may be suspended soon.

Ok, Valverde is equally good at climbing and TT perhaps, but he's just not as good as Contador at either. Winning the Vuelta is all well and good, but he won with 55 seconds to Sanchez who had a crash IIRC and by 1,32 to Cadel who had a defect. That doesn't exactly scream that he'll beat Contador. Valverde has never even podiumed in the Tour. Valverde can't beat Contador unless he makes dramatic improvements (unlikely at 30) or Contador has a bad Tour (in which Case Valverde isn't the most likely to pick up the win). Andy does have have to improve his TT and his climbing to beat Contador, but he's young enough that it's still realistic. He might not make it, probably won't, but he's the most likely and if not him then some other young guy, like Ricco, Kreuziger, Gesink or someone we don't even know yet. I just don't see the logic behind the Valverde pick, he's not good enough to beat Contador and he's not young enough to be likely to improve.
ETA:

Do you even pay attention to races? Valverde over the last three years has been in the top 3 cyclists in the UCI year end rankings. He wins a lot of races. Big, little and small. He also won the last GT.

Congrats, he's a great rider, but most of those races weren't GT's his results in GT's just don't come close to Contadors. AS for the Vuelta see above, it just doesn't place him near Contadors level. If you can't tell the difference between ranking high on the UCI list and being a Tour contender then I'm not the one who needs to pay more attention to races.

 

[santacruz]

I'm the last person in the world who would be considered a Lance fan, but he's not even on the poll?? wow the CN forums sure are a lot different from bikeforums, lol.

 

[maltiv]

I'm the last person in the world who would be considered a Lance fan, but he's not even on the poll?? wow the CN forums sure are a lot different from bikeforums, lol.

notice the "over the next several years" part. I just don't see armstrong challenging contador when he's 40+...

 

[jaylew]

I'm the last person in the world who would be considered a Lance fan, but he's not even on the poll?? wow the CN forums sure are a lot different from bikeforums, lol.

The poll is about someone to challenge him for the next several years, not this year. Otherwise, I would have included Evans, Sastre, Menchov, and the rest of the crew. Pretty sure this is Armstrongs' last go-round.

 

[ttrider]

Im actually going to jump on the Sagan band wagon in a few year i think he ll be a monster and the main threat in GTs he already has his short itt sorted out and will gain endurance with age, as good as anyone at short hills (Paris Nice stage 3) and i believe he can transfer this to mountains and long tts with age like contador did as someone else mentioned at 24.

For 20 his level is better than anyone elses by miles

 

[Wallace]

Pretty sure this is Armstrongs' last go-round.

God, I hope so.

 

[staubsauger]

alberto contador as the follower of il pirata in 2011? come on cobra and emanuele this time you have to anticipate it

normally these 2 guys are the only ones to beat contador, but only if ricco has learned to tt (seems so a bit after trentino) and sella is back on competetive preperation as in 2008 (don't think that will ever happen again)

 

[Angliru]

alberto contador as the follower of il pirata in 2011? come on cobra and emanuele this time you have to anticipate it

normally these 2 guys are the only ones to beat contador, but only if ricco has learned to tt (seems so a bit after trentino) and sella is back on competetive preperation as in 2008 (don't think that will ever happen again)

I hope you're just kidding about Sella. He's at best a steady 8-10 in the Giro gc and that by way of being in successful breaks after getting dropped out of contention by the real contenders. Quite a few eyebrows were raised watching his "fueled" Giro performance that led to his suspension.

 

[flicker]

Andy cannot TT forget him. Ricco and Sella cannot perform without dope.

Valvede con pero Piti and F. Schleck have Puerto ready to chop them in half like a gullitine,

Andy cannot function without his bro Frank. Bring on Lance, Levi Kloeden Sastre evans!

 

[The Sheep]

Andy cannot TT forget him. Ricco and Sella cannot perform without dope.

Valvede con pero Piti and F. Schleck have Puerto ready to chop them in half like a gullitine,

Andy cannot function without his bro Frank. Bring on Lance, Levi Kloeden Sastre evans!

He was asking in the coming years

 

[flicker]

In that case the only thing that can stop Contador is a crash or a positive.

No one will beat him in the next 9 years, Albertos the new merckx.

 

[ozerulz]

No one

Ditto. barring a crash or dope offense Contador should win a number TDFs. I believe he is more than capable of breaking LAs record of 7 by far. possibly 9 or 10 by the time he retires. A. Schleck will be this generations Joop Zoetimiller or however you spell it forever 2nd to Contador. I believe the real reason LA came back was in the forlorn hope of snagging a couple of TDFs from Contador in order to remain the man with the most TDFs.

 

[Willy_Voet]

Ricco. Snake venom is the new EPO.

 

[Von Mises]

From t list: ASchleck, Gesink and Kreuziger because they are younger than others/younger than Contador. They have time to improve.

If you take 1-2 year perspective, then closest to Contador are probably Menchov, Valverde, Evans, but they have to be at their absolute peak and probably still need some misfortune from Contador.

Ricco is question mark, same applies to Anton - he is same age as Contador and was developing nicely until 2008.

Those who are even younger and not in the list (Uran, Sagan, EBH, Taaramae, Seeldraeyers etc), uncertainty over their abilities and development is too large.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

So making the podium and misjudging a climb that he's done at race speed maybe twice is an example of "zero ability in one day races....so far"? You are one tough critic. I think what happened on the Mur de Huy was just a lack of familiarity with how approach that climb. Evans had tried and somewhat failed often enough to know how guage his effort.

Firstly, I didn't say he has zero ability in one day races. I said he he has shown zero ability. Maybe I am a tought critic, but it's not to belittle him or his accomplishments. It's just that he is touted as the best bike racer in the world, and is yet to do anything in the Classics and other one day races (aside from his recent third at FW and a national TT championship). To me riding away from people on mountain stages in a GT ceases to be impressive at a certain point. Yes he plays to his strengths, but I'd like to see him target some Classics, the Spanish Road Race Championships, and Worlds eventually. Until then he's just another domiant GT rider, and we've seen it before (coincidentally from another Spaniard). Honestly, I think he's good enough to win them all, maybe not the Cobbled Classics, but definately all three of the Ardennes, Spanish RR, and Worlds (when it suits him).

 

[Publicus]

Firstly, I didn't say he has zero ability in one day races. I said he he has shown zero ability. Maybe I am a tought critic, but it's not to belittle him or his accomplishments. It's just that he is touted as the best bike racer in the world, and is yet to do anything in the Classics and other one day races (aside from his recent third at FW and a national TT championship). To me riding away from people on mountain stages in a GT ceases to be impressive at a certain point. Yes he plays to his strengths, but I'd like to see him target some Classics, the Spanish Road Race Championships, and Worlds eventually. Until then he's just another domiant GT rider, and we've seen it before (coincidentally from another Spaniard). Honestly, I think he's good enough to win them all, maybe not the Cobbled Classics, but definately all three of the Ardennes, Spanish RR, and Worlds (when it suits him).

You are being a very tough critic. He's ridden the races exactly 3 times, only one of which he was actually a protected rider/focus of the race. I thought going the biggest hurdle for him would be the lack of familiarity with racing the course (i.e., experience). Classics come down to knowledge and experience and that is only gained over time. Ask Cadel. Or Andy. Or Gilbert. Or Cancellara. These guys all failed to win before getting over that hurdle. And that is, in part, why AC came this year--to get experience. Will he win next year? Don't know. But I bet he won't make the same mistake on the Mur de Huy the next time he races.

True, but what would be his goals? The Classics? He has shown me zero ability in one day races....so far.

Also I wonder if the Mur de Huy was a sign of the Tour's mountain stages. He'll have to really race come July, and if all it takes to beat him is wheel sucking, all the guys mentioned could be competitors. I don't think anybody can ride away from him uphill, but most of the guys mentioned in the poll could certainly ride his wheel.

I don't think you should read so much into the Mur de Huy as it relates to the Tour. Too many variables affect the outcome at Mur de Huy, that aren't present at the Tour.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

You are being a very tough critic.

I can accept that. Most of the people in this forum are tough critics. I'm just the only one that is critical of Contador.

It's only because I expect so much of him. Isn't that a good thing?

 

[staubsauger]

Ricco and Sella cannot perform without dope.

alberto cannot too. sella would have beat contador 2008 without his downfall, he was classes better. and i contradict that sella is just a man for gc 7-8. in my opinion it's just the thing that he has one year where he had the same doping prospects, the big names and teams always have because csf had that cera connection. and in that year he rode everyone in property. so from that angle of view he's even a better climber than alberto.......

 

[Publicus]

I can accept that. Most of the people in this forum are tough critics. I'm just the only one that is critical of Contador.

It's only because I expect so much of him. Isn't that a good thing?

Well that's not true. Plenty of folks are critical of him. What I meant by it was that you are applying a rather difficult standard. For a guy racing as a protected rider for the first time at a Classic, that is. Next year, he won't have that caveat or whenever he next races FW or LBL.

 

[Galic Ho]

I think he's about to turn 31, not 30, but I agree, he could do something in a GT now that he's not working for Valverde.

Valverde was born in May 1980. That makes him 30 in a few weeks time, not 31. Contador is 28 on December 6. Two years is not much of a difference.

 

[issoisso]

Harsh critic indeed. How is a podium "showing nothing"?

 

[Galic Ho]

Ok, Valverde is equally good at climbing and TT perhaps, but he's just not as good as Contador at either. Winning the Vuelta is all well and good, but he won with 55 seconds to Sanchez who had a crash IIRC and by 1,32 to Cadel who had a defect. That doesn't exactly scream that he'll beat Contador. Valverde has never even podiumed in the Tour. Valverde can't beat Contador unless he makes dramatic improvements (unlikely at 30) or Contador has a bad Tour (in which Case Valverde isn't the most likely to pick up the win). Andy does have have to improve his TT and his climbing to beat Contador, but he's young enough that it's still realistic. He might not make it, probably won't, but he's the most likely and if not him then some other young guy, like Ricco, Kreuziger, Gesink or someone we don't even know yet. I just don't see the logic behind the Valverde pick, he's not good enough to beat Contador and he's not young enough to be likely to improve.
ETA:

The logic behind Valverde is that based on last year, this year and how strong the entire field is, Valverde is the most rounded rider in the pro peloton. Contador would get that nod but he is not as good at one day classics. Cancellara can get a mention as well but his climbing in the third week of a GT is suspect. Valverde was the only rider who limited AC in Paris-Nice. Sanchez was next. Last years Vuelta. I admit Samu would have pushed harder without his fall. I thought he'd win at the start and Valverde would come second. Evans tyre issue does not count. The two Spaniards would have attacked regardless. They did not need to after that, because Evans had lost time. Preserve the lead and make the chasers attack. Evans did not/could not. Valverde won fair and square.

What has Schleck won that makes everyone think he will challenge this year or next? LBL does not count. Maybe in a few years, but right now, in this time, Valverde, Menchov and Evans are the best bets, because they are near complete as they physically can be. Andy, as I said, last year had 2nd covered because only the Astana try hards and Wigans were his competition. Valverde, Sanchez, Menchov and maybe Evans will be snapping at his heels this year. Andy will really have to fight to get second at the Tour. Last year he was pretty comfortable. Mt Ventoux told us as much. The race was for third. This year will be a different matter. After this thread is about who can beat AC. I went with the more rounded riders (who can accelerate in the hills and ITT in the top 10) because Andy Schleck has improved his chrono, but not by enough of a margin to realistically beat AC. He dropped 3 plus minutes in 2008 and only 2 in 2009. Valverde and Menchov will not drop 2 minutes to AC in a ITT. Nor will Evans. It really comes down to balance and numbers and they are the more balanced option. Note, I'm not saying AS won't get second, instead I am responding to the OP and I think Valverde is the most likely to push AC. He can get time bonuses (aren't they back this year) on shorter hill finishes and sprints when he chooses.

Congrats, he's a great rider, but most of those races weren't GT's his results in GT's just don't come close to Contadors. AS for the Vuelta see above, it just doesn't place him near Contadors level. If you can't tell the difference between ranking high on the UCI list and being a Tour contender then I'm not the one who needs to pay more attention to races.

I can tell the difference between the ranking and GT contenders. You appear to have failed to note that the UCI ranking system is correct for the top 10 riders. They are all winners. Be it stage races, sprints or GC contenders in GTs. Evans, Valverde and Contador have won the last 5 years and also taken the top 3 most years. Why? Consistency. They back up all the time and keep winning. Andy Schleck was also in the top 5 last year. Take a look at last years top 5 and dare I say it, come back here and put forward an argument as to why those men were not really the most consistent and best performers for the entire year. Excluding Cav and Cancellara they were. Perhaps the points allocated for particular races needs to be adjusted but the end result is very accurate. The best rider and most deserving does come first on the UCI points scheme.

As for coming close to AC. Lately Valverde has been one of a few. That was the point of this thread. To lay down an argument, or case, for who we can expect to push AC. People go with consistency. Nibali, Kreuziger, Gesink and the other young riders excluding AS all lack consistency. Evans, Valverde, Menchov and the Schlecks do not. They've walked the walk and talked the talk. They've beaten time and again these young guys. Also they've beaten consistently everyone else whose name has been put forward. On that basis they have the legs and attitude to challenge. As for the 'hopefuls', well I'll wait and see. But I don't expect anything. I don't think it is right to lump all these expectations on guys who have shown some talent but no concrete big win results. Which reflects in AC's record. Someone else made a point that the Liquigas guys and AS have a better record at 24 than AC. They don't. AC beat the top riders to get his wins. They haven't. Sure AS came second in the Tour, but he didn't win. AC on the simple fact he beat top riders again, and again, has the better record. It is why he is favourite to win this years Tour and the Liquigas guys will more than likely drag Basso across France. AC was put in a postion to win and he delivered. They haven't done this in the manner AC has. Kreuziger's one win in Suisse (or was it Romandie?) cannot match AC's multiple wins. LBL and a second in the Giro and Tour by AS do not either.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

alberto cannot too. sella would have beat contador 2008 without his downfall, he was classes better. and i contradict that sella is just a man for gc 7-8. in my opinion it's just the thing that he has one year where he had the same doping prospects, the big names and teams always have because csf had that cera connection. and in that year he rode everyone in property. so from that angle of view he's even a better climber than alberto.......

Sella's 2008 performances were jaw-dropping, yes, but before the Alpe di Pampeago stage he was 26 minutes down on GC. Yes, 17 of those were on one stage, and most of the rest was the Visconti group being let go. But he was let go because he was no threat. He lost over 3 minutes to Contador in the first ITT, and over 2 minutes in the third. The second was the Plan de Corones climb he juiced out for. Yes, he was only 7'30" behind Contador going into the queen stage over Pordoi/San Pellegrino/Tommaso de Agostino/Giau/Falzarego/Fedaia, and climbed that final climb faster than Contador despite having been in the break all day. But Contador rode a very defensive Giro there. Sella went and nobody responded. Pozzovivo went, no response. When Riccò went, that's when people paid attention. And once more on the Aprica, there was no reason to go with Sella. In fact, Contador would be happier to see Sella up the road and gaining time in those stages, because he would take the bonus seconds out of the equation.

The one time where I think a legitimate claim can be made that Sella outclimbed Contador, was Monte Pora in stage 19, when di Luca attacked at the base, and Riccò gapped the Contador group, only for Sella to ride on the front and pull Contador along, keeping him in pink. And remember, Sella was juiced in that Giro, quite clearly. In previous Giros he'd been 11th (2007) and 10th (2005) on the two occasions he'd tried to go for GC, accumulating results the way the likes of Paolo Tiralongo managed his Vuelta results last year or Van den Broeck managed his 2008 Giro results. It was a rather sudden vault from that to crushing everybody, even though he'd always been a convincing climber. He wasn't anybody you'd put as significantly above the level of the likes of David Arroyo (2x 10th places in the Giro), then all of a sudden he's putting five minutes plus into the likes of Joaquím Rodríguez and José Rujano on climbs?

I quite like Emanuele Sella, but the fact of the matter is, un-juiced, he's probably not as talented as Riccò, he's older, and he isn't going to challenge Contador until his time trial stops making Ezequiel Mosquera look like Fabian Cancellara.

 

[Angliru]

I can accept that. Most of the people in this forum are tough critics. I'm just the only one that is critical of Contador.

It's only because I expect so much of him. Isn't that a good thing?

My expectations of him are also awfully high. So high that I've had to tone them down a bit. For instance, when he said he was going to give FW and L-B-L a serious go, I initially thought that he could actually take either or both.
I later decided that based on his lack of experience in both races that I was being overly optimistic. What does he do but makes the podium of FW and then makes the pivotal move in L-B-L that allowed his teammate to win. Of course he didn't win either race but he figured quite strongly in the outcome of both.

As far as the cobbled classics are concerned I have absolutely no expectation of him even competing in Flanders or Roubaix. Now the other monuments, I believe he will eventually take a stab at and possibly win Lombardia. When he returns to FW and L-B-L I suspect that he will improve on both of his 2010 performances.