Motor doping thread

[Mr.38%]

Regarding different wheels in Hayman's house. You can spot, they even had a different wheel attached while Hayman took his shower, went to Antidoping and everything else in the pic where he carries his bike in a longsleeve (at least I think, this wheel is a bit cleaner).

I'm pretty sure they started to pack all of their stuff, bikes, wheels, equipment. It must be even more chaotic after a race like P-R. Then the press asks for more pics, either a Scott Rep or Teutenberg thinks it's a good idea to showcase the bike, so they attach a wheel and get it done.

Personally, I can say that after races, a bike never goes back home in one piece, wheels are separated from the bike. Mechanics try to get as much work as possible done right after races, a lot of water is used in a short time to get rid of muck quickly. While it may desirable to have a bike just like it was when it got over the line, chances are the wheels will be different as they are stored on either another car or may be confused on the rack. It's not cyclocross where riders tag their wheels, it sometimes happens but it's far from being a rule in road racing.

 

[Tom the Engine]

Re:

Regarding different wheels in Hayman's house. You can spot, they even had a different wheel attached while Hayman took his shower, went to Antidoping and everything else in the pic where he carries his bike in a longsleeve (at least I think, this wheel is a bit cleaner).

Apologies for insisting on this. But how do you recognize that it's a different wheel? I don't get it.
We have three pictures from the left side of Haymans bike in the vélodrome (one, two, three). And they all show the same thing: On the front wheel dirt is clearly visible. But not on the back wheel. It looks cleanish. (Again: left side, not right side! The right side of his back wheel is equally dirty as the front wheel.)

To me, all all pictures of the left side of his bike (in the vélodrome, in your pic with the longsleeves and in his house) look the same, don't they?

 

[Mr.38%]

Re: Re:

Regarding different wheels in Hayman's house. You can spot, they even had a different wheel attached while Hayman took his shower, went to Antidoping and everything else in the pic where he carries his bike in a longsleeve (at least I think, this wheel is a bit cleaner).

Apologies for insisting on this. But how do you recognize that it's a different wheel? I don't get it.
We have three pictures from the left side of Haymans bike in the vélodrome (one, two, three). And they all show the same thing: On the front wheel dirt is clearly visible. But not on the back wheel. It looks cleanish. (Again: left side, not right side! The right side of his back wheel is equally dirty as the front wheel.)

To me, all all pictures of the left side of his bike (in the vélodrome, in your pic with the longsleeves and in his house) look the same, don't they?

I have no idea as the light can trick the camera. To me it appeared, the rear wheel on the longsleeve pic is different but it may not. As for the pic in Hayman's house, I don't know as well. I just address points mentioned above that are NOT "red flags", "compelling evidence" or "smoking guns". They may be but highly unlikely in context of the actual pics from the rack.

And a good point regarding left/right side, I didn't notice this.

 

[Tienus]

Re:

@Mr38%
I did not have time to reply earlier. I think its a good post explaining your point of view. I have a different opinion which does not mean you are not right.

The point is, we do not know. We have evidence by the name of Marcel Sieberg who was able to follow the lead group and got rewarded with a great result. Marcel appears to be very much comparable to the 2016 winner in many aspects. I say: There is no reasonable reason to question Hayman. You can question everything if you like, of course. And again: A pic on twitter and the conclusion the bike got tampered with is not enough. We even have a power file that *appears*to make sense.

I think many are using motors in the pro peloton and Sieberg could easily be one of them.
The twitter picture does not mean much to me. I think the bike or rear wheel changing is very suspiscious. When I saw the powerfile and the speed missing I looked to that part of the race knowing the magnet was in the rear wheel. Hayman was not really followed in the broadcast I just noticed he was riding alone, for eleven and a half minutes as Peter pointed out.
I think at least the top five but probably many more used a motor in PR2016. Just as an example Vanmarcke can be seen doing some suspiscious swapping in the broadcast. I posted allready about him having two moments in RVV2015:
viewtopic.php?p=2058332#p2058332
In RV2016 he also had several changes:
http://wielerverhaal.com/ronde-van-vlaanderen-2016-en-de-grote-ontploffing-van-wereldkampioen-sagan-op-de-paterberg/
enkele fietswissels
some bike changes
Here is one of them, I like the commentator:
https://youtu.be/ue7U-RjVTNY?t=1h52m7s
Back to PR2016, he makes a stop at the same time as Boom and you can also see an OGE rider getting a new rear wheel from 2:09:12.
https://youtu.be/xaJpJmPzYnM?t=2h9m12s
The most suspiscous pitstop can be seen from 4:21:00. He is riding in second place behind a team mate on the coble sector. At 4:21:25 you can see him unclipping from his pedal (might need to put it on slow speed to notice) and someone from his team is getting something which is probably a rear wheel. At 4:24:20 you can see two LJ riders chasing in the back.
After this last stop Vanmarcke to me looks like the strongest rider, iirc he has two serious attacks to finish solo in the velodrome.

Just to give you an idea where I'm coming from: When Froome won on the Planche des belles Filles, I did not even ask if his power was doable for a human. It was so obvious for me that he was "pas normal" compared to his pears. I mean this particlar day, this weather, that particular race situation and in comparison to everyone else (edit: I'm referring to ordinary doping here). Impossible. Hayman's P-R is totally possible and *for me*, based on what I saw, Hayman won a great and special race.


To come back to the Classics, I remember when we saw Cance in P-R and Flanders, our group of fellow riders were like WTF even if we had no idea about the motor thing. I even remember I noticed Femkes Koppenberg attack and admitttedly I didn't think of a motor and indeed it was subtle. But rewatching P-R 2016 gives me not a single hint re motors. And it is wrong to bend anything in a preferred direction.

I agree like probably most on Froome and Cancellara. Femke raised a lot of suspision with her Koppenberg race in the cyclocross world. That race is probably why her competition made sure she got busted.

What do you think about Contador? I never saw anything from him which made me think about motors but I dont really watch road race. Some in or around the peloton have asked questions for years. Just a few quick google results:
Guimard giro 2011
http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/8703/Guimard-claims-Contador-could-have-used-mechanical-doping-in-Giro-dItalia.aspx
De Cauwer tour 2011
https://twitter.com/walterdewit/status/94048790964731904
Cippolini giro 2015
http://www.velonews.com/2015/05/news/contador-laughs-off-bike-motor-rumors-spread-by-cipollini_369990
L'equipe giro 2015
http://www.velonews.com/2015/06/news/claim-contador-staged-puncture-to-hide-motor-in-giro-bike_372681

 

[Tienus]

The rear wheel being cleaner than the front one at the finish could be caused by a wheel change.

 

[Mr.38%]

I will not further discuss Hayman as nothing is suspicious in regards of mechanical assistance and I think there is no "widespread" issue, at least not what I think would fit a definition of widespread. So we will never agree here. That kind of discussions in the clinic are depressing to watch and even more so if you're involved.

 

[Tienus]

Re:

I will not further discuss Hayman as nothing is suspicious in regards of mechanical assistance and I think there is no "widespread" issue, at least not what I think would fit a definition of widespread. So we will never agree here. That kind of discussions in the clinic are depressing to watch and even more so if you're involved.

Most of the time you are not discussing anyway, this post is a good example of that.

 

[Mr.38%]

Re: Re:

I will not further discuss Hayman as nothing is suspicious in regards of mechanical assistance and I think there is no "widespread" issue, at least not what I think would fit a definition of widespread. So we will never agree here. That kind of discussions in the clinic are depressing to watch and even more so if you're involved.

Most of the time you are not discussing anyway, this post is a good example of that.

Usual suspects including you dismissing any argument that does not fit their agenda as well. So it's better I stay out of this if certain people are involved. So of course, moto doping is widespread, sorry bothering you.

Next suspects in 1..2..3 ("fair points", "compelling evidence", "trolling", etc etc etc).

2:20 of footage missing, who gives a ***. Next argument.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

snipped for brevity

Very interesting re Vanmarcke.

I agree that in this day and age you probably cannot be in contention for a monument podium without a motor, maybe not even for a semi-classic.

In addition to Contador, Stannard is someone I'd love to scrutinize if I had more time.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

snipped for brevity

Very interesting re Vanmarcke.

I agree that in this day and age you probably cannot be in contention for a monument podium without a motor, maybe not even for a semi-classic.

In addition to Contador, Stannard is someone I'd love to scrutinize if I had more time.

Come on, that's a ridiculous statement. So last season you think that Demare, Swift, Roelandts, Hayman, Boonen, Stannard, Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Poels, Albasini, Rui Costa, Chaves, Rosa, Uran - and a whole host of others that were in contention for those podiums and semi-classics - were probably riding with a motor?

And this seems to largely be based on the fact that there are suspicions of a rider or two having to change a wheel at some point in a six hour cobbled race? :Neutral:

 

[sniper]

Tom, for me the only point was to point out a caveat, agreeing with John that Nicko's choice for that small hub was too restrictive, at least in the context of discussing what's possible.
Of course it's interesting to look at Hayman specifically, and the photo's posted by Mr38 are convincing enough showing that indeed it looked like a small hub like the one Nicko picked.
That said, to be fair to John, he never said Hayman is suspicious.

 

[Nicko.]

You have four options:
1 Find evidence of a bigger rear hub in a race
2 Help Mr Science fit a motor in a thumb-sized hub
3 Argue there are rim motors, with evidence
4 Explain how anyone would dare to use a crank motor that can be found in less than a minute with one allen key

Or dou you have a fifth option?

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

...
Come on, that's a ridiculous statement. So last season you think that Demare, Swift, Roelandts, Hayman, Boonen, Stannard, Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Poels, Albasini, Rui Costa, Chaves, Rosa, Uran - and a whole host of others that were in contention for those podiums and semi-classics - were probably riding with a motor?

yes.

And this seems to largely be based on the fact that there are suspicions of a rider or two having to change a wheel at some point in a six hour cobbled race? :Neutral:

no.

 

[sniper]

Re:

You have four options:
1 Find evidence of a bigger rear hub in a race
2 Help Mr Science fit a motor in a thumb-sized hub
3 Argue there are rim motors, with evidence
4 Explain how anyone would dare to use a crank motor that can be found in less than a minute with one allen key

Or dou you have a fifth option?

1. Yes that would be interesting to scrutinize.

2. John has said more than enough to convince me it's possible, especially if we take other evidence into account, such as Roglic' glowing hub, the footage of Hesjedal, or Varjas showing a vid of (what he claims to be) a rear hub motor. You really think those three cases were all flukes? If so, we can agree to disagree, no need to argue them through again.

3. If rimmotors - for which there is some evidence albeit thin - exist, I reckon their use is restricted to flat TTs and track cycling.

4. This is a non-issue as long as UCI are doing the 'testing'.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

...
Come on, that's a ridiculous statement. So last season you think that Demare, Swift, Roelandts, Hayman, Boonen, Stannard, Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Poels, Albasini, Rui Costa, Chaves, Rosa, Uran - and a whole host of others that were in contention for those podiums and semi-classics - were probably riding with a motor?

yes.

And this seems to largely be based on the fact that there are suspicions of a rider or two having to change a wheel at some point in a six hour cobbled race? :Neutral:

no.

So what's the evidence of, for example, Roelandts using a motor, or Uran? These are the kind of baseless and sweeping assertions that undermine all the excellent digging and science (including by you not infrequently) that should be what the clinic is about.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

...
Come on, that's a ridiculous statement. So last season you think that Demare, Swift, Roelandts, Hayman, Boonen, Stannard, Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Poels, Albasini, Rui Costa, Chaves, Rosa, Uran - and a whole host of others that were in contention for those podiums and semi-classics - were probably riding with a motor?

yes.

And this seems to largely be based on the fact that there are suspicions of a rider or two having to change a wheel at some point in a six hour cobbled race? :Neutral:

no.

So what's the evidence of, for example, Roelandts using a motor, or Uran? These are the kind of baseless and sweeping assertions that undermine all the excellent digging and science (including by you not infrequently) that should be what the clinic is about.

What is the evidence that these guys are doping?
The answer to that question will also answer your question about motors.

Of course it's preferable to have more, and more specific, evidence.
Especially Tienus has done some brilliant efforts to unearth that. Other evidence has been brought to our attention by some very nice investigative journalism.
If you'd take time to review all that, you'd see that the suspicion of motorfraud being widespread is *not* "largely based on a rider or two having to change a wheel at some point in a six hour cobbled race".

That said, yes, as it stands, in the absence of bullet proof evidence, we're still left speculating, and therefore it's only normal that, for the time being, we won't come to a consensus on the topic.

And if you would say that it's pointless to speculate about how much percent of the peloton is using a motor, I'd probably agree. Well, maybe not pointless, but certainly not very important. It's largely a personal matter of how to weigh certain pieces of evidence.

 

[Nicko.]

Re: Re:

You have four options:
1 Find evidence of a bigger rear hub in a race
2 Help Mr Science fit a motor in a thumb-sized hub
3 Argue there are rim motors, with evidence
4 Explain how anyone would dare to use a crank motor that can be found in less than a minute with one allen key

Or dou you have a fifth option?

1. Yes that would be interesting to scrutinize.

2. John has said more than enough to convince me it's possible, especially if we take other evidence into account, such as Roglic' glowing hub, the footage of Hesjedal, or Varjas showing a vid of (what he claims to be) a rear hub motor. You really think those three cases were all flukes? If so, we can agree to disagree, no need to argue them through again.

3. If rimmotors - for which there is some evidence albeit thin - exist, I reckon their use is restricted to flat TTs and track cycling.

4. This is a non-issue as long as UCI are doing the 'testing'.

1. Not 'interesting'. Do it, or don't argue it.
2. John has convinced you? Are you into 'alternative facts'?
3. Ok, not an option here.
4. Why bother discussing anything. With that reasoning, why not shoot up EPO? Much easier and cheaper.

So, whats left?

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

You have four options:
1 Find evidence of a bigger rear hub in a race
2 Help Mr Science fit a motor in a thumb-sized hub
3 Argue there are rim motors, with evidence
4 Explain how anyone would dare to use a crank motor that can be found in less than a minute with one allen key

Or dou you have a fifth option?

1. Yes that would be interesting to scrutinize.

2. John has said more than enough to convince me it's possible, especially if we take other evidence into account, such as Roglic' glowing hub, the footage of Hesjedal, or Varjas showing a vid of (what he claims to be) a rear hub motor. You really think those three cases were all flukes? If so, we can agree to disagree, no need to argue them through again.

3. If rimmotors - for which there is some evidence albeit thin - exist, I reckon their use is restricted to flat TTs and track cycling.

4. This is a non-issue as long as UCI are doing the 'testing'.

1. Not 'interesting'. Do it, or don't argue it.
2. John has convinced you? Are you into 'alternative facts'?
3. Ok, not an option here.
4. Why bother discussing anything. With that reasoning, why not shoot up EPO? Much easier and cheaper.

So, whats left?

1. Fair enough. To be sure, I didn't "argue" it. I just put it forward as a caveat. If you say that Hayman's hub is the largest we can find at the prolevel, I have to take your word for it.

2. John has convinced me that with enough resources, time, and motivation, rear hub motors are a plausibility. Having seen Roglic' glowing hub, Hesjedal's wheel spin, and Varjas' vid, I'd say they're a probability.
As for resources, take a moment to think about the fact that almost all top cycling teams have ongoing collaborations with, and/or staff members with experience in, Formula 1.

3. Agreed.

4. Indeed I assume pro's who do motors will also be shooting up on EPO. Why not?

 

[sniper]

what's left, you ask?
What's left is that you explain to me why Roglic' hub was glowing like a falling star on a clear sky, how Hesjedal's wheel started spinning despite losing it's momentum due to friction with the road, and what kind of software Varjas used to fabricate that vid of a working rear hub.

 

[Nicko.]

Where those hubs small like a fat thumb?
I'm asking you what technical options explains what you see in P-R or CX.
Your comeback is that Ryders wheel did this and Roglics hub looked like that. Road race and TT.

I'm trying to clean up the arguments by connecting them to technical/physical properties.
I'm not arguing that there are no hub motors. Or rim motors. Or crank motors.

I enjoy 'technical fraud'. Not illogical reasoning.

 

[sniper]

Ok that's fair enough.
To be sure, I didn't mean to get mixed up in the technical side of the debate.
I thought I pointed out a legitimate caveat wrt hub size, but admittedly i lack the time and know-how to back it up or expand on it, so if you say Hayman's hub is about as big as it gets, I'm taking your word for it.

Again, that brainstorm you and John developed was phenomenal.

 

[Nicko.]

I have always argued the possibility of motor fraud. I have also warned about non-informed opinions about why it can't be done.

In this case I put my foot down regarding a hub motor in a normal road hub. I am open for ideas. I will be convinced by sound and reasonable engineering.

We haven't really reached the technological point where we can jam a motor and battery into a standard sized hub that looks like every other hub out there. The rear wheel motors that are available have huge batteries and are usually single speed wheels. It's a fun conspiracy theory, though.

The hub was never, ever the place to put a hidden motor. The argument that a hub motor wouldn't work is naive at best...

Italian newspaper Gazzetta dello Sport has described a motor hidden in the seat tube and bottom bracket as ‘old doping’ suggesting that special wheels, able to produce 20-60 watts via electromagnetics and costing 200,000 Euro, are the most sophisticated form of mechanical doping currently in use in cycling

This seems it could explain Ryder's case.

Wait, wasn't this concept suggested already? In the very Clinic?
Oh yeah, a year-and-a-half ago, here:

That's an easy one, yes there is.
'All' electric rotational motors have a 'stator' and a 'rotor'.

I give you 'Frame' and 'Wheel'.
Put magnets in the rim and a series of coils in the wheel cutout of the frame, fire away

Or swap places, have the coils, batteries and electronics in the wheel. Very inconspicuous...

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=1563149#p1563149

Summary: If you don't master the engineering and the ingenuity required for this level of cheating, don't argue what can and can't be done.

 

[Tom the Engine]

Re:

What's left is that you explain to me why Roglic' hub was glowing like a falling star on a clear sky

I already wrote way too much about this Stade 2 thermal image documentary (here, here and here).

But I'm adding this: In the meantime I've read up considerably on thermal imaging just out of interest. I'm not spending much time on it here (as you will stick to your "glowing hub" anyway). The bottom line is: It's even worse than I thought. Their thermal footage is crap.
Thermal imaging is a very delicate business. You can't just rent a thermal camera, put it in the hands of a layman who is standing at the roadside and start filming a bike race as if it's a normal video camera. Careful thought has to be given to a multitude of factors (like emissivity, reflections, material properties, temporal and spatial resolution, distances, focus, ambient circumstances, etc) and the calibration of the camera and the measurement setup have to be adapted accordingly. Otherwise you get highly unreliable results.

Apparently they thought that it's more worthwhile to give Varjas another stage for his self-promotion and more meaningful to film Cooksons stupid face than to invest in producing a quality measurement with their thermal camera - the method they kinda based their whole film on. Bad journalism.

 

[sniper]

If you prefer liggett, fotheringham and the likes, I can't help you.

In my view it was one of the best bits of investigative sports journalism of recent years.

no motor:
https://img.rt.com/files/2016.04/article/5714da1ac361888f698b45a0.jpg

hub motor:
http://i.imgur.com/QJ86Ryo.jpg

crank drive motor:
http://images2.corriereobjects.it/methode_image/Video/2016/04/17/Sport/Foto-Sport-Trattate/Cattura-U431201038627392UHG--656x492@Corriere-Web-Nazionale.JPG

 

[Tienus]

I dont know anything about thermal cameras but according to Stade 2 an Corriere della Sera they had expert engineers looking at it.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bugno-calls-on-uci-to-use-heat-cameras-to-detect-mechanical-doping/
The camera detected significant heat differences that expert engineers suggested could only have been created by a hidden motor.

Bugno, who raced as a professional between 1985 and 1998, winning the 1990 Giro d'Italia and two world titles, is the president of the Cyclistes Professionnels Associés (CPA) on a part-time basis. He also works as a professional helicopter pilot and has expert knowledge of professional heat cameras.
"How come it took so long for thermal cameras to be used? I use them everyday in my helicopter when we diagnose problems with high-voltage power cables. They're very efficient and very precise. Why they haven't been used to look for hidden motors in bikes is a mystery," Bugno told Monday's Corriere della Sera newspaper.