Motor doping thread

[Mr.38%]

Sectors are 1-3 km so it will take less than 4 minutes at most, so just random guesswork as always from you.

Without even looking, Guesdon, Vansummeren and Knaven come to my mind. Everyone of these great riders but not favorites in any way.

You have an answer for everything just to support your point, disregarding logic and history. I'm sure you only began watching races thoroughly since being a member here.

 

[sniper]

Re:

Sectors are 1-3 km so it will take less than 4 minutes at most, so just random guesswork as always from you.

Without even looking, Guesdon, Vansummeren and Knaven come to my mind. Everyone of these great riders but not favorites in any way.

You have an answer for everything just to support your point, disregarding logic and history. I'm sure you only began watching races thoroughly since being a member here.

lol, this is getting a bit silly now. One irrelevant sneery remark after the other.

let me remind you, you got completely owned yesterday in the context of Hayman's powerfile, so maybe you want to address those issues first before throwing more off topic mud and driving home irrelevant points about what team Sieberg is on and that a monument can have surprise winners (I mean, really? wow, who'd have thunk).

 

[Mr.38%]

Look, I have no idea what was actually happening at any point for each rider. Hayman will be able to produce in the ballpark of 500W for 10 minutes (skinny dudes like Wellens do this). This is plenty for any situation in the first half of P-R. You started with a pic on twitter and now you attempt to analyse a power file when it's obvious, you have no experience in this (as I demonstrated with my personal file in the Sagan thread). It is impossible to judge Hayman's capabilities. He should have lost the sprint at 1294W but he didn't because Boonen was toast.

Siebergs result is a clear hint about what was possible that day.

 

[Tienus]

Sectors are 1-3 km so it will take less than 4 minutes at most, so just random guesswork as always from you.

Nine minutes of watching PR seems too much for you but you accuse me of random guesswork. Two coble sectors in nine minutes with Hayman out on front alone with his hands on the hoods. I'm sure someone can estimate the power required for that. I cant so I wont try but.

You have an answer for everything just to support your point, disregarding logic and history. I'm sure you only began watching races thoroughly since being a member here.

I'm actually open for discussion and interested if what I see is really suspiscious. Posting here means I might get more insight but your posts are no contribution to the discussion.

 

[Mr.38%]

I can say for myself that 350-360W on nasty cobbles are good for ca. 41km/h avg (28mm tires, 4.5 bar).

Edit: W normalized.
Edit 2: 70kg

 

[Tienus]

Re:

I can say for myself that 350-360W on nasty cobbles are good for ca. 41km/h avg (28mm tires, 4.5 bar).

Edit: W normalized.
Edit 2: 70kg

These numbers are helpfull for someone like me to get some sort of idea. Hayman was riding around 50kmh with a slightly favourable wind and some asphalt in between. I dont question he can do 500w for a while but in my opinion it does not match the story of him saving his energy with 80km to go.

 

[Mr.38%]

The point is, we do not know. We have evidence by the name of Marcel Sieberg who was able to follow the lead group and got rewarded with a great result. Marcel appears to be very much comparable to the 2016 winner in many aspects. I say: There is no reasonable reason to question Hayman. You can question everything if you like, of course. And again: A pic on twitter and the conclusion the bike got tampered with is not enough. We even have a power file that *appears*to make sense.

Just to give you an idea where I'm coming from: When Froome won on the Planche des belles Filles, I did not even ask if his power was doable for a human. It was so obvious for me that he was "pas normal" compared to his pears. I mean this particlar day, this weather, that particular race situation and in comparison to everyone else (edit: I'm referring to ordinary doping here). Impossible. Hayman's P-R is totally possible and *for me*, based on what I saw, Hayman won a great and special race.

To come back to the Classics, I remember when we saw Cance in P-R and Flanders, our group of fellow riders were like WTF even if we had no idea about the motor thing. I even remember I noticed Femkes Koppenberg attack and admitttedly I didn't think of a motor and indeed it was subtle. But rewatching P-R 2016 gives me not a single hint re motors. And it is wrong to bend anything in a preferred direction.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

Look, I have no idea what was actually happening at any point for each rider. Hayman will be able to produce in the ballpark of 500W for 10 minutes (skinny dudes like Wellens do this). This is plenty for any situation in the first half of P-R. You started with a pic on twitter and now you attempt to analyse a power file when it's obvious, you have no experience in this (as I demonstrated with my personal file in the Sagan thread). It is impossible to judge Hayman's capabilities. He should have lost the sprint at 1294W but he didn't because Boonen was toast.

Siebergs result is a clear hint about what was possible that day.

...about what was possible for a similar rider who hadn't just spent two months without any meaningful racing because of a serious injury which would have presumably kept him off the bike altogether for much of that time. If there are any other comparable cases I'd be interested and somewhat surprised. A 37 year old rider who smashes his previous best result of his entire career after the worst preparation imaginable. Especially in a monument. At least in a GT it would be possible to make a fairly weak argument about riding into form during the first week

 

[Mr.38%]

Re: Re:

Look, I have no idea what was actually happening at any point for each rider. Hayman will be able to produce in the ballpark of 500W for 10 minutes (skinny dudes like Wellens do this). This is plenty for any situation in the first half of P-R. You started with a pic on twitter and now you attempt to analyse a power file when it's obvious, you have no experience in this (as I demonstrated with my personal file in the Sagan thread). It is impossible to judge Hayman's capabilities. He should have lost the sprint at 1294W but he didn't because Boonen was toast.

Siebergs result is a clear hint about what was possible that day.

...about what was possible for a similar rider who hadn't just spent two months without any meaningful racing because of a serious injury which would have presumably kept him off the bike altogether for much of that time. If there are any other comparable cases I'd be interested and somewhat surprised. A 37 year old rider who smashes his previous best result of his entire career after the worst preparation imaginable. Especially in a monument. At least in a GT it would be possible to make a fairly weak argument about riding into form during the first week

Sure! But before motors hit the press you'd say, he was just on a great program - intentionally, plus TUEs etc. We would have had no evidence but it would make sense because you suggest that everybody is on some program ( and I would not want to argue about it).

It still is no hint of a motor. It is just a sign of the times.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

Look, I have no idea what was actually happening at any point for each rider. Hayman will be able to produce in the ballpark of 500W for 10 minutes (skinny dudes like Wellens do this). This is plenty for any situation in the first half of P-R. You started with a pic on twitter and now you attempt to analyse a power file when it's obvious, you have no experience in this (as I demonstrated with my personal file in the Sagan thread). It is impossible to judge Hayman's capabilities. He should have lost the sprint at 1294W but he didn't because Boonen was toast.

Siebergs result is a clear hint about what was possible that day.

...about what was possible for a similar rider who hadn't just spent two months without any meaningful racing because of a serious injury which would have presumably kept him off the bike altogether for much of that time. If there are any other comparable cases I'd be interested and somewhat surprised.
A 37 year old rider who smashes his previous best result of his entire career after the worst preparation imaginable. Especially in a monument. At least in a GT it would be possible to make a fairly weak argument about riding into form during the first week

this indeed.

If there are any other comparable cases I'd be interested and somewhat surprised.

"Without even looking Guesdon, Vansummeren and Knaven come to mind."
Without even thinking you mean.

 

[PeterB]

Re:

Did you actually watch the entire race (honest question)? The group worked very well together especially when the Sky's and QS's joined up as that was THE opportunity to distance both Sagan and Cancellara who were caught behind the break.

No I didnt. I only watched the 8 minutes he was riding with his nose in the wind.
Lets have a look:
https://youtu.be/xaJpJmPzYnM?t=4h56s
4:00:58 he has got 80.1 km to go according to gps race info
4:09:58 he has 72.6 to go

I conservatively used a distance of 7km which might still be wrong with race GPS accuracy. But maybe someone can work out actual distance. Anyway 7km gives an average of 52,5 kmh and it sure is not coble free.
I wonder how Hayman stayed well below his threshold.
The fact that Haymans speed is missing from that point is suspiscious and maybe done on purpose.

Edit: 9 minutes so i messed it up
Anyway riding in the wind for 9 minutes does not sound like working well together.
7km in 9 minutes gives 47kmh which is still impressive.

Sorry, this is again not correct. In measuring the time and distance of that part of the race you failed to notice that your video does not show the race continuously. See below how the distance drops in just 1 second:

As you can see the video is missing 1,7 km of the race. This other video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ0I_Juofys contains the missing part so you can make your calculations again (your video was missing cca. 2'20''), so Hayman's speed over this section in fact was...? (I'll let you post the correct value)

So, shall we discuss whether that re-calculated speed is realistic and believable?

 

[sniper]

It's a good spot. I get around 40kmh just roughly recalculating. If correct that would be in normal range.

 

[sniper]

Regardless, him riding at the front those kilometres makes a mockery of the claim that it was normal that he won the sprint because the others had supposedly done more work than him.

 

[sniper]

Re:

Yeh I don't see much in this one, plus he was probably still off his head on whatever Axel cooked up for him that morning.

In the Humo interview Varjas says Eddie is a good friend of his and has bought motorized bikes from him. Somebody give me one reason why Axel wouldn't be using motors for his riders.

 

[Mr.38%]

Re:

Regardless, him riding at the front those kilometres makes a mockery of the claim that it was normal that he won the sprint because the others had supposedly done more work than him.

Sniper, read up about anaerobic efforts and the W' concept. Then watch the last 15 minutes of the race. I'm sure you will be nodding, acknowledging politely.

 

[Jagartrott]

Boonen lost the sprint because he was boxed in by Vanmarcke, thus having to start sprinting too late.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

Regardless, him riding at the front those kilometres makes a mockery of the claim that it was normal that he won the sprint because the others had supposedly done more work than him.

Sniper, read up about anaerobic efforts and the W' concept. Then watch the last 15 minutes of the race. I'm sure you will be nodding, acknowledging politely.

If you have a valid counterargument, why don't you just make it?

 

[sniper]

Re:

Boonen lost the sprint because he was boxed in by Vanmarcke, thus having to start sprinting too late.

Hayman boxed him in by literally easing past him in the pre-final corner.
The difference in physical effort was rather noticeable.
Boonen: high effort, little output
Hayman: little effort, high output

 

[Mr.38%]

You did not understand a single word of my suggestion, right?

 

[sniper]

Re:

You did not understand a single word of my suggestion, right?

i do understand you seem to think you have a counterargument but seem unable to put it into words.
I'm patient. Take your time.

 

[sniper]

btw, jagartrott, i'm not denying boonen being boxed in played a major role.
It's a fair point.
Still I'm worried about the ease with which Hayman cruised past Boonen.
Look at that in slo-mo.

Normally I don't think Boonen would've allowed Hayman such a head start going into the final stretch.
Nerves also play a role, Boonen being far more experienced here.
It's unexpected to see Hayman take it in such commanding style.

It's certainly not impossible, but considering the other indications, his non-existing preparation, his weird wheel change post-finish ("Daddy's bike cannot be cleaned, or touched" ), the missing speed in his SRM file, and him staying well below threashold throughout, it all points towards a motor.

 

[Jagartrott]

I saw a program on TV yesterday (where a TV crew followed Etixx throughout 2016), and Boonen said that the moment Hayman started his sprint he thought 'perfect, he's starting 100 m too soon' - but then failed to see Vanmarcke coming up, so that he could himself not start sprinting when he wanted. Not saying this precludes the possibility of a motor, but based on what Boonen said, he was blaming himself for not being attentive enough and being overconfident (not for a lack of power).

 

[sniper]

Cheers, that's reasonable and certainly corresponds with the footage of the sprint.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

I saw a program on TV yesterday (where a TV crew followed Etixx throughout 2016), and Boonen said that the moment Hayman started his sprint he thought 'perfect, he's starting 100 m too soon' - but then failed to see Vanmarcke coming up, so that he could himself not start sprinting when he wanted. Not saying this precludes the possibility of a motor, but based on what Boonen said, he was blaming himself for not being attentive enough and being overconfident (not for a lack of power).

When do sprinters ever say they weren't fast enough ? Banging your bars and post-race talk of misjudgment or bad luck even when it is clear to everyone that they are outclassed seems to be the norm

 

[Nicko.]

Re: Re:

When people say hub, they always think of the shell between the flanges. But there's a relatively big volume occupied by the freehub mechanism... I'd be shocked if a three person team couldn't have a functioning prototype in 6 months. This is something a university student team could do as a school project.

John Swanson

Ok, it's time we put our money where our mouths are.
I found a cross section of a Shimano rear hub from som patent link, scaled it to the known width (130mm) and went to work.
I figured you need a quick release. I reduced it to 4mm from the standard 5.
The axle OD I set at 8mm, maybe 7 would work too.
For the hub shell I figured 1mm wall thickness is not impossible, same as 0.5 air gap betweeb hub shell and rotor.
Wheel bearings are spread out as far as possible in the model.
The free hub doesn't need bearings, it can just slide on the hubshell. Mind you, there is no clutch yet.
I put a rotor with 1mm shell thickness on the axle/stator.

Do you see how the cage and windings would fit on the axle while the rotor holds the magnets on the inside?
No matter how rare your magnets are , it's very far from 'easy'.

And how would you route the power leads to the inside of the rotor+bearings?

What about the 1:30 gear box, is that doable too? It must use two stages, no?
Got an idea for a fully functional freehub clutch that fits in within the standard Shimano profile but doesn't steal space from the motor?
How would you make sure this mechanical masterpiece never breaks down in a public, sensational way?

Maybe you envisoned something completely different. Looking like a standard racing wheel hub of course.

Your call.