the giro-tour double is possible that's for sure. An immense number of factors should match up to pull it off, but stating it's completely impossible since nairo and bertie couldn't do it is incorrect. as to nairo, i don't get the jabs directed at him. you can't win any grand tour you target. no one could predict that dimoulin would climb as one-and-a-half tier climber actually. quintana delivered a very solid perfomance which sadly didn't allow to win the maglia rosa this time. the giro showed for me personally how much difficulties a pure climber should overcome to win a grand tour. there's no other way but to completely destroy the opponents uptill. beating or just destroying Dimoulin or Froome-like guys might be easily not enough to win.
- May 15, 2011
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& you need some luck and most importantly, no bad luck. You can't have a crash or illness during the race or in preparation.deValtos said:
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yes, but that's not enough. you vitally also need opponents not being in form of their lives like dumo or landa.LaFlorecita said:
- Aug 12, 2009
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It's always good to read people knocking the bloke who finished in second place, by only 31 seconds, who has a resume filled with races he has won or finished second in, as being crap and trash.
What does that mean for every rider who is not named Tom Dumoulin? They all suck too?
Where does Nairo find 31 seconds? The mountain stage Tom won. Dropped 12 seconds plus the 10 second time bonus.
Stage 18...had Movistar actually attacked Dumoulin, there is an easy 10 more seconds.
That's your Giro won.
Had the Dutch brigade not helped tow Dumoulin on stage 20, there was another 20 seconds. Jungels and Mollema helped more than they were required to. But that's allowed. I don't have a problem with it. That's racing for you.
Nairo's biggest fault was that he use to rely far too heavily on Valverde for strategy and to control other race elements for him...like Froome sprinting off into the distance last Tour and winning the stage.
Nairo actually raced the Giro, without Valverde, who I will claim, would have actually prevented Dumoulin even making the podium.
Dumoulin is not talented enough to stop Valverde, Nibalia and Quintana!
Especially with Valverde's insane form this season.
If Nairo is struggling this Tour, they should use him to help Valverde. That's my 2 cents. Will they?
If Valverde wants to ride for Nairo, that's his call and I'll respect it. But I actually think he can still win the Tour. He was stronger in the Vuelta last year after a Tour where he never really fired and still managed third! I don't see how that pattern cannot occur again. Plus Valverde will be fresh as a daisy.
He rode a really good race. Oh no, he didn't finish in FIRST! The world is caving in...no, that would be the skulls of trolls collapsing in under their lack of density. Enjoy it!
What does that mean for every rider who is not named Tom Dumoulin? They all suck too?
Where does Nairo find 31 seconds? The mountain stage Tom won. Dropped 12 seconds plus the 10 second time bonus.
Stage 18...had Movistar actually attacked Dumoulin, there is an easy 10 more seconds.
That's your Giro won.
Had the Dutch brigade not helped tow Dumoulin on stage 20, there was another 20 seconds. Jungels and Mollema helped more than they were required to. But that's allowed. I don't have a problem with it. That's racing for you.
Nairo's biggest fault was that he use to rely far too heavily on Valverde for strategy and to control other race elements for him...like Froome sprinting off into the distance last Tour and winning the stage.
Nairo actually raced the Giro, without Valverde, who I will claim, would have actually prevented Dumoulin even making the podium.
Dumoulin is not talented enough to stop Valverde, Nibalia and Quintana!
Especially with Valverde's insane form this season.
If Nairo is struggling this Tour, they should use him to help Valverde. That's my 2 cents. Will they?
If Valverde wants to ride for Nairo, that's his call and I'll respect it. But I actually think he can still win the Tour. He was stronger in the Vuelta last year after a Tour where he never really fired and still managed third! I don't see how that pattern cannot occur again. Plus Valverde will be fresh as a daisy.
He rode a really good race. Oh no, he didn't finish in FIRST! The world is caving in...no, that would be the skulls of trolls collapsing in under their lack of density. Enjoy it!
- Apr 16, 2015
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Of course TD is talented enough to stop Nibali and Quintana win GT. He did that!
On another hand you really can not compare all those three riders with Valverde.He is totaly different level then all three.That will be great if Valverde could win tdf this year and of course Quintana could ride tdf only as his helper.
On another hand you really can not compare all those three riders with Valverde.He is totaly different level then all three.That will be great if Valverde could win tdf this year and of course Quintana could ride tdf only as his helper.
It's not really equivalent to say that the Giro-Tour double is doable because Froome/Quintana have performed well at the Tour-Vuelta double.
The Vuelta is not really a race that the top riders target and try to peak for. Every top GC contender has already ridden the Giro or the Tour. Teams are worn down and don't seek to control the race. There are no fresh legs. The Giro-Tour double is difficult because of how many top GC riders/teams specifically target the Tour, and it's ridden harder than any other GT. If you have tired legs you pay for it at the Tour.
Obviously, it is logically possible. But whether it's physically possible on the road in the era of modern cycling has yet to be seen.
The Vuelta is not really a race that the top riders target and try to peak for. Every top GC contender has already ridden the Giro or the Tour. Teams are worn down and don't seek to control the race. There are no fresh legs. The Giro-Tour double is difficult because of how many top GC riders/teams specifically target the Tour, and it's ridden harder than any other GT. If you have tired legs you pay for it at the Tour.
Obviously, it is logically possible. But whether it's physically possible on the road in the era of modern cycling has yet to be seen.
- Aug 12, 2009
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If Valverde and Quintana tag team Dumoulin...there would have been very little he could have done to stop them.
Valverde is a better domestique than every other rider in the pro peloton. For crying out loud, Movistar did a second and third at the Tour beating Alberto Contador!
Valverde looked like he was even stronger than Nairo last Tour. But he'd already raced the Giro.
It was a simple hypothetical on where Movistar could look in future to limit Dumoulin. To actually strategically challenge him. Because he is a threat in future GT's. Anyone who has won a GT is. Anyone at the front end of the race is a threat.
Sky did ensure Valverde dropped 10 mins in 2013 for that very reason. He was a HUGE threat. The simple tactics are, that most times, Valverde actually rides FOR Quintana. And yes, Movistar still get blamed with Sky winning, despite being the only team in recent years at the Tour to actually have any show of force that has dented Froome and the Sky train.
It's a no win situation with many...they're called haters dude. Movistar have a ton of them.
Had Orica sent Chaves to the Giro, Dumoulin would have had another rider the calibre or there abouts of Nibali and Quintana to handle. He handled 2 of them well enough. But three? Not a chance he could have stopped them.
KGB said:
If Valverde and Quintana tag team Dumoulin...there would have been very little he could have done to stop them.
Valverde is a better domestique than every other rider in the pro peloton. For crying out loud, Movistar did a second and third at the Tour beating Alberto Contador!
Valverde looked like he was even stronger than Nairo last Tour. But he'd already raced the Giro.
It was a simple hypothetical on where Movistar could look in future to limit Dumoulin. To actually strategically challenge him. Because he is a threat in future GT's. Anyone who has won a GT is. Anyone at the front end of the race is a threat.
Sky did ensure Valverde dropped 10 mins in 2013 for that very reason. He was a HUGE threat. The simple tactics are, that most times, Valverde actually rides FOR Quintana. And yes, Movistar still get blamed with Sky winning, despite being the only team in recent years at the Tour to actually have any show of force that has dented Froome and the Sky train.
It's a no win situation with many...they're called haters dude. Movistar have a ton of them.
Had Orica sent Chaves to the Giro, Dumoulin would have had another rider the calibre or there abouts of Nibali and Quintana to handle. He handled 2 of them well enough. But three? Not a chance he could have stopped them.
- Jan 15, 2013
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There's been a lot of criticism of Quintana in the last week and a lot of people over-reacting to that criticism. I think you have to look at how his career has unfolded to understand why people have this emotional reaction to him, like they feel betrayed.
The first superstar moment from Quintana came in the 2012 Dauphiné. Sky Train v1.0 had smothered every one-week stage race they entered all year, and none of the GC guys had any answers, except to hold on and try and steal a few seconds on the descents. Enter Quintana who floats away off the front 5km from the summit of the Joux Plane.
Fast forward to the 2013 Tour. Froome is now the caboose of the Sky Train, but he's a way better climber than Wiggins was. Quintana, there as backup for Valverde, attacks 34km out on the first mountain stage - he's reeled in but is applauded for the ballsiness of the move. People are fearing another USPS scenario of one team utterly dominating for a good chunk of the next decade. Obi Wan Quintana is our only hope. He outclimbs Froome in the last week and comes second on the podium and easily picks up the white and polka dot jersey.
So there's a narrative in place at this stage. Quintana is going to save us from boring stages and marginal gains and management speak. Even more romantically, he's going to avenge the lost generation of Colombian climbers, the ones who looked at the end of the 80's like they were going to change cycling, but who, as small guys with naturally high Hcts, were no match for hulking Frankensteins like Riis who were transformed by EPO.
So what happens next? He wins the 2014 Giro, but the defining moment of the race is the polemica on the Stelvio descent. In the 2015 Tour de France he seems unwilling to attack Froome for most of the race in case it puts Valverde in difficulty. Even when Froome is clearly in difficulty in the last week he appears content to wait for Alpe d'Huez. He puts a chunk of time into Froome but it's too little, too late.
The 2016 Tour is also disappointing. He's not in great shape and he appears content to move up the ranking through attrition, although the crosswinds probably hurt him more than any other GC rider. He wins the 2016 Vuelta, although it's Contador that kicks off the crucial move to crack Froome.
Now in 2017 another podium in the Giro that could have been more - he had everything perfectly set up for a big attack on the Stelvio stage with three men up the road, but he was content to just mark his rivals even on terrain he knew suited him much better than the race leader.
So we have someone people assumed would be winning GTs with panache, but who instead appears content with podiums much of the time, who's willing to play a percentages game, who won't assert leadership when he races with Valverde even though he's much stronger on the high altitude multi mountain stages that so often decide GTs.
As LS has pointed out before, maybe his immaculate poker face hasn't endeared him to fans - there's a perception that he has never really turned himself inside out suffering for a win. There's the suggestion that Unzué has coached the panache out of him. And right now it's fair to say that he's by far the least exciting rider out of the Froome/Contador/Nibali/Quintana 'big four' of the last few years. It's not entirely fair on him but people are judging him on not living up to the hype from his breakthrough.
The first superstar moment from Quintana came in the 2012 Dauphiné. Sky Train v1.0 had smothered every one-week stage race they entered all year, and none of the GC guys had any answers, except to hold on and try and steal a few seconds on the descents. Enter Quintana who floats away off the front 5km from the summit of the Joux Plane.
Fast forward to the 2013 Tour. Froome is now the caboose of the Sky Train, but he's a way better climber than Wiggins was. Quintana, there as backup for Valverde, attacks 34km out on the first mountain stage - he's reeled in but is applauded for the ballsiness of the move. People are fearing another USPS scenario of one team utterly dominating for a good chunk of the next decade. Obi Wan Quintana is our only hope. He outclimbs Froome in the last week and comes second on the podium and easily picks up the white and polka dot jersey.
So there's a narrative in place at this stage. Quintana is going to save us from boring stages and marginal gains and management speak. Even more romantically, he's going to avenge the lost generation of Colombian climbers, the ones who looked at the end of the 80's like they were going to change cycling, but who, as small guys with naturally high Hcts, were no match for hulking Frankensteins like Riis who were transformed by EPO.
So what happens next? He wins the 2014 Giro, but the defining moment of the race is the polemica on the Stelvio descent. In the 2015 Tour de France he seems unwilling to attack Froome for most of the race in case it puts Valverde in difficulty. Even when Froome is clearly in difficulty in the last week he appears content to wait for Alpe d'Huez. He puts a chunk of time into Froome but it's too little, too late.
The 2016 Tour is also disappointing. He's not in great shape and he appears content to move up the ranking through attrition, although the crosswinds probably hurt him more than any other GC rider. He wins the 2016 Vuelta, although it's Contador that kicks off the crucial move to crack Froome.
Now in 2017 another podium in the Giro that could have been more - he had everything perfectly set up for a big attack on the Stelvio stage with three men up the road, but he was content to just mark his rivals even on terrain he knew suited him much better than the race leader.
So we have someone people assumed would be winning GTs with panache, but who instead appears content with podiums much of the time, who's willing to play a percentages game, who won't assert leadership when he races with Valverde even though he's much stronger on the high altitude multi mountain stages that so often decide GTs.
As LS has pointed out before, maybe his immaculate poker face hasn't endeared him to fans - there's a perception that he has never really turned himself inside out suffering for a win. There's the suggestion that Unzué has coached the panache out of him. And right now it's fair to say that he's by far the least exciting rider out of the Froome/Contador/Nibali/Quintana 'big four' of the last few years. It's not entirely fair on him but people are judging him on not living up to the hype from his breakthrough.
- Aug 31, 2012
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Good analysis but I think I'd put him ahead of Contador in terms of generating excitement. When Contador won, he did it with time trialling and defensive riding (Vuelta 2014 and especially Giro 2015 in which he didn't even win a stage), and when he didn't win he was so outmatched that he was a non-factor.
- Aug 3, 2015
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Quintana has yet to dominate and steamroll the opposition in a GT like Froome did in 2013, Alberto did in 2009 and 2011 and Nibali in 2014*. I was convinced that he had that in him, maybe not that much more.
He needs a favourable course, but most importantly needs be a lot better than he has been than 2 out of his last 3 GTs.
He needs a favourable course, but most importantly needs be a lot better than he has been than 2 out of his last 3 GTs.
Quintana is being criticized because he had a below-par performance. A par performance would've put him 2-3 minutes ahead of the pack going into the final ITT and he would've held on.
I don't think he has much of a chance in the Tour but a top-3 finish is a reasonable expectation. If he somehow wins, I guarantee that most of the criticisms will disappear and he will be considered to be an all-time great.
Next couple of years is key though. It will determine whether he becomes a Contador/Froome/Nibali level superstar or closer to the Sastre/Evans/Andy Schleck level. But you can't fault him for banging his head against the Sky train - you never know; Froome may crash out or suffer an inexplicable loss of form, throwing the race wide open.
Then again it's also possible that someone like Dumoulin or Aru or someone else to emerge as a mega superstar. We shall see!
I don't think he has much of a chance in the Tour but a top-3 finish is a reasonable expectation. If he somehow wins, I guarantee that most of the criticisms will disappear and he will be considered to be an all-time great.
Next couple of years is key though. It will determine whether he becomes a Contador/Froome/Nibali level superstar or closer to the Sastre/Evans/Andy Schleck level. But you can't fault him for banging his head against the Sky train - you never know; Froome may crash out or suffer an inexplicable loss of form, throwing the race wide open.
Then again it's also possible that someone like Dumoulin or Aru or someone else to emerge as a mega superstar. We shall see!
- Aug 6, 2010
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Circumstances. He was coming back from the TDF injury and then gained time on Froome in the ITT. That made it only logical that Froome was the aggressor on the Cat 1 MTF's that Contador kicked away on late. Then in the '15 Giro he was semi aggressive on the early smaller mountains, then dominated the ITT. It was then a little difficult to 'attack' on Mortirolo when handed a one minute deficit via an ill timed puncture; the effort to get back on terms with the Astana duo were in hindsight, the majority of his matches burnt.
And he was hardly a non factor in last years Vuelta!
When one speaks about the recent version of Contador, one must also talk about the one week races. He has been largely responsible for making the last two editions of Paris-Nice epic. And the best performance in a one week race mountain stage this decade was probably his effort in T-A in '14, where he left behind a much less exciting rider IMO.
If Contador doesn't suffer ill-fortune at this years TDF, then I am confident that he will generate his fair share of excitement.
SeriousSam said:
Circumstances. He was coming back from the TDF injury and then gained time on Froome in the ITT. That made it only logical that Froome was the aggressor on the Cat 1 MTF's that Contador kicked away on late. Then in the '15 Giro he was semi aggressive on the early smaller mountains, then dominated the ITT. It was then a little difficult to 'attack' on Mortirolo when handed a one minute deficit via an ill timed puncture; the effort to get back on terms with the Astana duo were in hindsight, the majority of his matches burnt.
And he was hardly a non factor in last years Vuelta!
When one speaks about the recent version of Contador, one must also talk about the one week races. He has been largely responsible for making the last two editions of Paris-Nice epic. And the best performance in a one week race mountain stage this decade was probably his effort in T-A in '14, where he left behind a much less exciting rider IMO.
If Contador doesn't suffer ill-fortune at this years TDF, then I am confident that he will generate his fair share of excitement.
- Feb 23, 2014
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This is a very good point.
Something else I was thinking about - it's kinda interesting. He was suppose to do real well at the double. Plenty thought he'd do better than AC. I did. He wasn't even able to finish the first part. Now, who knows if he'll ever try the Giro-Tour again.
Valv.Piti said:
This is a very good point.
Something else I was thinking about - it's kinda interesting. He was suppose to do real well at the double. Plenty thought he'd do better than AC. I did. He wasn't even able to finish the first part. Now, who knows if he'll ever try the Giro-Tour again.
Re:
Contador's best years were before that when he was very aggressive not even in the same ball park as Quintana and it was Contador's attack that enabled Quintana to win last year's Vuelta. In the 2015 Giro Contador was riding against a much stronger Astana team so he had to change his tactics as his own team were mediocre. That was just smart riding. If Contador isn't exciting what would you call Evans, Wiggins or Dumoulin ? Comatose ? It's a bit absurd saying Quintana generates more excitement than Contador, maybe in Colombia ? Even when Contador doesn't win he is still much more aggressive than Quintana. I don't think I have ever heard Contador say the word "defensive" in an interview. He probably doesn't understand what it means !
SeriousSam said:
Contador's best years were before that when he was very aggressive not even in the same ball park as Quintana and it was Contador's attack that enabled Quintana to win last year's Vuelta. In the 2015 Giro Contador was riding against a much stronger Astana team so he had to change his tactics as his own team were mediocre. That was just smart riding. If Contador isn't exciting what would you call Evans, Wiggins or Dumoulin ? Comatose ? It's a bit absurd saying Quintana generates more excitement than Contador, maybe in Colombia ? Even when Contador doesn't win he is still much more aggressive than Quintana. I don't think I have ever heard Contador say the word "defensive" in an interview. He probably doesn't understand what it means !
- Apr 16, 2009
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Maybe not for him but for somebody else.
I think it would be easier for a Indurain type rider than a Quintana type rider. It is easier to take time in TT and defend in the mountains. Especially if you have a good team. The problem is that race organizers are trying to stay away from long time trials in order to avoid killing the spectacle from the beginning.
He meant for the future.Rollthedice said:
Maybe not for him but for somebody else.
I think it would be easier for a Indurain type rider than a Quintana type rider. It is easier to take time in TT and defend in the mountains. Especially if you have a good team. The problem is that race organizers are trying to stay away from long time trials in order to avoid killing the spectacle from the beginning.
below expectations perfomance doesnot necessarily mean below par perfomance. presence of the post-tour froome and the injured contador in the 2016 vuelta doesn't necessarily imply higher level of the competition imo
- Apr 16, 2009
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I don't believe that he is just happy with being number 2 rather than number 1. Just that his legs were not responding. In fact he tried several times and we could see that he didn't have it. Additionally Dumoulin's performance was incredible.
Sorry I don't agree that is because he doesn't want to.
Just answer me a question about Blockhauss, what else could he has done on that mountain? his numbers and performance were incredible. 6.2 Watts/kg. How could have seen Dumoulin arriving at 24 seconds???? nobody.
I continue believing that his poker face is miss leading the cycling fans.vedrafjord said:
I don't believe that he is just happy with being number 2 rather than number 1. Just that his legs were not responding. In fact he tried several times and we could see that he didn't have it. Additionally Dumoulin's performance was incredible.
Sorry I don't agree that is because he doesn't want to.
Just answer me a question about Blockhauss, what else could he has done on that mountain? his numbers and performance were incredible. 6.2 Watts/kg. How could have seen Dumoulin arriving at 24 seconds???? nobody.
Would loved to have seen them focus more on the Giro. Tour route doesn't look too bad though after reviewing it...hopefully he goes for broke if feeling good
- Mar 13, 2009
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I've lost a bit of sympathy for Nairo with all his excuses and also his speech after this race.
Nibali: "Dumoulin was the strongest and is a deserved winner". (even if he might think different, that's what he said).
Quintana: "Allies helped Dumoulin a lot and I was sick".
Meh. Not the first time. I liked him so much, now I have actually more respect for Nibali.
Nibali: "Dumoulin was the strongest and is a deserved winner". (even if he might think different, that's what he said).
Quintana: "Allies helped Dumoulin a lot and I was sick".
Meh. Not the first time. I liked him so much, now I have actually more respect for Nibali.
- Aug 3, 2015
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Yes, he said he was sick the day they climbed Piancavallo. He looked very bad that day and tried zip and nada despite Dumoulin being in huge problems, so it might be true, but I don't really buy it. As DFA said, its what Contador always says when he isn't performing up to expectations and thats annoying in the long run.
Surprised he didn't just say he was under par in the last week due to the crash, that would been have fair.
Surprised he didn't just say he was under par in the last week due to the crash, that would been have fair.
He is the marcel kittel of climbs. He isn't good at nothing apart from climbing. And he is only good because of his natural weight being around 55 kg, just like kittel that he is only good because of his 86 kg
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