Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Ryo Hazuki]

Well, it wasn't a few seconds...if its mano a mano, he took a minute, not seconds.
Purito's strategy was to peak on week #3 and is a threat, just like Horner.
Nairo had an amazing TDF, but Purito had a better season overall, in fact, the best again 2 years in a row.
Look at Lombardia, look at the worlds, look at Lombardia the year before. Let's look at Catalunya. Although Nairo won stage 3 in Catalunya, Purito was only 6" back with Valverde and did better overall than Nairo and beat Nairo on stage 4 (although officially they came in together ahead of everyone but Martin). I know, you will all say he was riding for Valverde there too, but he really was a free rider. I always thought that Nairo was more like Purito than anyone else, except he is 10 years younger. All I am saying is that, yes, Nairo is the best prospect and I hope he wins the overall, but Purito is not a pushover and not an easy guy to beat. Yes, Nairo beat everyone up the mountains at the tour, but let's look at Stage 20 (I have, 100x over).
We knew it was Purito, Froome, Nairo. Purito PULLED THE WHOLE TIME. Same argument that is made that Nairo burned himself out for attacking too early in the same tour is made here. Purito pulled...and pulled...and pulled. He wanted the podium, not the stage. Froome tried attacking several times. Nairo just needed to hang on and kill at the end. Purito still finished second after pulling. You probably missed that.....bro

under normal circumsances quintana will eat purito in any itt.

 

[gospina]

Good one
No offence but I dont think he wasted too much energy pulling half the lenght of semnoz.he didnt attack,so he rode steady tempo,and there is not a big difference of drafting at 9-10% hill.He simply couldnt catch Nairo in any other scenario imo.
Im not saying that Purito is not good for winning Giro.But I just think that Quintana's climber abilities are too much for him.
Lets not forget that Nairo will be probably even a bit better than last year.Purito?I dont think so...in addition to this Nairo has a lot better 'base level',...Purito has to be in super form
Imo Porte and MAYbe Horner are a lot more thread to Nairo.

Very good points. Nairo is on his way up, for sure. I think two out four veterans will not be in form (Cadel, Basso, Horner, Purito).
The guys starting to peak (Uran, Porte) will be in form, for sure.
Nairo will be the marked guy. He is the clear favorite and his to lose. I do hope that we see Duarte up in there too, but that's wishing too much to see Nairo, Uran, Duarte 1-2-3. Acevedo and Arredondo 4-5? ok...fantasy at this point

 

[gospina]

under normal circumsances quintana will eat purito in any itt.

Can you elaborate here? I believe that Nairo and Purito were both in top form at TDF. They had to be. With climbs & descents involved in the last TT, I dare say it was almost ideal for both of them. I will even say Nairo had the best bike change in the last TT out of EVERYONE (and I can't find it on youtube, so if anyone has a link for that, much appreciated). Even more reason to believe that circumstances were ideal. We know Nairo is better in 2014. We don't know about Purito, but I doubt he will lose form as he is the best at keeping form year around. What circumstances do you envision?

 

[Escarabajo]

Good one
No offence but I dont think he wasted too much energy pulling half the lenght of semnoz.he didnt attack,so he rode steady tempo,and there is not a big difference of drafting at 9-10% hill.He simply couldnt catch Nairo in any other scenario imo.
Im not saying that Purito is not good for winning Giro.But I just think that Quintana's climber abilities are too much for him.
Lets not forget that Nairo will be probably even a bit better than last year.Purito?I dont think so...in addition to this Nairo has a lot better 'base level',...Purito has to be in super form
Imo Porte and MAYbe Horner are a lot more thread to Nairo.

I don't think so. That was a lot of energy used there.

Having said that, I think Quintana is on the way up and He is learning more and more. So I believe he is a lot better than Purito in the mountains and almost equal on ITT. In fact I venture to say that on a mountain ITT Quintana will be better than Purito.

If a 43 years old rider is a threat to a peaking 24 year old rider with a 91 VO2 max on the rise, we should close the road racing forum and move to the clinic. Seriously.

 

[gospina]

I don't think so. That was a lot of energy used there.

Having said that, I think Quintana is on the way up and He is learning more and more. So I believe he is a lot better than Purito in the mountains and almost equal on ITT. In fact I venture to say that on a mountain ITT Quintana will be better than Purito.

If a 43 years old rider is a thread to a peaking 24 year old rider with a 91 VO2 max on the rise, we should close the road racing forum and move to the clinic. Seriously.

Tabling clinic discussions, Horner has been a GC like rider for a few years. He was the designated leader for the Vuelta a few years ago when he broke his leg. He has done great in the US races and is more 'legit' as a champion than Cobo was, imo. I don't like his comments sometimes, like when Apatuma and Duarte beat him up the queen stage in California or when Sanchez and Valverde beat him in a Pais Vasco stage, but I wasn't surprised with his Vuelta performance.

 

[Escarabajo]

Tabling clinic discussions, Horner has been a GC like rider for a few years. He was the designated leader for the Vuelta a few years ago when he broke his leg. He has done great in the US races and is more 'legit' as a champion than Cobo was, imo. I don't like his comments sometimes, like when Apatuma and Duarte beat him up the queen stage in California or when Sanchez and Valverde beat him in a Pais Vasco stage, but I wasn't surprised with his Vuelta performance.

I believed in the old Horner, not the today's Horner. And I also believe that he is very talented.

No more clinic stuff!!!

 

[Poursuivant]

How much time do you think Quintana will realistically lose to his GC rivals in the TT's?

 

[Netserk]

How much time do you think Quintana will realistically lose to his GC rivals in the TT's?

Nothing if you count the MTT.

 

[ILovecycling]

IMO he will lose something to Porte.
TTT +10 TT +90 MTT -50
In conclusion it will be about 45-55 seconds.Thats my guess

 

[Eshnar]

I don't remember the last time a GT had such a tough MTT. The gaps could be potentially devastating. Imho it's not unreasonable to predict 1 full minute between 1st and 2nd.

 

[ILovecycling]

I don't remember the last time a GT had such a tough MTT. The gaps could be potentially devastating. Imho it's not unreasonable to predict 1 full minute between 1st and 2nd.

Exactly my opinion.Im more happy for this MTT than for zoncolan.
I hope the weather will be good

 

[EnacheV]

Movistar seems to have improved their TT across the board so no losses in TTT, gains in MTT, small loss in flat ITT.

If he shows up in TdF 2013 form and doesn't fall of his bike than i think Quintana will win it comfortably.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't remember the last time a GT had such a tough MTT. The gaps could be potentially devastating. Imho it's not unreasonable to predict 1 full minute between 1st and 2nd.

+1.

Ventoux Tour 1987

 

[Eshnar]

+1.

Ventoux Tour 1987

I guess. I wasn't even born yet back then

 

[SaxonUK]

I haven't followed this thread but I just wanted to say that I can't wait to see more of Quintana this season. I hadn't really paid any attention to him until last years Tdf and he's one of the most exciting younger riders I've seen in a while.

 

[Jspear]

2014 Giro: 1st- Quintana, 2nd- Porte, 3rd- Horner

 

[Jelantik]

2014 Giro: 1st- Quintana, 2nd- Porte, 3rd- Horner

i would put:
1. Quintana
2. J-rod
3. Porte

 

[movingtarget]

IMO he will lose something to Porte.
TTT +10 TT +90 MTT -50
In conclusion it will be about 45-55 seconds.Thats my guess

A bit on the conservative side I think but Porte has to climb well anyway or he has no chance. Be very interested to see how Horner goes.

 

[Jspear]

i would put:
1. Quintana
2. J-rod
3. Porte

I won't argue with that. The only thing I'm pretty confident in is Quintana taking first. After that I think it will be 2 of those other 3 men fighting for 2nd and 3rd.

 

[slosada]

In the new 12th stage Quintana might lose 1:30 to 2:00 to Porte.
Urán might be the 2nd best of the GC guys in this stage
I don't know what to think about Purito because he did really well in the 2nd ITT in TdF'13.

For the MTT, Quintana should beat everyone but Porte also handles this (in P-N he won the MTT on Col d'Eze over Quintana albeit the lower distance and steepness).

All to say Quintana might be one minute behind Porte on TT, but even or ahead of other GC contenders

 

[trifun]

Somehow, I have an impression that story of the Giro won't be Quintana - Porte duel. Mostly because I think Porte won't deliver.

 

[ILovecycling]

Somehow, I have an impression that story of the Giro won't be Quintana - Porte duel. Mostly because I think Porte won't deliver.

Or the other way around,you never know


As for my conservative prediction,I didnt say what I expect from mountains...thats because I really dont know what to expect

 

[Pricey_sky]

i would put:
1. Quintana
2. J-rod
3. Porte

Same 3 but I would go:

1. Quintana
2. Porte
3. Purito

 

[gospina]

1. Quintana
2. Uran
3. Horner
4. Purito
5. Basso
6. Cadel
7. Porte
8. Duarte

 

[Jspear]

1. Quintana
2. Uran
3. Horner
4. Purito
5. Basso
6. Cadel
7. Porte
8. Duarte

What about Roche? In my opinion he'll be ahead of several of those rider. Also Porte will most likely be ahead of Cadel and Basso. I don't see Basso placing top 5. He's only getting older, he can't attack in the mountains the way Quintana or Purito can, and He isn't so good in the time trials.