An ASO informal ban still wouldn't prevent him doing most of his calendar. Even with Arkéa - in 2021 he did Tour du Var, some Italian one dayers, Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, Tour of the Alps, Asturias and the Dauphiné in the first half of the season; only Catalunya and the Dauphiné would be excluded by an ASO ban.
With Movistar he tended to do the South American early season races. 2017, the last time he targeted the Giro, he did the Challenge Mallorca, Comunidad Valenciana, Abu Dhabi Tour (obviously the UAE Tour has taken this role), Tirreno-Adriatico and Asturias pre-Giro.
I could readily see him do similar now.