Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[hfer07]

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

Maastricht, where Tom was born, is 50 meters above sea level, the lowest point in the Netherlands is 7 meters below sea level. Just saying

I actually was about to check that, because I was sure the number at Schiphol Airport is -11, but then I remembered that those are feet ofc

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

It sounded tongue-in-cheek to me

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

You get good bike handling skills from dodging all the road furniture and loose dogs.

 

[Escarabajo]

So there you have it. Nibali's assessment. It sounds like Nibali wants to join forces with Quintana. He knows he will benefit from it. But Quintana has different views:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/giro-ditalia-nibali-expected-a-quintana-attack-that-never-came-on-stage-11/

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

This.

Many of us share the same feeling.

Hopefully for Quintana, Dumo won't turn into a Froome. But you never know.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

Then you don't recall correctly. He had to chase downhill twice while he was leader in the 2015 Vuelta: La Gallina and Morcuera. He didn't close the gap but he reduced it in both cases. So I wouldn't say he's a bad descender. Whether he manages to regain in the descents what he may lose in the climbs this year remains to be seen.

 

[Escarabajo]

DFA, we all know what Quintana's plans are. The media knows, Dumoulin knows and the whole world knows what the plans are. That's why bets did not change after today. But many things can go wrong when you leave something all banked on an opportunity. That's the first mistake. Not being "unexpected". You have to use every opportunity you have. Nibali was even surprised that Quintana didn't have a go at it today. He was almost certain that Quintana would go in the last climb and that was probably why he attacked. Hell, why have 3 riders with in front?

Quintana is the stronger rider. This is a watts race where Dumo is mismatch everytime Quintana goes upwards. Why not use every opportunity. I am sure an rider never wants to lose a race being the stronger rider.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

You get good bike handling skills from dodging all the road furniture and loose dogs.

ha, that's true, certainly if Amstel Gold is anything to go by. Maybe you're just all too tall then and can't get the low center of gravity needed for the steep, tight switchbacks that the more dwarfish Spaniards and Italians can. Dumoulin's got quite a big head though, that should help get enough weight on the front wheel.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

Then you don't recall correctly. He had to chase downhill twice while he was leader in the 2015 Vuelta: La Gallina and Morcuera. He didn't close the gap but he reduced it in both cases. So I wouldn't say he's a bad descender. Whether he manages to regain in the descents what he may lose in the climbs this year remains to be seen.

Well, I did specify technical descent. Morcuera certainly isn't technical, it's a power descent which of course he can be good at. And on the Galina, I think you've mis-remembered it. Valverde was leading most of the descent from Dumoulin's group, trying to distance Froome, with Dumoulin sat quite far back in the group giving himself a fair bit of margin for error. (e.g. here https://youtu.be/4QGMKlIdxf4?t=11824. So, the jury is certainly still out on his descending under pressure.

 

[dacooley]

never seen quintana showing himself as a very good or just a solid descender either. I'm really curious how he would've done the umbrail downhill alone if he had put 1-2 min in nibali, td, mollema on the top of the pass. it's definately going to be interesting to find out!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."

 

[lenric]

Re:

Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."

I loled. :lol:

 

[DFA123]

Re:

never seen quintana showing himself as a very good or just a solid descender either. I'm really curious how he would've done the umbrail downhill alone if he had put 1-2 min in nibali, td, mollema on the top of the pass. it's definately going to be interesting to find out!

I think we've seen enough of Quintana to know that he's a technically competent, but unspectacular and relatively risk-free descender. There's not really many question marks there, we kind of know what we'll get from him. His problem is mostly his light weight on the gentler gradients, but on the steepish climbs of the Dolomites/Alps - especially the ones with so many hairpins, he should hold his own to all apart from the real daredevils like Nibali.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."

I loled. :lol:

Ye, it also seems pretty trolly to me. I certaintly approve.

 

[Escarabajo]

Quintana's descending is OK. I'd say he defends himself but won't use it as a weapon.

 

[portugal11]

Dfa'posts are getting worse day by day. *removed by King Boonen*... always writing crappy stuff about quintana or GVA



Edited by King Boonen: Post, not poster please.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Re: Re:

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.

I disagree.

Quintana won the Giro because of the Stelvio fiasco: The race was neutralized and he kept going full steam ahead.

Quintana won the Vuelta thanks to the kamikaze attack of Contador on Formigal. If Contador hadn't attacked, Froome would have won that Vuelta.

The good thing in this Giro, is that Quintana can still win it, but, in order for him to do so, he'll go have to go into the red. That will cost him the Tour for sure.

Thanks Doumolin for making the Giro an interesting race!

 

[dacooley]

over his career, nairo put two absolutely heroic stages in grand tours thus far. both on val martello and alpe d'huez (2015) he managed to distance all the contenders by taking a huge amount of time. yes, he got really lucky with the time confusion incident on the stelvio, but even with all things being equal and the big group reaching the foot of martello all together, he almost certainly would've been able to gain at the very least 1'30'' on aru, uran, keldermann and co. it seems plain obvious. notwithstanding, i wouldn't give me such a big credit and i'm not sure quintana can deliver such blistering showings as soon as he needs them. so it's going to be a very thrilling battle between him, td and nibs.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.

If you don't consider his move as Lagos de Covadonga as a big attack, then I think we just have very different standards. He also took time to the likes of Contador and Chaves on several different stages throughout the race, it certainly wasn't just the one big attack.

I think the tactic will be very similar this Giro. Try to take smallish time regularly against the likes of Nibali and Pinot - like he did against Contador and Chaves. Then destroy Dumoulin with one race-splitting attack - like he did to Froome.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

If you don't consider his move as Lagos de Covadonga as a big attack, then I think we just have very different standards. He also took time to the likes of Contador and Chaves on several different stages throughout the race, it certainly wasn't just the one big attack.

I think the tactic will be very similar this Giro. Try to take smallish time regularly against the likes of Nibali and Pinot - like he did against Contador and Chaves. Then destroy Dumoulin with one race-splitting attack - like he did to Froome.

lagos de cavadonga attack allowed to get about 30'' on froome, for me it's pretty difficult to classify it as a big attack. it's clearly not a dynamics which might make dimoulin surrender in the giro. race-spliting attack doesn't seem elementary too. the thing we part our views is probably you don't see any chance of dimoulin being second strongest climber in the race.