Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Either way, Quintana is back in the driver's seat and is now the favourite again at pretty much the same probability of winning he started the race on. So thats not all bad - what I fear the most are the people, if he wins, who now will point towards @poopgate as the reason for that and say he has won all of his GTs on luck, much like people like to diminish Nibali's achievements.

I like Quintana, I've preferred him of the top favourites to win almost every GT he has contested. He has no achievements in this race so far to diminish however, beyond a good ride on Blockhaus. Unless he does something to suggest otherwise in the remaining days, a GT win here would be primarily down to other people's misfortunes.

I don't say that because I have it in for Nairo. I say that because I'm not one of the unpaid lawyers every top rider seems to have on the forum, concerned only with justifying the greatness of their favourites.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Unless he does something to suggest otherwise in the remaining days, a GT win here would be primarily down to other people's misfortunes.

He's needs to take at least three minutes on Dumoulin and another minute on Nibali to win this. He might not need a long range attack to pull that off, but that would qualify as "something" in my book.

Also, "unpaid lawyers" is an oxymoron

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

I also think he will not win, but he definitely has a chance.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

DFA has not believed in Dumoulin since the beginning. And he'll probably be right by some dumb luck as usual. Just ignore it if you don't agree

 

[Netserk]

High mountain?

I guess the Vuelta is filled with high mountain stages...




Wow that altitude!!111!1!!one!!

Gosh! I think the stage even has 2500 vertical meters!!!!! SO EPIC!

 

[DFA123]

They are both obviously high mountain stages. I think perhaps too much time spent in the fantasy races thread has distorted your judgement.

 

[lenric]

LOL

 

[lenric]

High mountain it is not.

 

[Red Rick]

Seeing as Dumoulin is Dutch it may just be high regardless of altitude.

 

[DFA123]

If that isn't a high mountain, then neither is Lagos de Covadonga or Vesuvius. Which would obviously be ludricious.

 

[Netserk]

Dude, have you seen this monstrous high mountain stage :O

 

[carton]

Re:

Gosh! I think the stage even has 2500 vertical meters!!!!! SO EPIC!

Huh. The stage down from CdF-AdH in 2014 was about 2,700m. So was Formigal. Both after a string of tough stages.

 

[Forever The Best]

Keep it up, Netserk. You represent the traceurs and the people on the race design thread

 

[DFA123]

OK, I see you're just trolling now. That Vuelta stage obviously bears no relation to anything in this Giro last week.

To be honest whatever your extremely narrrow definition of 'high mountain' is doesn't really matter. The fact is that this last week of the Giro is brutally hard. Every single stage is putting serious physiological demands on the riders. Conserving energy and maximising recovery is going to be the way to win.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Dude, have you seen this monstrous high mountain stage :O

Did you know, the stage was so hard that Froome cracked in the end!!!11111!!1!!111!!!11!!!!!!eleven!111!

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

I think Dumoulin still has a strong chance. Today was 2,500+ metres - twice! Nothing over 2,200 meters now. Tomorrow he can recover and might actually suit him. If he recovers he wins. Miguel Indurain had never finished top 5 in 1991 either, that means nothing. There is of course doubt but your confident prediction that TD will fail in the next 4 days is unfounded based upon history and what we saw today.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

I think Dumoulin still has a strong chance. Today was 2,500+ metres - twice! Nothing over 2,200 meters now. Tomorrow he can recover and might actually suit him. . Miguel Indurain had never finished top 5 in 1991 either, that means nothing. There is of course doubt but your confident prediction that TD will fail in the next 4 days is unfounded based upon history and what we saw today.

What? His history of badly cracking the one previous time he was in with a shout of the GC? You nailed it with this comment though:

If he recovers he wins

He won't recover; there is nowhere to recover in this final week. His recovery was already in doubt, particularly compared with riders like Nibali and Quintana who traditionally thrive in the final week. And now he has already had to go harder than them, and lost 2 minutes of his advantage at the same time.

 

[lenric]

Re:

If that isn't a high mountain, then neither is Lagos de Covadonga or Vesuvius. Which would obviously be ludricious.

Put the altimetry here and I'll answer.

Anyway, Piancavallo (at least) isn't high mountain. That doesn't mean it's not hard, because it is.
Whether Dumoulin will be good or bad, however, is something that neither me, nor you, nor anyone else knows, so disregarding him, or overinflating Quintana's and Nibali's chances because of today is also ludicrous.

We don't know how tomorrow will be ridden and chances are that it will be a calm stage GC-wise, hence good for recovery.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

had it always worked like that, we would just never have newcomers in the club of grand tour winners.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If that isn't a high mountain, then neither is Lagos de Covadonga or Vesuvius. Which would obviously be ludricious.

Put the altimetry here and I'll answer.

Anyway, Piancavallo (at least) isn't high mountain. That doesn't mean it's not hard, because it is.
Whether Dumoulin will be good or bad, however, is something that neither me, nor you, nor anyone else knows, so disregarding him, or overinflating Quintana's and Nibali's chances because of today is also ludicrous.

We don't know how tomorrow will be ridden and chances are that it will be a calm stage GC-wise, hence good for recovery.

Fair enough, but the highlighted is one thing I disagree with. No-one is going to be recovering tomorrow; it's six hours in the saddle, 6000 calories burned and well over 3500m of climbing. It's all about damage limitation now, who can hold it together best over this brutal final week. And Dumoulin is already at a huge disadvantage, both because he has no track record of thriving late into a GT unlike his two main rivals, and because he had to go harder than them today. Plus he has a rubbish team and gets the s***s at altitude. It's all stacked against him now i'm afraid.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Incredible that people are still claiming Dumoulin as a favourite. He won't even finish on the podium.

Yeah, why would anyone think that with Dumoulin being the leader with 30sec advantage, with final TT in his favor, and with today's ride. It's beyond me

You'll see why in the next few days. There are two riders in 2nd and 3rd with multiple GT wins and podiums between them, within a minute or so of him. And one rider who has never finished top 5 and who had to go much harder than them both today, with four high mountain stages to come in the next four days. He has no chance.

I think Dumoulin still has a strong chance. Today was 2,500+ metres - twice! Nothing over 2,200 meters now. Tomorrow he can recover and might actually suit him. . Miguel Indurain had never finished top 5 in 1991 either, that means nothing. There is of course doubt but your confident prediction that TD will fail in the next 4 days is unfounded based upon history and what we saw today.

What? His history of badly cracking the one previous time he was in with a shout of the GC? You nailed it with this comment though:

If he recovers he wins

He won't recover; there is nowhere to recover in this final week. His recovery was already in doubt, particularly compared with riders like Nibali and Quintana who traditionally thrive in the final week. And now he has already had to go harder than them, and lost 2 minutes of his advantage at the same time.

You are not convincing me. What, his previous single occasion of cracking? Not much of sample pool there. Dumoulin was 24 years old in 2015 and didn't expect to be leading nor prepare specifically to win - final mountain stage of the 2015 Vuelta. That's not what I call solid history and your confidence is unfounded regardless if he wins this Giro or not. Fact is you don't know you are guessing. As for Quintana and Nibali, sport is full of reputations - reputations count for nought. Both look vulnerable to me but for different reasons.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Fair enough, but the highlighted is one thing I disagree with. No-one is going to be recovering tomorrow; it's six hours in the saddle, 6000 calories burned and well over 3500m of climbing. It's all about damage limitation now, who can hold it together best over this brutal final week. And Dumoulin is already at a huge disadvantage, both because he has no track record of thriving late into a GT unlike his two main rivals, and because he had to go harder than them today. Plus he has a rubbish team and gets the s***s at altitude. It's all stacked against him now i'm afraid.

Dumoulin has no track record of thriving late into GTs, right you are. However, that doesn't mean he has a record of a huge decay in form.
He wasn't great in one of the last Vuelta stages, but he wasn't aiming for GC there, so he had not prepared properly.

So, we're completely oblivious about how will he perform this week. That's not a disadvantage. Rather, it may be an advantage, because both Nibali and Quintana may be willing to risk based on unproven assumptions.

His only known disadvantage is his team. But having a team will be useless on the mountains if he has the legs to follow Quintana and Nibali.

Today he had to dig deeper, I agree. That may take a toll on him. However, we don't know if he'll bonk until saturday and lose a huge amount of time.

Moreover, there's an ITT. A flat and relatively long one, which is harmful to Quintana. Even more than the first one.


It's precisely because this week is so brutal that it may be so unpredictable that one can't say for sure that Dumoulin is *** up, or that Quintana has everything to win, or whatever.

 

[vass45]

I'm farily new in here - I like Nairo, always have and thought he was way over the odds yesterday prior to stage 16 which has has proven correct. Im not sure he is over the odds any more though....

Sure he can - and probably should still win this Giro, and he has these things in his favour;-

has best team
is the best climber
has more than enough time to set up buffer before final time trial
his bad days usually aren't that bad - and maybe he had that on stage 16


The negatives though are;-

Nairoo didn't attack more defended on stage 16 so the jury is still out on how he is feeling - is he 100%..??
Nibali looking really good and is only 41 seconds behind him
Dumo still has the pink jersey when it really looked like he'd lose it (and more time) to Nairo, and the fact remains Nairo will need to gap him by a couple of minutes before the final TT to feel totally confident


So Im speaking a bit through my pocket here - all in all I'm happy with where Nairo is at, but i think there is still a few unanswered questions, and I am very wary of Nibali magic. I may cover myself and put some $$ on Nibali as i now feel he is the main danger to Nairo. thoughts anyone...??