Here are my thoughts on the upcoming QBs in the draft. I've said over and over that QB is one of the most over-reached positions drafted, and yet I'm focusing on it...for entertainment purposes only.
Remember, The Greatest Show on Turf foundation was built when D
ick Vermeil happily drafted OT Orlando Pace #1 overall, and did pretty well when some undrafted guy named Kurt Warner started tossing laser guided missiles. Pace was a first ballot HOF player, btw.
With this, keep in mind there are many factors that make or break a QB. Being on a stabile franchise, a good coach, good players around you. A good support system. The ability to get knocked down, get back up, and win. That's really hard to gauge. I mean, Joe Montana had that in spades, and drafted in the 3rd round. Jim Plunkett was on some terrible teams with no pass protection early in his career...then won 2 SB with the Raiders. Then there's Tom Brady.
On the flip side, guys drafted too high have often never panned out, couldn't recover from losing games or adapt enough to make it in the NFL, or even seriously damaged the future of their teams. Scott Mitchell, JP Loseman, Rick Mirer. Is it their fault, or how high they were drafted, what they were thrown into, what was expected of them?
So many variables to one's success, in a team sport.
A look at history shows that good QBs drafted to bad teams, bad, messy, dysfunctional franchises, rarely turn those franchises around. Too big of a list to make here. The two together are a toxic mix. Look at Brady Quinn. The guy had the tools to be a good NFL QB. But came into the league with a huge ego, to a truly messed up Browns franchise, and by the time he got his head out of his rear, it was too late (great guy today!).
Then there are guys who flat out bust, for any number of reasons, most of them are in their head. Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, etc.
So with that, here's my spin at the roulette wheel of drafting NFL quarterbacks, looking at the 2023 draft.
Bryce Young - The positives are he's the one guy who looks like he could make it in the NFL. He seems to do most everything well. Quick reads. Accurate. Good under pressure. Moves well within the pocket. Eyes down field. He also seems like a team leader, and everyone around him echoes that. But the guy is tiny. Smaller than Kyler Murray. Less muscle, more like Colt McCoy, but shorter. He's, like, Kellen Moore tiny. Now, a quick search (no real data) tells me small QBs aren't actually hurt more than big guys. However, someone like Ben Roethlesberger's girth was so big it bought him an extra second in the pocket sometimes. Some defensive players in the NFL have said hitting Josh Allen is like running into a tight end. Young will either go #1 or #2 overall, likely to Houston. From there? I won't give odds on that team, or his success. He could maybe be like the next Kyler Murray. Maybe Russel Wilson, maybe, but run less? Or the next Tony Romo (who was bigger, but moved great within the pocket). Or the next Kellen Moore? Houston is in a total rebuild. But he will start from week 1, almost guaranteed, on any team.
CJ Stoud - To me this guy had the most hard to read, if not misleading film I watched. He looks like an NFL quarterback. Good size. Very good arm. Throws all over the field. Throws a lot, in a mostly pro set. Seems level headed. What's not to like? Well, if you watch with a keen eye, he threw a lot, an awful lot, from a clean pocket that gave him a lot of protection. Like, 1-2 seconds extra. He was throwing to the best receiver group in the NCAA. Many of those passes were to guys who were open, if not wide open. When under pressure, it was hard to find a lot of plays where he looked like an NFL quarterback. His accuracy dropped, or he took off early. This is one stat scouts apparently look at a lot no-pressure/pressure performance. And his ratio isn't good. To his credit, he had two nice throws in the playoff loss to Georgia that were under pressure. But NFL scouts and coaches also look for guys who can create. If Young looks like a guy who can create, keep plays alive, find the open guy in a pinch, I'm not sure CJ can. He's going to take a lot of work, or go to a really good team with a solid OL, and good receivers, if drafted in the top 10 and expected to start early his rookie year. The guy looks like perhaps the next EJ Manuel to me. Teddy Bridgewater (pre injury)? Jay Cutler? People mention the late Dwayne Haskins. That's too hard to say. At worst? The next Cardale Jones.
Will Levis - If you look at the NFL, how many guys look like Bryce Young (2? 1? 0?)? How many look like Will Levis (20? 25?). Similar to Stroud, film was hard to read. At times he really looks like an NFL quarterback. Huge arm. Can make throws across the entire field. Had some beautiful throws under pressure starting at the left hashmark, throwing 50+ yards (in the air) to an out past the right hash mark sideline, effortlessly. Aaron Rodgers like pass. But he seems to force some balls, he would hesitate at times, double pump (not as a fake) or tap the ball first on others. His footwork was sometimes good, sometimes iffy. He could move around the pocket, but not as well as Young. Played on a crummy offense, unlike CJ. Seems like a determined guy, will be 24 when drafted, and expected to start in the first season, if not week 1. He's being compared to Josh Allen, but that's way too high of a standard. Seems, at best, like a young Joe Flacco (good when young, remember?), maybe Stafford when in Detroit? Could be like Kirk Cousins? Is that good or bad? At worst? Brandon Weeden (statue with baseball pitcher fastball arm, stuck in Cleveland), or Jacob Eason.
Anthony Richardson - This guy is a physical specimen. I'm not even sure what to make of him. Can make throws over 70 yards in the air, all over the entire field. Can run like a gazelle, even hurdling defenders. But watching him, then watching a refined NFL QB is almost painful. It's like he needs at least some work in every possible way. Mechanics, reads, footwork, everything. And he takes off and runs, a lot. He's like the next Colin Kaepernick, except Kaep went through progressions better, and was more accurate. Wait, are you saying Kaep didn't go through progressions well? Wasn't really that accurate? You got my point. Some people are saying he's the next Cam Netwon. I went back and watched some of Cam at Auburn, and early in the NFL. Cam had pretty good mechanics. Pulled the trigger a lot faster. He was good at throwing 15 yard darts in coverage to his guy, even going back to college. Cam seemed to understand if he had a receiver fairly open 10+ yards down the field on a pattern they had practiced, to whistle the ball in there, and call it good. Not always, but often. Then look for another guy, or run on a broken play, or run in a designed run. Richardson as a long, long way to go to get to that level. I can see him coming into the NFL, and in some plays running by and over people, putting up a few games with big numbers, and a few bad picks. His pre-season will be wild, sensational, maybe, mistake filled maybe. But I also see NFL defenses and DCs adapting to him faster than he can grow if he's thrown out there. Huge risk, but someone will take a flyer on him. Risk too high if expected to start in year 1. Maybe longer.
Hendon Hooker - This guy missed most of the year with a torn ACL, otherwise, would have been a guy expected to go in round 1. He is a standard do-most-well type of QB. Good arm, good reads, very quick release and throws really nice passes over the middle of the field. Saw a few beautiful Warren Moon like spirals. Quick with progressions. But he also played in an air raid, and faced only slightly more pressure than CJ. When he did, he seemed to have happy feet, made risky throws, or got sacked. When flushed out, he often just ran, not looking down field. That won't work long in the NFL. Adapting to an NFL offense that isn't pass heavy, with lots of shotgun, will be a real learning curve. Interviews seems very level headed, like could be a good team leader. He'll be 25 on week 1 of the NFL, and must be expected to start in his first year at some point. Reminds me a bit of Derek Carr, or Dak, when both were younger and more fleet of foot perhaps. Good arms, play quick, but make risky throws. At worst he's the next Andre Ware, who never adapted to the NFL.
Tanner McKee - Stanford QB. Looks the part. Good arm. Played on some crummy teams but hung in there. Good at throws in the mid-range. Seemed to throw the ball hard, a lot. That doesn't mean he's the next Brett Favre though. I didn't watch that much on him. I'll just say I don't think he's the next Andrew Luck, but I think he could be better than Kevin Hogan. How's that?
Aiden McConnell - Purdue. This guy at times looked like an NFL QB, moving around, throwing well under pressure. Would scramble then run, eyes downfield. His arm seems average to me. He had his share of picks, and most were downfield. On a lot of deep throws he seemed to have to heave the ball, though it got there. The next Billy Kilmer perhaps?!? Could compete for a backup role in 2023, and have a shot at starting in 2024?
Jaren Hall - BYU - This is the guy who kind of lit up the Senior Bowl. Big arm. Able to make most any NFL throw, but not the cannon Richardson, or Levis have. Didn't watch a lot on him. He seemed to play "calm", which reminded me of Dak, Burrow, Matt Ryan. Not saying he's that good. No. But I think he could get drafted by the 3rd round, and start for a team in, maybe before, 2024. I think he's 24 also. So time is a factor.
Stetson Bennett - Looked good playing for an incredible team with a great OL. Not a great arm. Not very big. Likely to go around the 6th-8th round maybe. Could be the next Sam Ehlinger? AJ McCarren? Greg McElroy? Low expectations may help.
Max Duggan - This is the guy who looked terrible against Georgia, and played just as bad in the Senior bowl. Looked like a solid QB, good read option before that, but against elite competition, his stock likely dropped to mid, or late round. I only mention him as he got a lot of media coverage, and some hype. Someone said he could be the next Kenny Pickett. Well, he doesn't have Pickett's arm. Maybe the next...Mitch Trubisky? He ran the RPO in college, right? (Gulp!).
Whew!