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National Football League

Page 623 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Since it's a rebuilding year for Tampa, I don't see any reason why not to go with Trask. The only thing is, if they did sign Carr, or Garappolo, that guy instantly becomes the best QB in that entire division. Same goes with Carr to NO for that matter (where I think he's going to end up).

The Atlantic is reporting last year Russell Wilson went to the Seahawk ownership (link) telling them to fire Pete Carroll and John Schneider, because they were holding him back from winning awards. He denies it, and the team had no comment. Pretty wild.

I really liked this article by Brad Gagnon at Bleacher Report (link) about how Aaron Rodgers isn't worth $60m, and won't be a cure-all for another team. I fully agree 100% with all he wrote. Spot on.

Any of you Seattle folks going to any XFL games? Seats as cheap as $18. Best seats in the house in the Club section just $114. I think those are like $400 at Seahawk games, right? Of course, this wouldn't be the Seahawks playing either.
One of the radio talking heads made a really good point: Rodger's ceiling is higher than the 'other options', but there is no indication that he can ever get to that ceiling again and he can destroy a locker room while being mediocre and costing too much.
 
Here are my thoughts on the upcoming QBs in the draft. I've said over and over that QB is one of the most over-reached positions drafted, and yet I'm focusing on it...for entertainment purposes only. ;)

Remember, The Greatest Show on Turf foundation was built when Dick Vermeil happily drafted OT Orlando Pace #1 overall, and did pretty well when some undrafted guy named Kurt Warner started tossing laser guided missiles. Pace was a first ballot HOF player, btw.

With this, keep in mind there are many factors that make or break a QB. Being on a stabile franchise, a good coach, good players around you. A good support system. The ability to get knocked down, get back up, and win. That's really hard to gauge. I mean, Joe Montana had that in spades, and drafted in the 3rd round. Jim Plunkett was on some terrible teams with no pass protection early in his career...then won 2 SB with the Raiders. Then there's Tom Brady.

On the flip side, guys drafted too high have often never panned out, couldn't recover from losing games or adapt enough to make it in the NFL, or even seriously damaged the future of their teams. Scott Mitchell, JP Loseman, Rick Mirer. Is it their fault, or how high they were drafted, what they were thrown into, what was expected of them?

So many variables to one's success, in a team sport.

A look at history shows that good QBs drafted to bad teams, bad, messy, dysfunctional franchises, rarely turn those franchises around. Too big of a list to make here. The two together are a toxic mix. Look at Brady Quinn. The guy had the tools to be a good NFL QB. But came into the league with a huge ego, to a truly messed up Browns franchise, and by the time he got his head out of his rear, it was too late (great guy today!).

Then there are guys who flat out bust, for any number of reasons, most of them are in their head. Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, etc.

So with that, here's my spin at the roulette wheel of drafting NFL quarterbacks, looking at the 2023 draft.

Bryce Young - The positives are he's the one guy who looks like he could make it in the NFL. He seems to do most everything well. Quick reads. Accurate. Good under pressure. Moves well within the pocket. Eyes down field. He also seems like a team leader, and everyone around him echoes that. But the guy is tiny. Smaller than Kyler Murray. Less muscle, more like Colt McCoy, but shorter. He's, like, Kellen Moore tiny. Now, a quick search (no real data) tells me small QBs aren't actually hurt more than big guys. However, someone like Ben Roethlesberger's girth was so big it bought him an extra second in the pocket sometimes. Some defensive players in the NFL have said hitting Josh Allen is like running into a tight end. Young will either go #1 or #2 overall, likely to Houston. From there? I won't give odds on that team, or his success. He could maybe be like the next Kyler Murray. Maybe Russel Wilson, maybe, but run less? Or the next Tony Romo (who was bigger, but moved great within the pocket). Or the next Kellen Moore? Houston is in a total rebuild. But he will start from week 1, almost guaranteed, on any team.

CJ Stoud - To me this guy had the most hard to read, if not misleading film I watched. He looks like an NFL quarterback. Good size. Very good arm. Throws all over the field. Throws a lot, in a mostly pro set. Seems level headed. What's not to like? Well, if you watch with a keen eye, he threw a lot, an awful lot, from a clean pocket that gave him a lot of protection. Like, 1-2 seconds extra. He was throwing to the best receiver group in the NCAA. Many of those passes were to guys who were open, if not wide open. When under pressure, it was hard to find a lot of plays where he looked like an NFL quarterback. His accuracy dropped, or he took off early. This is one stat scouts apparently look at a lot no-pressure/pressure performance. And his ratio isn't good. To his credit, he had two nice throws in the playoff loss to Georgia that were under pressure. But NFL scouts and coaches also look for guys who can create. If Young looks like a guy who can create, keep plays alive, find the open guy in a pinch, I'm not sure CJ can. He's going to take a lot of work, or go to a really good team with a solid OL, and good receivers, if drafted in the top 10 and expected to start early his rookie year. The guy looks like perhaps the next EJ Manuel to me. Teddy Bridgewater (pre injury)? Jay Cutler? People mention the late Dwayne Haskins. That's too hard to say. At worst? The next Cardale Jones.

Will Levis - If you look at the NFL, how many guys look like Bryce Young (2? 1? 0?)? How many look like Will Levis (20? 25?). Similar to Stroud, film was hard to read. At times he really looks like an NFL quarterback. Huge arm. Can make throws across the entire field. Had some beautiful throws under pressure starting at the left hashmark, throwing 50+ yards (in the air) to an out past the right hash mark sideline, effortlessly. Aaron Rodgers like pass. But he seems to force some balls, he would hesitate at times, double pump (not as a fake) or tap the ball first on others. His footwork was sometimes good, sometimes iffy. He could move around the pocket, but not as well as Young. Played on a crummy offense, unlike CJ. Seems like a determined guy, will be 24 when drafted, and expected to start in the first season, if not week 1. He's being compared to Josh Allen, but that's way too high of a standard. Seems, at best, like a young Joe Flacco (good when young, remember?), maybe Stafford when in Detroit? Could be like Kirk Cousins? Is that good or bad? At worst? Brandon Weeden (statue with baseball pitcher fastball arm, stuck in Cleveland), or Jacob Eason.

Anthony Richardson - This guy is a physical specimen. I'm not even sure what to make of him. Can make throws over 70 yards in the air, all over the entire field. Can run like a gazelle, even hurdling defenders. But watching him, then watching a refined NFL QB is almost painful. It's like he needs at least some work in every possible way. Mechanics, reads, footwork, everything. And he takes off and runs, a lot. He's like the next Colin Kaepernick, except Kaep went through progressions better, and was more accurate. Wait, are you saying Kaep didn't go through progressions well? Wasn't really that accurate? You got my point. Some people are saying he's the next Cam Netwon. I went back and watched some of Cam at Auburn, and early in the NFL. Cam had pretty good mechanics. Pulled the trigger a lot faster. He was good at throwing 15 yard darts in coverage to his guy, even going back to college. Cam seemed to understand if he had a receiver fairly open 10+ yards down the field on a pattern they had practiced, to whistle the ball in there, and call it good. Not always, but often. Then look for another guy, or run on a broken play, or run in a designed run. Richardson as a long, long way to go to get to that level. I can see him coming into the NFL, and in some plays running by and over people, putting up a few games with big numbers, and a few bad picks. His pre-season will be wild, sensational, maybe, mistake filled maybe. But I also see NFL defenses and DCs adapting to him faster than he can grow if he's thrown out there. Huge risk, but someone will take a flyer on him. Risk too high if expected to start in year 1. Maybe longer.

Hendon Hooker - This guy missed most of the year with a torn ACL, otherwise, would have been a guy expected to go in round 1. He is a standard do-most-well type of QB. Good arm, good reads, very quick release and throws really nice passes over the middle of the field. Saw a few beautiful Warren Moon like spirals. Quick with progressions. But he also played in an air raid, and faced only slightly more pressure than CJ. When he did, he seemed to have happy feet, made risky throws, or got sacked. When flushed out, he often just ran, not looking down field. That won't work long in the NFL. Adapting to an NFL offense that isn't pass heavy, with lots of shotgun, will be a real learning curve. Interviews seems very level headed, like could be a good team leader. He'll be 25 on week 1 of the NFL, and must be expected to start in his first year at some point. Reminds me a bit of Derek Carr, or Dak, when both were younger and more fleet of foot perhaps. Good arms, play quick, but make risky throws. At worst he's the next Andre Ware, who never adapted to the NFL.

Tanner McKee - Stanford QB. Looks the part. Good arm. Played on some crummy teams but hung in there. Good at throws in the mid-range. Seemed to throw the ball hard, a lot. That doesn't mean he's the next Brett Favre though. I didn't watch that much on him. I'll just say I don't think he's the next Andrew Luck, but I think he could be better than Kevin Hogan. How's that?

Aiden McConnell - Purdue. This guy at times looked like an NFL QB, moving around, throwing well under pressure. Would scramble then run, eyes downfield. His arm seems average to me. He had his share of picks, and most were downfield. On a lot of deep throws he seemed to have to heave the ball, though it got there. The next Billy Kilmer perhaps?!? Could compete for a backup role in 2023, and have a shot at starting in 2024?

Jaren Hall - BYU - This is the guy who kind of lit up the Senior Bowl. Big arm. Able to make most any NFL throw, but not the cannon Richardson, or Levis have. Didn't watch a lot on him. He seemed to play "calm", which reminded me of Dak, Burrow, Matt Ryan. Not saying he's that good. No. But I think he could get drafted by the 3rd round, and start for a team in, maybe before, 2024. I think he's 24 also. So time is a factor.

Stetson Bennett - Looked good playing for an incredible team with a great OL. Not a great arm. Not very big. Likely to go around the 6th-8th round maybe. Could be the next Sam Ehlinger? AJ McCarren? Greg McElroy? Low expectations may help.

Max Duggan - This is the guy who looked terrible against Georgia, and played just as bad in the Senior bowl. Looked like a solid QB, good read option before that, but against elite competition, his stock likely dropped to mid, or late round. I only mention him as he got a lot of media coverage, and some hype. Someone said he could be the next Kenny Pickett. Well, he doesn't have Pickett's arm. Maybe the next...Mitch Trubisky? He ran the RPO in college, right? (Gulp!).

Whew!
 
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Since it's a rebuilding year for Tampa, I don't see any reason why not to go with Trask. The only thing is, if they did sign Carr, or Garappolo, that guy instantly becomes the best QB in that entire division. Same goes with Carr to NO for that matter (where I think he's going to end up).

The Atlantic is reporting last year Russell Wilson went to the Seahawk ownership (link) telling them to fire Pete Carroll and John Schneider, because they were holding him back from winning awards. He denies it, and the team had no comment. Pretty wild.

I really liked this article by Brad Gagnon at Bleacher Report (link) about how Aaron Rodgers isn't worth $60m, and won't be a cure-all for another team. I fully agree 100% with all he wrote. Spot on.

Any of you Seattle folks going to any XFL games? Seats as cheap as $18. Best seats in the house in the Club section just $114. I think those are like $400 at Seahawk games, right? Of course, this wouldn't be the Seahawks playing either.
Interesting that a relatively (credible source like the Atlantic would care about Russell ) -this turned out to be misreported: it was the Athletic...never heard of them: but if it happened it was another indicator of Russell taking future strategy advice from the Positive Reinforcement of His Greatness voices bouncing around in his head. When he publicly voiced ambitions about team management and ownership shares I'm sure every dude on the squad said "whaaaat? No way that guy would be my boss off the field." When the 'tude spread to the lockeroom it was a done deal.
It could be rumor and the last time Jody Allen and I never had drinks she didn't mention it.
 
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I think Bruce Young is overrated. He's also too short with some scouting reports having him only at 5-11 (we'll see what he measures up to at the combine). If you're not at least 6-3 it's difficult to play QB in this league. With these lineman going 6-5 & up these days, they have to be able see over these monsters otherwise you end up having to roll out of the pocket these short QBs & that in itself creates problems with the speed of these stud DEs & LBs that'll pressure the heck out of these QBs.

Richardson is also overrated. He only played one full season as the starter at Florida. His passing stats weren't all that impressive (only 54% pct - 17 TDs/9 INT). With his tremendous size & speed (he's built like Derrick Henry), he's an effective runner but here's another dual-threat QB that's probably going to run the ball a lot in the pros which creates a higher injury risk than that of a pro-style QBs. Geez...where do we see this problem with the dual-threats running RPO in the league consequently getting injured & missing multiple games.

Bennett could be this draft's "Mr. Irrelevant." Lol. But no matter where he's drafted he'll probably end up getting a spot as some team's 3rd QB & being a fan favorite. He could end being a "Gordon Minshew" type player eventually seeing some spot duty for the injured starter(s).

Stroud looks to be the real deal. His stats at OSU in just 2 full seasons as a starter were phenomenal! Ron Day didn't run RPO with Stroud (OSU is traditionally RPO with prior QBs) but instead went with a pro-style offense which suited him well (who was a pro-style recruit coming out of HS). He's got the height, arm strength, velocity & accuracy, quickness & agility to scramble & football smarts to succeed in the NFL. He could be the #1 OA (Texans) - certainly a top 5 pick at the least.
 
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Love that story about Chad!

Jalen Ramsey is a star CB, but he's also due $17m in 2023, then $18m and $19m the next two years. He's still good, so some team will pay for him. A team already good, with some cap space, hoping he can help put them over. Then figure out a way to restructure his contract, without killing them in future debt or dead money.

The Rams still need money after cutting Wagner, and if they trade Ramsey, and I'm not sure how many draft picks they gave away that still impact them. Not looking it up. If Stafford were to retire, that would really help them rebuild.

Remember, rebuild doesn't mean what it did in the 1990s. Two years ago the Eagles won just 4 games.
Stroud looks to be the real deal. His stats at OSU in just 2 full seasons as a starter were phenomenal! ...
How much of him did you watch? I went back and watched a lot of film recently. A lot of his great play has to do with the fact he had an incredible OL that often gave him enough time to order Door Dash. He was also throwing to the best receiver corps in the entire NCAA, guys often open. His no pressure vs. under pressure stats drop considerably. That has me worried. Maybe the team with the best pass protection in the NFL will draft him?! According to PFF, that team is...(looking it up), the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh...Let's see who's #2? The Kansas City Chiefs. Hmm, probably not going there either. But seriously, he has the arm, and going to the right team is as good as anyone else in this draft as far as QBs go. Still, looks like maybe the next EJ Manuel to me.

Comparing Bennet to Gardner Minshew isn't a bad one! But he's shorter than Minshew. He's almost as short as Young.

Agree on the others. Did you watch any film on Levis?

To me it's not only that Young is only short, he's also small. 6' and 204lbs seems really generous to me. I'll believe that when I see it. He has a real small frame. Smaller than Colt McCoy, and shorter. He's built like Kellen Moore. That's about how big he is, or smaller. Is Young even showing up at the Combine? Some guys put all their eggs into their Pro Day, often top QB prospects. He is able to throw the ball all over, make plays. But in the NFL he'll have to be rolling out a lot of the time to even see the field I'm afraid. Then hope he doesn't get clobbered. As I wrote in my post earlier, you see 20-25 QBs in the NFL built like CJ, or Levis. You see almost no one built like Young, especially considering he's smaller than Murray, or Wilson.

Little faith in this year's QB crop. I've said this a dozen times. How so many QBs get overdrafted. This year will be no different.
 
Love that story about Chad!

Jalen Ramsey is a star CB, but he's also due $17m in 2023, then $18m and $19m the next two years. He's still good, so some team will pay for him. A team already good, with some cap space, hoping he can help put them over. Then figure out a way to restructure his contract, without killing them in future debt or dead money.

The Rams still need money after cutting Wagner, and if they trade Ramsey, and I'm not sure how many draft picks they gave away that still impact them. Not looking it up. If Stafford were to retire, that would really help them rebuild.

Remember, rebuild doesn't mean what it did in the 1990s. Two years ago the Eagles won just 4 games.

How much of him did you watch? I went back and watched a lot of film recently. A lot of his great play has to do with the fact he had an incredible OL that often gave him enough time to order Door Dash. He was also throwing to the best receiver corps in the entire NCAA, guys often open. His no pressure vs. under pressure stats drop considerably. That has me worried. Maybe the team with the best pass protection in the NFL will draft him?! According to PFF, that team is...(looking it up), the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh...Let's see who's #2? The Kansas City Chiefs. Hmm, probably not going there either. But seriously, he has the arm, and going to the right team is as good as anyone else in this draft as far as QBs go. Still, looks like maybe the next EJ Manuel to me.

Comparing Bennet to Gardner Minshew isn't a bad one! But he's shorter than Minshew. He's almost as short as Young.

Agree on the others. Did you watch any film on Levis?

To me it's not only that Young is only short, he's also small. 6' and 204lbs seems really generous to me. I'll believe that when I see it. He has a real small frame. Smaller than Colt McCoy, and shorter. He's built like Kellen Moore. That's about how big he is, or smaller. Is Young even showing up at the Combine? Some guys put all their eggs into their Pro Day, often top QB prospects. He is able to throw the ball all over, make plays. But in the NFL he'll have to be rolling out a lot of the time to even see the field I'm afraid. Then hope he doesn't get clobbered. As I wrote in my post earlier, you see 20-25 QBs in the NFL built like CJ, or Levis. You see almost no one built like Young, especially considering he's smaller than Murray, or Wilson.

Little faith in this year's QB crop. I've said this a dozen times. How so many QBs get overdrafted. This year will be no different.
Yes I don't see Stafford and Donald playing for more than one or two more seasons. Donald was reportedly close to retirement after the SB win but money has miraculous powers of persuasion............Stafford was beaten up last season especially with a third string O line. The lack of depth on the Rams roster finally started to bite when they racked up quite a few injuries and over using Kupp on the offense ended in injury as well. Trading Ramsey now is probably a good move same with letting Wagner go.

Chad did his own thing !
 
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Here are my thoughts on the upcoming QBs in the draft. I've said over and over that QB is one of the most over-reached positions drafted, and yet I'm focusing on it...for entertainment purposes only. ;)

Remember, The Greatest Show on Turf foundation was built when Dick Vermeil happily drafted OT Orlando Pace #1 overall, and did pretty well when some undrafted guy named Kurt Warner started tossing laser guided missiles. Pace was a first ballot HOF player, btw.

With this, keep in mind there are many factors that make or break a QB. Being on a stabile franchise, a good coach, good players around you. A good support system. The ability to get knocked down, get back up, and win. That's really hard to gauge. I mean, Joe Montana had that in spades, and drafted in the 3rd round. Jim Plunkett was on some terrible teams with no pass protection early in his career...then won 2 SB with the Raiders. Then there's Tom Brady.

On the flip side, guys drafted too high have often never panned out, couldn't recover from losing games or adapt enough to make it in the NFL, or even seriously damaged the future of their teams. Scott Mitchell, JP Loseman, Rick Mirer. Is it their fault, or how high they were drafted, what they were thrown into, what was expected of them?

So many variables to one's success, in a team sport.

A look at history shows that good QBs drafted to bad teams, bad, messy, dysfunctional franchises, rarely turn those franchises around. Too big of a list to make here. The two together are a toxic mix. Look at Brady Quinn. The guy had the tools to be a good NFL QB. But came into the league with a huge ego, to a truly messed up Browns franchise, and by the time he got his head out of his rear, it was too late (great guy today!).

Then there are guys who flat out bust, for any number of reasons, most of them are in their head. Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, etc.

So with that, here's my spin at the roulette wheel of drafting NFL quarterbacks, looking at the 2023 draft.

Bryce Young - The positives are he's the one guy who looks like he could make it in the NFL. He seems to do most everything well. Quick reads. Accurate. Good under pressure. Moves well within the pocket. Eyes down field. He also seems like a team leader, and everyone around him echoes that. But the guy is tiny. Smaller than Kyler Murray. Less muscle, more like Colt McCoy, but shorter. He's, like, Kellen Moore tiny. Now, a quick search (no real data) tells me small QBs aren't actually hurt more than big guys. However, someone like Ben Roethlesberger's girth was so big it bought him an extra second in the pocket sometimes. Some defensive players in the NFL have said hitting Josh Allen is like running into a tight end. Young will either go #1 or #2 overall, likely to Houston. From there? I won't give odds on that team, or his success. He could maybe be like the next Kyler Murray. Maybe Russel Wilson, maybe, but run less? Or the next Tony Romo (who was bigger, but moved great within the pocket). Or the next Kellen Moore? Houston is in a total rebuild. But he will start from week 1, almost guaranteed, on any team.

CJ Stoud - To me this guy had the most hard to read, if not misleading film I watched. He looks like an NFL quarterback. Good size. Very good arm. Throws all over the field. Throws a lot, in a mostly pro set. Seems level headed. What's not to like? Well, if you watch with a keen eye, he threw a lot, an awful lot, from a clean pocket that gave him a lot of protection. Like, 1-2 seconds extra. He was throwing to the best receiver group in the NCAA. Many of those passes were to guys who were open, if not wide open. When under pressure, it was hard to find a lot of plays where he looked like an NFL quarterback. His accuracy dropped, or he took off early. This is one stat scouts apparently look at a lot no-pressure/pressure performance. And his ratio isn't good. To his credit, he had two nice throws in the playoff loss to Georgia that were under pressure. But NFL scouts and coaches also look for guys who can create. If Young looks like a guy who can create, keep plays alive, find the open guy in a pinch, I'm not sure CJ can. He's going to take a lot of work, or go to a really good team with a solid OL, and good receivers, if drafted in the top 10 and expected to start early his rookie year. The guy looks like perhaps the next EJ Manuel to me. Teddy Bridgewater (pre injury)? Jay Cutler? People mention the late Dwayne Haskins. That's too hard to say. At worst? The next Cardale Jones.

Will Levis - If you look at the NFL, how many guys look like Bryce Young (2? 1? 0?)? How many look like Will Levis (20? 25?). Similar to Stroud, film was hard to read. At times he really looks like an NFL quarterback. Huge arm. Can make throws across the entire field. Had some beautiful throws under pressure starting at the left hashmark, throwing 50+ yards (in the air) to an out past the right hash mark sideline, effortlessly. Aaron Rodgers like pass. But he seems to force some balls, he would hesitate at times, double pump (not as a fake) or tap the ball first on others. His footwork was sometimes good, sometimes iffy. He could move around the pocket, but not as well as Young. Played on a crummy offense, unlike CJ. Seems like a determined guy, will be 24 when drafted, and expected to start in the first season, if not week 1. He's being compared to Josh Allen, but that's way too high of a standard. Seems, at best, like a young Joe Flacco (good when young, remember?), maybe Stafford when in Detroit? Could be like Kirk Cousins? Is that good or bad? At worst? Brandon Weeden (statue with baseball pitcher fastball arm, stuck in Cleveland), or Jacob Eason.

Anthony Richardson - This guy is a physical specimen. I'm not even sure what to make of him. Can make throws over 70 yards in the air, all over the entire field. Can run like a gazelle, even hurdling defenders. But watching him, then watching a refined NFL QB is almost painful. It's like he needs at least some work in every possible way. Mechanics, reads, footwork, everything. And he takes off and runs, a lot. He's like the next Colin Kaepernick, except Kaep went through progressions better, and was more accurate. Wait, are you saying Kaep didn't go through progressions well? Wasn't really that accurate? You got my point. Some people are saying he's the next Cam Netwon. I went back and watched some of Cam at Auburn, and early in the NFL. Cam had pretty good mechanics. Pulled the trigger a lot faster. He was good at throwing 15 yard darts in coverage to his guy, even going back to college. Cam seemed to understand if he had a receiver fairly open 10+ yards down the field on a pattern they had practiced, to whistle the ball in there, and call it good. Not always, but often. Then look for another guy, or run on a broken play, or run in a designed run. Richardson as a long, long way to go to get to that level. I can see him coming into the NFL, and in some plays running by and over people, putting up a few games with big numbers, and a few bad picks. His pre-season will be wild, sensational, maybe, mistake filled maybe. But I also see NFL defenses and DCs adapting to him faster than he can grow if he's thrown out there. Huge risk, but someone will take a flyer on him. Risk too high if expected to start in year 1. Maybe longer.

Hendon Hooker - This guy missed most of the year with a torn ACL, otherwise, would have been a guy expected to go in round 1. He is a standard do-most-well type of QB. Good arm, good reads, very quick release and throws really nice passes over the middle of the field. Saw a few beautiful Warren Moon like spirals. Quick with progressions. But he also played in an air raid, and faced only slightly more pressure than CJ. When he did, he seemed to have happy feet, made risky throws, or got sacked. When flushed out, he often just ran, not looking down field. That won't work long in the NFL. Adapting to an NFL offense that isn't pass heavy, with lots of shotgun, will be a real learning curve. Interviews seems very level headed, like could be a good team leader. He'll be 25 on week 1 of the NFL, and must be expected to start in his first year at some point. Reminds me a bit of Derek Carr, or Dak, when both were younger and more fleet of foot perhaps. Good arms, play quick, but make risky throws. At worst he's the next Andre Ware, who never adapted to the NFL.

Tanner McKee - Stanford QB. Looks the part. Good arm. Played on some crummy teams but hung in there. Good at throws in the mid-range. Seemed to throw the ball hard, a lot. That doesn't mean he's the next Brett Favre though. I didn't watch that much on him. I'll just say I don't think he's the next Andrew Luck, but I think he could be better than Kevin Hogan. How's that?

Aiden McConnell - Purdue. This guy at times looked like an NFL QB, moving around, throwing well under pressure. Would scramble then run, eyes downfield. His arm seems average to me. He had his share of picks, and most were downfield. On a lot of deep throws he seemed to have to heave the ball, though it got there. The next Billy Kilmer perhaps?!? Could compete for a backup role in 2023, and have a shot at starting in 2024?

Jaren Hall - BYU - This is the guy who kind of lit up the Senior Bowl. Big arm. Able to make most any NFL throw, but not the cannon Richardson, or Levis have. Didn't watch a lot on him. He seemed to play "calm", which reminded me of Dak, Burrow, Matt Ryan. Not saying he's that good. No. But I think he could get drafted by the 3rd round, and start for a team in, maybe before, 2024. I think he's 24 also. So time is a factor.

Stetson Bennett - Looked good playing for an incredible team with a great OL. Not a great arm. Not very big. Likely to go around the 6th-8th round maybe. Could be the next Sam Ehlinger? AJ McCarren? Greg McElroy? Low expectations may help.

Max Duggan - This is the guy who looked terrible against Georgia, and played just as bad in the Senior bowl. Looked like a solid QB, good read option before that, but against elite competition, his stock likely dropped to mid, or late round. I only mention him as he got a lot of media coverage, and some hype. Someone said he could be the next Kenny Pickett. Well, he doesn't have Pickett's arm. Maybe the next...Mitch Trubisky? He ran the RPO in college, right? (Gulp!).

Whew!
NICE! A lot of great scouting there Alpe!

Be nice to Kellen please! He's a great football mind stuck in a body like mine. :p To top it off, he is one of the nicest athletes you will ever meet. Of course that doesn't make a great NFL QB.

Bryce Young is probably the most 'athletic' QB who will get thrown to the wolves this year. His size could be a concern simply because he will go to a team that won't be able to help him out too much. Durability will likely be an issue. I would like to know his real HT/WT because I've seen as tall as 6'1"/210 (BS!), ESPN has him listed at 6'/195 (that's a stretch too IMO). Compare that to a guy who is just as athletic, Lamar Jackson at 3+" taller and 30 pounds heavier. He and RW might be the same height, but Russ is at least 15 pounds heavier. By all accounts BY is a guy who will put in the work, but he's not going to put on 15+ lbs IMO, and at 21 (almost 22 I think) he likely won't get taller. He is Doug Flutie size.

DF is the segue into the discussion of: "Do smaller QBs have more injuries?". Its almost impossible to do any math on that because there just aren't enough of them, plus it depends on their style of play and/or their team (the O line they play behind, the WR/RB...).

In college BY was just so much more athletic/faster than those pursuing him that he could escape/gain yards. In the NFL he won't have that luxury. He will get knocked down for a loss (way) more than a guy like Allen.

IMO, the most successful QB to come out of the draft is not going to be one of the guys that we all expect. You mentioned Hall and O'Connell...

EDIT: If Stroud wasn't so hyped (some rightly so), he could be the unexpected guy from the 3rd round.
 
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How much of him did you watch? I went back and watched a lot of film recently. A lot of his great play has to do with the fact he had an incredible OL that often gave him enough time to order Door Dash. He was also throwing to the best receiver corps in the entire NCAA, guys often open. His no pressure vs. under pressure stats drop considerably. That has me worried. Maybe the team with the best pass protection in the NFL will draft him?! According to PFF, that team is...(looking it up), the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh...Let's see who's #2? The Kansas City Chiefs. Hmm, probably not going there either. But seriously, he has the arm, and going to the right team is as good as anyone else in this draft as far as QBs go. Still, looks like maybe the next EJ Manuel to me.

Comparing Bennet to Gardner Minshew isn't a bad one! But he's shorter than Minshew. He's almost as short as Young.

Agree on the others. Did you watch any film on Levis?

To me it's not only that Young is only short, he's also small. 6' and 204lbs seems really generous to me. I'll believe that when I see it. He has a real small frame. Smaller than Colt McCoy, and shorter. He's built like Kellen Moore. That's about how big he is, or smaller. Is Young even showing up at the Combine? Some guys put all their eggs into their Pro Day, often top QB prospects. He is able to throw the ball all over, make plays. But in the NFL he'll have to be rolling out a lot of the time to even see the field I'm afraid. Then hope he doesn't get clobbered. As I wrote in my post earlier, you see 20-25 QBs in the NFL built like CJ, or Levis. You see almost no one built like Young, especially considering he's smaller than Murray, or Wilson.

Little faith in this year's QB crop. I've said this a dozen times. How so many QBs get overdrafted. This year will be no different.
I caught almost every OSU game on the tube. Saturday is my big college football day having access to all the ESPN channels, FOX Sports1, PAC-12 Network, CBS Sports etc. And having played a little D-1 football back in the old days (and my son playing D-2 football for a couple of years recently ), college football has always been an interest of mine over the decades. However, I don't go back & look at film for the most part - I just don't have the time.

Yeah sure, Stroud had an incredible OL line but so did Young. These top notch programs like OSU, Bama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, ND, etc. all have 4 & 5-star offensive lineman. In fact, Bama is 5-star at just about every position. All Saban has to do is just sit back & re-load the offense with all the top recruits approaching his Kingdom down there in Tuscaloosa. Lol.

In the Michigan loss, Stroud didn't play very well throwing 2 picks that Michigan converted to scores (he only threw 6 picks the entire year). In the loss to Georgia in the playoffs, he played phenomenal throwing for 350 yds & 4 TDs with that spectacular 2nd half comeback where they lost 42-41 playing the #1 Defense in the nation. In two seasons, Stroud threw for 7,775 yds & a whopping 81 TDs & only 12 picks! Compare that to Burrow's 2 yrs at LSU, including a national championship season - 8,800 yds/78 TDs & 11 picks. And Burrow had a 5-star OL, all-world receivers, 4 & 5-star stud RBs, etc.

I haven't watched any film on Levis & saw maybe one or two of Kentucky's games last year. His stats weren't the greatest but if there's any team in the SEC that's under talented, it's definitely Kentucky, which historically is a basketball school. I doubt Kentucky had any 4 or 5 star recruits on either side of the ball - so maybe Levis has some good potential in the NFL with a talented supporting cast. Levis was only a 3-star recruit but was recruited as a pro-style QB (transfer from Penn St). Playing in the semi-pro SEC, he was seeing basically top notch defensive talent week in & week out. He certainly has the size, arm strength, smarts & toughness (they say he eats unpeeled bananas before games. Lol).

I don't know if Young is planning on attending the combine (there they measure the guys in their bare feet - so you'll get an accurate measurement on their height). Most of the top group of QBs show up every year unless they had an injury to their throwing arm/shoulder that they don't want to re-aggravate or show a drop in throwing performance. But they can pick or choose what aspects of the combine they want to participate in. For example, none of the QBs do the bench press anymore since it's pointless in the performance of their job & the the risk of injury is too high. Most will run the 40 but that really does mean much if you're a pro-style QB vs a dual-threat who wants to show off his speed (Mahomes only ran 4.8 & does anyone question his quickness & agility? Lol).

You're are absolutely right that so many QBs get overdrafted. Just look at some of busts with just the top 3 OA drafted QBs the last several years: Winston (#1), Mayfield (#1), Wentz (#2), Trubisky (#2), Mariota (#2), Darnold (#3)...with Murray (#1) on the bust watch list (time is running out on him. Lol).

Great post on your scouting review (btw, do you get a chance to watch any college games?).
 
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I wish I could watch more college on a weekly basis.

Before my post on all the QBs, I mostly watched a whole lot of clips on each guy. Some full games, some highlights. I watched too much. Bad weather here helped, lol! Some fans on YouTube have end zone analysis they do of their own. A lot of those I can watch with the sound off. One guy had footage of Hooker and was talking about all the "pro" plays and throws, and how fast he was when he ran, which is I'm sorry to say idiotic. The guy played in the near opposite of a pro set. Translating footage from him to the NFL is hard. I couldn't find a single snap he took under center, not one. But he has a nice arm and quick delivery.

The thing with ALL the QBs in the draft is they need work. Some need more than others, but all need work. I think what I pointed out on Levis is maybe the best example. At times he looks great. But with a keen eye, you see subtle issues. Sometimes he gets the ball out quick, sometimes he hesitates. He can visually focus on guys a little too long. He sometimes double taps the ball. Sometimes his feet aren't set. It's a lot of little things. If one wants to go to YouTube, try watching a few plays at .75 speed, with the sound off.

With Stroud, the biggest issue to me is that a team is going to have to get him to go through progressions quickly, and let the ball go. The luxury of a 5 step drop, scanning the field for a second or two, that he so often had, will be gone in the NFL. Yes, it will be gone for Young, and the others. But Young has a lot better footwork, he had a lot of plays where he moved around, and threw well under pressure. But as I said, Young is tiny. Lots of QBs in the NFL built like Stroud. None built like Young.

You and I have posted almost the same. All the big name QBs drafted so high, who don't pan out. It's not just #1 overall. Mitch Trubisky drafted #2 overall. How did he work out? Same with Carson Wentz. Same with Zach Wilson. Just look at the entire top 10 in every year over the last 20 years. Far more average guys, or busts, than stars. And there have been a LOT of guys taken out of the top 10 (Mahomes went at 10!) or in lower rounds even that have turned into good starters.

Be nice to Kellen please! He's a great football mind stuck in a body like mine. :p To top it off, he is one of the nicest athletes you will ever meet.
But my comparison in size isn't far off. Doug Flutie was even shorter. But Doug seemed to have more muscle on him, even though I doubt he was 200lbs either.
Bryce Young is probably the most 'athletic' QB who will get thrown to the wolves this year. His size could be a concern simply because he will go to a team that won't be able to help him out too much.
Precisely. This happens almost every single year.

Yes, like Russ, or Kyler. But with less muscle. Not just muscle, a smaller frame, period. It's not like he can just do an off season of weight training, and consume tons of protein mix and creatine, and put on a lot of muscle. His body isn't built like that. And an ideal QB in the NFL these days is at least 6'3" I think. A few guys are shorter, but they are special. Even if somehow a chiropractor gets ahold of Young an hour before the combine and stretches him on a rack to 6', that's still short.

Yeah, I tried different google searches on smaller QBs getting hurt. No tangible data anyone can work with.
In college BY was just so much more athletic/faster than those pursuing him that he could escape/gain yards. In the NFL he won't have that luxury. He will get knocked down for a loss (way) more than a guy like Allen.
Way more? That's it?! Allen is almost as big as Gronk! Not quite, but close! Allen is also so solid, defenders have stated they don't like hitting him, out of hurting themselves.
IMO, the most successful QB to come out of the draft is not going to be one of the guys that we all expect. You mentioned Hall and O'Connell...
Quite possibly. The thing I liked about Hall is he has a fairly strong arm, and he just lets go of the ball. But Hall is not that big, maybe 6'1", looked just okay at the Senior Bowl. Would need a lot of work I think. He's looked good at pulling the trigger. There are plenty of guys in the NFL who may not be MVPs, but have had solid careers playing like this. One to 3 step throws. Drop back, look at 2 guys at most, and zip the ball into a window at the guy closest to being open. Tom Brady threw hundreds of these passes. But other guys have excelled at this: Fitz, Jimmy G, Tannehill. Jared Goff is really good at these kinds of throws, but he also has plenty of arm strength to throw deep. Heck, Jarett Stidham throws like this a lot, and looked pretty good throwing mostly quick passes against SF, and for a half against KC. One could perhaps view this as part of the Weeb Eubanks/Bill Walsh, West Coast Offense style.

The opposite of a QB like this would be Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, maybe Aaron Rodgers, Daryl Lamonica(!). Guys who like to drop back, even roll out, audible a lot, then see who they can find after a few seconds, and take that chance throw. That can yield big gains, but also more interceptions, incompletions, tipped balls, etc. Rodgers can also make quick throws, obviously. All of these guys can do both. But I hope what I'm saying makes sense.

EDIT: If Stroud wasn't so hyped (some rightly so), he could be the unexpected guy from the 3rd round.
Yes. He looks like a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, who would pan out in the right system, especially on a team with a good OL. If not, he's the next EJ Manuel. Or if thrown to the wolves, I fear he's the next Cardale Jones.
 
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I'd say Hurts in the best current example of a second rounder who panned out really well. I would have taken him ahead of everyone in 2020 (I'm pretty sure that I typed it here). It was a toss up with he and Burrow for me, and Herbert really tight there as well. Tua was (just) behind those three for me. I think that I still feel that way.

EDIT: Love was 2020 as well. I didn't love him coming out of college and I didn't think that he should have gone in the first three rounds let alone the first round.
 
This could be an interesting QB shuffle year!

Two big pieces are ERodg, and Jackson. If they both stay, it makes it slightly less crazy, but barely. BAL? GB?

LAR & SF? because we don't know how injuries will pan out for Stafford and Purdy (his surgery delays are not good for an August return). Does LA keep Mayfield just in case (he's another interesting piece of the shuffle)?

LV? ATL? CAR? NO? TB? WA? TEN? IND? HOU? That's a lot of ?
 
Here are some of my guesses on that:

Lamar will get non-exclusive franchise tagged by Baltimore. That will "bait" other teams to give up 2 first round draft picks in exchange for Lamar, plus that team would be paying his 2023 fully guaranteed contract, which would likely reach $40m. The only team I see taking that "bait" is the Jets. I think Lamar could thrive in the NY market. He likely would have to run less on that team than in Baltimore, helping his health. No one else will try to grab him in such a deal.

Rodgers to me will slowly seem like the "old maid" no one wants, at least among GMs. I don't think his career is done and he's dropping off a cliff. I just don't think he's worth $50m guaranteed, or a few draft picks. I also think Rodgers will be sitting around, waiting to play in Green Bay, until early August. by then, if the Jets can't get Derek Carr, or Lamar, they'll be able to negotiate with GB to get Aaron, without giving up the farm. I agree with the SI writer who covers the Raiders that says Dave Ziegler doesn't want to wait for Rodgers for any reason, and he and JMD want a "team" player. Still, 5% chance he goes to the Raiders, because Mark Davis decides he wants him. I really do think Green Bay wants to move on, and see what Love can do. It just feels like time, for so many reasons. Rodgers antics, Rodgers play dropping off some, the new receiver corps. Matt LeFleur. Also, getting rid of Rodgers sets the Packers up to be flush with cash in 2024 and beyond.

I think Carr is going to go to New Orleans. 70% sure of it. It just fits. He'll be back with Dennis Allen, that team has a varied offense, and a better defense than he ever had for the Raiders. The Saints are also a far more stable org than the Raiders have been since Al Davis got really old. Tom Benson is a hands-off owner, and GM Mickey Loomis has been with the team for aeons. Pete Carmichael has been their OC for many years and is zero drama. Carr also plays better in warm weather. Carr would instantly be the best QB in that entire division. They are in a tough cap situation, but that slowly eases up every year from here on out. The Jets could make a better offer, and seemed to really like him a lot.

I think Jimmy Garappolo is going to either the Buccaneers, or maybe in some sort of odd swap could end up in New England, I think there's a chance he'll end up in Vegas as well.

I fully expect Trey Lance to start week 1 for SF. I think Brock Purdy will be almost ready by pre-season, but SF is going to use his off-season surgery to sit him and see what Lance really has. The interview I saw with Lance at season's end he seemed a lot more calm, grounded, than he did when drafted. I think that will really help him. We'll see. Hey, let's wind back the clock, shall we? It's 1992, Joe Montana has been hurt all year. Steve Young has played well, not the passer Joe was, not the experience, but more mobile. Final game of the year Montana is 100% healthy, finally plays while the Niners "rest" young, and showing no rust, Joe is lights out. But in the NFC championship game, George Siefert and Joe have become oil and water, and George starts Young. Joe never once sees the ball in a home loss to the Cowboys where Young threw a pick in the 4Q. The next year Joe went to KC where he took them to the AFC championship, many fans never forgot Joe's last day in a 49er uniform, stuck on the sidelines. So, is Trey Lance the new Steve Young, and Brock Purdy the new Joe Montana? :sweatsmile:

Mayfield becomes a UFA in about a week and a half. Then, we'll see what happens. Could be interesting. He's an enigma. A mess in Cleveland (like so many before him), didn't have it in Carolina, but his attitude, gratitude, seems to be changing, and the talent is there. He could play quite well, in the right system. If the Rams have any indication Stafford will retire, or simply cannot start the season, or it looks like an injury risk, it benefits them to sign Baker, or at least transition tag him. A non-exculsive franchise tag doesn't make sense due to the cost. This is the tag the Seahawks mistakingly put on Steve Hutchinson years ago, and Minnesota responded with a complicated "poison pill" contract offer.

Here's a link to what franchise, exclusive, transition, etc. tags really mean.

Other teams:

I'm thinking Vegas signs Jarett Stidham to begin with at the start of FA, as he'll come at a low cost. Then I see them trying to figure out if Jimmy G, a trade for Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett (my choice) makes sense, and perhaps an early/mid round draft if a QB falls that they like. Recall, he didn't win many games, but Brissett's numbers were better than Watson last year, and teammates really respected the guy. Could be a very good bridge until they find their guy in the future.

Pretty sure Atlanta is going to see what Desmond Riddler has. Tennessee has Tannehill for 1 more year on his deal and should be healed by camp (this guy is one tough SOB. Played on a bad high ankle sprain, until reinjured a few more times and needed surgery!). Cutting him would be a harsh amount of dead money. They also have Joshua Dobbs, who played okay the last two games of the season. He's sort of where Jarett Stidham is. He might be good. He played good sometimes. But does that make him an NFL starting QB? Really hard to tell. Titans have no OC. Washington will see what Sam Howell has (and could draft a QB in the early rounds, similar to the Raiders. I can see that for sure, because it gives Eric Bienemy options, without forcing his hand with a high 1st round QB).

Houston, Carolina and Indianapolis all draft in the 1st round high, and will all (over) draft for a QB I think. That means 3 QBs could go in the first 4 picks. I know, wow.

I can see Chicago trading out of the first pick. I do not see them taking Young or Stroud and dumping Fields.

Of course QB is only one position. Many teams need help in many other positions. Rams OL, Raiders almost entire defense. Bills DL, Eagles are going to lose players. Arizona needs serious help on OL, elsewhere. You guys know about Seattle's needs, and they aren't at QB.
 
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Here are some of my guesses on that:

Lamar will get non-exclusive franchise tagged by Baltimore. That will "bait" other teams to give up 2 first round draft picks in exchange for Lamar, plus that team would be paying his 2023 fully guaranteed contract, which would likely reach $40m. The only team I see taking that "bait" is the Jets. I think Lamar could thrive in the NY market. He likely would have to run less on that team than in Baltimore, helping his health. No one else will try to grab him in such a deal.

Rodgers to me will slowly seem like the "old maid" no one wants, at least among GMs. I don't think his career is done and he's dropping off a cliff. I just don't think he's worth $50m guaranteed, or a few draft picks. I also think Rodgers will be sitting around, waiting to play in Green Bay, until early August. by then, if the Jets can't get Derek Carr, or Lamar, they'll be able to negotiate with GB to get Aaron, without giving up the farm. I agree with the SI writer who covers the Raiders that says Dave Ziegler doesn't want to wait for Rodgers for any reason, and he and JMD want a "team" player. Still, 5% chance he goes to the Raiders, because Mark Davis decides he wants him. I really do think Green Bay wants to move on, and see what Love can do. It just feels like time, for so many reasons. Rodgers antics, Rodgers play dropping off some, the new receiver corps. Matt LeFleur. Also, getting rid of Rodgers sets the Packers up to be flush with cash in 2024 and beyond.

I think Carr is going to go to New Orleans. 70% sure of it. It just fits. He'll be back with Dennis Allen, that team has a varied offense, and a better defense than he ever had for the Raiders. The Saints are also a far more stable org than the Raiders have been since Al Davis got really old. Tom Benson is a hands-off owner, and GM Mickey Loomis has been with the team for aeons. Pete Carmichael has been their OC for many years and is zero drama. Carr also plays better in warm weather. Carr would instantly be the best QB in that entire division. They are in a tough cap situation, but that slowly eases up every year from here on out. The Jets could make a better offer, and seemed to really like him a lot.

I think Jimmy Garappolo is going to either the Buccaneers, or maybe in some sort of odd swap could end up in New England, I think there's a chance he'll end up in Vegas as well.

I fully expect Trey Lance to start week 1 for SF. I think Brock Purdy will be almost ready by pre-season, but SF is going to use his off-season surgery to sit him and see what Lance really has. The interview I saw with Lance at season's end he seemed a lot more calm, grounded, than he did when drafted. I think that will really help him. We'll see. Hey, let's wind back the clock, shall we? It's 1992, Joe Montana has been hurt all year. Steve Young has played well, not the passer Joe was, not the experience, but more mobile. Final game of the year Montana is 100% healthy, finally plays while the Niners "rest" young, and showing no rust, Joe is lights out. But in the NFC championship game, George Siefert and Joe have become oil and water, and George starts Young. Joe never once sees the ball in a home loss to the Cowboys where Young threw a pick in the 4Q. The next year Joe went to KC where he took them to the AFC championship, many fans never forgot Joe's last day in a 49er uniform, stuck on the sidelines. So, is Trey Lance the new Steve Young, and Brock Purdy the new Joe Montana? :sweatsmile:

Mayfield becomes a UFA in about a week and a half. Then, we'll see what happens. Could be interesting. He's an enigma. A mess in Cleveland (like so many before him), didn't have it in Carolina, but his attitude, gratitude, seems to be changing, and the talent is there. He could play quite well, in the right system. If the Rams have any indication Stafford will retire, or simply cannot start the season, or it looks like an injury risk, it benefits them to sign Baker, or at least transition tag him. A non-exculsive franchise tag doesn't make sense due to the cost. This is the tag the Seahawks mistakingly put on Steve Hutchinson years ago, and Minnesota responded with a complicated "poison pill" contract offer.

Here's a link to what franchise, exclusive, transition, etc. tags really mean.

Other teams:

I'm thinking Vegas signs Jarett Stidham to begin with at the start of FA, as he'll come at a low cost. Then I see them trying to figure out if Jimmy G, a trade for Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett (my choice) makes sense, and perhaps an early/mid round draft if a QB falls that they like. Recall, he didn't win many games, but Brissett's numbers were better than Watson last year, and teammates really respected the guy. Could be a very good bridge until they find their guy in the future.

Pretty sure Atlanta is going to see what Desmond Riddler has. Tennessee has Tannehill for 1 more year on his deal and should be healed by camp (this guy is one tough SOB. Played on a bad high ankle sprain, until reinjured a few more times and needed surgery!). Cutting him would be a harsh amount of dead money. They also have Joshua Dobbs, who played okay the last two games of the season. He's sort of where Jarett Stidham is. He might be good. He played good sometimes. But does that make him an NFL starting QB? Really hard to tell. Titans have no OC. Washington will see what Sam Howell has (and could draft a QB in the early rounds, similar to the Raiders. I can see that for sure, because it gives Eric Bienemy options, without forcing his hand with a high 1st round QB).

Houston, Carolina and Indianapolis all draft in the 1st round high, and will all (over) draft for a QB I think. That means 3 QBs could go in the first 4 picks. I know, wow.

I can see Chicago trading out of the first pick. I do not see them taking Young or Stroud and dumping Fields.

Of course QB is only one position. Many teams need help in many other positions. Rams OL, Raiders almost entire defense. Bills DL, Eagles are going to lose players. Arizona needs serious help on OL, elsewhere. You guys know about Seattle's needs, and they aren't at QB.
Jimmy will probably ride the coat tails of Rodgers and Carr. Teams that want Rodgers and Carr but miss out still might be interested in Jimmy. Reports that Carr wants 35, Rodgers is 50 odd, Jimmy won't be over 30 I don't think maybe less. Amazing how rapidly QB salaries have gone up. Five years ago 28 mill was near the top, now its already gone over 50 or 55 per season. Watson, Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers are making huge money. Lamar will get about 45 per season some are estimating maybe more.
 
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Yes. It's crazy money. Especially when you're giving like 1/15th of your entire salary to one guy. May even be more than that with Rodgers. I remember hearing how Josh Allen's contract was relatively "team friendly", and at $28m a year, I thought, yeah, right. But in retrospect, it sort of is! He won't make over $40m until 2028. Poor guy. :rolleyes:

And to think Robert Griffin III made about $34m his entire career, just a few years ago. Andrew Luck, just over $40m. Both guys were hurt early, and often, careers ruined by injury, but they both were around the league a few years.

Are you ready for this? Joe Montana made $25m, his entire career.

I wonder if/when the NFL will force Daniel Snyder to sell the team. All it takes is a vote, and Jim Irsay seemed to imply the votes were there. That, and the league, Goodell, other owners need to be be well prepared to both defend, and attack Snyder if he goes nuclear with his alleged J Edgar Hoover book of dirt.
 
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Yes. It's crazy money. Especially when you're giving like 1/15th of your entire salary to one guy. May even be more than that with Rodgers. I remember hearing how Josh Allen's contract was relatively "team friendly", and at $28m a year, I thought, yeah, right. But in retrospect, it sort of is! He won't make over $40m until 2028. Poor guy. :rolleyes:

And to think Robert Griffin III made about $34m his entire career, just a few years ago. Andrew Luck, just over $40m. Both guys were hurt early, and often, careers ruined by injury, but they both were around the league a few years.

Are you ready for this? Joe Montana made $25m, his entire career.

I wonder if/when the NFL will force Daniel Snyder to sell the team. All it takes is a vote, and Jim Irsay seemed to imply the votes were there. That, and the league, Goodell, other owners need to be be well prepared to both defend, and attack Snyder if he goes nuclear with his alleged J Edgar Hoover book of dirt.
Yes it seems that the NBA act much faster when they want an owner out. No more news about the Chargers possibly being sold.

Can see why the Vikings are happy to keep going with Cousins on a salary of about 36. but his next contract due in 2024 could be interesting if he has a good season. Even Geno at Seattle is expecting a to go for about 30 or so. Burrow and Henry should make big money when they come off their rookie contracts same with Hurts.
 
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Yes. He looks like a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, who would pan out in the right system, especially on a team with a good OL. If not, he's the next EJ Manuel. Or if thrown to the wolves, I fear he's the next Cardale Jones.
C'mon man...Stroud doesn't look a 2nd or 3rd rounder- that's absurd. Have you really looked at film on him especially in the big game against Georgia in the playoff? In this highlight video he's showing very good footwork when flushed out of the pocket. He also had some good runs when no one was open & the pocket collapsed. Watch at about the 3:40 mark & look at that spin move he does to avoid a sack taking off on 30+ yd gallop (analogous to Mahomes). I'm seeing good footwork, agility & quickness. He's definitely a playmaker & need I remind you this is against thee #1 defense in the nation.

View: https://youtu.be/rQbQ8eKKpjM


So, let's get serious here: Stroud is projected as the #2 QB drafted behind Young. Some mock drafts have the Texans taking Young and the Colts taking Stroud. One mock had the Colts working out a deal with Chicago & trading up to the #1 OA & taking Young with the Texans taking Stroud. Unless Stroud & Young completely blow it at the combine, this will be your top 2 QBs in this year's draft.

FWIW, Cardale Jones is not good example if you're trying to undermine Stroud. Lol. Jones was a 4th round pick & a big stiff (260 lbs) who couldn't throw the ball anywhere near as well as Stroud. His stats at OSU were not impressive at all & I'm wondering why they didn't make a position change with him (WR or TE?). E.J. Manual was, in fact, a high 1st round pick & had a stellar career at Florida St. But he was an injury bust - playing in only 30 games in 5 seasons between the Bills & Raiders before he called it quits. I think we need to distinguish between an injury bust & a performance bust. The QBs that are injury busts flat out just have plain bad luck (e.g. RG III). It's the performance bust 1st & 2nd rounders you have to really wonder about. Lol.

And if there's hype on these QBs this year - we haven't seen anything yet with all-world Arch Manning playing at Texas this season (yes...Texas of all schools). In a few years, he'll declare for the draft & can you imagine the pre-draft hype on this Manning.

 
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NICE! A lot of great scouting there Alpe!

Be nice to Kellen please! He's a great football mind stuck in a body like mine. :p To top it off, he is one of the nicest athletes you will ever meet. Of course that doesn't make a great NFL QB.

Bryce Young is probably the most 'athletic' QB who will get thrown to the wolves this year. His size could be a concern simply because he will go to a team that won't be able to help him out too much. Durability will likely be an issue. I would like to know his real HT/WT because I've seen as tall as 6'1"/210 (BS!), ESPN has him listed at 6'/195 (that's a stretch too IMO). Compare that to a guy who is just as athletic, Lamar Jackson at 3+" taller and 30 pounds heavier. He and RW might be the same height, but Russ is at least 15 pounds heavier. By all accounts BY is a guy who will put in the work, but he's not going to put on 15+ lbs IMO, and at 21 (almost 22 I think) he likely won't get taller. He is Doug Flutie size.

DF is the segue into the discussion of: "Do smaller QBs have more injuries?". Its almost impossible to do any math on that because there just aren't enough of them, plus it depends on their style of play and/or their team (the O line they play behind, the WR/RB...).

In college BY was just so much more athletic/faster than those pursuing him that he could escape/gain yards. In the NFL he won't have that luxury. He will get knocked down for a loss (way) more than a guy like Allen.

IMO, the most successful QB to come out of the draft is not going to be one of the guys that we all expect. You mentioned Hall and O'Connell...

EDIT: If Stroud wasn't so hyped (some rightly so), he could be the unexpected guy from the 3rd round.
I do think smaller QBs that are coached and played excessively to their scrambling ability will get hurt. RGIII, Wilson several years ago, Murray. Larger guys, too but most don't go that route of more reckless running. Allen is so big you can see some defenders diving for his feet to take him down and avoid the punishment.
 
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Here are some of my guesses on that:

Lamar will get non-exclusive franchise tagged by Baltimore. That will "bait" other teams to give up 2 first round draft picks in exchange for Lamar, plus that team would be paying his 2023 fully guaranteed contract, which would likely reach $40m. The only team I see taking that "bait" is the Jets. I think Lamar could thrive in the NY market. He likely would have to run less on that team than in Baltimore, helping his health. No one else will try to grab him in such a deal.

Rodgers to me will slowly seem like the "old maid" no one wants, at least among GMs. I don't think his career is done and he's dropping off a cliff. I just don't think he's worth $50m guaranteed, or a few draft picks. I also think Rodgers will be sitting around, waiting to play in Green Bay, until early August. by then, if the Jets can't get Derek Carr, or Lamar, they'll be able to negotiate with GB to get Aaron, without giving up the farm. I agree with the SI writer who covers the Raiders that says Dave Ziegler doesn't want to wait for Rodgers for any reason, and he and JMD want a "team" player. Still, 5% chance he goes to the Raiders, because Mark Davis decides he wants him. I really do think Green Bay wants to move on, and see what Love can do. It just feels like time, for so many reasons. Rodgers antics, Rodgers play dropping off some, the new receiver corps. Matt LeFleur. Also, getting rid of Rodgers sets the Packers up to be flush with cash in 2024 and beyond.

I think Carr is going to go to New Orleans. 70% sure of it. It just fits. He'll be back with Dennis Allen, that team has a varied offense, and a better defense than he ever had for the Raiders. The Saints are also a far more stable org than the Raiders have been since Al Davis got really old. Tom Benson is a hands-off owner, and GM Mickey Loomis has been with the team for aeons. Pete Carmichael has been their OC for many years and is zero drama. Carr also plays better in warm weather. Carr would instantly be the best QB in that entire division. They are in a tough cap situation, but that slowly eases up every year from here on out. The Jets could make a better offer, and seemed to really like him a lot.

I think Jimmy Garappolo is going to either the Buccaneers, or maybe in some sort of odd swap could end up in New England, I think there's a chance he'll end up in Vegas as well.

I fully expect Trey Lance to start week 1 for SF. I think Brock Purdy will be almost ready by pre-season, but SF is going to use his off-season surgery to sit him and see what Lance really has. The interview I saw with Lance at season's end he seemed a lot more calm, grounded, than he did when drafted. I think that will really help him. We'll see. Hey, let's wind back the clock, shall we? It's 1992, Joe Montana has been hurt all year. Steve Young has played well, not the passer Joe was, not the experience, but more mobile. Final game of the year Montana is 100% healthy, finally plays while the Niners "rest" young, and showing no rust, Joe is lights out. But in the NFC championship game, George Siefert and Joe have become oil and water, and George starts Young. Joe never once sees the ball in a home loss to the Cowboys where Young threw a pick in the 4Q. The next year Joe went to KC where he took them to the AFC championship, many fans never forgot Joe's last day in a 49er uniform, stuck on the sidelines. So, is Trey Lance the new Steve Young, and Brock Purdy the new Joe Montana? :sweatsmile:

Mayfield becomes a UFA in about a week and a half. Then, we'll see what happens. Could be interesting. He's an enigma. A mess in Cleveland (like so many before him), didn't have it in Carolina, but his attitude, gratitude, seems to be changing, and the talent is there. He could play quite well, in the right system. If the Rams have any indication Stafford will retire, or simply cannot start the season, or it looks like an injury risk, it benefits them to sign Baker, or at least transition tag him. A non-exculsive franchise tag doesn't make sense due to the cost. This is the tag the Seahawks mistakingly put on Steve Hutchinson years ago, and Minnesota responded with a complicated "poison pill" contract offer.

Here's a link to what franchise, exclusive, transition, etc. tags really mean.

Other teams:

I'm thinking Vegas signs Jarett Stidham to begin with at the start of FA, as he'll come at a low cost. Then I see them trying to figure out if Jimmy G, a trade for Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett (my choice) makes sense, and perhaps an early/mid round draft if a QB falls that they like. Recall, he didn't win many games, but Brissett's numbers were better than Watson last year, and teammates really respected the guy. Could be a very good bridge until they find their guy in the future.

Pretty sure Atlanta is going to see what Desmond Riddler has. Tennessee has Tannehill for 1 more year on his deal and should be healed by camp (this guy is one tough SOB. Played on a bad high ankle sprain, until reinjured a few more times and needed surgery!). Cutting him would be a harsh amount of dead money. They also have Joshua Dobbs, who played okay the last two games of the season. He's sort of where Jarett Stidham is. He might be good. He played good sometimes. But does that make him an NFL starting QB? Really hard to tell. Titans have no OC. Washington will see what Sam Howell has (and could draft a QB in the early rounds, similar to the Raiders. I can see that for sure, because it gives Eric Bienemy options, without forcing his hand with a high 1st round QB).

Houston, Carolina and Indianapolis all draft in the 1st round high, and will all (over) draft for a QB I think. That means 3 QBs could go in the first 4 picks. I know, wow.

I can see Chicago trading out of the first pick. I do not see them taking Young or Stroud and dumping Fields.

Of course QB is only one position. Many teams need help in many other positions. Rams OL, Raiders almost entire defense. Bills DL, Eagles are going to lose players. Arizona needs serious help on OL, elsewhere. You guys know about Seattle's needs, and they aren't at QB.
Unless something is going on that we aren't aware of, it's in both BAL and LJ's best interests to figure it out.

If I was an owner and/or GM ERodg would not be on my radar, but we know that money doesn't buy brains (or class, or...).

LA should try to keep BM IMO. If MS is ready in Aug though, is BM willing to be QB2? I still think that we haven't seen the best of him.

I like DC to NOLA. Will LV try to grab JW?

SEA needs O line and an impact player at DE or LB (even if/when Adams returns). Another huge plug in the D line would also be nice.

Is Tannehill on track for a summer return? I thought that I read that he was having issues in rehab. Plus TEN is (way) over the cap. Getting a less expensive QB1 (who isn't injured), or developing Dobbs would be a way to save money (obviously at what expense though). Nothing new on a Google search about RT's rehab...?

EDIT: They're 'only' $20 MIL over the cap so in NFL money that's not 'way over' I guess.

Josh McDaniel is JMcD, you keep confusing me. ;)
 
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I do think smaller QBs that are coached and played excessively to their scrambling ability will get hurt. RGIII, Wilson several years ago, Murray. Larger guys, too but most don't go that route of more reckless running. Allen is so big you can see some defenders diving for his feet to take him down and avoid the punishment.
Defenders diving at his feet/legs could end up leading to an injury.
 
Unless something is going on that we aren't aware of, it's in both BAL and LJ's best interests to figure it out.

If I was an owner and/or GM ERodg would not be on my radar, but we know that money doesn't buy brains (or class, or...).

LA should try to keep BM IMO. If MS is ready in Aug though, is BM willing to be QB2? I still think that we haven't seen the best of him.

I like DC to NOLA. Will LV try to grab JW?

SEA needs O line and an impact player at DE or LB (even if/when Adams returns). Another huge plug in the D line would also be nice.

Is Tannehill on track for a summer return? I thought that I read that he was having issues in rehab. Plus TEN is (way) over the cap. Getting a less expensive QB1 (who isn't injured), or developing Dobbs would be a way to save money (obviously at what expense though). Nothing new on a Google search about RT's rehab...?

EDIT: They're 'only' $20 MIL over the cap so in NFL money that's not 'way over' I guess.

Josh McDaniel is JMcD, you keep confusing me. ;)
The Titans have already started offloading veterans. Think Tannehill will be gone soon. They are in rebuild mode. Already some talk about Henry being moved maybe just a rumour. If he goes the entire offense changes.
 
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