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National Football League

Page 643 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
As the market gets stonger for QBs, CB, WR and even TE the RB salary is looking more and more threatened which is a shame for the really good ones. Jacobs should be paid after last season, same with Ekeler, CMC is making top RB money already but nothing like a good WR can make. Taylor has had injury issues since his killer season the year before. Henry has been getting injured more often. Also coaching with RBs has evolved as well. Shanahan and Reid like to tweak the formula and most other coaches are watching what they are doing. It seems t that the elite RB will get one premium contract and then have to take their chances with free agency or settle for the market rate at the lower end of the elite offensive players. The lack of RBs being taken in the first round of the draft says it all. Last draft was three or so which is more than usual. But there was plenty of TE's and O line in the first round.
 
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Some thoughts as we enter camp. Teams and players I think will over, and under perform, or surprise. Not commenting on all teams, yet.

AFC
  • My original thought was the Jets could start hot, and fizzle out late, as I think they lack a complete offense, and Rodgers, despite being determined, is aging. But their schedule is tough, with a lot of tough games up front. Buffalo, Dallas, KC, Philly...
  • The Patriots defense will be very impressive in many games. A mixed schedule helps.
  • I'm still somewhat confident the Steelers will make the playoffs, and push the Bengals.
  • Also confident the Browns will finish dead last, Watson will have an average year, and it's possible Kevin Stefanski will take the blame and be fired. This will also insure the Browns finish in the cellar for the next several years, with that albatross contract they gave Watson. Plus the crazy draft picks they gave up.
  • I expect Lamar Jackson to have an average year, and be injured again.
  • Though I like the Jags, I don't see them being a serious contender. Maybe 11-6 at best.
  • Very curious how Houston looks coming off a rebuild year, with CJ, and developing players.
  • More curious how Indy does setting Richardson loose. They currently list Gardner Minshew as their starter. Yeah, right. Richardson in the pre-season will be real fun to watch.
  • At some point I see Tennessee starting Levis, though it may be halfway through the season. We'll get a very good look at him in the preseason.
  • The Chiefs obviously still a serious contender, and a repeat is possible. But the target on their back may be too big to overcome.
  • I have little faith Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson, much. The Broncos look like a team that spent big money...to end up maybe 7-10, and fight it out with the Raiders for the cellar.
  • Even if Jimm G stays healthy, the Raiders at best win about 9 games. If not? 5?
NFC

  • Sticking with my prediction on Dallas winning the division, and losing in the playoffs again.
  • I'm one of the few people who think the Eagles will struggle to make the playoffs, and may miss out.
  • Commanders will finish about 5-12, and fire Ron Rivera after the season, and mostly clean house entirely.
  • While I think Detroit could win their division. I'm not expecting them to go 13-4 or so. There are still some holes there, especially on defense.
  • I think the Packers may impress some people at times, and win more games than many expect.
  • Vikings won't.
  • Way too much hype in Carolina, with Frank Reich expected to fix everything, and tiny Bryce Young a 50% chance of getting hurt - whom rumors said Reich didn't want, but the owner drafted anyway.
  • The Saints will do slightly better with Derek Carr as QB, but they will soon feel the same pain Raiders fans did. For how many great throws he can make, they can be erased by forced throws into picks, and bad decisions often in the red zone or crucial times.
  • Falcons "rebuild" is going to surprise some teams, especially late in the season with some wins. Schedule has lots of opportunities.
  • I think it's honestly an unknown how well SF will do with Purdy (and/or Lance) for the full season. They may have lost an edge on offense, but may have gained on defense. 49ers schedule is somehow easier than Seattle's.
  • I said earlier I thought Seattle may disappoint, I'm going to take that back. I think there are holes on both sides of the ball, moreso on D, but there seems to be a lot of cohesion there. If Njigba plays well early, their passing offense could be explosive. Jamal Adams remains a huge unknown. Their bye comes early after some tough games, and they also have several tough games late.
  • Arizona looks to go 2-15, and win the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
I also ran a scenario predicting every single game, and the results somewhat concur. I'll post it later perhaps.
 
The Jets are the big unknown in the AFC. Maybe GB is being underrated in the NFC but only if Love shows up. If he doesn't they could be trouble. 50/50 about Denver and the Browns. Expect Miami to do well if their QB stays healthy. Bills need to do more otherwise the Bengals and Chiefs will be fighting it out again. The Eagles could drop off a little losing some good defense plus coaches but the Cowboys and 49ers have to sort their QB issues to make the SB again. Dak has to do better than last season and Shanahan has to have a healthy, consistent QB for a change. Don't see the Rams improving much if at all and they are locked into two horribly expensive contracts with Donald and Stafford who are near retirement and past their best. Expect the Lions to do better but the Vikings have to improve on defense as do the Hawks. Expect the Hawks to make the playoffs all the same in an NFC which isn't full of great teams. Jags might keep improving and the Texans are a work in progress but made some nice signings including the new coach. Don't see much hope for the Colts or Cards. Expect the Patriots to finish in the middle of the pack. Raiders and Washington could go either way same with the Titans. Not expecting a lot from the Saints or Ravens. Wouldn't surprise me to see the same final four teams as last season with maybe the Cowboys taking the Eagles spot if Dak can stop the turnovers.
 
It's all going to be about the health of the QB in 2023.

I predict at least half of the starting QBs will miss significant time from injuries with many suffering season ending major injuries. We saw this trend last year with starters dropping like flies - and in most cases the back-ups were unable to perform well enough to carry the team (the one big exception last year was the impressive performance by Cooper Rush filling in several games for Dak).

Just yesterday - I believe Cinncinati's first practice - Burrow goes down with a calf injury which initially was thought to be an Achilles. And depending upon the severity, he may not even be ready for the season opener:

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/RccNdlP8H9g?feature=share


I think it's imperative that these coaches play the back-ups for the entire preseason & have them ready to go once the season starts. I think we're going to see plenty of back-ups see significant playing time this year.
 
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I have little faith Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson, much. The Broncos look like a team that spent big money...to end up maybe 7-10, and fight it out with the Raiders for the cellar.
If you're anything close in accurately predicting the Broncos finishing 7-10 (only 2 better than last year's disaster), Payton would be one of the biggest jokes on a comeback back coach in the history of the game - especially after he just publicly ripped Hackett stating "It might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL." Lol


I agree with you on Wilson. However, I think if he can stay healthy, and have the services of Javonte Williams (coming off the torn ACL), and find a way to get the ball to Jeudy - I think they can have a fairly productive offense. Furthermore, the defense is solid with one of the best secondaries in the business. And defense is Payton's speciality.

Barring injury to Wilson, I predict the team will finish at least above 500. Where they go from there, I have no idea.
 
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It's all going to be about the health of the QB in 2023.

I predict at least half of the starting QBs will miss significant time from injuries with many suffering season ending major injuries. We saw this trend last year with starters dropping like flies - and in most cases the back-ups were unable to perform well enough to carry the team (the one big exception last year was the impressive performance by Cooper Rush filling in several games for Dak).

Just yesterday - I believe Cinncinati's first practice - Burrow goes down with a calf injury which initially was thought to be an Achilles. And depending upon the severity, he may not even be ready for the season opener:

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/RccNdlP8H9g?feature=share


I think it's imperative that these coaches play the back-ups for the entire preseason & have them ready to go once the season starts. I think we're going to see plenty of back-ups see significant playing time this year.
49ers wouldn't have made the playoffs without Purdy. Josh Johnson or Lance were not going to get them there after Jimmy went down.
 
I think that's a valid concern about QB injuries, though at least half sounds like a high number. As a Raider fan, I'll honestly be really surprised if Jimmy Garappolo plays all 17 games. Since the Raiders didn't think Jarett Stidham would get a good offer on the market and let him walk, they are stuck with Brian Hoyer, and rookie Aiden O'Connell if/when JG gets hurt - a serious drop-off in talent.

I remember back a decade ago when Peyton Manning played like 1 series in the pre-season, and some people were questioning that decision. Even last year several teams rested QBs the entire preseason, and the numbers showed some rust. 3 won, 8 lost.

Winners: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson.
Losers: Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill.

Almost every stat was lopsided favoring QBs who played in the preseason, over those who didn't. Even those who only played a few series. As to the Raiders, they went 4-0 in the preseason (3 + HOF game), and both Jarett Stidham and Chase Garbers made the offense look like they were humming. When Derek Carr started week 1, he promptly threw three interceptions, forced numerous balls, digging the team into a deep hole with the entire offense looking out of whack. But for many players, maybe it was well worth the risk, to insure the QB is healthy.

I can see two things on the horizon though for this injury issue and long, difficult seasons:

• QBs starting to play like Tom Brady did the last few years, where when he comes close to getting hit, he either throws the ball into the dirt at the nearest receiver's feet, and/or he just crumples to the ground before being really hit taking a sack.

• Teams stacking good backups on their team, and planning on them playing more strategically, which doesn't just mean more garbage time. I can see teams resting starting QBs for entire half's of games, or entire games if they are injured at all, and the team is favored to win a game, or face a serious pass rush defense, and are willing to risk a loss just to survive. This is more likely now that the NFL can carry a 3rd "emergency" QB all the time.

This will increase even more once the league goes to 18 games - next year is my guess. It can end up a bit like the NBA, where teams and players see zero value in "ironman" players, and some stars only play 60 odd games in an 82 game season - which ticket paying fans despise.

Chip Kelly, who wasn't the best NFL coach, said he liked to have a back-up QB who was a starter. Basically two starting QBs on his team. People chalked it up to an NCAA coaching mindset, but he had a point.

Yes, I think slightly less of Sean Payton than all the experts out there. Good coach, not great coach. Drew Brees was a big reason they won all those games, won the SB. That and a good OL and defense for most of those years. Same with Brady in NE, Manning in Indy, the list goes on. Excellent coaches can often mask limited talent, work with what they have (Carroll with Wilson is a good example), but more often than not it's the player who does the work and makes the coach great, more than the other way around. Flip this around and a bad QB can easily get a coach fired. Again, Sean is good. But I don't see him being a miracle worker for Russell Wilson, who to me is about at the end of his shelf life. Maybe I'm wrong and they will dominate. We'll see.
 

Unbelievable!

Last year on Aug 2nd, Patrick sustains a season-ending ACL injury during practice. This year on July 31st, he sustains a season-ending Achilles injury!

Patrick is the Bronco's #2 receiver & he's done before the season even started for the second straight year!
 

Unbelievable!

Last year on Aug 2nd, Patrick sustains a season-ending ACL injury during practice. This year on July 31st, he sustains a season-ending Achilles injury!

Patrick is the Bronco's #2 receiver & he's done before the season even started for the second straight year!
Not the start Payton needed............
 
I think that's a valid concern about QB injuries, though at least half sounds like a high number. As a Raider fan, I'll honestly be really surprised if Jimmy Garappolo plays all 17 games. Since the Raiders didn't think Jarett Stidham would get a good offer on the market and let him walk, they are stuck with Brian Hoyer, and rookie Aiden O'Connell if/when JG gets hurt - a serious drop-off in talent.

I remember back a decade ago when Peyton Manning played like 1 series in the pre-season, and some people were questioning that decision. Even last year several teams rested QBs the entire preseason, and the numbers showed some rust. 3 won, 8 lost.

Winners: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson.
Losers: Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill.

Almost every stat was lopsided favoring QBs who played in the preseason, over those who didn't. Even those who only played a few series. As to the Raiders, they went 4-0 in the preseason (3 + HOF game), and both Jarett Stidham and Chase Garbers made the offense look like they were humming. When Derek Carr started week 1, he promptly threw three interceptions, forced numerous balls, digging the team into a deep hole with the entire offense looking out of whack. But for many players, maybe it was well worth the risk, to insure the QB is healthy.

I can see two things on the horizon though for this injury issue and long, difficult seasons:

• QBs starting to play like Tom Brady did the last few years, where when he comes close to getting hit, he either throws the ball into the dirt at the nearest receiver's feet, and/or he just crumples to the ground before being really hit taking a sack.

• Teams stacking good backups on their team, and planning on them playing more strategically, which doesn't just mean more garbage time. I can see teams resting starting QBs for entire half's of games, or entire games if they are injured at all, and the team is favored to win a game, or face a serious pass rush defense, and are willing to risk a loss just to survive. This is more likely now that the NFL can carry a 3rd "emergency" QB all the time.

This will increase even more once the league goes to 18 games - next year is my guess. It can end up a bit like the NBA, where teams and players see zero value in "ironman" players, and some stars only play 60 odd games in an 82 game season - which ticket paying fans despise.

Chip Kelly, who wasn't the best NFL coach, said he liked to have a back-up QB who was a starter. Basically two starting QBs on his team. People chalked it up to an NCAA coaching mindset, but he had a point.

Yes, I think slightly less of Sean Payton than all the experts out there. Good coach, not great coach. Drew Brees was a big reason they won all those games, won the SB. That and a good OL and defense for most of those years. Same with Brady in NE, Manning in Indy, the list goes on. Excellent coaches can often mask limited talent, work with what they have (Carroll with Wilson is a good example), but more often than not it's the player who does the work and makes the coach great, more than the other way around. Flip this around and a bad QB can easily get a coach fired. Again, Sean is good. But I don't see him being a miracle worker for Russell Wilson, who to me is about at the end of his shelf life. Maybe I'm wrong and they will dominate. We'll Oee.
Only seven QBs started every game last season. Cousins has been incredibly durable not missing one game in his entire career !
 
I think that's a valid concern about QB injuries, though at least half sounds like a high number. As a Raider fan, I'll honestly be really surprised if Jimmy Garappolo plays all 17 games. Since the Raiders didn't think Jarett Stidham would get a good offer on the market and let him walk, they are stuck with Brian Hoyer, and rookie Aiden O'Connell if/when JG gets hurt - a serious drop-off in talent.

I remember back a decade ago when Peyton Manning played like 1 series in the pre-season, and some people were questioning that decision. Even last year several teams rested QBs the entire preseason, and the numbers showed some rust. 3 won, 8 lost.

Winners: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson.
Losers: Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill.
Jimmy G gets antsy under pressure; which begets more pressure. He may be knocked out very early if he can't settle down.
 
I try not to predict too much in an unpredictable world but the season is still a few days away so...

This is how I think that teams will finish this year vs. last year (regular season):
KC- same
Phi- same
Buff- same
Min- same (to maybe less wins)
SF- less wins
CIN- more wins
DAL- less wins
BAL- more wins
LAC- more wins
NYG- same
DET- more wins
JAX- more wins
MIA- same
PIT- more wins
SEA- more wins
WASH- less wins
GB- less wins
NE- same
TB- less wins
ATL-same
CAR- less wins
CLE-less wins
NOLA- same
NYJ- same
TEN- same
LV- same
DEN- more wins
LAR- more wins
IND- less wins
AZ- same
HOU- more wins
CHI-more wins

The math probably doesn't work out with the number of more/same/less, but...