National Football League

[Amsterhammer]

CIN @ HOU - This is the game I find the least interesting and care the least about. Whoever wins will lose to the Pats. I've changed my mind and am going for the Bengals on the assumption that the Texan's recent collapse is for real.

MIN @ GB - Ponder played out of his skin last week. Few expect him to repeat that feat at Lambeau, where despite another monster rushing effort from my MVP, the Packers will take revenge and win.

IND @ BAL - This game has taken on a whole new dimension now that it might be Ray's last game ever. I expect the emotional buzz among his teammates to be huge. That factor, plus the crowd, plus it's THE Colts, plus one pick too many by Luck will, I hope, see the Ravens take this.

SEA @ WSH - This weekend's icing on the cake, the game most neutrals are most looking forward to. Going purely on stats and recent form, the Hawks are favorites. This should be an awesome confrontation between the two best rookie QBs. I hope that RG3 will be playing without that brace, it really restricts him. I absolutely think the Skins can win this, our lousy surface favors us, we're on a huge roll on seven in a row and I'm on board this ride till the end. Skins 24-17.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Off topic a bit, but Clowney will soon play in the NFL.

Clowney's hit during their bowl game against Mich.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Ray Lewis is my pick too. To me, true LBs are the MILBs. OLBs like LT are often more like DEs. Ray was heart & soul of the D, and as you say like a DC.

SEA are favorites vs Skins? I have not been paying attention.

That was some hit by Clowney the de-cleater. Thanks for that Chewwy.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

NFC Playoff-Rankings 2012:

Five teams are so close in competition level, that it´s impossible to make a "safe" list. So i mainly go by Y/PP-Differential with overvaluing the Offense.

1. SF
I pick them first b/c they are the most balanced team, and b/c i had them picked early. That´s not rational, but feels better than rolling a dice.
Also, the 49ers finished 2nd (to DEN) in Y/PP-Diff. at +1.6!
2. SEA
That´s a tough pick since they either lose in the WC-Round or go deep in the playoffs.
The Seahawks were 3rd in Y/PP-Diff. (+1.5) behind DEN & SF...
3. WAS
I would have ranked them one spot higher if i didn´t see what i saw last week: RG3 throwing a Cunningham like one-hopper (actually it was a "two-hopper") so wide off target that it reminded my of my own wildest wild pitches. So will RG3 melt under pressure or was it just b/c he isn´t 100%? The "lousy" 3rd down conversation rate might be a hint for the former. OTOH, it can also be due small sample size...
Anyway, the WAS pass offense is awesome (2nd in the NFL), RG3 is the 1st bionic QB ever and the running game will set up things some times. So even "B-Performances" by RG3 should be enough for exciting & thrilling WAS-PO-Games.
4. GB
The Packers finished 5th in the NFL in Y/PP-Diff.... The interesting thing is that GB´s Pass-O is ranked lower (12th) than their Pass-D (7th; last year 30th!!), "thanks" to their dramatic breakdown in offensive pass efficiency (8.3 Y/PP in 2011, but just above NFL-Avg. at 6.6 this season). Since i havn´t seen the Packers much this year, i only can guess that either opposing D´s figured out ARod, and/or that bad OL-play really killed their vertical passing game.
5.ATL
As Bill Belichick should be AFC-COY every year, Mike Smith should be NFC-COY every season. His teams regulary win way more games than their efficiency stats would "allow". It can´t be due luck only, since it happens all the time. The only other plausible reason must be brilliant game managment and gutsy play calling (actually it is)...
The Falcons are 22nd in Y/PP-D, 29th Run-O, and 29th Run-D! The bright spot is (for the first time) a good offensive pass efficiency (4th in the NFL). Will that be enough to beat the Redskins/Seahawks in their 1st playoff game? No. Their only chance is to "out-coach" the opponent. It´s possible since the Shanahan´s and Carroll are not necessarily known for being the brightest game managers. But still, i go with the better overall player talent and thus pick the Falcons a first game loser. Again.
6. MIN ... one and done, no matter if AP runs as much and as long so that GB drops, or he drops himself ... BTW, the Vikings field the 3rd worst NFL-Pass-O although they have the top ranked Run-O. That´s really hard to accomplish....

WC-Picks:
CIN 20, HOU 27
MIN 10, GB 38
IND 17, BAL 27
SEA 24, WAS 24 (first ever playoff game ending in a tie )

 

[Amsterhammer]

RG3 is the 1st bionic QB ever...............

SEA 24, WAS 24 (first ever playoff game ending in a tie )

Too funny! I love it!

That ball you referred to, the one-hopper, was probably the worst ball he threw all year. I was instantly worried, but he picked it up after that. I saw Steve Young tonight saying that he was amazed at the maturity and lack of nerves shown by both RG3 and Wilson this year, since neither of them had even one blow-out, bad game.

Can't let you get away with sitting on the fence for the Skins game. I presume that a tie is not possible in a playoff and that there would be a second OT if required.

I also frequent another board with a very large NFL forum. Yesterday, four stickies were put up for the four games. Just for fun, totally unscientific, but as some indication of the relative interest among fans for this weekend's games, here are the number of replies in each topic right now -

Cin@HOU - 28
Min@GB - 100
IND@BAL - 97
SEA@WASH - 324

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Too funny! I love it!

Well we could play the tie breaker in Seattle

 

[Oldman]

Well we could play the tie breaker in Seattle

I've got a seat when it happens.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

It looks like Andy Reid is a done deal to KC. This is intriguing on several levels. The Chiefs have a lot of talent on paper (but so did the Eagles). The Chiefs have a potent rushing attack with both Charles and Hillis. They also have the #1 pick in the draft. Picture this: They take Geno Smith in the draft. With him they run a modified run option pistol offense somewhat similar to Washington or Seattle, but Smith is much bigger than RG3 or Wilson. I honestly don't know if they have the OL or receivers to pull it off, but this could potentially be a powerful offensive scheme.

Problem is their pass rush and deep coverage was also awful.

The world awaits Chip Kelly's word...

 

[ChrisE]

More Houston news:

Word on the street is the team had a closed door meeting this week and aired everything out. That'll fix things. No word on if Schaub made it to the podium, or stopped about half way there similar to his 3 yards passes on 3rd and 8.

John McClain, who is a long time Houston Chronicle sports writer and is pretty well known nationally, is picking the Bengals. He is very close to the team, and always is writing with inside info. Apparently he is not buying into the closed door therapy.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Too funny! I love it!

Well we could play the tie breaker in Seattle

Both teams will advance to the next round. They´ll play a best of three w/ATL.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

More Houston news:.

There are times when such meetings help, in that the theory is that the players can now focus. But there is also a time when you are so desperate to fix things and win you can't focus either. I'm sticking with my pick of Cincy.

No possible way Indy beats Baltimore. Not with this likely Lewis last home game. No way.

Also think GB should beat Minn by double digits.

The Sea-Wash game is one were all looking forward to. Im sticking with Seattle, but this could go either way. Rush Limbaughs nightmare game. Two smart black QBs the media and fans like, and both are marrying white women.

 

[Amsterhammer]

There are times when such meetings help, in that the theory is that the players can now focus. But there is also a time when you are so desperate to fix things and win you can't focus either. I'm sticking with my pick of Cincy.

No possible way Indy beats Baltimore. Not with this likely Lewis last home game. No way.

Also think GB should beat Minn by double digits.

The Sea-Wash game is one were all looking forward to. Im sticking with Seattle, but this could go either way. Rush Limbaughs nightmare game. Two smart black QBs the media and fans like, and both are marrying white women.

LMAO!

I'm sticking with mine too, which are the same as yours except that I'm obviously going for the Skins - especially after yesterday's omen, when I received a belated Xmas present from my son in Indy, a long sleeved Skins shirt with a large '10' and 'Griffin III' on the back!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Skins could win. I still don't think we've really seen what RGIII can do, I honestly don't. And home field will help. I just think the Seahawks have more power on both sides of the ball. Seattle is probably the most physical team in the NFL right now. They remind me of the old Steel Curtain, or 2000 Ravens with how tough and aggressive they are.

The other close game could be Hou-Cin. It's now five mins in and 3-0, so Houston is holding it's own, for now. Lots of time left for them to revert to the team they've been the last month.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Rush Limbaughs nightmare game.

LOL here too.

LMAO!

I'm sticking with mine too, which are the same as yours except that I'm obviously going for the Skins - especially after yesterday's omen, when I received a belated Xmas present from my son in Indy, a long sleeved Skins shirt with a large '10' and 'Griffin III' on the back!

I am sticking with my pick too (tie game ).

I am 100% so far, won both games by picking it over the line here.
Had a monster success betting all kinds of bets in our bar, winning them all , with the funniest being to pick every play (pass or run) in the MIN-GB game (we had to kill time since we all knew it will not necessarily be a thriller). I won that game by picking 5 more plays corrrect than a friend of mine. It was a good comeback as i was behind at the half.

Can someone explain how coward Lewis is still HC in CIN? I knew the game was over at the half when he waved the white flag by kneeling down close to midfield with 4 seconds to go.
I am 100% sure, both Smith and Belichick would have let their teams try a hail mary. That´s the difference between winners and losers. The winning HC´s have guts the losers are timid.

Edit: Oh, and if Lewis thinks his QB can´t heave the ball 60 yards, then try your luck over the middle. There would have been enough space for some "razzle-dazzle" play (it´s the last play of the half, every team covers the sidelines in those situations). Be prepared for such situations. It´s a "do-or-die" game. Not the time for saving HC as.ses

Good night, and good luck: Rivera stays as HC in CAR.

 

[thirteen]

LMAO!

I'm sticking with mine too, which are the same as yours except that I'm obviously going for the Skins - especially after yesterday's omen, when I received a belated Xmas present from my son in Indy, a long sleeved Skins shirt with a large '10' and 'Griffin III' on the back!

F*CK!!!

with you in spirit

 

[Amsterhammer]

F*CK!!!

with you in spirit

Thanks, hon.

What a wretched way to lose after a start like that. Shanny should have pulled RG3 much sooner, it was evident to all that his throws were off and that he couldn't run after that first hit. Not for a moment saying that we would have won with Cousins, but it might have been less hopeless. Our defense let us down badly after the first quarter.

All credit to Wilson, who had a great game. The Hawks were deserving and worthy winners tonight, goddamnit. I hope Atlanta murder them.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Thanks, hon.

What a wretched way to lose after a start like that. Shanny should have pulled RG3 much sooner, it was evident to all that his throws were off and that he couldn't run after that first hit. Not for a moment saying that we would have won with Cousins, but it might have been less hopeless. Our defense let us down badly after the first quarter.

All credit to Wilson, who had a great game. The Hawks were deserving and worthy winners tonight, goddamnit. I hope Atlanta murder them.

I was not happy to see RGIII go down at the end. Never like to see that sort of thing. Up until that point you have to go with RG. All the analysts on FOX and NFL Network agreed with that. Part of what I thought did in the Skins was getting away Morris and the run game. Then maybe RG would have been more effective.

Skins will look better next week after Hawks murder the Dirty Birds.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I too cringed when RGIII went down. But Cousins would not have led them to a win. Seattle was just a better team. Very stiff and tough defense, and their offense very efficient and Russell Wilson showed great poise and played an awesome game, that block he threw for Lynch epitomized his determination. I still like Seattle next week to take out Atlanta. It's going to be tough playing in there, but the Seahawks are red hot, very physical (two things the Falcons aren't) and playing with total confidence now.

Amster, you should hope it's Seattle who murders the Falcons, as it gives your team more value, knowing you lost to the best team in the NFL (maybe).

I thought the Baltimore-Indy game was pretty good for a half but the Colts just made too many mistakes. Too many dropped balls, penalties. The other games were less interesting.

I'll talk about next week's games soon, but am going to stick with what I wrote before. Sea, SF, NE and Den should all win.

 

[Oldman]

I too cringed when RGIII went down. But Cousins would not have led them to a win. Seattle was just a better team. Very stiff and tough defense, and their offense very efficient and Russell Wilson showed great poise and played an awesome game, that block he threw for Lynch epitomized his determination. I still like Seattle next week to take out Atlanta. It's going to be tough playing in there, but the Seahawks are red hot, very physical (two things the Falcons aren't) and playing with total confidence now.

Amster, you should hope it's Seattle who murders the Falcons, as it gives your team more value, knowing you lost to the best team in the NFL (maybe).

I thought the Baltimore-Indy game was pretty good for a half but the Colts just made too many mistakes. Too many dropped balls, penalties. The other games were less interesting.

I'll talk about next week's games soon, but am going to stick with what I wrote before. Sea, SF, NE and Den should all win.

Lynch was the key; he didn't lose any faith and kept dragging half of Washington's defensive line with him. But for a fumble and dropped pass this game would have resembled the other recent blowouts and RGIII wasn't playing defense....
It will be great to see both of these quarterbacks mature into some sort of rivalry over time. Whether scrambling quarterbacks can survive is another thing altogether. In commentary Trent Dilfer pointed out that any seriously great QB learns to adjust his game to the level of "nicks" he's sustained.
Going forward Seattle's defensive strategy better adjust quicker if they plan to go deep; you can't spot SF or Denver 14 points and expect to come back.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I too cringed when RGIII went down. But Cousins would not have led them to a win....

Amster, you should hope it's Seattle who murders the Falcons, as it gives your team more value, knowing you lost to the best team in the NFL (maybe).

Agree Cousins would not have helped. Inserting Cousins, who did not take the bulk of reps during the week, would have made Seattle's decisions on defense that much easier by not having to worry about the QB scrambling. And it would have been easier for Seattle to do things defensively to confuse Cousins. Even with an injured RG, he was still getting 8 to 10 yards on a gimpy leg, which was still something of worry for Seattle. Inserting Cousins would have let Seattle forget about that concern. You will hear a different opinion if you read commentary of some media ppl (e.g. Dan Graziano of ESPN, who says Shanny made a mistake keeping Griff in the game). But Graziano prolly did not play much organized football in his life. All the Fox and NFL network analysts I referred to in my earlier post are ALL either ex-NFL players or coaches who thought you keep Griff in the game.

Other than that, I wish I could be a fly on wall around Brian Billick, who said Seattle would be one and done. I will give him credit though because he did not just jump on the Seahawk bandwagon like so many other media ppl. Think about this... two weeks ago in the SNF game with SF at Seattle, announcer Al Michaels said Seattle might as well be located in Bulgaria as far as East Coast media is concerned. I think it is funny how Seattle has gone from that to being media darlings in 2 weeks. (No joke - on NFL radio last week SEA was called media darlings). For Seattle, it is actually better they be considered from Bulgaria, which contributes to that chip on their shoulders.

On who murders who... I was thinking besides value, it would be more of a gauge where the Redskins stand compared to other elite teams in the league if Seattle beats Atlanta.

Lynch was the key; he didn't lose any faith and kept dragging half of Washington's defensive line with him. But for a fumble and dropped pass this game would have resembled the other recent blowouts and RGIII wasn't playing defense....

Going forward Seattle's defensive strategy better adjust quicker if they plan to go deep; you can't spot SF or Denver 14 points and expect to come back.

Seattle defense must adjust to play Atlanta. All the talk about the Skins HC making a mistake keeping RG in that game is overshadowing another glaring Skins coaching mistake that I am not going to mention now. Only after the ATL game will I MAYBE mention it, AND ONLY will I mention it if ATL catches on. (You never know, maybe ATL coaches/players actually read this forum )

 

[Oldman]

I met a guy at an East Coast Builder's convention ten years ago that asked where I was from. "Seattle". Where's that? "Washington". Love those Redskins....

Seattle adjusted to the running game quickly if you think running Morris more was the answer. They've had Gore and a few more to contend with so assuming they aren't resourceful enough to handle that would be shortsighted.
What they haven't faced is a Peyton Manning.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I met a guy at an East Coast Builder's convention ten years ago that asked where I was from. "Seattle". Where's that? "Washington". Love those Redskins....

Seattle adjusted to the running game quickly if you think running Morris more was the answer. They've had Gore and a few more to contend with so assuming they aren't resourceful enough to handle that would be shortsighted.
What they haven't faced is a Peyton Manning.

Oooooooow. That's too funny! I love those Skins too

It does have to do with Morris, but like I said, I'll have to wait till after the game next week.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, one could argue that if we see a Denver-Seattle SB that PM hasn't seen a defense like Seattle's.

Speaking of, here some thoughts on Seattle at Atlanta. First, bad news for the Seahawks, SE Chris Clemons is out the rest of the year with a torn ACL. He was the teams best pass rusher. But the Hawks may be able to recover, rookie LB/DE Bruce Irvin has been increasingly impressive, and played great last week, including an athletic sack of RG3. Rookie DE Greg Scruggs has also been itching to play more, and will now get his chance. But neither are really run stoppers, and expect ATL to shove Michael Turner and Jaquizz Rodgers off tackle as much as possible, to force the Seahawks safetys up more. That could be the game right there, if ATL can run some, and slow Seattle's pass rush, and throw the ball against Seattle's physical secondary. On the other side of the ball, look for Seattle to try to shove Lynch down Atlanta's throats all day long. If they can, and the game is close late, this could be the ball game. I think Seattle has a more prepared and inventive coach in Carroll than the Falcons do in Smith, who is too conservative and lost too many big games. The deciding factors may be how much Clemons loss hurts Seattle, and which Atlanta team shows up. The one who demolished the Giants, or the one who couldn't beat TB or Carolina and barely beat Arizona?

I'll get to the other games later.

Meanwhile, that BCS game was a total turd. The NCAA badly needs to eliminate the stupid BCS and get an 8-team playoff going. Even a four team playoff would be better. It's pretty apparent that Oregon is the 2nd best team in college, and once again, we'll never know if they could have beaten Alabama.

 

[pmcg76]

Well, one could argue that if we see a Denver-Seattle SB that PM hasn't seen a defense like Seattle's.

Speaking of, here some thoughts on Seattle at Atlanta. First, bad news for the Seahawks, SE Chris Clemons is out the rest of the year with a torn ACL. He was the teams best pass rusher. But the Hawks may be able to recover, rookie LB/DE Bruce Irvin has been increasingly impressive, and played great last week, including an athletic sack of RG3. Rookie DE Greg Scruggs has also been itching to play more, and will now get his chance. But neither are really run stoppers, and expect ATL to shove Michael Turner and Jaquizz Rodgers off tackle as much as possible, to force the Seahawks safetys up more. That could be the game right there, if ATL can run some, and slow Seattle's pass rush, and throw the ball against Seattle's physical secondary. On the other side of the ball, look for Seattle to try to shove Lynch down Atlanta's throats all day long. If they can, and the game is close late, this could be the ball game. I think Seattle has a more prepared and inventive coach in Carroll than the Falcons do in Smith, who is too conservative and lost too many big games. The deciding factors may be how much Clemons loss hurts Seattle, and which Atlanta team shows up. The one who demolished the Giants, or the one who couldn't beat TB or Carolina and barely beat Arizona?

I'll get to the other games later.

Meanwhile, that BCS game was a total turd. The NCAA badly needs to eliminate the stupid BCS and get an 8-team playoff going. Even a four team playoff would be better. It's pretty apparent that Oregon is the 2nd best team in college, and once again, we'll never know if they could have beaten Alabama.

Thought the NCAA were introducing a 4 team play-off in 2014-15, think I read it on wikipedia recently. Let me say as a non-American but football fan who has only a passing knowledge of college football, it just seems to be the strangest, most confusing sports competition ever. I have had it explained to me numerous times and read the wikipedia pages but it still confuses the hell out of me. OK, the #1 & #2 teams play in the BCS game but then how did Florida #3 play Louisiana who were just a top 20 side in the Sugar Bowl!!!
Will have to get the brother(UF alumni) to explain it to me again when he gets here.

 

[Oldman]

Thought the NCAA were introducing a 4 team play-off in 2014-15, think I read it on wikipedia recently. Let me say as a non-American but football fan who has only a passing knowledge of college football, it just seems to be the strangest, most confusing sports competition ever. I have had it explained to me numerous times and read the wikipedia pages but it still confuses the hell out of me. OK, the #1 & #2 teams play in the BCS game but then how did Florida #3 play Louisiana who were just a top 20 side in the Sugar Bowl!!!
Will have to get the brother(UF alumni) to explain it to me again when he gets here.

That would make your brother the one genius who can say it works and how. Somehow the East Coast press bias manages to exert itself no matter what...