National Football League

[Semper Fidelis]

If I get you correct, you think "late peaking/hot-december-teams" have a better chance to win a SB than lets say one that started hot & faded (but still made the playoffs)?
I highly doubt! Think a "quick & dirty study" is up? How we go? Looking at all SB winning teams December record vs their September-November record? Is there a thinking error, or is that the correct question asked? If so, I would do it.

My expectation: There is no "hot December" teams winning the SBs more often than "normal" or even "cold" teams. I think it´s just another NFL myth. Not to be mistaken with teams that hit (lucky) streaks in the playoffs. The difference is: Streaks in January can win you a Superbowl (by the nature of it). Streaks in December not, because there is no guarantee that such a luck streak prolongs to the next week. It can even out anytime, after one game, two games, three, five, whatever.



I fear not, as much as I like the Eagles and Kelly. Foles didn´t only regress to the mean (as expected by Oldman (?) and me last season), he regressed crushing down... The Eagles are 25th in Int-Pct., after Foles being 2nd last year. Behind McCown BTW. Just underlines once more that Ints (outside of desperation mode ones) are random as I preach since years.
To really pick out QBs who might be good at preventing Ints (like McNabb), or the opposite (TheSiz), you need a great amount of sample size to see if there is a pattern or not.

But more important: The Eagles are not great on either pass offense or defense (both in the middle of the pack right now). Alarm signals on.
And what the heck happened to "my coach" (Alpe: ) Kelly? Is there a NFL clinic that has a certain etiquette, that you have to transform into a coward?
Kicking the late FG on 4&1, and OFC losing the game is ugly but maybe debattable. But what is not, is to punt with 6 seconds left in the 1st half on the opp 44 yL. Let your QB heave a HM (Foles showed his arm once more in this very game, connecting on a 70 (!!) yards ball in the air TD) and the worst outcome is a EZ-Int. Or try a short sideline pass & then kick a long FG. Or even try a draw. But punting in such a situation is pure & utter cowardice. I am shocked Kelly did it. I hope this loss told him a lesson. I´ll watch out if he transformed into any other coach saving ass, or if he is still the special one...



Guess what? I loved it too. Was cheering for all of them. Good old HFA beat the well thought and computerized picks again.
But TBH, the clock changing saved me. I don´t know who the early game big away favos were, but I certainly would have picked some home teams wrong.



I love arena football played outside in the cold. Love those 50something 20something scores. It´s soo cute.
Serious now: Amazing how Belichick did conjure another competitive team out of a hat. He even improves from his high standard. As last year, it´s playing with mediocre at best WRs, and still blowing off opponents. Wow!



Not me. I mean it´s good old butter ball after all. The version that truly thinks you can be successful without a QB/offense.
BTW, butter ball II almost lost it for the Saints, if there was no high octance NO offense. All those Ryans... just can shake my head in disbelief that they get high paid jobs.



Yeah, I finally won with the Seahawks in "sure lose ball"... sarcasm.



LOL. A nice one...
I wonder, together with, mildly said, Reids conservative play calling... skip that. Better: Be sure KC won´t go anywhere deep in the playoffs with that super duper dink and dunk stuff. Even though, 24/28 looks great I have to admit.

I have to ask. Where did the clock's change or the time change? I saw you mention it in a couple of posts including this one.

 

[Semper Fidelis]

I don't believe what I've just seen. Gobsmacked.

Nice win!

Since I don't like them it was especially nice to watch them lose and a west texas qb done them in! haha

I guess jerrry botox turned the bottle up last night after that. He probably needed a bottle of Tylenol this morning.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I have to ask. Where did the clock's change or the time change? I saw you mention it in a couple of posts including this one.

All of Western Europe changed last Saturday night. I believe you folks will be changing this coming Sat. night.

Foxxy - I'm surprised that you were surprised about the early Wembley game. I warned about in red a few days earlier.

Alpe - thank you for that excellent post at the top of this page. A pleasure to read. *tips hat*

 

[Tank Engine]

I have to ask. Where did the clock's change or the time change? I saw you mention it in a couple of posts including this one.

The clocks changed in Europe. It's always on the last Sunday in October (so before you on the other side of the pond).

I guessed that the Skins would raise their game against the Cowboys, but I was still shocked. I assumed that the Cardinals would be the team to exploit the weaknesses of the Dallas secondary and am surprised that the Cowboys did not adjust to the Skins blitz tactics. I also wonder about the decision to bring Romo back on. But hats off to McCoy for a very good performance.

It was an interesting weekend with a number of QBs making hay and some really bizarre play calling. Apart from the Phillies punting with seconds to go in the first half, Roethlisberger tried a punt on 4th and 4 with 35 seconds left in the first half, which was blocked. I know there are quite a few options in such a situation and would say that if you don't trust your kicker at that distance, then you just go for it. I can't see the advantage of the QB punting from the shotgun in that position. If it works, you pin the opponent in its 20 and a drive for a field goal becomes unlikely in such a situation. But punting from a standard formation, you would expect the same result, so why take the risky option? (the commentator noted before the snap that Ben was further behind the line than normal, so it was a planned play).

As far as I can see, if your QB can punt then the only time it makes any sense is when you are at 3rd and pretty darn long in your own half. If I remember correctly, Randall Cunningham did a couple of long punts from such a position. Going back further, Danny White of the Cowboys did a bit of punting.

Anyway, looking forward to the Broncos vs Pats (the Gronk is back ) and the Cardinals vs Cowboys next weeked.

Edit: On December form. In some cases when a time has ensured homefield advantage with a couple of weeks to go, they will ease up a bit/give key players a break. This sometimes makes it difficult to say how well a team is really performing going into the stretch. Such teams are also obviously strong SB contenders.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Speaking of running backs being replaceable, according to Jay Glazier, who seems to get better tips than anyone, Marshawn Lynch will not be with the Seahawks next season. No surprise at all to me. The only question is that does the money all go into Russell Wilson's pocket, or in other needed areas (OL, WR, DL).

I guessed that the Skins would raise their game against the Cowboys, but I was still shocked. I assumed that the Cardinals would be the team to exploit the weaknesses of the Dallas secondary and am surprised that the Cowboys did not adjust to the Skins blitz tactics.

I heard Boomer Esiason talk about the game and he brought something up. He said in the last two drives with Weeden in at QB, the Cowboys left either Whitten in at TE on the line, or a RB in the backfield to block, or both, helping protect against the blitz. When Romo came back in, they didn't do that, figuring they had Romo back and he could scramble better. He also said that on the final drive, Romo was obviously skittish and the last play he ducked out of a phantom blitz, when Washington only rushed 1 extra LB. Esiason also said that in the last two drives the Cowboys only ran the ball 1 time, an 8 yard gain by Murray.

But let's give Washington most of the credit here. They adjusted better and came to win.

Anyway, looking forward to the Broncos vs Pats (the Gronk is back ) and the Cardinals vs Cowboys next weekend.

Me too. But I don't see Dallas getting past Arizona. I also think Denver is playing so well, and despite Jeffery Gorman's opinion, I'm not completely sold on New England being as great as Patriot teams of past. Gronk was a men among boys last week though. Amazing.

On December form. In some cases when a time has ensured homefield advantage with a couple of weeks to go, they will ease up a bit/give key players a break. This sometimes makes it difficult to say how well a team is really performing going into the stretch. Such teams are also obviously strong SB contenders.

You know, I wrote what I did and didn't put enough thought into it. The fact is, there's exceptions to every rule, and history on this isn't conclusive at all. Teams like the 1996 Broncos, 1998 Vikings, 2005 Colts, 2010 Patriots, a few Chargers teams. Very hot at the end of the season, looked certain to go far, and didn't even get to the Superbowl. Some of those teams were eliminated in the first playoff game they played.

Regarding the Ryan brothers (you might as well toss Wade Phillips in that pile too) and their coaching, the NFL isn't any more immune to nepotism than any other industry. It mostly exists in coaching, as you can mask the mistakes better perhaps, but does anyone really think there would have been the hype surrounding Eli Manning if his name and lineage were different? I guess my point is that virtually every QB who has played under Rex Ryan has actually regressed. Geno Smith isn't the first. I could even argue that both Tim Tebow and Greg McElroy would still be in the league if they had never worn a Jets uniform.

 

[Merckx index]

Survival: JAX

Past picks: MI*, NYJ, Min, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*, BAL

Elimination: Adding TB and MIN

NYG, JAX, KC, MI, BUF, StL, OAK, TE, CLE, WASH, Pitt, NYJ, NO, HOU, TB, MIN

 

[The Hitch]

For this week.

2 more teams that won't win the superbowl- halfway stage so have to start taking sine risks. 1 Panthers have a good shot at winning their division, but I think the team is worse than last year and can't see them winning 2 away games at the likes of Az or Phille or GB. 2 los gigantes. I wanted to see them lose 1 more before ruling them out but I'm running out of names so...

A team that will lose this week, Rrrraiders. Lock of the year really.

To update my picks then.

Elimination Football
Hitch - Jax, Cle, Oak, Stl, Mia, TB, Tenn, Buff, NYJ, Wash, Atl, Min, Hou, ChiThis week: NYG, Car

Reverse Survival Football™.

Hitch - Jax, Jets, Minn, Tenn, Wash,Dal*, ATL, Chi This week: oak

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Elimination Football®.

NYG, Cle, Jax, StL, TB, Mia, NYJ, Minn, Tenn, Buf, Chi, Wash. This week: Atlanta, Houston

For Survival Football™.

Indy, KC, Minn, Tenn, NYJ, Dal*, NYG, Wash* this week: St. Louis

Tonight's Game:

NO@CAR

 

[ToreBear]

Elimination Football®.

Oak, Jax, Tenn, KC, Hou, TB, Stl, Wash, NYJ, Min, Cle, Chi new picks: Atl, NYG

For Survival Football™.

NY Giants, Chicago*, Pitt*, Tenn, Ari, Dal*, NYJ, SD new pick:Stl

 

[Eshnar]

CAR ftw tonight.

 

[Amsterhammer]

NO @ CAR

Saints to snap their away loss streak.

Elimination Football:

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Amsterhammer - Washington, Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Sandy Eggo, Oakland, Jax, Tampa Bay, Houston, Atlanta, Minnesoda, Titans, Rams, Miami, NYJ, Bears, Browns

On3m@nmy -
Glenn -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie
Chewy -
Sciocco -
Pricey Sky -
Tonebear -

For Survival Football, you must pick a team you think will lose this weekend. You cannot select them again for the rest of the season. Here are last week's picks. Please help fill in the blank if you picked and I missed it.

Alpe -
Foxxy -
Glenn -
Amsterhammer - (missed pick) Sandy Eggo, (one strike), Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cowgirls (strike 2) Rams (and that was strike 3) Titans, NYJ
On3m@nmy -
Hitch -
Tricycle -
Merckx -
Oldman -
Leftover Pie -
Chewy -

 

[leftover pie]

For Elimination Football® this week:

Carolina - I think they'll make the playoffs, but they're not the real deal

Indianapolis - not with that D

To add to my list:

NYG / Washington / NYJ / Dallas /Jacksonville / Minnesota / St Louis / Oakland / Miami / Tampa Bay / Atlanta / Pittsburgh / Cleveland / Cincinnati


For Reverse Survival Football™ (Loser Bowl):

Buccaneers

my current score: 6 (+1 bonus doughnut point)

Teams used: Titans*, Chargers*, Washington, Jacksonville, Jets(0), Raiders, 49ers, Rams

6 in a row, pushing for 7!!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

CAR tonight to win

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Not-so-sure-losers anymore (IOW opponents of the Seahawks)/Survival: I go with OAK this week... Now that would be something. Really something. Extra excellent: The Raiders win at Seatlle and fully expose the fake/fluke/cheat season of the Seahawks of last year. Will root hard for the unimaginable to happen. At least let me dream for one quarter.
(picked so far; Indy, KC, TEN, PHI, TB, DAL*, SL*, CAR)

Elimination; WAS & ARZ goes as my surprise pick of the week. OK, not for me. They got lucky in the luck departement (speak turnovers), otherwise field a bad pass defense, a ugly back-up QB and a average aging starting QB. Can´t imagine such team winning the SB (DEN, OAK, JAX, SL, TB, MIN, ATL, CHI, NO, NYJ, SEA, BUF, TEN, MIA so far)

* = picks lost
italic = opponents of SEA

Sunday/Monday game picks: all home teams, no exception ...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Bonus prediction: NE 35, DEN 7... You know, nervousness and all... wobbling ducks come to my mind right now... it´s like a high pressure playoff-game. Thus, PM going 14/35 128 0/2 for the first shock loss this year (the 2nd will be the last playoff game by the Broncos).

 

[The Hitch]

Speaking of the raiders it would be sad if they go 16-0 because they are not that bad and looking at their schedule they've been truly ****ed.

So far they have only played 1 team which presently has a losing record and that was the jets half the world away in new York. All the other teams have a winning record except for Houston which is at .500. Their home games were against first the Texans -sandwiched between 2 matches on the east coast, and then a "home game" at Wembley against the mighty impressive dolphins who were about 4000 miles closer to home than the raiders. They then faced the 4-1 sand chargers and 5-1 Arizona cardinals and run both close.

And for the rest of the season they have only 1 team presently with a losing record left to play -the rams.

And unfortunately, that game is away as well.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Bonus prediction: NE 35, DEN 7... You know, nervousness and all...

Wow! I'm leaning the opposite way! I'm thinking that the Patriots pass defense has been performing with smoke and mirrors, and getting away with it as the offense has been playing so well, and they've faced a lot of weak opposition. Now, the Patriots face a solid defense, and a team with a passing offense. I'll say Den 38, NE 23.

Don't get me wrong though, there's plenty of time for PM and Denver to fold late in the season.

Speaking of the raiders it would be sad if they go 16-0.

That would be 0-16. And I don't think they will. But otherwise, you are right. I only hope that when they do finish 2-14 that Derek Carr, Kalil Mack and the others can handle a losing season with a disorganized front office, coaching turmoil and uncertain future.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Don't get me wrong though, there's plenty of time for PM and Denver to fold late in the season.

Maybe I got a little bit sentimental. First I remembered last years game vs NE (the one in Boston), and then all memories of PMs blunders vs NE came back (plus his high pressure playoff meltdowns in general)... So may I am early, but OTOH, I got a feeling it´s time for his first down-to-earth-shock this year.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The weather forecast for the Boston area is now showing it to be cool and breezy after a winter-like morning, so we could see a repeat of last year's game where Manning simply couldn't throw the ball in the wind worth a darn. But I'm still sticking with Denver to win.

I was flat out wrong on the Saints beating the Panthers. That was the NO team we expected to see, but the Panthers look lost. Let's see how these pan out:

TB@CLE - Browns improve to 5-3?!
ARI@DAL - Changed pick Sunday AM, with Romo out.
PHI@HOU - Almost picked the Texans with Clowny back.
NYJ@KC - Chiefs defense will mean misery for Vick.
JAX@CIN - Bengals still good, and at home.
SD@MIA - Tough call. Chargers lack deep threat, and Fins defense okay.
WAS@MIN - Went with home team. Skins due for a letdown after last week.
STL@SF - 49ers still a good team, and at home.
DEN@NE - See above.
OAK@SEA - Point spread is Sea -16. I would put money on Oakland to cover that.
BAL@PIT - Big Ben, Part 2? Tough game to call though.
IND@NYG - The Giants are tailor made to lose this.

 

[Amsterhammer]

NO @ CAR
TB @ CLE
ARI @ DAL - could easily go the other way.
PHI @ HOU
NYJ @ KC - banker
JAX @ CIN - pretty much of a banker.
SD @ MIA - the Bolts always kill me.
WSH @ MIN - only because I would shoot myself if I didn't, and they did.
STL @ SF
DEN @ NE - on the assumption that Peyton's roll will prevent the choke.
OAK @ SEA - got to be a home win, shirley?
BAL @ PIT - letting my heart rule my head
IND @ NYG

 

[Tank Engine]

I heard Boomer Esiason talk about the game and he brought something up. He said in the last two drives with Weeden in at QB, the Cowboys left either Whitten in at TE on the line, or a RB in the backfield to block, or both, helping protect against the blitz. When Romo came back in, they didn't do that, figuring they had Romo back and he could scramble better. He also said that on the final drive, Romo was obviously skittish and the last play he ducked out of a phantom blitz, when Washington only rushed 1 extra LB. Esiason also said that in the last two drives the Cowboys only ran the ball 1 time, an 8 yard gain by Murray.

Pure genius. They find a solution and then throw it in the dustbin, since Romo was obviously doing fine

Me too. But I don't see Dallas getting past Arizona. I also think Denver is playing so well, and despite Jeffery Gorman's opinion, I'm not completely sold on New England being as great as Patriot teams of past. Gronk was a men among boys last week though. Amazing.

I agree with Amsterhammer that it should be a close game. The Cards will control Murray rather than stop him and Dallas should be able to move the ball through the air (whoever starts at QB). On the other hand, Durant is out and the Cards could well exploit weaknesses in the Dallas defence. They're also good at making turnovers. These two things probably give them the edge.

As for Denver at NE. Denver have the most balanced team in the league. The return of the Gronk and homefield advantage should make NE competitive, but I wouldn't pick against Denver at the moment.

Edit: To Alpe - Hey, you've just picked the Cowboys Am I missing something, because from your quoted post, it seemed that you favoured the Cards, even if Romo were fit.

 

[Eshnar]

Foxxy, why you no post statistics of our pics anymore?

TB @ CLE
ARI @ DAL
PHI @ HOU
NYJ @ KC
JAX @ CIN
SD @ MIA
WSH @ MIN
STL @ SF
DEN @ NE
OAK @ SEA
BAL @ PIT
IND @ NYG

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Edit: To Alpe - Hey, you've just picked the Cowboys Am I missing something, because from your quoted post, it seemed that you favoured the Cards, even if Romo were fit.

I am now changing my pick, and choosing Arizona. Romo is OUT. Now, one guy doesn't make a team, and Weeden is a Jeckel/Hyde QB, but he has a strong arm and I'm hoping the Cowboys throw deep more than usual. But it's going to be interesting.

Agree with Foxxy and the others on turnovers. TV people like to make a big deal out of +/- turnover ratios, but that is an almost meaningless factor when looking into the future. You have to look at each and every turnover in order to get a real analysis of it. Only a few of them come from defensive brilliance. Many turnovers are things like late game desperation throws, slippery ball snaps or handoffs, tipped passes, etc. No one can plan for that or count on it.

Yep, right now Denver is the best team in football, and I think that will be the case for another month, even if they lose today. I live about 2 hours from Foxboro and I can tell you the weather right now is downright nasty. Cold rain, and swirly winds, very blustery with high gusts at times. But it's supposed to let up some late. This all obviously helps New England...right?

 

[Tank Engine]

Agree with Foxxy and the others on turnovers. TV people like to make a big deal out of +/- turnover ratios, but that is an almost meaningless factor when looking into the future. You have to look at each and every turnover in order to get a real analysis of it. Only a few of them come from defensive brilliance. Many turnovers are things like late game desperation throws, slippery ball snaps or handoffs, tipped passes, etc. No one can plan for that or count on it.

This is very true. Turnovers are great for "predicting what happens in the past" because a) a "random turnovers" may decide the result of a game, b) teams that are losing will take more risks and thus "meaningless turnovers" resulting from hail Maries will appear on the losing side's account. Hence, Arizona have a great record, although the yardage stats say that it shouldn't be that great. (although that is a simplification of the story)

What does that mean for the future though? Turnovers are pretty rare and thus relative errors in estimation of their frequency will be very high (especially considering the number of factors involved). In my prediction of the Cardinals-Cowboys result, it was almost a case of tossing a coin. The teams are pretty well matched, I asked myself who is likely to make the big play(s)? Such plays may or may not happen and quite often the other team gets them. Even if you predict "optimally" in such cases, the effect on your prediction rate is virtually zero.

As I write this the Cowboys take the lead with an interception (shows what I know )

 

[leftover pie]

I've been watching what I can of the Broncos Pats game, the Broncos are getting dominated but both teams are moving the ball so easily through the air I feel like I'm watching garbage time.